Market Overview - The glass and fiberglass sector increased by 0.07% on January 14, with Jiuding New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4126.09, down 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14248.6, up 0.56% [1] Stock Performance - Jiuding New Materials (002201) closed at 12.52, up 10.02% with a trading volume of 722,900 shares and a transaction value of 879 million [1] - International Composites (301526) closed at 7.25, up 3.72% with a trading volume of 1,466,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.059 billion [1] - China Glass (600176) closed at 17.56, down 0.57% with a trading volume of 485,300 shares [1] - Other notable stocks include Zhongcai Technology (002080) at 36.39, up 2.22%, and Honghe Technology (603256) at 36.08, up 1.29% [1] Capital Flow - The glass and fiberglass sector saw a net inflow of 40.23 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 13.7 million [2] - However, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 178 million [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Jiuding New Materials had a net inflow of 3.09 billion from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 1.34 billion from speculative funds [3] - Zhongcai Technology saw a net inflow of 65.48 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 44.13 million from speculative funds [3] - International Composites had a net inflow of 33.60 million from institutional investors, while speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 31.69 million [3]

Summary of China Jushi 2026 Business Outlook Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi (600176.SS) - **Date of Call**: January 12, 2026 - **Participants**: Mr. Ding Chengche (Board Secretary), Ms. Xu Mengdan (IR Director) Key Industry Insights - **Cyclical Outlook**: Management anticipates 2024 as the cycle trough, 2025 as a recovery year, and 2026 as a favorable year with resilient demand and moderated supply growth [3][15] - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: Expected supply growth of approximately 500,000 tons in 2026 compared to around 1 million tons in 2025. Demand growth in 2026 is estimated at around 6%, with potential upside to 8-9% [3][15] Financial Performance - **Fiberglass Profitability**: Profitability has stabilized at a higher level, with net profit per ton consistently exceeding RMB 800, currently around RMB 900-1000. Most peer producers are near breakeven [4][12] - **E-fabric Demand**: A broad-based recovery in E-fabric demand has been observed, with profitability exceeding RMB 1/sqm. Management expects to maintain this level in 2026 [5][13] Strategic Initiatives - **Capex Discipline**: Capital expenditures remain stable at RMB 3-5 billion, with maintenance capex capped at approximately RMB 1 billion [11] - **Low DK Fabrics**: Progress is being made in low DK products, with ongoing customer validation. Challenges remain in yield rates and process stability [8] Market Outlook - **Overseas Demand**: After a weak 2025 due to geopolitical factors, overseas demand is expected to recover in 2026, with exports guided at approximately 1.1 million tons and total shipments at around 3.3 million tons [9][10] - **US Plant Performance**: The US plant was loss-making in 2024 but significantly improved in 2025, with expected profitability in 2026 under current tariff conditions [10] Pricing Strategy - **Glassfiber Pricing**: Annual contract pricing is under negotiation, with moderate price increases expected. Jushi is avoiding aggressive price hikes to prevent triggering excess capacity [4][12] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: Include weaker-than-expected demand for glass fiber products, rising energy costs, and greater-than-expected capacity additions [15] - **Upside Risks**: Include better-than-expected demand and supply-side discipline that could help protect margins [15] Valuation - **Target Price**: The target price for Jushi is set at RMB 19.8/share, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8x on 2026 estimated net income [14] Conclusion - The call reinforces a more constructive medium-term outlook for China Jushi, with a recommendation to maintain a "Buy" rating based on the anticipated recovery and growth in demand for fiberglass and E-fabric products [1][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - Focus on upstream materials for commercial aerospace, with a strong recommendation for UTG glass due to its significant market potential [6][2] - The cement market is experiencing seasonal declines in shipments, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month [8] - For 2026, three main lines of opportunity are identified: stock chain, Africa chain, and AI chain [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement Market - After the New Year, domestic cement market demand continues to weaken due to factors like funding shortages and temperature drops, with key enterprises' shipment rates around 39%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month [8] - National cement prices have slightly declined, with price drops observed in regions like Zhejiang, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang, ranging from 10 to 30 yuan per ton [23] - The national average cement price is 357.26 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.32 yuan month-on-month [24] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market has seen a slight rebound in prices, driven by speculative demand, with a total inventory reduction of 183 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.40% [8][36] - The average price of glass is 61.99 yuan per weight box, up 0.05 yuan month-on-month, but down 12.44 yuan year-on-year [36] - The production capacity of float glass has decreased, with 209 out of 262 production lines operational, resulting in a daily melting capacity of 149,535 tons [8] Investment Opportunities - UTG glass is projected to have a demand of approximately 1.2 million square meters based on the forecast of 6,000 satellites launched annually, translating to a market space of 6 billion yuan [6] - Carbon fiber demand is estimated at around 1,000 tons for satellite applications, with high profit elasticity due to the use of high-modulus series [7] - The report highlights three main investment themes for 2026: optimizing demand and supply in the stock chain, leveraging growth in the African market, and capitalizing on the upgrade trend in AI electronic fabrics [9]

Market Performance - The glass and fiberglass sector increased by 0.71% on January 12, with Jinjing Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] Stock Performance - Jinjing Technology (600586) closed at 6.71, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 601,700 shares and a transaction value of 397 million [1] - Zaiseng Technology (603601) closed at 14.64, up 8.36% with a trading volume of 2,735,500 shares and a transaction value of 3.848 billion [1] - Other notable stocks include Jiuding New Materials (002201) at 12.13, up 4.30%, and Yaopi Glass (618009) at 8.88, up 3.62% [1] Capital Flow - The glass and fiberglass sector experienced a net outflow of 468 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 353 million [2] - The overall capital flow indicates that retail investors are more active in this sector compared to institutional investors [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Jinjing Technology had a net inflow of 156 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 79.41 million from speculative funds [3] - China Glass (600176) saw a net outflow of 16.75 million from institutional investors, while speculative funds had a net inflow of 27.23 million [3] - North Glass (002613) experienced a net outflow of 3.218 million from institutional investors, with a net inflow of 4.5235 million from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and engineering sector and the building materials sector [9] Core Insights - The construction activity indicators have shown significant improvement at the beginning of 2026, with increased operating rates for cement mills and concrete mixing stations, alongside a rise in building steel sales [12][20] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to see a surge in demand for high-temperature materials and perovskite materials due to the acceleration of satellite launches [12][13] - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy between emerging industries and traditional sectors in Q1 2026, with a focus on companies like Jinggong Steel Structure, Sichuan Road and Bridge, and China Nuclear Engineering [12][10] Summary by Sections Construction and Engineering - The construction sector is benefiting from improved PMI indicators and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with a focus on steel structures and fiberglass [12][13] - Key metrics include a national cement mill operating rate of 36.6%, up 6.6 percentage points month-on-month and 14.1 percentage points year-on-year [12] Building Materials - The report highlights a slight decrease in national cement prices by 0.1% to 358 CNY per ton, with a 38.7% shipment rate [20] - The average price of float glass is reported at 60 CNY per weight box, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.2% [21] Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - China National Materials (600970 CH) with a target price of 14.23 CNY and a "Buy" rating [10] - Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039 CH) with a target price of 13.48 CNY and a "Buy" rating [10] - Jinggong Steel Structure (600496 CH) with a target price of 5.75 CNY and a "Buy" rating [10] - Other recommended companies include China Glass (600176 CH), Oriental Yuhong (002271 CH), and Huaneng Renewables (600552 CH) [10][31]

Group 1: Electronic Yarn - The price of electronic yarn has increased, with G75 average price in China maintaining at 9377 yuan/ton, a nearly 1% increase month-on-month and an 11.31% increase year-on-year, driven by tight supply-demand dynamics in mid-to-high-end products [1] - The demand for high-end PCB is expected to support further price increases in the future [1] - Companies to watch include China Jushi (600176.SH) and China National Materials (002080.SZ) [1] Group 2: Cement Industry - The national cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with overall demand showing a downward trend, particularly in the housing market, while infrastructure demand is regionally differentiated [2] - Mid-term capacity in the cement industry is expected to decline under production restriction policies, leading to increased capacity utilization and profit elasticity [2] - Companies to focus on include Conch Cement (600585.SH) and Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) [2] Group 3: Glass Industry - The glass industry is experiencing a continuous decline in demand due to the impact of real estate, with traditional peak season orders under pressure and high inventory levels among intermediaries [2] - Despite some production lines undergoing maintenance, the overall supply-demand pressure remains, and prices are expected to stay low in the short term [2] - Flagship companies to monitor include Qibin Group (601636.SH) [2] Group 4: Glass Fiber Industry - Demand in the glass fiber sector is stable in wind power and thermoplastic fields, while traditional demand is slowing down [2] - The electronic yarn segment is performing well, driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for significant growth in low-dielectric products [2] - Companies to watch include China Jushi and China National Materials [2] Group 5: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price space due to years of competition [3] - The industry is strongly advocating for price increases and profit improvements, with multiple categories like waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards expected to issue price increase notices [3] - Companies to focus on include Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ), Sankeshu (603737.SH), Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ), and Tubao (002043.SZ) [3]

Group 1 - The company announced a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, proposing to grant a total of up to 34.5282 million shares, accounting for 0.86% of the total share capital, with an initial grant of 31.0754 million shares, representing 0.78% of the total share capital [1] - The performance assessment targets for the incentive plan include a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of non-recurring net profit of no less than 38.5%, 27%, and 22% for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, based on the 2024 non-recurring net profit [1] - The company aims to enhance its long-term growth confidence through this equity incentive plan [1] Group 2 - The supply of raw yarn is expected to grow at a rate of 5.8% in 2026, which is a slowdown compared to 2025, while demand for wind power yarn is anticipated to maintain strong resilience with a growth rate of 4.1% [2] - The price of fiberglass products has been adjusted upwards by 5%-10% following an initiative to oppose "involution" competition, indicating a potential price recovery in the market [2] - The overall supply-demand balance in the fiberglass industry is expected to support price recovery [2] Group 3 - The supply of electronic fabric is tight, with prices ranging from 4.2 to 4.65 yuan per meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.6% [3] - The production growth rate of electronic yarn is projected to be 6.1% in 2026, while demand is expected to grow at 6.6% due to increased utilization rates in CCL [3] - The industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand situation, which supports the potential for price increases [3] Group 4 - The demand for special electronic fabrics is significantly increasing due to enhanced terminal computing power, with the market space for special electronic fabrics estimated to reach approximately 17.8 billion yuan in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 205% [4] - The company is increasing its investment in high-end electronic-grade fiberglass research and production capacity, enhancing its ability to produce thin and ultra-thin fabrics [4] - The company is strengthening its technological barriers through the development and validation of low dielectric and low expansion products [4] Group 5 - The company is steadily advancing capacity expansion and technological transformation projects across its production bases, with significant upgrades planned for its production lines [5] - The company is focusing on three main product lines: wind power, thermoplastic short-cut, and electronic yarn, while also collaborating with downstream customers to develop composite materials for photovoltaic frames [5] - The company's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.51 billion, 4.80 billion, and 5.47 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on profitability [5]

Core Viewpoint - China Jushi's stock price has shown a positive trend with a 4.80% increase year-to-date and significant gains over various trading periods, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 9, China Jushi's stock price increased by 2.11%, reaching 17.92 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 5.10 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.72%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 717.36 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has risen 4.80% since the beginning of the year, with a 4.80% increase over the last five trading days, a 14.80% increase over the last 20 days, and a 12.49% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, China Jushi reported a revenue of 13.904 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.568 billion CNY, which is a 67.51% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 11.255 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.828 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for China Jushi reached 106,900, an increase of 3.74% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 3.61% to 37,436 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 371 million shares, a decrease of 33.246 million shares from the previous period [2].

Group 1 - The glass and fiberglass sector experienced a 0.44% increase on January 8, with Jiuding New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13959.48, down 0.51% [1] - Jiuding New Materials saw a closing price of 11.78, with a significant increase of 9.99%, and a trading volume of 1.1887 million shares, resulting in a transaction value of 1.368 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The glass and fiberglass sector had a net inflow of 465 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 290 million yuan [2] - The trading data indicates that Jiuding New Materials had a net inflow of 298 million yuan from main funds, representing 21.77% of its total trading volume [3] - Zhongcai Technology also showed a net inflow of 221 million yuan from main funds, accounting for 11.24% of its trading volume [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that China Jushi's first equity incentive plan is expected to enhance the company's medium to long-term development by motivating the management team and improving operational efficiency [1] Group 1: Equity Incentive Plan - The company has launched its first-ever equity incentive plan since its listing, covering a wide range of participants [1] - The incentive plan includes a net profit growth target, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for net profit from 2026 to 2028 set at no less than 38.5%, 27%, and 22% respectively [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Based on the 2024 net profit as a baseline, the projected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are estimated to be no less than 4.851 billion, 5.180 billion, and 5.603 billion respectively [1] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2026 to 2028 are projected to be 14, 13, and 12 times based on the market capitalization as of December 31, 2025 [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The industry is showing signs of recovery after hitting a bottom, and the company has a clear product structure advantage [1] - The company's entry into the high-end electronic fabric sector is expected to provide a significant growth opportunity, referred to as a "Davis double hit" [1] Group 4: Current Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 21, 18, and 17 times for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company [1]