Core Viewpoint - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo showcases the commitment of YTO Express to enhance its international supply chain capabilities and expand its global presence through strategic partnerships and innovative logistics solutions [1][4]. Group 1: Company Strategy - YTO Express is implementing a "1+7" global strategy, focusing on building a core hub at the Jiaxing Oriental Tian Di Port and establishing seven regional hubs overseas within the next three years [1][2]. - The company aims to enhance its core capabilities in air transport and overseas networks while collaborating with partners in trunk transportation and customs clearance [1][2]. Group 2: International Business Development - YTO Express is adopting a differentiated development strategy for its international business, targeting markets in Central Asia, Australia, Japan, South Korea, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [2][4]. - The Jiaxing Oriental Tian Di Port project, expected to be completed by 2025, will integrate multiple functions such as air cargo, bonded warehousing, customs services, and aircraft maintenance, significantly improving international logistics efficiency for Chinese enterprises [2]. Group 3: Innovation and Market Position - The company showcased innovative international logistics solutions tailored for high-end manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce, effectively meeting diverse customer needs [4]. - The launch of the "1+7" global strategy signifies a transformation of Chinese express logistics companies from mere transport service providers to global supply chain solution providers [4].

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The shipping industry is expected to see a divergence in freight rates, with crude oil rates softening while refined oil rates are recovering, indicating a potential bottoming out of oil shipping rates during the summer [1] - The current supply-demand dynamics suggest that marginal changes in demand could have a multiplier effect on freight rates, leading to a recommendation for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1] - The container shipping sector is facing pressure on profitability due to ongoing tariff policies and a subdued economic outlook in Europe and the US, with a recommendation to monitor COSCO Shipping Holdings for potential alpha opportunities [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector has entered the peak summer travel season, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 3.1% compared to the previous week, and overall flight volumes reaching 112.3% of 2019 levels [2] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, while the passenger load factor has improved by 1.4 percentage points to 84.1% [2] - Investment recommendations include closely tracking ticket price performance during the summer peak and considering opportunities in airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][5] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy released on July 1 aims to curb excessive competition in the express delivery sector, which is currently characterized by severe price competition [3] - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to significantly reduce costs for leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express, with potential cost savings of approximately 2000 yuan per vehicle per month for SF Express [3][4] - Investment recommendations focus on SF Express due to its strong recovery in revenue growth and cost-saving measures, while also monitoring ZTO Express and Yunda Holdings for potential opportunities [3][5][6] Group 4: Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand and high-dividend sectors, recommending companies with stable operations and controllable risks, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and China Southern Airlines [5] - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of 21.5% for the year, driven by strong demand from e-commerce platforms [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes and the stability of franchisees in the express delivery industry to capitalize on the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics industry [12] Core Insights - The logistics industry is experiencing a "DeepSeek moment" with significant technological breakthroughs across various segments, including branch, trunk, terminal, and management [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of adopting new technologies to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in the express delivery sector [11][28] Summary by Sections Introduction: The Arrival of the "DeepSeek Moment" in the Logistics Industry - The logistics industry is witnessing substantial advancements due to improved algorithm efficiency and rapid technological iterations, leading to significant breakthroughs in various operational segments [7][18] - Key drivers for these advancements include the massive scale of the Chinese express delivery market, intense competition, and high labor cost ratios [28] Branch Segment: The Growth Year for Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - Leading express companies are initiating a surge in unmanned logistics vehicle orders, driven by reduced core component costs and improved algorithm efficiency [8][33] - The monthly operational cost of unmanned logistics vehicles can be as low as 2000 yuan, significantly lower than the average monthly salary of drivers [33][40] Trunk Segment: Smart Assisted Driving Initiates Mass Production - Smart assisted driving trucks are being deployed on a large scale by leading express companies, addressing safety and cost issues in traditional trunk transportation [9][32] - The potential market space for smart trucks is substantial, with projected sales of 1.03 million heavy trucks in 2024 [9] Terminal Segment: Mode Transformation Drives Cost Reduction - Express companies are innovating their terminal operations to reduce costs significantly, with models like direct linking from transfer centers to terminal stations [10][32] - The report highlights that if the direct link ratio reaches 40%, terminal costs could be reduced by 0.12 yuan per package [10] Management Segment: Digital Decision-Making Promotes Cost Reduction - Leading companies are developing industry-specific AI models to enhance management efficiency and reduce operational costs [10][32] - The integration of big data and AI technologies is driving improvements in decision-making and resource utilization [10] Investment Recommendations: Technological Waves Reshape Logistics Costs - The report recommends prioritizing investments in direct logistics companies and leading express firms, as well as components and operators related to unmanned commercial vehicles [11][32] - Companies like SF Express and Aneng Logistics are highlighted as key players benefiting from these technological advancements [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in stock prices of major express delivery companies in the A-share market, such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, is attributed to the government's stance against "involution" in the industry, aiming to enhance regulation and service quality [1][13]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The State Post Bureau emphasized the need for unified regulations and opposition to "involution-style" competition, which has led to increased market interest in the express delivery sector [1]. - The express delivery industry has seen a decline in average revenue per ticket over the past three years due to intensified price competition and the trend of smaller e-commerce packages [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - By May 2025, YTO Express's average revenue per ticket is projected to drop from 2.42 yuan to 2.12 yuan, Shentong Express from 2.23 yuan to 1.95 yuan, and Yunda Express from 2.29 yuan to 1.92 yuan, reflecting a decline of 4% to 12% [4][6]. - YTO Express has maintained the highest average revenue per ticket in 2023, benefiting from high-end timely products and service quality improvements, while Yunda Express has the lowest due to management issues [6][10]. Group 3: Profitability Analysis - YTO Express leads in average profit per ticket due to effective cost management and synergy in air freight, while Shentong Express showed improvement in 2024, with profits rising from 0.019 yuan to 0.046 yuan due to reduced costs [8][10]. - The overall profit performance of these companies has been declining, with Yunda Express facing significant pressure from competition and cost management failures [8][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The express delivery sector has experienced a "volume increase, price drop" phenomenon, with a projected business volume of 1,750.8 billion pieces in 2024, a 32.6% increase from 2023 [9]. - Shentong Express is expected to have the fastest growth rate in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 29.83%, driven by capacity expansion and collaboration within the Alibaba ecosystem [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market's recent enthusiasm for YTO and Shentong Express stocks is seen as a reaction to long-standing industry pressures rather than fundamental changes in company performance [13]. - Both companies are positioned to benefit first if the government's anti-involution policies lead to tangible changes in the industry [13].

Group 1 - Major express delivery companies have removed the option for users to set "fire hydrant" as a delivery point in their WeChat mini-programs due to violations of fire safety laws [1][2] - Seven out of eight major express companies have corrected their practices, with only Cainiao Express yet to comply fully [1] - Companies like JD Express and SF Express have implemented warnings in their systems to inform users about the safety hazards of using "fire hydrant" as a delivery location [1][2] Group 2 - Some companies still retain options for "water meter box" and "electric meter box" in their delivery preferences, which may also pose safety risks [2] - Customer service representatives from various companies have indicated that delivery personnel are trained to avoid placing packages in unsafe locations, and will refuse requests to deliver to fire hydrants [3] - If customers insist on using "fire hydrant" for delivery, some companies will remind them of the safety risks, while others may allow for complaints if the delivery is not made as requested [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the need for the express delivery industry to shift towards high-quality development, as the State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition and aims to improve service quality [4] - The express delivery sector is currently experiencing a decline in per-package revenue, with major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong showing year-on-year decreases in revenue per package [4] - Jitu's Southeast Asian market has seen significant growth, with a total package volume of 7.392 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [5] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for growth [12] - The shipping sector is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with specific recommendations for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery market is facing intense competition, with major players experiencing a decline in revenue per package [4] - The report suggests that regulatory changes could help improve the situation by reducing low-cost competition and enhancing the performance of leading companies [4][12] Airline Industry - The airline sector is characterized by long-term low supply growth, but demand is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery [12] - Key companies to watch include China National Aviation Holding, Southern Airlines, and HNA Group [12] Shipping and Ports - The report indicates a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts [12] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for their growth potential in the shipping market [12] Road and Rail - The report notes that the Daqin Railway experienced a year-on-year decrease in freight volume in June 2025, while overall logistics operations remain stable [11][12] - Companies like Zhongyuan Expressway and Sichuan Chengyu are highlighted for their growth potential due to infrastructure developments [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for over 5% of the country's physical network retail sales [2][5] - The shift in consumer behavior from bulk purchasing to "small quantity, multiple times" is driven by smaller family structures and a faster-paced lifestyle, which enhances the demand for instant retail [5][23] - Instant retail is anticipated to drive growth in instant logistics, benefiting companies like SF Holding, and the deployment of smart delivery lockers is also expected to gain traction [2][5] Summary by Sections Instant Retail Emergence - Instant retail is experiencing explosive growth, with major players like JD and Alibaba investing heavily in this sector [15][19] - The transition from distant e-commerce to near-field retail reflects a strong consumer demand for instant gratification [16][23] Opportunities in Transportation and Logistics - The growth of instant retail is expected to stimulate the logistics sector, with a projected increase in online takeaway market size to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan by 2025, representing about 30% of China's dining consumption [43][48] - Instant delivery orders are projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, reaching 48.3 billion orders in 2024, driven by the expansion of flash warehouses and the need for efficient delivery solutions [49][52] Travel Chain Insights - Domestic passenger volume is showing a stable increase, with a 4% year-on-year rise in the week of July 11, while international passenger volume increased by 16% [64] - The average domestic ticket price has seen a slight decline of 6.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on short-term revenues despite improving demand [62][64] Maritime and Logistics Developments - The maritime sector is witnessing a rebound, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 9.7% to $27,000 per day, driven by active cargo demand in the Middle East [29][30] - The logistics sector is focusing on addressing "involution" in the express delivery market, with a 16.6% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume, indicating robust industry growth [6][20]

圆通速递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 7 月 10 日完成了 2025 年度第一期中期票据的发行，募集资金已于 2025 年 7 月 11 日全额到账， 发行结果如下： | 名称 | 圆通速递股份有限公司 2025 年度第一期中期票据 | 简称 | 25 圆通速递 MTN001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 102582821 | 期限 | 3 年 | | 起息日 | 2025 年 7 月 11 日 | 兑付日 | 2028 年 7 月 11 日 | | 计划发行总额 | 5 亿元 | 实际发行总额 | 5 亿元 | | 发行利率 | 1.98% | 发行价格 | 按面值 100 元发行 | | 簿记管理人 | | 招商银行股份有限公司 | | | 主承销商 | | 招商银行股份有限公司 | | | 联席主承销商 | | 上海银行股份有限公司、南京银行股份有限公司 | | 公司本期中期票据发行相关文件详见中国货币网（www.chinamoney.com.cn） 和上海清算所网站（www.shclearing.com.cn）。 特此公告。 圆通速递股份 ...

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and fluctuated, with the CSI 300 Transportation Index reported at 3840.29 points [1] - The CSI 300 Transportation Index has decreased by 0.50% over the past month, increased by 3.23% over the past three months, and has declined by 1.05% year-to-date [2] - The CSI 300 Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, with a base date of December 31, 2004, set at 1000.0 points [2] Industry Composition - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Transportation Index are: Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (26.22%), SF Holding (17.99%), COSCO Shipping Holdings (14.88%), Datong Railway (12.52%), China Eastern Airlines (5.08%), China Southern Airlines (4.84%), Air China (4.36%), Spring Airlines (4.17%), YTO Express (3.73%), and China Merchants Energy Shipping (3.07%) [2] - The market segments of the CSI 300 Transportation Index show that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 81.09%, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 18.91% [2] Sector Breakdown - The industry composition of the CSI 300 Transportation Index includes: railway transportation (38.74%), express delivery (21.72%), shipping (20.16%), and air transportation (19.38%) [3] - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [3] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI 300 Index samples [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [6][11]. Core Insights - The recent call from the State Post Bureau to combat "involution" in the industry is expected to improve the company's profitability by reducing price competition [7][11]. - The company has a competitive advantage in terms of scale and pricing power, with a significant increase in express delivery volume and a higher average revenue per package compared to peers [11]. - Profit forecasts for the company are optimistic, with expected net profits of RMB 41 billion, RMB 45 billion, and RMB 53 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth [11]. Company Overview - The company operates in the transportation industry, specifically in express delivery services [2]. - As of July 9, 2025, the company's A-share price was RMB 12.70, with a market capitalization of RMB 434.37 billion [2]. - The company has a strong market position, with a domestic service efficiency rate of 86.6% and a significant market share in express delivery [2]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 4,107 million in 2025, with an EPS of RMB 1.19 [10]. - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 57,684 million in 2023 to RMB 75,883 million in 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [15]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 11.74 in 2023 to 10.66 in 2025, suggesting an attractive valuation [10]. Market Dynamics - The express delivery industry is currently facing intense price competition, but regulatory measures from the State Post Bureau are anticipated to alleviate this pressure [11]. - The company's proactive investments in cargo aircraft and digitalization have enhanced its service quality and operational efficiency, positioning it favorably against competitors [11].