抓住化工涨价行情系列之一——染料 20260130 摘要 还原物市场供应紧张是染料涨价主因，主要生产商包括宁夏中胜新、龙 胜和闰土，但实际产能未完全释放，开工率不足 80%，导致市场对涨价 预期强烈。 博奥股份因库存不足率先提价并停产，加剧市场供应紧张，推动整体价 格上涨。龙胜、闰土等企业随后跟进涨价，头部企业协调一致或将进一 步推高市场价格。 分散染料市场中，龙胜侧重环保及高牢度产品，常规品盈利困难；润土 产能与龙胜相当，吉华较小；中圣新通过收购增加成品产能至约 2 万吨。 下游客户对当前染料涨价接受度尚可，因前期备货不足，只能接受新价 格。染厂库存普遍较低，多为即时调货，小幅涨价仍可承受。 H 酸等原材料也在涨价，部分大厂提前停产检修，可能与市场调控有关。 企业通过调整产量和价格应对市场需求变化，H 酸价格上涨若能维持， 成交价有望达到每吨 3.5 万元。 中盛新与龙胜存在竞争关系，曾导致分散染料价格下降。若两家公司达 成一致，分散染料价格或大幅上涨，头部企业的态度是未来涨价的重要 驱动因素。 还原物扩产困难，现有工艺存在能耗高、收率低等问题，且新增产能难 以获批。龙胜还原物基本自给自足，中盛新产能是龙胜 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the chemical industry, specifically focusing on the supply and pricing dynamics of H acid and active dyes, which are critical intermediates in the dye manufacturing process [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **H Acid Supply Tightness**: Major H acid production facilities, including Dabaidan Leqing Technology Co., Ltd. and Dabaidan Hexin Technology Co., Ltd., have undergone maintenance, leading to a supply shortage. The average market price of H acid increased by 0.63% (+250 CNY/ton) to 40,300 CNY/ton, while the average price of active dyes rose by 4.55% (+1,000 CNY/ton) to 23,000 CNY/ton [1]. - **Environmental and Safety Pressures**: The production of H acid faces significant environmental and safety challenges due to difficult wastewater treatment and hazardous reactions, resulting in the gradual elimination of many small and outdated production capacities [1]. - **Cost Transmission Mechanism**: Historical data indicates that during the 2019 Q1 incident, H acid prices reached 80,000 CNY/ton, causing active dye prices to spike to 33,000 CNY/ton. H acid consumption in active dye production is substantial, accounting for 30-50% of production costs, which facilitates effective cost transmission [2]. - **Production Capacity Concerns**: Current effective H acid production capacity is below 60,000 tons, with a supply gap exceeding 10%. The recent maintenance of two major H acid manufacturers may further reduce effective capacity by over 25% [2]. Potential Investment Opportunities - **Jinji Co., Ltd.**: With an active dye production capacity of 45,000 tons and H acid capacity of 5,000 tons, the company has a market capitalization of approximately 4.3 billion CNY. A 10,000 CNY/ton increase in active dye prices could contribute an estimated 400 million CNY to performance [3]. - **Runtu Co., Ltd.**: The company has an active dye production capacity of 100,000 tons and a disperse dye capacity of 118,000 tons, with a market capitalization of around 13.6 billion CNY. A 10,000 CNY/ton increase in active dye prices could yield an estimated 880 million CNY in performance [3]. - **Zhejiang Longsheng**: This company possesses 70,000 tons of active dye capacity and 140,000 tons of disperse dye capacity, along with H acid and related reductants. A 10,000 CNY/ton increase in active dye prices could lead to an estimated 620 million CNY in performance [3]. Additional Important Information - The ongoing environmental inspections and incidents, such as the fire at the Yadong Fine Chemical Plant in Inner Mongolia, may exacerbate supply pressures for H acid, further impacting the active dye market [2].

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 2 月 2 日 二月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、下游需求旺 盛，自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司。 行业动态 投资建议 风险提示 ◼ 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 强于大市 化工行业周报 20260201 国际油价上涨，分散染料、维生素 E 价格上涨 《化工行业 2026 年度策略》20260128 《化工行业周报 20260125》20260125 《化工行业周报 20260118》20260118 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：范琦岩 qiyan.fan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525040001 ◼ 本周（01.25-02.01）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 50 个品种价格上涨，22 个品种价格下 跌，2 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨基础化工 [Table_Title] 染料行业点评：底部多年，中间体以及染料 景气有望上行 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 根据百川盈孚，本周分散染料市场价格上涨，截至到目前，分散黑 ECT300%市场均价在 19 元 /公斤，较上周同期均价上涨 1 元/公斤，涨幅为 5.56%。活性染料市场走势上行，活性黑 WNN150%市场均价在 23 元/公斤左右，较上周同期均价上涨 1 元/公斤，涨幅为 4.55%。染料 中间体市场整体偏暖运行，原料价格增加，成本端支撑力度偏强，各企业上调产品对外报价， 市场成交价格随之小幅抬升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 基础化工 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 染料行业点评：底部多年，中间体以及染料景气 2] 有望上行 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525040004 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 马太 王呈 %% %% %% %% research.95579 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Insights - The dye industry is expected to experience an upward trend that may exceed market expectations, with price increases for various types of dyes ranging from 1,000 to 3,000 RMB. Key companies to watch include Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu Co., Jinchicken Co., and Jihua Group [2] - The PVC industry is accelerating its transition to mercury-free production, leading to the exit of small and medium-sized capacities. The price of PVC is anticipated to have upward recovery potential due to supply contraction and stable demand expectations. Companies to focus on include Xinjiang Tianye, Junzheng Group, Ordos, and Beiyuan Group [2] - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing significant catalysts, with SpaceX planning to deploy up to 1 million satellites for large-scale AI inference and data centers, indicating a competitive acceleration in global space resources [2] Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, with Brent crude projected between 55-70 USD per barrel. Coal prices are stabilizing, and natural gas costs are expected to decline as the U.S. accelerates its export facility construction [3][5] - The chemical sector is experiencing a recovery in PPI, with a year-on-year decrease of -1.9% and a month-on-month increase of +0.2%. The manufacturing PMI for January recorded 49.3%, indicating some volatility in manufacturing operations [5] Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy across four main areas: 1. Textile and apparel chain, with a focus on companies like Luxi Chemical and Tongkun Co. 2. Agricultural chemicals, with companies such as Hailir and Yunnan Yuntianhua highlighted. 3. Export-related chemical products, particularly in fluorine chemicals and MDI, with companies like Juhua and Wanhua Chemical recommended. 4. Companies benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as Biyuan Chemical and Xuefeng Technology [2] - Key materials for growth include semiconductor materials, panel materials, and lithium battery materials, with companies like Yake Technology and Xinhuan Technology noted for their potential [2] Company Valuation - Selected companies in the agricultural chemicals sector include: - Hailir: "Increase" rating, market cap of 49.96 billion RMB, projected net profit of 4.45 billion RMB for 2026 [18] - Yangnong Chemical: "Buy" rating, market cap of 325.88 billion RMB, projected net profit of 19.26 billion RMB for 2027 [18] - In the fertilizer and chlor-alkali sector, companies like Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group are also rated "Increase" with significant market caps and projected profits [18]

Strategy Overview - The core strategy indicates that Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman suggests a hawkish policy stance, advocating for balance sheet reduction and cautious interest rate cuts, which may reverse market expectations for continued liquidity easing and strengthen the dollar, leading to a global tightening of dollar liquidity expectations and asset price reassessment [4][2] - In the short term, after a strong spring rally, the market may enter a rhythm adjustment period due to proactive policy guidance and increased overseas disturbances, presenting rotation opportunities for previously stagnant sectors [4][2] Real Estate Sector: Poly Real Estate Group - The company experienced a 48.1% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions, with a settlement area of 814,000 square meters, up 20.8% year-on-year, and a settlement amount of 17.37 billion yuan, up 52.5% year-on-year [8] - Despite revenue growth, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.3%, primarily due to a negative investment income of 950 million yuan and an increase in minority shareholder losses [8] - The company’s gross margin improved to 17.5%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 1.3%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [8][9] - The company’s debt structure improved, with interest-bearing debt down 8.6% year-on-year to 68.2 billion yuan, and the average financing cost decreased by 48 basis points to 2.90% [9] - The company’s sales ranking improved to 15th in the industry, with a sales amount of 29.5 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, despite a 13.5% year-on-year decline [10] Transportation Sector: CITIC Offshore Helicopter - CITIC Offshore Helicopter is a leading player in China's general aviation sector, operating the largest civil helicopter fleet in Asia with 84 advanced model helicopters [13] - The company has a strong revenue stream from offshore oil services, with nearly 70% of its revenue derived from this segment, and maintains a market share of over 60% in the offshore helicopter service market [14] - The general aviation market in China is expected to grow steadily, supported by policy guidance, with the number of general airports reaching 475 and the number of general aviation enterprises reaching 760 by 2024 [14] Transportation Sector: Air China - Air China is the only flag carrier in China, with passenger transport services accounting for nearly 91% of total revenue in 2024 [16] - The company reported a revenue of 166.7 billion yuan in 2024, up 18.14% year-on-year, with a sales gross margin of 5.11% [16] - The domestic passenger transport volume reached 730 million in 2024, a 17.86% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [17] Chemical Sector: Zhejiang Longsheng - The company reported a 6.47% year-on-year decline in revenue to 6.505 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 29.80%, up 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [19][20] - The dye business saw a slight revenue decline of 3.17% to 3.632 billion yuan, but the gross margin improved by 4.40 percentage points to 34.17% [19] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to maintain stable development amid industry challenges [19] Chemical Sector: Yake Technology - The company achieved a revenue growth of 15.37% in the electronic materials segment, with a total revenue of 2.573 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [24] - The company is actively developing new technologies and products in the LNG and electronic materials sectors, with a focus on semiconductor chemical materials [23] New Energy Sector: Foster - Foster is a leading player in the photovoltaic encapsulation materials market, maintaining a market share of around 50% [27] - The company is exploring new solutions for space environment applications, leveraging its existing technology in photovoltaic materials [28] Medical Sector: Mindray Medical - The company faced revenue pressure in the first half of 2025, with a 23.77% year-on-year decline in Q2 revenue to 8.506 billion yuan [29] - International business revenue increased by 5.39%, accounting for about 50% of total revenue, indicating a growing presence in the global market [30] - The company is focusing on building a digital healthcare ecosystem through the integration of devices, IT, and AI technologies [31] Food and Beverage Sector: Kweichow Moutai - The company is navigating a challenging environment in the liquor industry, focusing on quality and long-term value rather than short-term performance metrics [33] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 39.06 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 91.3% [34] Social Services Sector: Lingnan Holdings - The company achieved a revenue of 2.09 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 8.52% year-on-year, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 24.39% [36] - The company is expanding its travel agency and hotel management services, with a focus on enhancing its operational capabilities [38] Electronics Sector: Zhaoyi Innovation - The company expects a revenue of approximately 9.203 billion yuan in 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase, driven by demand from AI computing and the storage industry [39]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Insights - The price increase of dyes has been realized, and attention should be paid to changes in the SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry chain [1][12] - The supply of key intermediate H acid is under pressure due to environmental and safety production constraints, leading to a significant cost increase for active dyes [2][3] - The industry is experiencing a dual transformation in cost and market structure, with a focus on the concentration of market share among leading companies due to stricter environmental regulations [10][9] Summary by Sections Key Intermediate Supply and Price Dynamics - H acid, essential for producing active dyes, faces supply constraints due to environmental pressures and production incidents, leading to a projected price increase that could raise active dye production costs significantly [2][3] - The effective capacity of H acid is currently below 60,000 tons, with a potential reduction of over 25% due to maintenance shutdowns, reinforcing cost support expectations for active dyes [2] Market Structure and Environmental Regulations - The dye industry is undergoing a consolidation phase, with many non-compliant small manufacturers exiting the market, leading to a more oligopolistic structure [3][10] - The active dye market's CR4 (concentration ratio) is 64.91%, while the dispersed dye market's CR4 is 70.69%, indicating a significant level of market concentration [10] Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include Runtao Co., Zhejiang Longsheng, Jinji Co., Jihua Group, Yabang Co., Annuoqi, Fulei Ant, Wanfeng Co., and Haixiang Pharmaceutical, which are positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics [11] - The SAF sector is also highlighted for potential growth, with expected increases in demand driven by regulatory changes and market dynamics [12][14]

Industry Overview - Domestic dye prices have been continuously rising, with disperse dye prices averaging 19 yuan/kg on January 29, up 1 yuan/kg from the previous day and 2 yuan/kg from January 21. Active dye prices averaged 23 yuan/kg on January 29, also up 1 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The price of H acid, a key upstream raw material, reached 41.5 yuan/kg on January 29, increasing by 1 yuan/kg from January 27 [1] - The price increase is attributed to a combination of cost-push factors and an optimized industry structure, with soaring prices of upstream key raw materials providing strong support for dye prices [1] Company Insights - Zhejiang Longsheng has a production capacity of 140,000 tons for disperse dyes and 70,000 tons for active dyes, along with relevant layouts for reducing agents and H acid [2] - It is estimated that for every 10,000 yuan/ton increase in disperse dye prices, there could be a corresponding contribution of 1.24 billion yuan in performance elasticity; for active dyes, a 10,000 yuan/ton increase could contribute 620 million yuan [2] - Qicai Chemical focuses on the R&D, production, and sales of high-performance organic pigments, solvent dyes, and related intermediates, benefiting from the rise in dye prices [2]

Group 1: Tourism - The State Council has issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, emphasizing travel services and encouraging the development of travel destination cities [1] - Leading tourism companies are expected to benefit from policy support, with anticipated short-term gains and long-term performance growth due to increased employee cultural and sports consumption [1] - Policies are projected to bring an annual increase of 50 billion to 165 billion yuan to the domestic tourism market by 2026, significantly boosting industry growth [1] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation plans to enhance commercial launch capabilities, aiming to develop internationally competitive commercial rockets for regular transportation [2] - The company aims to achieve reusable rocket capabilities for 20-ton payloads in low Earth orbit and complete the development of heavy-lift rockets capable of delivering 100 tons to orbit [2] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to experience a convergence of technological advancements, order releases, and capital appreciation by 2026, marking a strategic acceleration in the industry [2] Group 3: Robotics - Beijing has launched its first humanoid robot testing and verification platform, which includes production lines and testing laboratories for humanoid robots [3] - The rise in humanoid robot sales is expected to lead to a gradual decrease in prices, with potential cost reductions for products like Tesla's humanoid robot [3] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in related sectors are likely to capture higher market shares as the industry expands [3] Group 4: Dyes - Domestic dye prices have been rising, with disperse dyes averaging 19 yuan per kilogram and reactive dyes at 23 yuan per kilogram as of January 29 [4] - The price increase is attributed to surging costs of key upstream raw materials and the optimization of industry structure, benefiting leading companies [4] - The current market dynamics suggest a potential turning point for the chemical industry, particularly in the dye sector, driven by improved supply-demand relationships [4] Group 5: Antiferromagnetic Materials - Researchers at Fudan University have discovered a new class of low-dimensional antiferromagnetic materials that can flip uniformly under a magnetic field, enhancing their usability [5] - Antiferromagnetic materials are expected to play a crucial role in next-generation information storage and processing technologies due to their fast response times and low energy consumption [5] - The development of new material systems, including two-dimensional antiferromagnetic materials, is anticipated to broaden applications in fields like spintronics and quantum computing [5]

1月28日，化工板块攻势不减。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘短暂震荡后迅速拉 升，而后持续高位震荡，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.2%，截至收盘，涨2.48%，收盘价续创2022年7 月以来新高。值得注意的是，化工ETF（516020）午后频现溢价交易，收盘溢价率更是高达0.42%，反 映买盘资金较为强势。 成份股方面，纯碱、氨纶、氮肥等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，和邦生物、浙江龙盛双双涨停， 卫星化学、华峰化学飙涨超8%，鲁西化工、桐昆股份、宝丰能源等亦涨幅居前。 消息面上，近日，工业和信息化部、国家发改委等五部门联合印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导 意见》。自2026年起，遴选一批零碳工厂，做好标杆引领；到2027年，在汽车、锂电池、光伏、电子电 器、轻工、机械、算力设施等行业领域，培育建设一批零碳工厂；到2030年，逐步扩展至钢铁、有色金 属、石化化工、建材、纺织等行业领域，探索传统高载能产业脱碳新路径。 方正证券指出，对化企而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约 束，另一方面，随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速 ...