Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate due to tariff agreements and Federal Reserve independence issues, with prices initially rising before declining [2][9] - Copper prices are supported by positive market sentiment and upcoming tariff implementation, despite potential supply and demand pressures [10][12] - The aluminum sector is experiencing price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and inventory levels, with long-term demand expected to remain strong [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are under pressure due to evolving tariff agreements and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold [9] - Copper prices are supported by positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market and upcoming tariff changes, with a long-term optimistic outlook [10] - Aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors and inventory levels, with expectations of sustained high profitability in the sector [11] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 7.10%, outperforming the broader market by 5.43%, ranking third among 30 sub-industries [12] - The top-performing sectors include tungsten, lithium, and rare earth materials, with significant individual stock gains [12] Metal Prices and Inventory - Prices for various metals, including lithium and cobalt, have shown significant increases, indicating strong demand and market dynamics [22][24][27] - Basic metals have generally seen price increases both domestically and internationally, with specific price movements detailed for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin [27][28] - Inventory levels for metals such as copper and aluminum have shown mixed trends, impacting market supply dynamics [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the copper smelting industry in China, highlighting production capacity, profitability challenges, and potential policy changes aimed at regulating the industry [2][5][6]. Production - In 2024, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to reach 13.64 million tons, accounting for 59% of global primary electrolytic copper production, with a compound annual growth rate of 10% since 2004 [3]. - The top ten companies in the copper smelting sector hold approximately 76% of the market share, with major producers including Jiangxi Copper (2.29 million tons), Tongling Nonferrous (1.77 million tons), and Jinchuan Group (1.33 million tons) [3]. Expansion - As of June 2025, the smelting operating rate is around 86%, with 2.98 million tons of production capacity yet to be put into operation. The annualized capacity for June 2025 is estimated at 15.88 million tons [4]. Profitability - The processing fee (TC/RC) has dropped significantly, with the spot price as of July 18, 2025, at -$43.2 per ton, marking a historical low. The long-term processing fee has also fallen to $0 per ton, forcing smelting companies to rely on by-products like sulfuric acid for profitability [5]. - If sulfuric acid prices decline further, smelting companies may face potential losses due to the lack of processing fee income [5]. Policy Implications - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies in the copper industry could limit new smelting capacity and accelerate the exit of smaller smelting operations. This may alleviate the current overcapacity and improve future profitability for smelting companies, especially as downstream consumption continues to grow due to sectors like renewable energy and grid upgrades [6].

会十期货执图 铜加工费跌至近20年低位，冶炼减产传导至精铜供给，铜价支撑逻辑全梳理！一图看懂TC/RC对铜价的影响。 看期货热点,到 2 金十期货 铜加工费(TC/RC)的波动 对铜价有何影响? 01. 什么是铜加工费(TC/RC) ? TC/RC定义 TC (粗炼费) > 铜精矿→粗铜的加工费 单位:美元/吨铜精矿 RC (精炼费) · 粗铜→阴极铜(纯度99.99%) 的精炼费 单位:美分/磅精铜 本质:矿商向冶炼厂支付的加工报酬,费用高低反映铜矿供需关系。 定价机制 核心公式 铜精矿售价 = LME铜价 - TC/RC费用 例：LME铜价9.000/吨，TC/RC=60/6美分 → 铜精矿售价$8,940/吨。 费用方向：矿山为卖方,治炼厂为买方,费用由卖方向买方支付。 02.费用如何决定? 供需博弈 辑 4 铜矿供不应求 → TC/RC下跌 (矿商掌握主动权) 2025年铜精矿长单加工费(TC/RC) : = = Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂: 2025年6月谈判结果为0美元/千吨及0美分 /磅(约合人民币0元/吨)。 Antofagasta 与江西铜业： 2024年12月确定的价格为21.2 ...

Industry Overview - Copper strip is a key material in modern industry, known for its excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, processing performance, and corrosion resistance, widely used in new energy and electronic electrical fields [1][4] - The industry is experiencing a "quantity and quality rise" trend, with total production capacity expected to reach 4.179 million tons and output exceeding 3 million tons by 2024, while the proportion of high-end products is projected to increase to 35% [1][10] - The new energy vehicle sector has become a core growth driver, with production and sales in the first five months of 2025 increasing by over 44% year-on-year, significantly boosting demand for high-conductivity copper strips [1][22] Import and Export Dynamics - The import and export landscape is characterized by accelerated import substitution and steady export growth, with exports expected to increase by 20.61% year-on-year in 2024 [1][12] - In 2024, the total import volume of copper strips is projected to be approximately 88,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.28%, while exports are expected to reach 124,200 tons [12][14] - The import structure is shifting towards high-value-added products, while exports are primarily focused on general-purpose products, indicating a trend towards higher technical content and added value in trade [14][21] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape of the copper strip industry is evolving into a gradient structure, with leading companies like Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous Metals dominating over 60% of the high-end market through technological innovation and cost reduction [16][18] - Medium-sized enterprises are focusing on niche markets, while smaller firms are facing pressure due to environmental standards and market saturation, leading to accelerated exits from the market [16][18] - The industry is expected to consolidate further, with a focus on technological leadership and high-end production capabilities [18][21] Future Trends - The copper strip industry is witnessing three core trends: high-end breakthrough, structural differentiation, and green transformation, driven by technological advancements and market demands [21][22] - The demand for copper strips in the new energy vehicle sector is expected to exceed 2 million tons by 2025, accounting for over 40% of global copper consumption growth [22][23] - Companies are increasingly investing in green technologies and innovations to enhance competitiveness, with significant potential for import substitution in high-end markets [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion from Beijing Deheng Law Firm confirms that Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd.'s differentiated dividend distribution plan complies with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring no harm to the interests of the company and its shareholders [6]. Group 1: Reasons for Differentiated Dividend - The company held a board meeting on February 19, 2024, approving a share repurchase plan, which was completed by May 17, 2024, with a total of 10,441,768 A-shares repurchased [2][4]. Group 2: Differentiated Dividend Plan - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7 RMB (including tax) for every 10 shares, based on a total share capital of 2,075,247,405 shares, excluding the repurchased shares [4][5]. - The total cash dividend to be distributed amounts to 1,445,363,945.90 RMB [5]. Group 3: Calculation Basis for Differentiated Dividend - The reference price for the ex-dividend (ex-rights) calculation is determined by the formula: (previous closing price - cash dividend) [5]. - The actual ex-rights reference price calculated is approximately 21.49 RMB per share, with a minimal impact of less than 1% on the stock price due to the differentiated dividend [5]. Group 4: Conclusion - The legal opinion concludes that the differentiated dividend distribution is in accordance with the Company Law, Securities Law, and other relevant regulations, and does not harm the interests of the company or its shareholders [6].

江西铜业股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.70元 证券代码：600362 证券简称：江西铜业 公告编号：2025-026 ? 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | | 最后交易日 | | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/7/21 | － | | 2025/7/22 | 2025/7/22 | | ? 差异化分红送转： 是 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 6 月 6 日的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 （1）公司于 2025 年 3 月 27 日、2025 年 6 月 6 日分别召开了第十届董事会第八次会议、 案》。本公司 ...

北京德恒律师事务所 关于江西铜业股份有限公司 差异化分红事项的 法律意见 北京市西城区金融街 19 号富凯大厦 B 座 12 层 电话：010-52682888 传真：010-52682999 邮编：100033 北京德恒律师事务所 关于江西铜业股份有限公司差异化分红事项的法律意见 北京德恒律师事务所 关于江西铜业股份有限公司 差异化分红事项的 法律意见 德恒 01G20230544-07 号 致：江西铜业股份有限公司 北京德恒律师事务所（以下简称"本所"）接受江西铜业股份有限公司（以 下简称"公司"或"上市公司"）的委托，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以 下简称"《公司法》"）、《中华人民共和国证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）、 《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 7 号——回购股份》（以下简称"《回 购指引》"）、《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》《江西铜业股份有限公司章程》 （以下简称"《公司章程》"）等相关法律、法规及规范性文件的规定，就公司 2024 年度利润分配涉及的差异化分红（以下简称"本次差异化分红"）相关事项 发表本法律意见。 为出具本法律意见，本所律师作出如下声明： 1.本所律师依据中国 ...

相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/7/21 | － | 2025/7/22 | 2025/7/22 | 证券代码：600362 证券简称：江西铜业 公告编号：2025-026 江西铜业股份有限公司 2024年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.70元 差异化分红送转： 是 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 6 月 6 日的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 3. 差异化分红送转方案： （1）公司于 2025 年 3 月 27 日、2025 年 6 月 6 日分别召开了第十届董事会第八次会议、 20 ...

China Copper Equities Turning point China The long expected US import tax on copper is finally here: On Tuesday 8 July, US President Trump announced plans to implement a 50% tariff on imported copper and the tariff may be implemented as soon as this month (see Copper: Trump announces 50% import tariff, 9 July). The US imports around 50% of its refined copper demand per year, predominantly from Chile (65%), Canada (17%), and Mexico (9%). Given the impending tariffs, Comex copper prices have spiked over 10% s ...