证券简称：小商品城 证券代码：600415 独立财务顾问报告 2025 年 10 月 | 一、释义 3 | | --- | | 二、声明 4 | | 三、基本假设 5 | | 四、股权激励计划的批准与授权 6 | | 五、独立财务顾问意见 8 | | （一）预留授予部分第三个解除限售期解除限售条件的达成情况说明 8 | | （二）本次限制性股票解除限售情况 10 | | （三）结论性意见 10 | 上海荣正企业咨询服务（集团）股份有限公司 关于 浙江中国小商品城集团股份有限公司 2020 年限制性股票激励计划 预留授予部分第三个解除限售期解除限售 相关事项 之 一、释义 3 1. 本公司、公司、小商品城：指浙江中国小商品城集团股份有限公司。 2. 股权激励计划、激励计划、本计划：指《浙江中国小商品城集团股份有限公 司 2020 年限制性股票激励计划（草案）》。 3. 限制性股票：指上市公司按照预先确定的条件授予激励对象一定数量的本公 司股票，激励对象只有在工作年限或业绩目标达到股权激励计划规定条件的， 方可解除限售并上市流通。 4. 股本总额：指公司股东大会审议通过本计划时公司已发行的股本总额。 5. 激励对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported impressive growth in its Q3 2025 performance, with significant increases in revenue and net profit, driven by its core business and technological advancements [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.061 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.457 billion yuan, up 48.45% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 5.348 billion yuan, representing a 39.02% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.766 billion yuan, which is a remarkable increase of 100.52% [1][2]. Business Development - The company's global trade center is accelerating efficiency, with early completion of major projects and exceeding expectations in recruitment, attracting over 10,000 entities for various sectors [2]. - The AI-enabled "Chinagoods" platform has seen significant engagement, with over 1 billion visits, and has developed advanced AI tools for global market access [2]. International Expansion - The company’s cross-border payment service, YiwuPay, surpassed $2.5 billion in transactions, marking a 47% increase, and is now operational in over 170 countries [3]. - The company is actively pursuing financial licenses in Hong Kong to support its international operations, establishing a foundation for its global business strategy [3]. Global Branding Strategy - The company is advancing its global branding strategy for "Yiwu China Small Commodity City," focusing on emerging markets such as the Middle East, South America, and Africa, with 13 new overseas projects initiated [3]. - The opening of the Osaka Yiwu market in Japan marks a significant milestone in the company's international expansion efforts [3]. Profit Forecast - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 19.637 billion yuan, 24.313 billion yuan, and 29.638 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 24.78%, 23.81%, and 21.90% [4]. - Projected net profits for the same years are 3.910 billion yuan, 5.003 billion yuan, and 6.416 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27.20%, 27.97%, and 28.23% [4].

Core Insights - The stock price of Xiaogoods City has increased by 49.62% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 6.53% over the last five trading days [2] - As of September 30, 2025, Xiaogoods City reported a revenue of 13.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 23.07%, and a net profit of 3.46 billion yuan, reflecting a 48.45% increase [3] Financial Performance - The stock price reached 19.57 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 107.31 billion yuan [1] - The company has distributed a total of 7.08 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.26 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [4] Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders increased to 132,500, with an average of 41,384 shares held per person, a decrease of 10.49% [3] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 287 million shares, and Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, holding 46.67 million shares, both showing a reduction in holdings [4]

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the Yiwu Global Digital Trade Center marks a significant milestone in Zhejiang's efforts to enhance its openness and strengthen digital trade, positioning it as a new engine for the province's economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Yiwu Global Digital Trade Center has a total investment of 8.3 billion yuan and is seen as a major project for promoting digital trade in Zhejiang [1]. - The center aims to leverage digital technology to empower traditional trade and facilitate high-level foreign trade [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Goals - The initiative focuses on creating a modern digital trade port that emphasizes data interconnectivity, industry aggregation, and global outreach [2][12]. - The project is part of a broader strategy to deepen international trade reforms and optimize market procurement measures [2][12]. Group 3: Historical Context - Yiwu has been a symbol of Zhejiang's openness since it was approved for international trade reform in 2011, with each innovation contributing to national exploration [3]. - The establishment of the Global Digital Trade Center is viewed as a response to the challenges posed by a complex international environment [3]. Group 4: Digital Transformation - Yiwu has initiated a digital transformation in international trade, creating a comprehensive trade service ecosystem that integrates online platforms and offline networks [4]. - The city has developed its own digital trade platform, Chinagoods, and has made significant advancements in digital payment solutions [5]. Group 5: AI Integration - A three-year action plan for enhancing AI skills among merchants was launched, aiming to equip them with the necessary tools to adapt to the digital economy [6]. - The integration of AI into business practices is expected to enhance operational efficiency and market competitiveness [9][10]. Group 6: Market Evolution - The Global Digital Trade Center represents a shift towards a new generation of markets, focusing on digital trade as a core component [7]. - The center's design includes a vast area dedicated to various popular industries, creating a comprehensive digital trade ecosystem [7]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The ongoing reforms and digital initiatives in Yiwu are expected to significantly enhance the province's capacity for high-level openness and sustainable development [11][15]. - The successful implementation of these strategies will position Zhejiang as a leading digital trade hub in China [15].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the performance forecasts for Q3 2025 in the electronics and basic chemicals sectors are promising, with over 10 companies expected to achieve a profit growth rate exceeding 30% year-on-year [3][29] - In the electronics sector, the AI wave is driving high growth, with AI inference creating new demand, suggesting that the sector is likely to maintain a high prosperity level [3][29] - The basic chemicals sector is experiencing structural improvement due to supply constraints and demand support, with an overall balance of supply and demand expected to improve as capacity adjustments take place [3][29] Group 2 - The report indicates that as of October 15, 2025, 154 companies in the A-share market have disclosed their Q3 2025 performance forecasts or reports, with a disclosure rate of approximately 2.83% and a pre-positive forecast rate of about 83.06% [3][30] - The median net profit growth rate for the sample companies disclosing their performance forecasts is 71.2% under the median method and 65.6% under the overall method [3][30] - The report identifies that the sectors with the highest pre-positive forecast rates include comprehensive, non-bank financial, and social services, all at 100% [3][30] Group 3 - The medical device sector saw a decline in revenue and net profit in H1 2025, with overall revenue down 7.3% and net profit down 27.0% year-on-year [8] - However, the bidding process is recovering, with the total amount of domestic medical device bids in H1 2025 reaching 83.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64% [8] - Companies like United Imaging and Mindray are experiencing growth in overseas revenues, indicating a trend towards globalization in the medical device market [8] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of AI hardware and domestic computing power as key investment areas, suggesting that the market may continue to see structural slow growth with technology remaining a core focus [10] - The electronics sector is expected to see significant advancements in AI terminal ecosystems, with hardware innovation and computing power working in synergy, potentially leading to a boom in 2026 [12] - The report also notes that major companies like Apple are enhancing their collaboration in the AI space, which could lead to a reevaluation of industry valuations [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Education Sector**: Action Education (EMBA training) - **Hospitality Sector**: Shoulv Hotel - **Retail Sector**: Small Commodity City, Yonghui Supermarket - **Beauty Sector**: Proya, Winona - **Jewelry Sector**: Laopuhuangjin, Zhou Daxing - **Food and Beverage Sector**: Mixue Group Core Insights and Arguments Education Sector - Action Education's performance improved in Q3 after a challenging Q2 due to US-China trade tensions, with expected annual revenue exceeding 300 million and a valuation of 15-16 times earnings, alongside a dividend yield over 6% [1][2] - The company's "Hundred Schools Plan" is anticipated to contribute over 10% to revenue growth next year [1] Hospitality Sector - Shoulv Hotel showed continuous improvement in data, with a target of 2.6 million rooms and an expected annual performance of 900 million, valued at 17-18 times earnings this year and 16 times next year [1][2] Retail Sector - Small Commodity City exceeded expectations with Q3 net profit over 1.7 billion, raising annual profit forecasts to 4.7-4.8 billion, with a valuation of 16-17 times [1][4] - Yonghui Supermarket is stabilizing daily sales after store adjustments, with expectations of reduced losses or profitability next year, supported by self-owned product growth [1][4] Beauty Sector - The beauty sector is benefiting from the Double Eleven shopping festival, with Proya and Winona showing strong sales performance. Proya's valuation is expected to be no more than 20 times in 2025 and 16-17 times in 2026 [1][5][6] Jewelry Sector - Laopuhuangjin is experiencing significant growth, with a projected annual increase of at least 50% and a valuation of under 30 times, expected to grow at least 30% next year with a valuation around 20 times [1][9] - The brand is expanding its presence in overseas markets, with plans to enter Japan by 2026 [10] Food and Beverage Sector - Mixue Group's same-store sales decreased by 7% month-on-month but increased by 6% year-on-year, with expectations of growth as external factors stabilize [11][12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The overall consumer sector is currently underperforming, but there are still quality low-priced stocks worth considering [2] - The beauty sector's performance during the Double Eleven festival indicates strong consumer interest, particularly in leading brands [5] - Laopuhuangjin's competitive advantages include strong brand recognition in lower-tier cities and effective management of store openings and closures [7][9] - Yonghui Supermarket's adjustments and self-owned product development are crucial for its recovery and future growth [4][8]

Group 1 - In the past five trading days, a total of 144 companies were investigated by institutions, with a significant focus on companies like Mindray Medical, Dike Co., and Small Commodity City [1][2] - Among the companies investigated, 30 received attention from more than 20 institutions, with Mindray Medical being the most popular, attracting 184 institutions [1][2] - The types of institutions involved in the investigations included 128 securities companies, 101 fund companies, and 61 private equity firms [1] Group 2 - In terms of stock performance, 7 out of the investigated companies saw an increase in their stock prices, with the highest gainers being Jiao Cheng Ultrasound, Rongqi Technology, and Small Commodity City, with increases of 15.87%, 7.84%, and 5.85% respectively [2] - Conversely, 23 companies experienced declines, with the largest drops seen in Huicheng Co., Fuke Environmental Protection, and Meihu Co., with decreases of 17.61%, 13.07%, and 12.04% respectively [2] - Among the companies that have released their Q3 reports, Small Commodity City and Yabo Xuan reported the highest year-on-year net profit growth of 48.45% and 36.59% respectively [2] Group 3 - The table of investigated companies shows that Mindray Medical had one investigation with 184 institutions, while Dike Co. had 107 institutions participating, and Small Commodity City had 106 institutions [3][4] - The stock prices of these companies varied, with Mindray Medical closing at 225.50 yuan, Dike Co. at 61.90 yuan, and Small Commodity City at 19.18 yuan, reflecting respective changes of -6.82%, -11.00%, and +5.85% [3][4] - The most frequently investigated company was Xizi Clean Energy, which was investigated three times, while several others like Chaojie Co. and Juzan Optoelectronics were investigated twice [1][3]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Xiaogoods City achieved significant growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 5.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.02%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 1.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.52% [1][28]. - The strong performance is attributed to the successful leasing of commercial spaces in the Global Digital Trade Center and the growth in fulfillment service profits [1][28]. - The Global Digital Trade Center officially opened on October 14, 2025, which is expected to continue benefiting the company as it ramps up operations [1][28]. - The report also notes that the cross-border payment business of Yipay surpassed 27 billion yuan, growing over 35% year-on-year, indicating robust growth potential [1][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The consumer services index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.00 percentage points, while the retail index outperformed by 2.14 percentage points during the specified period [8]. 2. Industry & Company Dynamics 2.1 Industry News - Sam's Club is expanding into lower-tier markets, with a new store opening in Zhangjiagang on October 20, 2025 [17]. - The 2025 China Urban Convenience Store Development Index was released, showing steady growth in convenience store development across major cities [18][19]. - The Global Digital Trade Center in Yiwu opened on October 14, 2025, marking a significant upgrade in the market's trading capabilities [21]. 2.2 Industry Financing Situation - Notable financing events include Xiuhou Technology completing a 50 million yuan Series A round and Haichuang Biotechnology securing several million yuan in Series A funding [22][23][25]. 2.3 Key Company Announcements - Xiaogoods City reported a total revenue of 13.061 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.07%, and a net profit of 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.45% [28][30]. 3. Macro & Industry Data 3.1 Retail Sales - In August, total retail sales reached 3.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [33][38]. - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year from January to August [34]. 3.2 Gold and Jewelry - National gold consumption in Q2 2025 was 214.71 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.06% year-on-year [50].

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly focused on corporate performance as the third-quarter reports are being disclosed, with significant institutional ratings and positive growth in specific companies and industries [1][6]. Company Summaries - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 3.86 billion yuan for the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.05%, and a net profit of 333 million yuan, up 18.21% year-on-year. The company has expanded its WANPY brand into North America's largest pet e-commerce platform, Chewy [1][2]. - Xiaoshangpin City received ratings from 9 institutions, with a total market value of 105.18 billion yuan and a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 25.03 [2]. - Shijia Photon (688313) achieved a net profit of 300 million yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a staggering year-on-year growth of 727.74%, driven by the rapid growth of the data communication market [6]. - Chenguang Biotech expects a net profit between 278 million yuan and 314 million yuan for the first three quarters, indicating a year-on-year increase of 344.05% to 401.55% [6]. Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are seeing a surge in institutional "buy" ratings, with 25 stocks in the pharmaceutical sector and 22 in the electronics sector receiving such ratings. Recent regulatory changes and innovations in the medical field are expected to drive growth [4]. - The electronics industry is benefiting from the explosive growth of AI technology, with a projected 70% year-on-year increase in global high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shipments by 2025, alongside significant sales growth in AI-enabled products [5]. - The average increase in stock prices for the 140 companies rated by institutions this year is 39.56%, with 14 stocks experiencing over 100% growth, highlighting strong market performance [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company has shown impressive performance due to the opening of the new market, with revenue reaching 13.1 billion (up 23% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.46 billion (up 48%) for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The newly opened Global Digital Trade Center is expected to enhance revenue certainty, with 80% of the leasing completed and over 3,700 merchants already operating in various new industries [1][2] - The company is actively developing new businesses such as "Yi Payment," which has seen transaction volumes exceed 27 billion (up over 35%) [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.35 billion (up 39%) and net profit of 1.766 billion (up 101%) [1] - The company forecasts revenues of 20.6 billion, 26.3 billion, and 30.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 28%, and 17% [4] New Business Developments - The "Yi Payment" platform has been launched, providing cross-border payment services and achieving significant transaction volumes [3] - The company has introduced 13 AI applications aimed at reducing costs and improving efficiency for merchants in the small commodity trade sector [2] Market Expansion - The Global Digital Trade Center, which opened on October 14, 2025, is a key driver for future growth, featuring a total area of 1.25 million square meters and multiple functional areas [1][2] - The new market has attracted a significant number of new generation operators, with over 50% being "second-generation" business owners [1]