新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月28日呈 放量分化走势。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为8866元，较昨日下跌20元，创近五 日以来价格新低。今日市场四涨六跌：上涨端，精品茅台领涨6元/瓶；水晶剑南春上涨3元/瓶；国窖 1573和梦之蓝M6+均上涨2元/瓶。下跌端，青花郎显著回调17元/瓶，调整幅度居前，此前该酒品曾五 连涨获利回吐压力日增；飞天茅台终端零售价受i茅台平台常态化供应影响，环比下跌9元/瓶；习酒君 品和古井贡古20分别下跌3元/瓶、2元/瓶；青花汾20和五粮液均微跌1元/瓶，走势相对平稳。 | 2 | 习酒君品 | 639/瓶 | -3元' | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 53度/500ml | | | | 北 | 青花郎 | 720/瓶 | -17元▼ | | | 53度/500ml | | | | 100 | 水晶剑南春 | 391/瓶 | 3元 ▲ | | | 52度/500ml | | | "酒价内参"的每日数据源自全国各大区均有 ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月28日呈 放量分化走势。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为8866元，较昨日下跌20元，创近五 日以来价格新低。今日市场四涨六跌：上涨端，精品茅台领涨6元/瓶；水晶剑南春上涨3元/瓶；国窖 1573和梦之蓝M6+均上涨2元/瓶。下跌端，青花郎显著回调17元/瓶，调整幅度居前，此前该酒品曾五 连涨获利回吐压力日增；飞天茅台终端零售价受i茅台平台常态化供应影响，环比下跌9元/瓶；习酒君 品和古井贡古20分别下跌3元/瓶、2元/瓶；青花汾20和五粮液均微跌1元/瓶，走势相对平稳。 | 2 | 习酒君品 | 639/瓶 | -3元' | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 53度/500ml | | | | 北 | 青花郎 | 720/瓶 | -17元▼ | | | 53度/500ml | | | | 100 | 水晶剑南春 | 391/瓶 | 3元 ▲ | | | 52度/500ml | | | 新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Wine Price Reference" by Sina Finance has launched, providing real-time data on the retail prices of major Chinese liquor brands, indicating a mixed market trend with a slight overall decline in prices [1][5]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten liquor products in China on January 28 was 8,866 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day, marking a new low in the past five days [1][7]. - The market showed four price increases and six decreases: - Increases: Premium Moutai up 6 yuan/bottle, Crystal Jian Nan Chun up 3 yuan/bottle, Guojiao 1573 and Dream Blue M6+ each up 2 yuan/bottle [1][7]. - Decreases: Qinghua Lang down 17 yuan/bottle, Feitian Moutai down 9 yuan/bottle, Xijiu Junpin down 3 yuan/bottle, and Gu Qingong Gu 20 down 2 yuan/bottle [1][7]. Market Analysis - The A-share liquor sector has seen a decline, with the China Securities Liquor Index dropping to 8,293.16 points, the lowest since September 19, 2024, and marking six consecutive years of annual declines [5][9]. - Among 20 stocks in the liquor sector, the average decline over the past 11 trading days was approximately 8.5%, with a median decline of 6.6% [5][9]. - Six stocks experienced declines of over 10%, accounting for nearly 30% of the sector, including Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe Brewery, and Gujing Gongjiu [5][9]. Financing Activity - Despite the market downturn, there has been an increase in financing activity, with Guizhou Moutai seeing a net purchase of 3.166 billion yuan over the past ten trading days, reaching a financing balance not seen in a year and a half [5][9]. - Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye also saw net increases of 250 million yuan and 120 million yuan, respectively [5][9].

Group 1 - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has been declining since the beginning of the year, recently hitting a new low since October 2024 [2] - Notable investor Duan Yongping believes that the current stock price is "really not expensive" when viewed over a longer time frame [4] - Public fund allocations in the liquor sector have dropped below 4%, indicating a relatively low position [9] Group 2 - Duan Yongping supports Guizhou Moutai's direct sales initiative through the iMoutai App, which addresses issues of counterfeit products and high prices, potentially unlocking significant purchasing power [4] - He emphasizes that while macroeconomic conditions can impact good companies, they tend to recover faster due to their health [4] - Duan Yongping holds 40,000 shares of Moutai and plans to buy an additional 20,000 shares at 1,365 yuan, although he later deleted this post [4] Group 3 - As of January 27, Guizhou Moutai's stock price was 1,343.01 yuan per share [7] - Guizhou Moutai is the second-largest holding in Zhang Kun's E Fund Blue Chip Select Mixed Fund, with a holding value representing 9.9% of the fund's net value [10] - The overall public fund holdings in Guizhou Moutai have decreased from 19.6484 million shares to 19.1997 million shares [12] Group 4 - The allocation of public funds in the liquor sector has decreased from a peak of 16% in 2020 to the current 3.93%, which is below historical levels [12] - Fund managers express differing views on the liquor sector, with some looking to increase holdings while others are reducing positions due to concerns over pricing and earnings expectations [12]

证券研究报告|商贸零售 [Table_Title] 大消费板块重仓比例连续 7 个季度回落，远 低于历史均值水平 [Table_ReportType] ——大消费行业 2025Q4 基金持仓分析[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] ⚫ 大消费板块重仓比例持续回落，多数消费子板块重仓比例均环比 下降，只有轻工制造、商贸零售和社会服务三个板块略有上升。 2025Q4 大消费板块基金重仓比例延续了 7 个季度以来的下降趋 势，环比下降 0.28pcts 至 4.41%，目前处于历史低位，远低于 2018 年以来的历史重仓比例平均值 10.94%。 ⚫ 分个股：全市场个股持仓 TOP20 中大消费板块占据 2 个席位，与 Q3 季度席位数持平，大消费板块个股重仓比例分化明显。2025Q4 全市场基金重仓比例 TOP20 个股中大消费板块占据 2 个席位，食 品饮料（贵州茅台）和家用电器（美的集团）各占据 1 席。大消 费板块基金重仓比例提升幅度前 10 个股包括 3 只家用电器个股 （美的集团、格力电器、海尔智家）、2 只食品饮料个股（伊利股 份、口子窖）、2 只轻工制造个 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio continues to decline, dropping to 2.61% in Q4 2025, down 0.20 percentage points from the previous quarter, and significantly below the historical average of 6.77% since 2018 [1][10]. - Within the sector, the heavy holding ratio for sub-segments, excluding alcoholic beverages, has seen a rebound, with notable increases in categories such as seasoning and fermented products, dairy beverages, and snacks [2][13]. - The top ten heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector are dominated by liquor stocks, which occupy seven positions, with a total heavy holding ratio of 2.37% [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Heavy Holding Ratios - The food and beverage industry's heavy holding ratio has decreased to 2.61%, ranking sixth among 31 primary industries, down from fifth in the previous quarter [1][10]. - The liquor segment's heavy holding ratio has dropped to 2.26%, while other sub-segments like seasoning and fermented products, dairy beverages, snacks, and food processing have shown slight increases [2][13]. 2. Liquor Segment Analysis - The liquor segment remains a dominant force in the food and beverage industry, accounting for over 86% of the heavy holdings, although it has decreased by 1.76 percentage points [16]. - The top three liquor stocks by heavy holding ratio are Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, with significant fluctuations in their rankings [19][20]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, with low valuations and high dividends providing strong support for stock prices. The inventory destocking cycle is expected to continue until mid-2026, with potential investment opportunities emerging in the second half of 2026 [25]. - For the broader consumer goods sector, growth is anticipated from product upgrades, particularly in beer and dairy, while the seasoning industry is expected to benefit from low raw material costs and the rise of customized solutions [4][27].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月27日 $\Delta$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$ 公募 FOF 基金 2025 年四季度概览 截至 2025Q4，全市场已成立FOF产品数量 549 只，合计规模为 2441.88 亿元，相比 2025Q3 增加 26.20%。根据穿透后权益资产占比将FOF划 分为偏债型FOF、平衡型FOF和偏股型FOF，2025Q4 规模分别为 1611.13 亿元、454. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low position in terms of valuation and fundamentals, presenting significant layout value. The CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.8%, indicating a mild recovery trend. The policy focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is becoming clearer, signaling a potential bottoming out of industry demand. The current valuation and policy bottom are resonating, gradually releasing pessimistic expectations and providing a safety margin for investment [7][35] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with resilient demand for consumer goods and a continuous upward trend in the snack sector. The mismatch in the timing of the Spring Festival is anticipated to lead to a concentrated release of stocking demand. The sector is expected to achieve rapid growth in Q1 2026 [7][35] Summary by Sections Fund Positioning - In Q4 2025, the allocation ratio for food and beverage in the overall market funds dropped to a new low of 6.1%, down from 6.4% in Q3 2025. The allocation ratio for active equity funds was 4.0%, slightly down from 4.1% in the previous quarter, indicating a continued reduction in food and beverage allocations by active equity funds [4][13] - The overall number of shares held by funds in the food and beverage sector decreased in Q4 2025, with a general trend of reduced allocation to food and beverage companies. Notably, companies like Yurun Agriculture, Yili, and West Wheat Food saw an increase in market value held by funds, while companies like Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai experienced significant decreases [6][29][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment: first, consider companies like Shede Liquor that have undergone sufficient adjustments and possess high elasticity; second, allocate to industry leaders such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have strong performance stability and risk resistance. The Spring Festival stocking is expected to be a core catalyst for the sector's performance [7][34] - Specific investment opportunities are highlighted in three sub-sectors: raw milk/dairy products, the snack sector, and the catering supply chain. Companies such as Wei Long, Gan Yuan Food, Yan Jin Pu Zi, West Wheat Food, and Yili are identified as key investment targets, with beneficiaries including Yurun Agriculture, Mengniu Dairy, Anjixin Food, and Guoquan [7][38]

Core Insights - The sales of the "Horse Year" Moutai (referred to as "Ma Moutai") have been exceptionally strong since its launch on January 6, leading to high customer traffic in stores and a significant increase in sales volume [4][5][9]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The "Ma Moutai" product has been selling out almost immediately upon release, particularly in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, resulting in a consistent increase in customer visits to stores [4][5]. - One store reported that on a peak day, the number of bottles sold reached 308, indicating a substantial rise in consumer demand and interest in the product [6][10]. Group 2: Consumer Experience - The purchasing process for "Ma Moutai" includes options for direct purchase and selection of production dates, enhancing the consumer experience by allowing for both online ordering and in-store pickup [6][10]. - Customers have expressed satisfaction with the product's design and its increased collectible value, which includes elements of traditional culture and art [9][10]. Group 3: Channel Strategy - The integration of online and offline sales channels has improved operational efficiency and customer service, with stores providing amenities such as refreshments to enhance the customer experience during pickup [10][11]. - The "i Moutai" platform has become a crucial link between consumers and distributors, facilitating a new marketing strategy that combines direct sales, distribution, and consignment [10][11]. Group 4: Market Trends - The popularity of "Ma Moutai" reflects a broader trend in the growth of collectible culture and the sustained interest in Moutai's zodiac-themed products, which are designed to stimulate consumer demand [9][11]. - The company's market transformation efforts, initiated in late 2025, emphasize a consumer-centric approach and the deepening of market integration, showcasing the evolving dynamics of the Moutai distribution ecosystem [11].

此前贵州茅台在《2026年贵州茅台酒市场化运营方案》中明确，营销体系将从以往的"自售+经销"模 式，转向"自售+经销+代售+寄售"多维协同的新体系，不同产品将根据自身特点适配相应运营模式。同 时，茅台将以自营体系零售价为基础，合理测算渠道利润率，科学确定经销合同价与佣金水平，进一步 推动市场运营的精细化与系统化。 上午九点，广州天河区一家茅台专卖店刚开门不久，就有顾客进门询问马年生肖酒（经典版，下称"马 茅"）的提货事宜。确认有货后，顾客打开"i茅台"出示提货码，店员熟练扫码、从仓库取出两盒马茅， 并仔细提醒核对瓶身信息码与小票是否一致、检查包装是否完好——一次提货流程顺利完成。 对这家店来说，这位顾客的到来只是当日的"开场热身"。前一天晚上，店里新到一批马茅，门店员工已 同步通知了此前未能提到货的顾客。如果这些顾客陆续前来，今天预计接待的提货人数将超过150人 次。实际上，这已成为该专卖店近20多天的常态：得益于马茅的热销，门店每日客流量每天"居高不 下"。 这一现象并非个例，自今年1月6日马茅正式销售以来，产品几乎每日上线即迅速售罄。其中在粤港澳大 湾区的部分茅台专卖店，在马茅热销中"客似云来"，门店在竭 ...