贵州茅台半年报 | | | | 单位:元 币种:人民币 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本报告期 | | 本报告期比 | | 主要会计数据 | (1-6月) | 上年同期 | 上年同期增 | | | | | 成(%) | | 营业收入 | 89, 389, 354, 416. 84 | 81, 930, 977, 667. 75 | 9. 10 | | 利润总额 | 62, 778, 000, 766. 82 | 57.578, 281, 653. 44 | 9. 03 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | 45, 402, 962, 298. 10 | 41.695,610.983.37 | 8. 89 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经 | 45. 390. 247. 623. 82 | 41.670.097.819.99 | 8. 93 | | 常性损益的净利润 | | | | | 经营活动产生的现金流量净额 | 13.119.061.031.33 | 36.621,833,812.63 | -64. 18 | | | 本报告期末 | 上年度末 | 本报告期末 | | ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 15 日 [Table_Title] Q2 务实降速，市场化、全球化持续推进 ► 系列酒降速为长远发展，自营店体系建设再强化，出海战略持续落地。 [Table_Title2] 贵州茅台(600519) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 600519 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 1910.0/1245.83 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 17,925.82 | | 最新收盘价： | 1426.99 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 17,925.82 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 1,256.20 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 8 月 12 日，公司发布半年报。2025H1，公司实现营业收入 893.89 亿元，同比+9.10%，实现归母净利润 454.03 亿元，同比+8.89。 分析判断: ► Q2 务实降速，减少渠道资金占用，加大对酱香系列酒经销商的资金支持。 经 ...

Core Insights - The white liquor market is experiencing a price decline across various brands, with significant adjustments in retail pricing due to the introduction of new sales channels and promotional strategies [5][15][17] - Instant retail platforms are contributing to lower average prices, with many high-end products being sold at prices significantly below traditional retail channels [6][9][10] Price Trends - The average price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to approximately 2134.43 yuan, down from 2367 yuan in the previous period, with online prices as low as 1890 yuan on certain platforms [6][7] - The average price of Wuliangye's eighth generation has decreased to 953.1 yuan, down from 1054 yuan, reflecting a decline of 9.57% [16] - The average price of Guojiao 1573 has also seen a reduction, with current prices around 982.61 yuan, indicating a downward trend in the high-end liquor segment [10][12] Market Adjustments - The introduction of new retail channels, particularly instant retail platforms, has led to a more accurate reflection of market prices, with many products seeing a significant drop in their average prices [5][17] - The inclusion of Foshan in the pricing statistics has highlighted its status as a key market for liquor consumption, with average prices for high-end products like Feitian Moutai reaching around 2320.94 yuan [12][13] Product-Specific Changes - The average price of Dream Blue M6+ is reported at 708.46 yuan, with online prices being lower than offline prices, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [10][11] - The average price of the ancient well liquor, Gu 20, has decreased to 597 yuan, down from 660 yuan, showing a notable price adjustment in the mid-range segment [7][16] Consumer Behavior - The shift towards instant retail platforms is changing consumer purchasing patterns, with many consumers opting for lower-priced options available online [6][17] - The overall market dynamics are being influenced by promotional activities and discounts offered by instant retail platforms, leading to a more competitive pricing environment [5][15]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% year-on-year [3]. Group 1: Revenue Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 39.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.26%, and a net profit of 18.555 billion yuan, increasing by 5.25% year-on-year [3][4]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in Q2 2025 was 32.032 billion yuan and 6.740 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.99% for Moutai liquor and a decline of 6.53% for series liquor [4]. - Direct sales and wholesale channels generated revenues of 16.789 billion yuan and 21.983 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 16.52% and 1.48%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Profitability and Costs - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 90.42%, slightly down by 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 49.53%, a decrease of 1.07 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - Sales expenses increased to 4.45% of revenue, up by 0.45 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to higher advertising and marketing expenditures [5]. - The company's cash collection from sales in Q2 2025 was 38.943 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.64% year-on-year, with net cash flow from operating activities dropping by 84.3% to 4.31 billion yuan [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Guizhou Moutai's half-year report shows a decline in revenue and net profit growth, with both figures dropping to single digits year-on-year [2] Group 2 - For the first half of the year, Guizhou Moutai reported revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan [2] - The year-on-year growth rates for both revenue and net profit have decreased significantly, indicating potential challenges for the company [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai is actively implementing the concept of "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets," focusing on ecological protection and sustainable development while transforming ecological value into economic growth [2][5][8] Group 1: Ecological Protection Initiatives - The company emphasizes ecological priority and green development, particularly in the Chishui River basin, which is crucial for the production of Moutai liquor [3][4] - Moutai has invested over 400 million yuan in ecological protection efforts in the Chishui River basin, implementing comprehensive water management and recycling measures with a cooling water recycling rate exceeding 87% [3][4] - The company is committed to reducing carbon emissions and improving air quality through various initiatives, including the transformation of natural gas boilers and the application of renewable energy [4][6] Group 2: Economic and Ecological Value Transformation - Moutai focuses on converting ecological resources into green, organic products, aiming for a revenue target of 187.19 billion yuan in 2024 while enhancing ecological benefits [5][6] - The company allocates 1.5% of its annual revenue to environmental protection, aiming to reduce carbon emissions and water consumption by over 20% and 30%, respectively, by 2030 [6][8] - Moutai is developing high-value ecological products from production waste, contributing to a circular economy [6][7] Group 3: Strategic Development and Industry Leadership - Moutai has established a comprehensive ecological development index system to evaluate its green development efforts, achieving a significant upgrade in its ESG rating from B to A within two years [7] - The company leads various ecological protection initiatives, including tree planting and sustainable development forums, fostering collaboration across multiple sectors [7][8] - Moutai aims to enhance its role in ecological conservation and community development through the Chishui River Ecological Public Welfare Fund [8]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the liquor sector, traditionally seen as a stable investment, has recently caused significant pressure for fund managers, leading to a reevaluation of strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager's Performance - Xiao Nan, a senior fund manager at E Fund, manages over 30 billion yuan and has faced challenges with the liquor sector impacting fund performance [1][2]. - The fund managed by Xiao Nan has seen a decline of 6.29% this year, while the average of similar funds has increased by 15.37% [2][4]. - Over the past year, two years, and three years, the fund has underperformed the market, indicating difficulties in both bullish and bearish market conditions [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Adjustments - In the second quarter report, Xiao Nan acknowledged the negative impact of increasing exposure to liquor stocks on fund performance, admitting a cognitive bias towards high-quality assets [3]. - The report highlighted that leading liquor companies have compromised long-term brand value for short-term performance, resulting in significant price declines [3]. - To improve fund performance, Xiao Nan reduced holdings in low-end liquor and beer stocks while increasing allocations in agriculture and beverage sectors, indicating a shift towards more defensive and fundamentally supported investments [3].

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai is facing its most severe growth challenges since 2016, with revenue growth slowing to single digits for the first time in a decade [1][2] - The company's contract liabilities have dropped significantly by 42.59%, indicating reduced purchasing enthusiasm from distributors [1][7] - The price of the flagship product, Feitian Moutai, has fallen below the psychological threshold of 2000 RMB per bottle, reflecting a decline in demand and financial attributes [11][13] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of approximately 893.89 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.10%, and a net profit of about 454.03 billion RMB, up 8.89% [2][3] - The operating cash flow has decreased by 64.18%, indicating a significant decline in cash generation capabilities [2][4] - The second quarter revenue was approximately 387.88 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.28%, and net profit of about 185.55 billion RMB, growing by 5.25% [3] Market Dynamics - The core product, Moutai liquor, generated revenue of approximately 755.9 billion RMB, growing by 10.24%, while the series liquor segment only saw a 4.68% increase, indicating a slowdown in the mid-range market [4][5] - Direct sales revenue increased by 18.63% to 400.10 billion RMB, while wholesale and agency channels grew by only 2.83% to 493.43 billion RMB, reflecting a mixed performance in channel management [4][5] Strategic Adjustments - The decline in contract liabilities is attributed to a strategic adjustment by the company to ease cash flow pressures on distributors, rather than solely a drop in demand [7][9] - The increase in accounts receivable and notes receivable suggests that the company may be extending credit terms to support its distribution network [8][9] Pricing Pressure - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1860 RMB per bottle, down from 2220 RMB at the beginning of the year, indicating a significant price decline in the high-end market [11][13] - The company has halted production of its Taoyuan liquor due to severe price discrepancies and excess inventory, reflecting broader challenges in the market [13][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai [5][10]. Core Views - Guizhou Moutai has demonstrated stable performance in a challenging market, achieving a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [1][3]. - The company is expected to meet its annual revenue growth target of around 9%, with a forecasted revenue of 189.82 billion yuan and a net profit of 93.036 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 7.89% respectively [3][4]. - The internationalization strategy is progressing steadily, with overseas market revenue reaching 2.89 billion yuan in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 27.6% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, Guizhou Moutai achieved a revenue of 39.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.26%, and a net profit of 18.555 billion yuan, up 5.25% [1]. - The sales revenue from Moutai liquor in the first half of the year was 75.590 billion yuan, up 10.24%, while series liquor sales decreased slightly [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 90.42%, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.26% attributed to adjustments in series liquor [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit projections for the coming years are as follows: - 2023: Revenue of 150.56 billion yuan, net profit of 74.73 billion yuan - 2024: Revenue of 174.14 billion yuan, net profit of 86.23 billion yuan - 2025: Revenue of 189.82 billion yuan, net profit of 93.04 billion yuan - 2026: Revenue of 209.65 billion yuan, net profit of 103.24 billion yuan - 2027: Revenue of 228.58 billion yuan, net profit of 114.02 billion yuan [4][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing adjustments, with leading brands in high-end and regional segments remaining relatively stable. The industry is currently in a phase of active destocking, with expectations of demand recovery as macroeconomic conditions improve. High-end brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are recommended [5][18] - The yellow wine sector is entering a new price increase cycle, with significant concentration in the market. Leading brands are collaborating strategically and expanding into new markets, particularly focusing on high-end product lines [6][19] - The mass consumer goods segment is facing pressure from the restaurant chain demand, but certain sub-sectors like dairy products and condiments show promising growth potential. The dairy sector is expected to stabilize with the introduction of child-rearing subsidies, while condiment companies are managing inventory pressures effectively [7][22][24] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is currently in a destocking phase, with a short-term impact from policy changes. However, the demand structure differs from previous cycles, and recovery is anticipated as consumer confidence improves. High-end brands are expected to perform well, with Kweichow Moutai projected to achieve a 7% revenue growth in Q2 2025 [5][18] - The yellow wine market has seen a significant increase in concentration, with the top three brands holding approximately 43% market share as of 2023. Price increases are expected for key products, with brands like Kuaijishan actively promoting high-end offerings [6][19] Mass Consumer Goods - The dairy sector is experiencing a slight decline in production, but demand is showing signs of improvement. The introduction of a national child-rearing subsidy is expected to enhance long-term demand for dairy products [7][22] - The condiment industry is managing inventory pressures better than in previous years, with leading companies expected to achieve stable growth despite short-term challenges. Key players include Haitian Flavoring and Qianhe Flavoring [24] - The beer sector is facing challenges in the on-premise consumption channel, but companies are adapting by exploring new retail channels. Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer are highlighted as key recommendations [25][27] Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is entering a new normal with stable demand. The total revenue for the restaurant sector in the first half of 2025 reached 27,480 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3%. Companies are seeking new channels for growth, with recommendations for Guoquan and Lihai Foods [8][28] Key Individual Stocks - Kweichow Moutai is expected to maintain a strong market position with a projected revenue of 396.5 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a 7.26% year-on-year increase [31] - Wuliangye is anticipated to outperform the industry average, with revenue and profit growth expected to remain positive [31] - Yili Group is projected to achieve a revenue growth of around 8% in Q2 2025, benefiting from a favorable inventory situation [39]