Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the liquor segment, driven by increased market demand during the Spring Festival sales season and positive expectations for leading brands like Moutai [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage ETF Huabao (515710) saw a price increase of 1.53%, with a peak intraday gain of 2.04% [1][2]. - Key stocks in the liquor sector, such as Dongpeng Beverage, Xin Dairy, and Jiugui Liquor, reported gains exceeding 4%, while Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao rose over 3% [1][3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The rise in liquor stocks is attributed to the expanded market demand during the Spring Festival and optimistic expectations regarding Moutai's sales performance and quota policies [1][3]. - The current market environment has led to a renewed focus on the "certainty premium" and safe-haven attributes of high-end liquor, contributing to a rotation effect within the sector [1]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.37, placing it in the 8.61% percentile of the last decade [3]. - The low valuation and improving market sentiment provide a favorable entry point for long-term investments in the sector [3].

- The report introduces a quantitative model framework for market trend analysis, focusing on five asset style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value. The model evaluates assets based on their intrinsic attributes and prioritizes them using the sequence of g > ROE > D, analyzing whether there are "good assets" and whether they are "expensive" [5][8][9] - The model incorporates key factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (B/P). Each factor is associated with specific market phases, e.g., expected growth is relevant across all phases, while profitability is emphasized during maturity phases [9][12] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.67% since 2009. It has shown consistent excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017, with limited effectiveness in years like 2011, 2012, and 2016 [19][22] - The model's backtesting results for specific years include notable excess returns, such as 51% in 2009, 36% in 2013, and 62% in 2022. However, it also recorded underperformance in years like 2011 (-11%) and 2014 (-4%) [22] - The report details six specific strategies derived from the model, each focusing on different factors: - **Expected Growth Strategy**: Selects industries with the highest analyst-forecasted growth rates. Recent recommendations include sectors like automotive sales, lithium equipment, and tungsten [38][39] - **Actual Growth Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the highest unexpected growth (△g). Current recommendations include photovoltaic equipment, insurance, and coal chemical sectors [40][41] - **Profitability Strategy**: Targets high-ROE industries with low valuations under the PB-ROE framework. Recommended sectors include copper, liquor, and non-dairy beverages [43][44] - **Quality Dividend Strategy**: Utilizes a DP+ROE scoring system to identify industries. Current recommendations include forestry, lithium equipment, and fiberglass [46][47] - **Value Dividend Strategy**: Employs a DP+BP scoring system. Recommended sectors include security, daily chemicals, and buses [49][50] - **Bankruptcy Value Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores. Current recommendations include automotive sales, ceramics, and cotton textiles [53][54]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the consumption sector, particularly the consumption ETF (159928), which has seen significant inflows and trading activity [1][3] - The consumption ETF (159928) has recorded a net inflow of over 2.35 billion yuan in the last 20 days, with its latest scale exceeding 23 billion yuan, leading its peers [1][3] - Major stocks within the consumption ETF, such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, have shown positive price movements, indicating a robust market sentiment [3][4] Group 2 - The first central document of the year emphasizes the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, aiming to enhance living conditions and increase farmers' wealth [7][8] - The document sets a hard target for grain production to stabilize at around 1.4 trillion jin, underscoring the importance of food security [7] - The focus on expanding rural consumption is seen as a key economic task, with strategies to improve both infrastructure and quality of life in rural areas [8] Group 3 - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery, with positive sales growth in various categories, particularly frozen foods and hot pot ingredients [9][10] - The dairy market is experiencing a stabilization in raw milk prices, which is projected to positively impact the meat and dairy pricing cycle in 2026 [10] - The white liquor market is showing signs of bottoming out, with Kweichow Moutai expected to maintain its pricing power during the upcoming festive season [10]

Group 1 - The article highlights the target price increases for several listed companies, with Guizhou Moutai (600519) leading at a target price increase of 76.28%, followed by Juchip Technology at 61.28%, and BYD (002594) at 49.51% [1][3] - On February 3, a total of 29 listed companies received broker recommendations, with BYD receiving the highest number of recommendations at 3 [4] - The article mentions that 7 companies received first-time coverage from brokers, including China National Glass (600176) with a "recommend" rating and Olay New Materials with an "increase" rating [5][6] Group 2 - The highest target prices and corresponding target price increases for the companies are as follows: Guizhou Moutai at 2600.00 yuan, Juchip Technology at 85.96 yuan, and BYD at 130.63 yuan [3] - The sectors represented among the companies with the highest target price increases include liquor, semiconductors, and passenger vehicles [1][3] - The article provides a detailed list of companies and their respective broker ratings, indicating a diverse range of industries from consumer electronics to industrial metals [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor sector, particularly the baijiu stocks, is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by various factors, including market rotation, price recovery of premium products, and the upcoming traditional consumption peak during the Spring Festival [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Baijiu stocks surged early on February 4, with Kweichow Moutai rising by 2%, marking its stock price returning to 1500 yuan for the first time since September 15, 2025 [1]. - Other notable stocks such as Huangtai Liquor and Jiugui Liquor also hit their daily limit, while brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu saw increases [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - As of February 3, 2026, the price of Feitian Moutai increased across the board, with the original box price for 2026 reaching 1625 yuan per bottle, up by 35 yuan, and for 2025, it reached 1640 yuan, up by 20 yuan [2][3]. - The average inventory turnover days for baijiu companies is close to 4.5 years, indicating a significant backlog in stock [4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Adjustments - Several baijiu companies are facing challenges due to weakened market demand, particularly in high-end and mid-range products, leading to profit pressures [6]. - Companies are implementing various strategies to adapt, including inventory reduction, price stabilization, and product innovation to enhance brand visibility [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the baijiu sector is approaching a turning point, with potential bottoming out of the cycle, especially as the Spring Festival marketing activities are set to commence [8]. - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, indicating potential investment opportunities as market sentiment shifts [8].

Market Overview - On February 4, the A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning negative and the ChiNext Index dropping over 2%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2900 stocks declining [1]. Sector Performance - The space photovoltaic concept showed strong performance, with Zhonglai Co. hitting the daily limit and Guosheng Technology achieving two consecutive limits. The airport and shipping sectors also performed well, with China Eastern Airlines and Huaxia Airlines reaching their daily limits. The real estate sector was active, with Rong'an Real Estate and Caixin Development hitting their daily limits. The hydrogen energy concept surged, with Jingcheng Co. and Zhiyuan New Energy reaching their daily limits [4]. - The coal sector experienced a significant surge, with major coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and China Coal Energy both hitting their daily limits. Other stocks such as Shaanxi Black Cat and Meijin Energy also reached their daily limits, while Shaanxi Coal and Chemical, Shanxi Coal International, Xinji Energy, and China Shenhua followed suit [4]. Coal Supply Impact - Reports indicate that the Indonesian government has proposed a significant production cut, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports by local miners. China is the largest importer of Indonesian coal, with an expected import of 242 million tons in 2024, accounting for 42.73% of Indonesia's total exports. This suspension is projected to impact China's thermal coal supply by 5.3%, increasing inventory pressure on power plants in Southeast China. Additionally, there are reports of rising coal prices domestically [6]. Precious Metals Market - The precious metals sector opened with a rebound but later turned negative, with companies like Zijin Mining and Hunan Gold experiencing declines. The National Investment Silver LOF resumed trading and hit the daily limit down, with a latest premium rate of 64.6%. After significant drops on January 30 and February 2, spot gold prices rebounded to over $5000, while spot silver reached $88 per ounce [7]. - Market sentiment remains volatile, with speculative funds showing significant movement. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continues to pose risks. Overall, the precious metals market is influenced heavily by market emotions, with short-term volatility risks to be monitored, while long-term trends remain optimistic [7]. Individual Stock Highlights - Guizhou Moutai's stock rose over 2%, reaching a price above 1500 yuan for the first time since September 15, 2025 [8]. Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 2%, with many tech stocks in Hong Kong experiencing declines. Notable drops included Bilibili down over 4%, Tencent Holdings down over 3%, and other companies like Baidu, Lenovo, NetEase, Meituan, and Xiaomi all falling over 2% [9]. Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective downturn, with Bitcoin experiencing a high-level correction of nearly 40% [10].

Group 1 - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, with the "Dividend King" CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209) rising by 0.24% and Kweichow Moutai increasing nearly 2% for three consecutive days, indicating strong market interest [1] - There has been a net inflow of approximately 25 million, reaching a historical high, as per Wind Level 2 real-time market data [1] Group 2 - The first CSI Dividend Quality ETF linked fund (fund code: 026671) has officially launched, managed by China Merchants Fund, with the offering period from February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026 [3] - This linked fund primarily invests in the on-market trading of the China Merchants CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209), providing a convenient tool for off-market investors to engage in the "dividend quality" strategy [3] - The CSI Dividend Quality Index evaluates companies based on multiple dimensions such as profitability, growth quality, and financial stability, aiming to select high-quality listed companies that can sustain dividends while having good growth potential [3] - The fund features a cost structure of "0.15% + 0.05%", which is the lowest in the market, offering significant cost advantages for long-term holders [3] - The fund adopts a monthly assessment dividend mechanism, which better meets investors' cash flow needs and enhances the holding experience [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the HuShen 300 Growth ETF managed by Huaxia Fund Management, which has seen a return of 28.50% since its inception on September 5, 2023, and a return of 3.61% over the past month [1][1][1] - As of the midday close on February 4, the HuShen 300 Growth ETF (159523) decreased by 0.31%, with a trading volume of 2.2597 million yuan [1][1][1] - The top holdings of the ETF include companies such as CATL, which rose by 1.58%, Kweichow Moutai, which increased by 2.01%, and Zijin Mining, which saw a slight increase of 0.05% [1][1][1] Group 2 - Other notable stock performances within the ETF include Sunlight Power, which fell by 0.27%, Haiguang Information, which dropped by 3.51%, and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, which decreased by 2.14% [1][1][1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Select 300 Growth Innovation Strategy Index return rate [1][1][1] - The fund manager is Zhao Zongting, indicating a specific leadership in the management of the ETF [1][1][1]

来源：环球市场播报 2月3日，i茅台1月数据的公布在市场引发轩然大波，众多网友纷纷表示这一成绩堪称"炸裂"。从数据背 后不难看出，茅台消费者群体正在持续扩大，这一趋势不仅正在发生，也愈发被大众所认识。 与此同时，数据还释放出一个强烈信号——"巨大的"购买力被充分激活。基于此，有网友大胆预测， 2026年一季报茅台的业绩表现将十分亮眼，全年业绩大概率也将保持稳定，不会出现下滑态势。由此， 该网友对茅台这届管理层的判断力和能力给予了高度信任，认为他们在市场洞察和战略决策方面展现出 卓越水准。 对于i茅台所取得的亮眼成绩以及引发的市场关注，知名投资人段永平也发表了自己的看法。他指出，i 茅台最大的意义在于为消费者提供了一个可靠的购酒渠道，让人们清楚知道在哪里能够买到真酒。段永 平分析称，虽然假茅台的实际数量或许没有传闻中那么庞大，但假茅台对消费者心理造成的威胁却不容 小觑。这种心理威胁使得相当一部分想要品尝茅台酒（包括初次尝试）的消费者望而却步。而i茅台的 出现，有效缓解了消费者的这一顾虑，让大家看到的销量数据更能真实反映实际消费情况。 段永平还表示，i茅台的潜力尚未完全释放，其威力需要一定时间来显现。"看个一两年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector continues to strengthen, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing positive performance, reflecting a robust market trend in this industry [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF opened higher and reached a maximum intraday increase of 1.19%, closing with a gain of 0.68% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, including New Dairy Industry and Yanjing Beer, saw significant increases of over 3%, while several others, such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, rose by more than 1% [1][2]. Group 2: Company Announcements - Guizhou Moutai announced a share buyback of approximately 420,000 shares, representing 0.0333% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of about 571 million yuan [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to Guosen Securities, Moutai is expected to maintain a steady price increase and strong sales during the Spring Festival, which will lay a solid foundation for the company's performance throughout the year [3]. - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, making it an attractive time for investment [3]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to boost demand for food and beverage products, with a low performance baseline expected in the first quarter of 2026, further supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to beverage, dairy, and seasoning sectors [4]. - Investors can also consider the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF linked funds for exposure to core assets in this sector [4].