行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 证券分析师 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 22 日 美国通胀降温助推降息预期，金属 板块景气持续 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251215-20251219 究 报 告 相关研究 - 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.03%，深证成指下跌 0.89%，沪深 300 下跌 0.28%，有色金属 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the spot gold price has surged, breaking its previous record and achieving a year-to-date increase of over 65% due to multiple factors including central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and market re-evaluations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle [1] Group 2 - The spot gold price reached a new high of $4,381.484, surpassing the previous record set on October 20 [1] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) rose by 3.40%, with significant increases in individual stocks such as Silver and Nonferrous (up 9.85%) and China National Gold (up 7.12%) [1] - The gold stock ETF fund (159322) increased by 3.35%, with a latest price of 1.67 yuan [1] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF fund experienced a turnover of 6.5% and a transaction volume of 6.8171 million yuan [2] - The fund's scale grew by 520.98 million yuan over the past two weeks [2] - The index reflects the performance of 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, with the top ten stocks accounting for 68.26% of the index [2] Group 4 - The top ten weighted stocks in the gold industry index include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, with Zijin Mining holding the highest weight at 13.06% [3]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks experienced a strong rebound, with Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) rising over 7% [1] - China Gold International (02099.HK) saw an increase of more than 6% [1] - Other stocks such as Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK), Shandong Gold (01787.HK), and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) also followed the upward trend [1]

每经AI快讯，12月22日，现货黄金再创历史新高，港股黄金股震荡走强，灵宝黄金、中国黄金国际涨 超7%，山东黄金、赤峰黄金涨近5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the market have provided investors with opportunities to strategically position themselves for the upcoming "cross-year" market trends, particularly focusing on growth and dividend styles [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 22, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index (000010) increased by 0.65%, with notable gains from stocks such as Tuojing Technology (688072) up by 6.39%, China Duty Free Group (601888) up by 6.27%, and Zijin Mining (601899) up by 4.95% [1]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) rose by 0.58%, with the latest price reported at 1.21 yuan [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. **Growth in AI Technology**: The AI sector is expected to transition into industrial applications, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, particularly favoring domestic companies. Applications to watch include robotics, consumer electronics, smart driving, and software [2]. 2. **External Demand**: Companies with overseas expansion strategies are seen as reliable growth opportunities, particularly in sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, gaming, and non-ferrous metals [2]. 3. **Cyclical Reversal**: Attention is recommended on sectors nearing improvement in supply-demand dynamics or benefiting from policy support, such as chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy [2]. Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Market Catalysts - According to Huatai Securities, the upcoming spring market is anticipated to show positive momentum, driven by potential catalysts such as foreign capital position adjustments post-Christmas, the dense disclosure period for annual reports starting mid-January, and possible reserve requirement ratio cuts in January [3]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF closely tracks the Shanghai 180 Index, which comprises 180 large-cap, liquid stocks from the Shanghai market, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) showing a notable increase and substantial trading volume [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 9:58 AM, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) opened with a gap up, rising by 2.5% and seeing a significant increase in trading volume, with 200,000 net subscriptions recorded during the session [1]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector, such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, have shown strong performance, with Zijin Mining increasing by 4.66% and Shandong Gold by 4.37% [2][4]. Group 2: Commodity Trends - Precious metals are experiencing a surge, with spot gold rising over 1% to exceed $4,383 per ounce, setting a new historical high, while silver has also reached a record of over $67 per ounce [3]. - The overall non-ferrous metal sector has seen an impressive increase of over 85% this year, indicating a strong market performance [4]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - Following the December Federal Reserve policy decisions, a monthly operation of $40 billion in reserve management purchases is expected to provide liquidity support to the market [7]. - The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% to combat rising inflation, marking the highest rate in 30 years [7]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading investment vehicle, covering a wide range of metals including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing super cycle in the non-ferrous sector [18][20]. - The ETF has a high concentration of key metals, with copper accounting for 31% and gold for 14%, making it a competitive option in the market [20]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by factors such as declining real interest rates and increasing central bank gold purchases, with forecasts suggesting gold prices could exceed $4,500 per ounce in the near future [15][16]. - The copper market is also expected to see a growing supply-demand gap, with projections indicating that copper prices may reach new highs due to robust demand from emerging sectors like AI and renewable energy [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the gains, particularly highlighted by the significant increase in the Huabao ETF [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 22, the A-share major indices collectively rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector showing the highest gains, particularly the Huabao ETF which saw a jump of 2.15% [1][10]. - The Huabao ETF's current price is close to its listing high of 0.958 yuan, indicating strong market interest [1][10]. Group 2: Sector Leaders - In the non-ferrous metals sector, leading companies such as Hailiang Co. and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals surged over 6%, while Zijin Mining rose more than 4% [3][12]. - Gold sector leaders including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold also saw increases exceeding 3% [3][12]. Group 3: Industry Fundamentals - The non-ferrous metals industry is characterized by a clear trend of upstream strength over midstream and downstream, driven by rising commodity prices and structural growth in downstream demand [5][14]. - In the first three quarters, 141 listed companies in the non-ferrous sector achieved a total revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, with net profit increasing by 41.55% to 151.29 billion yuan [5][14]. Group 4: Policy Outlook - The policy direction for the non-ferrous metals industry emphasizes high-quality development, with a target of an average annual growth of 5% in value-added output by 2026 [5][14]. - The "Stable Growth" initiative is a key focus, with plans for the production of ten types of non-ferrous metals to grow by 1.5% annually and recycled metal production to exceed 20 million tons [5][14]. Group 5: Future Projections - Analysts predict that non-ferrous and precious metals will be at the forefront of the upward trend in 2026, with gold prices potentially challenging the historical high of $5,000 per ounce [5][14]. - Citigroup forecasts that copper prices will continue to rise in 2026, supported by improving fundamentals and macroeconomic conditions [5][14]. Group 6: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Huabao ETF, which covers various non-ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, is recommended to mitigate risks [7][15]. - This strategy allows investors to capture the overall sector performance while reducing exposure to individual metal price fluctuations [7][15].

Group 1 - Platinum prices reached a peak of $1987 per ounce on December 19, marking the highest level since late July 2008, with an annual increase of over 110% [1] - Silver prices surged above $67.49 per ounce, setting a new historical high [1] - The SHFE gold price hit 987 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 0.96% as of December 22, 2025, with notable increases in stocks such as Yahua Group (002497) up 1.90%, and China Aluminum (601600) up 1.84% [1] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF (159880) increased by 0.77%, with the latest price at 1.84 yuan [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 52.34% of the index, including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [2]

Group 1: Legal Framework Development in Shandong - The Shandong Provincial Committee held a meeting to promote comprehensive rule of law in the province, focusing on legislative, administrative, and judicial improvements [1][2] - Emphasis was placed on scientific legislation, optimizing the business environment, and enhancing public legal services [1][2] - The meeting aims to strengthen the rule of law as a foundation for high-quality economic and social development in Shandong [2] Group 2: Government Investment Fund Development - Shandong issued implementation opinions to promote the high-quality development of government investment funds, aligning with national guidelines [3] - The opinions stress a structured approach to fund management, emphasizing risk-sharing and regulatory compliance [3] - The initiative aims to enhance the effectiveness of government investment funds in supporting economic and social development [3] Group 3: Shandong's Top Enterprises - The 2025 list of Shandong's top 200 enterprises shows a total revenue of 10.34 trillion, with Shandong Energy Group leading at 866.48 billion [4][5] - The top ten companies include major players like Weiqiao Pioneering Group and Haier Group, reflecting a strong industrial base [4][5] - Industrial enterprises contribute 76.8% of the revenue among the top 200, highlighting the industrial characteristics of Shandong's economy [4] Group 4: Innovation in Power Generation - The world's first commercial supercritical carbon dioxide power generation unit was successfully commissioned in Guizhou, marking a significant technological milestone [6][7] - This technology improves efficiency by over 50% and reduces water consumption by 50%, showcasing advancements in energy generation [6][7] - The project represents a key step for Jinan Steel Group in transitioning from traditional manufacturing to green technology [7]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Jinlan (Jinan) Industrial Investment Partnership with a capital contribution of approximately 9.9 billion yuan signifies a strategic move by Shandong Gold Group and Shandong Hi-Speed Group to engage in investment activities using their own funds [1] Group 1 - The newly formed partnership has a total investment amount of around 9.9 billion yuan [1] - The operational scope of the partnership includes engaging in investment activities with self-owned funds [1] - The partnership is co-funded by Shandong Gold Group and Shandong Hi-Speed Group among others [1]