FF301 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 5,299,302,579 | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 600585 | 說明 | A股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,999,702,579 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 3,999,702,579 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,999,702,579 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 3,999,702,579 | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huadong Securities has given a "buy" rating to Conch Cement (600585.SH) with a latest price of 24.33 yuan [1] - The reasons for the rating include a decrease in cement clinker volume but an increase in price, leading to improved profitability despite revenue pressure [1] - There is an expectation for an improved supply-demand balance in the second half of the year, which may lead to a price recovery [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction materials sector, highlighting opportunities in AI materials, overseas expansion, and transformation strategies [4]. Core Insights - The cement industry is experiencing profit recovery through price increases and cost reductions, with strong overseas performance and ongoing supply-side checks on overproduction [4]. - Consumer building materials remain at a low point in terms of market conditions, but leading companies are showing signs of recovery; balance sheet improvements are gradual and vary by company [4]. - The fiberglass sector is benefiting from high demand for specialty fiberglass driven by AI, while traditional fiberglass margins continue to improve [4]. - The glass industry is in a bottoming phase, with ongoing monitoring of supply-side changes [4]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on AI PCB upstream new materials, leading companies with high technical barriers, and products that are rapidly upgraded, as well as opportunities in the "Belt and Road" initiative [4]. Cement Industry Analysis - The report provides a profit forecast and valuation for the cement sector, indicating a slight decline in sales volume for major players like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement in H1 2025, with overall national cement production down 4.3% [14][13]. - The report notes that the cement industry's profit recovery is expected as supply-side checks on overproduction are implemented [14]. - The overseas expansion of companies like Huaxin and Conch Cement is highlighted as a significant growth area, with Huaxin establishing bases in 12 countries and Conch increasing its overseas clinker capacity [14]. Consumer Building Materials Overview - The consumer building materials sector is currently facing challenges, with a significant decline in construction activity and a focus on finding demand bottoms [17]. - Companies like Keda Manufacturing and Sanke Tree are showing resilience through overseas expansion and strong performance in non-real estate sectors [17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of business transformation and the progress of companies adapting to new market conditions, such as Keda's acquisition of new technology and partnerships [17]. Financial Performance Metrics - The report includes detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating trends in revenue, profit margins, and market valuations [13][24]. - Notable improvements in gross margins for companies like Sanke Tree and Keda Manufacturing are reported, reflecting successful cost management and pricing strategies [23][24]. - The report also highlights the cash flow and receivables situation for consumer building materials companies, indicating varying levels of financial health and operational efficiency [19][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's profitability is improving, with attention on positive changes from the supply side [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 41.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.38%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.34% to 4.368 billion yuan [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the average price of cement and clinker was 274.31 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.28 yuan/ton year-on-year, while the average cost decreased by 9.25 yuan/ton, leading to a comprehensive gross profit margin of 28.41%, up by 5.70 percentage points [5] - The company sold a total of 12.7 million tons of cement and clinker, a slight decrease of 0.09% year-on-year [5] - The forecast for operating revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 93.285 billion yuan, 100.296 billion yuan, and 106.363 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 9.871 billion yuan, 10.728 billion yuan, and 11.022 billion yuan [6][5] Market Outlook - The supply-demand dynamics in the cement industry are expected to improve in the second half of 2025, driven by government investments in infrastructure and major strategic projects, although the real estate market remains under pressure [5] - The average PE ratio for the company is projected to be 13.1, 12.0, and 11.7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, compared to the average valuation of comparable companies at 14.8 times PE [5][7]

Group 1 - The report highlights a shift in the macro narrative affecting the A-share market, driven by internal policies aimed at demand stimulation and external factors such as a weakening dollar [5][6]. - The report identifies a rotation in investment focus from TMT and manufacturing sectors to other areas, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-low switching strategies in the technology sector, recommending stocks like Kunlun Wanwei, Leisai Intelligent, and Jingchen Co. for investment [5][10][14]. Group 2 - Kunlun Wanwei is focusing on AI business development, with significant advancements in AI chip research and application, leading to a positive outlook for its commercialization potential [10][11]. - Leisai Intelligent is expanding its market share in the automation sector, leveraging its strong product matrix and partnerships to capture growth opportunities [14][15]. - Jingchen Co. is experiencing robust growth in its AIoT and WiFi chip segments, with significant sales increases and a strong customer base [19][20]. Group 3 - Conch Cement is positioned to benefit from supply-side reforms and industry policy improvements, which are expected to enhance profitability and market conditions [24][25]. - Luzhou Laojiao is implementing proactive marketing strategies to adapt to market cycles, aiming to capture demand in emerging consumer segments [30][31]. - Jerry Holdings is poised for recovery as it capitalizes on the resurgence of high-end liquor demand and maintains a strong digital marketing framework [34][35]. Group 4 - New Hope Liuhe is leveraging its integrated supply chain advantages in the fine chemical sector, focusing on vitamin and amino acid production to enhance competitiveness [39][40]. - Xinhecheng is expected to benefit from rising prices in the vitamin market and increased demand for its amino acid products, supported by its strong production capabilities [39][41]. - Newnovel is projected to see significant revenue growth driven by its innovative drug pipeline, particularly in the oncology sector [43][44]. Group 5 - The report anticipates that the financial technology sector, represented by companies like Zhinan Zhen, will continue to grow as it transitions into comprehensive financial service providers [48][49]. - Zhinan Zhen's strategic acquisitions and capital operations are expected to enhance its market position and profitability in the coming years [48][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [1][2] Core Insights - Recent policies in Beijing and Shanghai have relaxed housing purchase restrictions, which is expected to boost market confidence and sales [2][26] - The overall performance of listed real estate companies remains under pressure, with a focus on the recovery of their balance sheets [2][28] - The building materials sector is experiencing a gradual recovery in demand, particularly in cement and glass fiber, driven by urban renewal projects and seasonal construction activities [3][44] Real Estate Sector Summary - The real estate sector has seen a 0.97% increase over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.25 percentage points [14] - The sector's performance is influenced by recent policy changes aimed at stabilizing the market and improving sales data [2][26] - Key companies to watch include Poly Developments, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou, which are focusing on first- and second-tier cities [2][28] Building Materials Sector Summary - The building materials sector has increased by 2.86% over the past two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 19.28% [29] - Cement prices are stabilizing, with a national average price of 316 RMB per ton, while inventory levels are gradually decreasing [33][44] - The glass fiber industry is showing signs of structural recovery, benefiting from demand in wind power and electronics sectors [3][45] Company Performance Highlights - In the consumer building materials segment, leading companies like Sanke Tree and Rabbit Baby have shown significant profit recovery, with Sanke Tree's net profit increasing by 109.30% year-on-year [48] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and competitive advantages, such as Beixin Building Materials and Sanke Tree [48]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Conch Cement (600585)(00914) achieved a net profit of 4.6 billion RMB in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% [1] Financial Performance - Excluding one-time items related to capacity replacement provisions, the recurring net profit reached 5.1 billion RMB, up 32% year-on-year [1] - The better-than-expected performance is attributed to improved profit margins in the overseas cement business and stronger-than-expected results in ready-mixed concrete (RMC) and aggregate businesses [1] Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has reduced its recurring net profit forecast for the current year by 13% to reflect the ongoing low profit margins in the domestic cement market, while maintaining forecasts for the next two years largely unchanged [1] Target Price Changes - The target price for H-shares has been raised from 27 HKD to 31 HKD, and the target price for A-shares (600585.SH) has been increased from 27 RMB to 32 RMB, with a "Buy" rating maintained [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reported that Conch Cement (00914) achieved a net profit of 4.6 billion RMB in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% [1] Financial Performance - Excluding one-time items related to capacity replacement provisions, the recurring net profit reached 5.1 billion RMB, up 32% year-on-year [1] - The performance exceeded expectations, primarily benefiting from improved profit margins in the overseas cement business and better-than-expected results in ready-mixed concrete (RMC) and aggregate businesses [1] Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs lowered its recurring net profit forecast for the current year by 13% to reflect the ongoing low profit margins in the domestic cement market, while maintaining forecasts for the next two years largely unchanged [1] Target Price Changes - The target price for H-shares was raised from 27 HKD to 31 HKD, and the target price for A-shares (600585.SH) was increased from 27 RMB to 32 RMB, with a "Buy" rating maintained [1]

Summary of Anhui Conch Cement (0914.HK) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Anhui Conch Cement - **Stock Codes**: 0914.HK (Hong Kong), 600585.SS (Shanghai) - **Market Cap**: HK$126.8 billion / $16.3 billion - **Industry**: Basic Materials, specifically Cement Production Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Net Profit**: Rmb4.6 billion, EPS of Rmb0.874/share, up 33% YoY [1] - **Recurring Net Profit**: Rmb5.1 billion, up 32% YoY, excluding one-offs [1] - **Interim Dividend**: Proposed Rmb0.24/share, 27% payout ratio, compared to nil in previous interims [1] - **Sales Volume**: 126 million tons of self-produced cement, flat YoY, outperforming national market decline of -4.3% [23] - **Gross Profit from Cement**: Increased by 34% YoY, driven by higher unit profit in domestic and overseas markets [23] Earnings Estimates and Projections - **2025E Recurring Earnings**: Revised down by 13% due to persistent low cement margins in China [2] - **2026E and 2027E Earnings Growth**: Expected growth of 34% and 3% respectively [2] - **Price Target**: Revised to HK$31.00 / Rmb32.00, implying a 2026E P/E of 10.4x [2] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: Expected to be Rmb6.7-12.7 billion in 2025-26E, with a FCF yield of 5.5-10.5% [22] Operational Insights - **Cement Operations**: Contributed 84% of total gross profit, with improved overseas margins from pricing recovery in Uzbekistan and Cambodia [23] - **Aggregate and RMC Operations**: Gross profit above expectations, with RMC sales up 3% YoY [24] - **Cost Management**: Total SG&A better than expected due to lower administrative costs [25] - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow increased by 21% YoY in 1H25A, with slight improvements in working capital management [26] Market and Industry Outlook - **Cement Pricing**: Expected to improve in 2026E and 2027E due to industry control on unauthorized capacity [2][38] - **Risks**: 1. Weaker-than-expected property and infrastructure demand affecting utilization and pricing [40] 2. Slower exit from unauthorized cement capacity leading to depressed prices [40] 3. Increased competition and potential new production lines affecting market share [40] 4. Rising raw material costs impacting margins [40] Valuation Metrics - **P/E Ratios**: 2025E at 11.4x, 2026E at 7.9x [13] - **P/B Ratios**: 2025E at 0.6x, 2026E at 0.6x [13] - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to be 4.3% in 2025E and 6.5% in 2026E [22] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating on Anhui Conch Cement, with an attractive risk-reward profile based on potential margin improvements and strong cash flow generation [2][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering the profit growth driven by investment returns and the positive shift in free cash flow [4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 3.086 billion CNY, showing a year-over-year decline of 1.55%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.286 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.33%, slightly exceeding expectations [4]. - The profit growth is primarily attributed to the increased contributions from joint ventures, particularly from Conch Cement, which contributed 839 million CNY, a year-over-year increase of 19.72% [4]. - The company has confirmed a cash flow turning point, with operating cash flow at 915 million CNY, slightly down year-over-year, but free cash flow turned positive at 366 million CNY, leading to the announcement of an interim dividend of 0.10 HKD per share [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections show a decline from 8,015 million CNY in 2023 to 5,580 million CNY by 2027, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 2%, -22%, -2%, -4%, and -5% [3][5]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 2,464 million CNY in 2023 to 2,540 million CNY in 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of -18%, 16%, 4%, and 4% [3][5]. - Earnings per share are projected to rise from 1.37 CNY in 2023 to 1.42 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings ratio decreasing from 7.2 to 7.0 over the same period [3][5].