Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, suggesting a focus on optional consumption and service consumption price performance, particularly in the context of the recent recovery in trading sentiment [1][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a gradual decline in its economic climate, with expectations hinging on actual consumption performance validating recent policy implementations [1][7]. - The report highlights that the price stability of premium liquor, particularly the slight recovery in the price of Feitian Moutai, is positively impacting channel profits and asset expectations [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming performance period will primarily focus on clearing inventory, with expectations for improved feedback from channels and liquor companies as the spring festival approaches [8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector's PE-TTM is approximately 20X, positioned at the 13th percentile over the past three years and the 8th percentile over the past five years, indicating it is still in a cyclical bottom range [2][8]. - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks with potential catalysts, including national brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from robust consumer demand [2][8]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is showing signs of recovery, with categories like sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and protein drinks experiencing strong growth [3][9]. - East Peak's annual report indicates a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% [3][9]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new channels and product innovations driving growth, despite market expectations of a slowdown in Q1 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for high growth in 2025 through category exploration and channel expansion, recommending companies like Weilang and Yanjin Puzhou [10]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with the seasoning segment performing relatively well due to the trend of restaurant chain standardization [11]. - The report suggests that as restaurant consumption policies strengthen, related sectors may see significant performance elasticity and valuation improvements, recommending stocks like Angel Yeast and Qingdao Beer [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the potential for recovery in valuations and consumption driven by government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][8]. Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes the importance of consumption, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and improve residents' income in line with economic growth. This is expected to positively impact the food and beverage sector as it is considered a post-cycle industry [4][8]. - The report suggests that while the first quarter of 2025 may face challenges in sales for the liquor sector, improvements in the economy in the second half of the year could lead to a recovery in the industry's fundamentals and stock prices [4][8]. - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in leading companies within the liquor sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Kweichow Moutai, as well as in the broader consumer goods sector, which is expected to see rational revenue and profit improvements [4][8]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.74% increase last week, with liquor stocks rising by 1.53%, although the sector underperformed compared to the broader market [7][30]. - The report indicates that the liquor market is experiencing a price stabilization phase, with key products showing signs of bottoming out in pricing [9][30]. Liquor Sector Insights - Current prices for major liquor brands include Moutai at 2,210 RMB per bottle and 2,255 RMB per case, with slight weekly increases. Wuliangye remains stable at approximately 930 RMB [9][18]. - The report notes that the liquor sector is facing pressure on sales, but if leading companies maintain their pricing strategies, the market may stabilize further in the second quarter [9][30]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report highlights that consumer goods companies are expected to adopt more rational operational goals, leading to improved revenue and profitability in 2025. New retail formats are anticipated to drive growth in certain product categories [4][8]. - Specific companies such as Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Mengniu Dairy are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from supportive policies and market trends [4][8]. Key Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 15.84 billion RMB in 2024, a 40.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.33 billion RMB, reflecting a 63.1% growth [12][17]. - The company demonstrated strong cash flow performance, with cash receipts from sales reaching 20.43 billion RMB, a 47% increase compared to the previous year [12][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is maintained as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The heavy holding ratio in the food and beverage sector has decreased, while the overweight ratio has slightly increased. As of Q4 2024, the total market value of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector is 309.25 billion, down by 41.40 billion from the previous quarter, with a heavy holding ratio of 4.56%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points [1][12][14] - The white liquor sector has seen a significant decline in heavy holding ratios, while the majority of the consumer goods sector has increased. The heavy holding ratio for the white liquor sector is 3.95%, down by 0.65 percentage points, while other sub-sectors like beverage and dairy have shown increases [1][15][17] Summary by Sections Heavy Holding Ratios - In Q4 2024, the food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio ranks third among 31 primary industries, below the five-year average of 7.27%, indicating potential for growth [1][12] - The heavy holding market value in the food and beverage sector accounts for 11.73% of the total heavy holdings, a decrease of 0.52 percentage points [14] Sub-sector Performance - The white liquor sector's heavy holding ratio has decreased significantly, while the majority of consumer goods sub-sectors have increased. The beverage and dairy sub-sector's heavy holding ratio rose to 0.28%, while non-white liquor and snack food sectors also saw slight increases [15][17][18] - The heavy holding ratio for the food processing sub-sector has continued to decline, now at 1.30%, the lowest among all sub-sectors [18] Individual Stock Analysis - The top ten heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector are dominated by white liquor stocks, with seven out of ten positions held by white liquor companies. The overall heavy holding ratio for these top ten stocks is 4.22%, down by 0.44 percentage points [2][28] - The leading companies in heavy holdings include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with Kweichow Moutai maintaining the highest heavy holding ratio at 2.05% [28][30] Investment Recommendations - Despite the overall weak recovery in consumption, it is anticipated that policies to boost consumption will be strengthened in 2025, presenting opportunities in the food and beverage sector. Key areas to focus on include: - White liquor: Expecting demand recovery to alleviate inventory pressure, particularly in mid-range and mass-market segments [3] - Beer: Cost reductions are expected to enhance profitability, with a recovery in demand for mid-to-high-end beers [3] - Seasoning products: Continued cost advantages and health-oriented demand are seen as growth drivers [3] - Dairy products: Approaching a cost inflection point, with price wars expected to ease [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to Tsingtao Brewery-H (168 HK) with a target price of HK$56.20 [2][4] - The target price represents a 7% upside from the current price of HK$52.55 [3] - The rating was downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" due to a weaker macro environment and lower growth expectations [4][10] Core Views - Tsingtao Brewery's sales decline is expected to narrow in 4Q24, with a projected year-on-year drop of 2.7%, compared to a 5.1% drop in 3Q24 [8] - The company's gross margin is expected to benefit from lower raw material costs, with a 1.6% year-on-year decline in cost per ton [8] - Adjusted net loss is expected to narrow slightly to RMB 625 million in 4Q24 from RMB 714 million in 4Q23, driven by better gross margins and operating expense control [8] - The new chairman is expected to continue the current strategy, focusing on efficiency improvement and margin expansion [9] - Revenue and net profit are expected to grow at a single-digit rate in 2025, with free cash flow increasing from RMB 1.2 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.6 billion in 2024, providing room for shareholder returns [9] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 29.527 billion, a 6.4% decline from 2023A, while 2025E revenue is expected to grow by 3.0% to RMB 30.418 billion [12] - Adjusted EPS for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 3.16, a 3% decline from the previous estimate of RMB 3.25 [4] - Adjusted net profit for 2025E is expected to grow by 7.7% to RMB 4.662 billion, with free cash flow increasing significantly [9] - Gross margin is expected to improve to 35.9% in 2024E and 36.2% in 2025E, driven by stable raw material prices [15] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The target price of HK$56.20 is based on a 7.6x 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with global peers [10] - Tsingtao Brewery-H's 2025E P/E ratio of 14.3x is comparable to its domestic peers, such as China Resources Beer (12.2x) and Budweiser APAC (13.9x) [16] - The company's 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.9x is slightly lower than the global peer average of 7.6x [16] Market and Industry Outlook - The domestic beer market is expected to stabilize, with Tsingtao Brewery's sales volume projected to grow by 1.0% in 2025, while the average price per ton is expected to increase by 2.0% [9] - The government is expected to continue introducing consumption stimulus plans to aid market recovery [9] - Competition in the high-end beer market may ease, potentially benefiting Tsingtao Brewery's revenue growth [23] Key Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024E/2025E/2026E were lowered by 1.8%/3.1%/3.1% due to weaker-than-expected domestic consumption recovery [14] - Adjusted EPS forecasts for 2024E/2025E/2026E were revised down by 2.8%/7.1%/6.9% [15] - Gross margin forecasts for 2025E/2026E were reduced by 1.0/0.9 percentage points, reflecting lower-than-expected price growth [14]

证券代码：600600 证券简称：青岛啤酒 公告编号：2025-001 青岛啤酒股份有限公司第十届董事会 第十九次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、 董事会会议召开情况 青岛啤酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第十届董事会第十九次会议（以下简称"会 议"）于 2025 年 1 月 10 日以现场结合视频会议方式召开，会议通知及会议材料已按照《青岛 啤酒股份有限公司章程》（以下简称"《公司章程》"）规定及时以书面方式送达全体董事。会 议应出席董事 7 人，实际出席董事 7 人。会议由董事长姜宗祥先生主持，公司董事会秘书列 席参加。会议的召开、表决符合《中华人民共和国公司法》等相关法律、法规及上市地上市 规则以及《公司章程》的规定。 二、 董事会会议审议情况 表决情况：有权表决票 7 票，同意 7 票、反对 0 票、弃权 0 票，通过。 1 (一)审议通过青岛啤酒财务有限责任公司（"财务公司"）2025 年度有价证券投资专项业 务规划。 1. 同意财务公司在有效防控风险、确保资金安全的前提下，有价证 ...

证券代码：600600 证券简称：青岛啤酒 公告编号：2025-002 青岛啤酒股份有限公司第十届监事会 第十九次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2、审议通过公司与青岛啤酒集团有限公司及其附属公司签署有关 2025 年度 日常关联交易（持续关连交易）事项的框架协议及确定其交易上限的议案。 表决情况：有权表决票 5 票，同意 5 票、反对 0 票、弃权 0 票，通过。 特此公告。 青岛啤酒股份有限公司监事会 2025 年 1 月 14 日 青岛啤酒股份有限公司（"公司"）第十届监事会第十九次会议（"会议"）于 2025 年 1 月 9 日在青啤大厦会议室以现场结合视频会议的方式召开，会议通知 及会议材料已于会前向全体监事发出，会议应出席监事 5 人，实际出席监事 5 人，会议由公司监事会临时召集人李燕女士主持。本次会议的召集和召开符合《中 华人民共和国公司法》等法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件和《青岛啤酒 股份有限公司章程》的规定。 二、监事会会议审议情况 经全体监事审议表决，通过了以下议案： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected relative stock price returns of over 20% within 6 months [7][23] Core Views - The company's production and sales strategies are expected to remain consistent, with no significant changes due to leadership transitions [4] - The new chairman, Jiang Zongxiang, brings extensive experience in corporate governance, strategic management, digital transformation, and supply chain management, which is expected to drive continued innovation and profitability [2][4] - The company is expected to benefit from external factors such as consumption promotion policies and the recovery of dining and nightlife scenes, which will boost beer demand and upgrade speed [7] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to decline by 5% in 2024, followed by growth of 3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, reaching RMB 33.7 billion by 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 3%, 10%, and 8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reaching RMB 5.23 billion by 2026 [7] - EBITDA is forecasted to increase from RMB 6.08 billion in 2023 to RMB 7.84 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.9% [5] - EPS is projected to grow from RMB 3.13 in 2023 to RMB 3.83 in 2026 [5] Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is expected to decline from 25.01x in 2023 to 20.42x in 2026, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [5] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 12.80x in 2023 to 10.25x in 2026, reflecting better operational efficiency [5] - The P/B ratio is forecasted to drop from 3.89x in 2023 to 3.39x in 2026, suggesting a more favorable valuation [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on improving operational quality and implementing an ERP system in 2024, which is expected to enhance efficiency [7] - The new management team is expected to lead the company towards high-quality development, with a focus on innovation, brand influence, and profitability [4][7] Industry Context - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the non-baijiu segment, with a strong focus on beer production and sales [9] - The industry is expected to benefit from the recovery of consumption scenarios, which will drive demand for beer and accelerate product upgrades [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The internal promotion of General Jiang as the new chairman is expected to maintain strategic continuity for the company. The company is anticipated to benefit from restaurant recovery and enhanced management, providing strong elasticity in the mid-term. The company is viewed as a high-quality stock with both offensive and defensive capabilities, focusing on resilience and improved dividend yield as key strategies [3][19] - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected to be 319.77 billion, 330.06 billion, and 339.75 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 44.56 billion, 50.28 billion, and 55.38 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are 23.9, 21.2, and 19.3 times [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023, total revenue was 33,937 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31,977 million, 33,006 million, and 33,975 million yuan, with expected year-on-year changes of -5.8%, 3.2%, and 2.9% respectively [4] - The net profit for 2023 was 4,268 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.0%. The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4,456 million, 5,028 million, and 5,538 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 4.4%, 12.8%, and 10.1% respectively [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 38.7% in 2023 to 43.5% in 2026, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 15.5% to 16.7% over the same period [4] Market Position and Strategy - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's sales decreased by 6.98% year-on-year, underperforming the overall beer industry, which saw a decline of 1.5%. This was attributed to weak sales dynamics and a conservative marketing approach due to delayed management transitions [5] - The company is positioned as a high-quality leader in the Chinese beer market, with a focus on resilience and capital expenditure discipline. The expectation of significant dividend yield increases in the future is highlighted as a key defensive strategy [6][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tsingtao Brewery (600600 SH) with a target price of 78 23 CNY as of December 25 [4][17] Core Views - Tsingtao Brewery elected Mr Jiang Zongxiang as the new Chairman and President replacing Mr Huang Kexing who retired due to age [2] - The beer industry showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024 with China's beer production increasing by 1 7% YoY in October November compared to declines of 5 4% and 5 3% in Q2 and Q3 respectively [3] - The report expects the beer industry to achieve both volume and price increases in 2025 driven by policy catalysts and recovery in on premise channels like dining [3] - Tsingtao Brewery's beer sales declined by 7 0% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the industry's 1 5% decline indicating pressure release [15] - The new leadership is expected to drive better volume and price performance than the industry in 2025 [15] - The company's dividend payout ratio was 64% in 2023 and is expected to increase steadily in the future [15] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 32 002 million CNY in 2024 a 5 7% YoY decline followed by 5 0% and 4 2% growth in 2025 and 2026 respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 4 443 million CNY in 2024 (+4 1% YoY) 4 907 million CNY in 2025 (+10 4% YoY) and 5 325 million CNY in 2026 (+8 5% YoY) [4][5] - EPS is expected to be 3 26 CNY in 2024 3 60 CNY in 2025 and 3 90 CNY in 2026 [5] - ROE is projected to remain stable at around 15 3% 15 9% and 16 3% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The PE ratio is estimated at 24x 22x and 20x for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [4][5] Industry Outlook - The beer industry is expected to benefit from cost advantages in 2025 leading to improved profit performance [3] - Historically the beer sector has outperformed the food and beverage industry from March to June during 2020 2022 [3] - If the industry achieves volume and price recovery in 2025 it could lead to strong performance in the sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [2][3] Core Insights - The company is undergoing a leadership transition with the appointment of Jiang Zongxiang as the new chairman, which is expected to initiate a new development cycle [1] - The beer industry is anticipated to recover in 2025, driven by the new management team and a rebound in restaurant consumption, which will positively impact beer sales [1] - The company has a strong shareholder return strategy, with dividend payout ratios of 47.6%, 66.2%, and 63.9% from 2021 to 2023, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 project net profits of 44.3 billion, 50.1 billion, and 53.5 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 3.9%, 13.0%, and 6.7% respectively [1] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 32.183 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of -5.2%, followed by 33.748 billion yuan in 2025 and 34.565 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 4.9% and 2.4% respectively [33] - The company's net profit for 2024 is estimated at 4.433 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.9%, 13.0%, and 6.7% for the following years [33] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 3.25 yuan, increasing to 3.67 yuan in 2025 and 3.92 yuan in 2026 [33]