迎接 6 月基本面拐点 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.05 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——煤炭行业周报 | [table_Authors] 黄涛(分析师) | 王楠瑀(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880515090001 | S0880123060041 | 本报告导读： 煤价底部企稳，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预计煤价拐点 就在 6 月，当前就是基本面拐点。 投资要点： [投资建议： Table_Summary] 从板块推荐角度，依然推荐红利的核心中国神华、陕西煤业、 中煤能源；继续推荐兖矿能源、晋控煤业。 疆煤外运及内蒙的铁路运费再次下调，背后或反应新疆内蒙外运大规模 亏损压力。上周疆煤外运及内蒙的铁路运费再次下调，物流成本继续下 降。旺季来临时候下调运费，显示出产地，新疆内蒙外运大规模亏损压 力，运量下降倒逼铁路降价，在当前 620 元港口价格下已经刻不容缓， 侧面反映两大产地压力。我们认为 4 月全国产量 ...

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing significant supply contraction due to falling prices, with over 53.64% of coal companies reporting losses as of April 2025, the highest level since 2018 [1][20][22] - Electricity demand is expected to rebound with the onset of summer, as average daily power generation showed a year-on-year increase of 3.32% in mid-May 2025, despite a 14.37% decline in hydroelectric power generation [1][59] - A strong expectation for a rebound in thermal coal prices is anticipated as demand increases with rising temperatures, potentially peaking during the July-August consumption high [2][59] Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly, with April 2025 coal production down 11.64% month-on-month, primarily due to reductions in output from regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [20][59] - The decline in coal imports, which fell by 16.4% year-on-year in April 2025, is expected to support the domestic market [24][26] - The overall supply reduction is greater than the demand decrease, indicating that coal prices are currently in an oversold state [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include industry leaders with stable performance such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as growth-oriented companies like Jinkong Coal and Shanmei International [3] - The report highlights the defensive value of leading companies with low debt and high cash flow, which are expected to benefit from market confidence and potential asset injections [2][3] Price Outlook - Thermal coal prices are expected to rebound due to seasonal demand increases and supply tightening, with a peak anticipated during the summer consumption high [2][59] - Coking coal prices are projected to stabilize, supported by a bottoming out of thermal coal prices and potential increases in export demand due to easing trade tensions [2][60]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43% on June 3, with 20 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains. The top-performing sectors were Beauty Care and Textile & Apparel, with increases of 3.86% and 2.53% respectively. Conversely, the sectors that saw the largest declines were Household Appliances and Steel, down by 2.10% and 1.37% respectively [1]. Coal Industry Performance - The coal industry experienced a decline of 0.84% today, with a net inflow of main funds amounting to 1.1917 million yuan. Out of 37 stocks in this sector, 10 stocks rose while 21 stocks fell [1]. - Among the stocks with net inflows, China Shenhua led with a net inflow of 75.25 million yuan, followed by Jizhong Energy and Huaihe Energy with net inflows of 26.77 million yuan and 12.99 million yuan respectively [1]. - The stocks with significant net outflows included Anyuan Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Jinkong Coal Industry, with net outflows of 28.65 million yuan, 22.61 million yuan, and 18.90 million yuan respectively [1]. Coal Industry Fund Flow Data - The following table summarizes the fund flow data for key coal stocks: - China Shenhua: -0.99% change, 0.17% turnover rate, 75.25 million yuan inflow - Jizhong Energy: -1.19% change, 0.85% turnover rate, 26.77 million yuan inflow - Huaihe Energy: 0.56% change, 1.03% turnover rate, 12.99 million yuan inflow - Anyuan Coal Industry: -4.14% change, 3.42% turnover rate, 28.65 million yuan outflow - Lu'an Environmental Energy: -0.47% change, 0.41% turnover rate, 22.61 million yuan outflow - Jinkong Coal Industry: -1.40% change, 0.93% turnover rate, 18.90 million yuan outflow [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10]. Core Insights - The recent environmental inspections by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in five provinces are expected to influence coal supply and prices, but their impact may not be significant enough to drive price increases alone. However, if these inspections coincide with improved demand, there could be upward pressure on coal prices [2][7]. - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.27% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.82 percentage points, ranking 26th out of 32 industries [6][25]. - As of May 30, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 611 RMB/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1270 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton from the previous week [6][25]. Summary by Sections Environmental Inspections Impact - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has initiated inspections in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shaanxi, and Ningxia, lasting about one month. Historical data suggests that previous inspections did not significantly suppress coal supply, indicating that the current inspections may not independently drive price increases [2][7]. Market Performance - The coal sector's performance this week showed a decline of 0.27%, with thermal coal and coking coal indices experiencing slight variations. The thermal coal index fell by 0.09%, while the coking coal index dropped by 0.85% [25][28]. - The report highlights that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise as the summer peak approaches, with power plants gradually increasing their inventory needs [6][25]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of thermal coal is expected to stabilize and potentially rebound due to seasonal demand increases and cost support from production and imports [6][25]. - The average daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was reported at 4.517 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 10.4% week-on-week [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests marginal allocation to leading companies with stable profits, including China Coal Energy, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [8]. - It also identifies companies with growth potential and those with elastic growth characteristics, such as Electric Power Investment Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a gradual emergence of cost support. The industry is awaiting favorable policy changes to restore confidence [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The coal mining market is experiencing a narrow adjustment with slight supply tightening in major production areas. Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs [13] - Port inventories are continuously decreasing, but there is still a lack of upward momentum in prices due to limited demand from downstream buyers [14] - The shipping market has seen a slight increase in the number of vessels at northern ports, indicating some recovery in logistics [27] Key Companies - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Xinji Energy (601918.SH), all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [9] - China Shenhua is highlighted as a central enterprise with strong performance, while companies like Qinfa and New Hope Energy are noted for their potential turnaround [10] Price Movements - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the port is reported at 620 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. However, the market is characterized by a lack of strong demand from power plants, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude [37] - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in various grades, indicating a bearish market sentiment [40][53] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the coal industry will maintain its critical role in China's energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with a potential increase in industry concentration [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a cost support level that could lead to a rebound if favorable policies are introduced [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The CITIC Coal Index is at 3,258.46 points, down 0.54%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.54 percentage points, ranking 23rd among CITIC sector performance [2][76] - The coal market is currently buyer-driven, with procurement strategies and intensity determining coal price movements. The upcoming peak summer demand and potential price stabilization policies are critical factors to monitor [10][37] Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The market is stable with slight adjustments. Production in major coal-producing areas is tightening slightly, while downstream demand remains primarily for essential needs. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range due to limited demand from power plants [11][13][14] - **Coking Coal**: The market continues to decline, with prices under pressure from weak demand and high inventory levels. The report emphasizes the need to monitor production cuts from coking coal enterprises as prices approach marginal costs [10][40] - **Coke**: Profit margins are shrinking, and procurement remains focused on essential needs. The overall production of coke is still increasing, but market sentiment is negative due to declining steel prices [58][75] Investment Strategy - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, highlighting their potential for recovery. It also suggests monitoring companies like Qinfa and Xinji Energy for their performance amidst current challenges [10][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline in 2025 due to weak demand from major buyers like China and India. The production target set by the government of 735 million tons may still be achievable, but reaching the historical high of 835 million tons in 2024 is nearly impossible. In Q1 2025, Indonesia's coal production was only 172 million tons, with exports down 3.88% year-on-year to 126 million tons, resulting in a revenue drop of 16.86% to $7.799 billion [2][3] - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021. The market is now aware of the price decline, and it is believed that the bottom of the price cycle is near. Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence and focus on the fundamental attributes of the industry [2] - Domestic coal companies are facing increasing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - Indonesia's coal production is projected to be difficult to reach 800 million tons in 2025 due to weak demand from major buyers [2] - In Q1 2025, coal production was 172 million tons, with exports down 3.88% year-on-year [2] - The domestic coal supply has significantly decreased, with a 25% drop in DMO coal supply compared to the previous year [2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and China Qinfa, among others. The report emphasizes the importance of performance in stock selection [3][7] Price Trends - Coal prices at Newcastle port (6000K) are stable at $218.9 per ton, while South African Richards Bay coal futures are at $88.40 per ton, and European ARA port coal prices are at $91.00 per ton [2][34]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is expected to stabilize due to improvements in supply-demand fundamentals, leading to a focus on coal allocation [6] - The report highlights a decrease in domestic coal production and imports, which is anticipated to support coal prices [3][4] - The upcoming summer peak demand is expected to drive electricity demand, while the demand from chemical, construction, and steel sectors remains resilient [4] Supply Side Summary - Domestic coal production decreased significantly in April 2025, with a total output of 39 million tons, down 11.6% from March [3][8] - Notable declines were observed in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, with production dropping by 23.8% and 20.6% respectively [10] - Import coal volumes continued to decline due to price discrepancies, with April imports down 16.4% year-on-year [3][12] Demand Side Summary - Anticipated high temperatures during the summer are expected to increase electricity demand, alleviating the negative growth trend in thermal power generation [4] - Non-electric demand remains strong, with high operating rates in coal chemical industries and resilient cement demand despite seasonal fluctuations [4][30] Inventory Summary - Port inventories in the Bohai Rim have been decreasing since mid-May, with coal stocks dropping to 31.4 million tons by May 27, 2025 [5][33] - The number of anchored vessels at ports has increased, indicating a recovery in market demand [5][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coal sector investments due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, with specific recommendations for various coal companies [6][34] - Notable companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal for stable investments, while companies like Yancoal and Jinneng Holding are highlighted for their potential upside [6][34]

Core Viewpoint - The annual shareholder meeting of Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. outlines the company's operational achievements in 2024, financial performance, and strategic plans for 2025, emphasizing safety, efficiency, and compliance with national energy policies [1][2][3]. Meeting Agenda - The meeting will be held on June 10, 2025, at 9:30 AM, with both on-site and online voting options available [4]. - The agenda includes the announcement of the meeting's commencement, qualification review of attendees, proposal discussions, and voting procedures [4]. 2024 Work Summary - Coal business revenue reached 14.7 billion yuan, with a production volume of 34.67 million tons and a net profit of 3.91 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company focused on improving production efficiency through advanced planning and risk management [5][6]. - Safety measures were enhanced, including strict adherence to safety protocols and regular inspections [7]. Financial Performance - Total assets decreased by 0.32% to approximately 37.55 billion yuan, while net receivables dropped by 72.07% [26]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.81 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous year [27]. - The asset-liability ratio improved to 28.89%, down by 6.42 percentage points from the previous year [26]. 2025 Work Plan - The company aims for a coal production target of 34.5 million tons and a sales target of 30 million tons, with projected revenue of 12 billion yuan [13]. - Plans include optimizing production systems, enhancing safety measures, and improving sales efficiency [13][14][15]. - The company will focus on capital operations and governance improvements to support sustainable growth [16]. Challenges and Opportunities - The coal industry faces pressures for green transformation and intelligent development, necessitating advancements in clean coal technology [10][11]. - The energy structure is shifting, with renewable energy consumption expected to exceed 1.1 billion tons, impacting traditional coal demand [11][12]. Governance and Compliance - The supervisory board conducted four meetings in 2024, ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [19][21]. - The company maintains a robust internal control system, with no significant violations reported during the year [23][25]. Profit Distribution - The proposed profit distribution plan includes a cash dividend of 7.55 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 1.26 billion yuan, which represents 45% of the net profit [27]. Audit and Financial Oversight - The company has engaged Lixin Certified Public Accountants for the 2025 financial audit, ensuring transparency and compliance with financial regulations [28].

晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司二〇二四年年度股东会会议资料 晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司 二○二四年年度股东会会议资料 二○二五年六月 晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司二〇二四年年度股东会会议资料 | | | | 一、会议须知 | | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、会议议程 | | 3 | | 三、会议议案 | | | | 1、2024 | 年度董事会工作报告 5 | | | 2、2024 | 年度监事会工作报告 16 | | | 3、公司 2024 | 年度财务决算报告 | 21 | | 4、公司 2024 | 年度利润分配方案 | 24 | | 5、关于公司续聘 | 2025 年度会计师事务所的议案 | 25 | | 6、公司独立董事 | 2024 年度述职报告 | 30 | | 7、关于公司 | 2024 年年度报告及摘要的议案 | 31 | | | 8、关于控股子公司塔山煤矿白洞井运营维护承包的议案 | 32 | 晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司二〇二四年年度股东会会议资料 会 议 须 知 为维护广大投资者的合法权益，确保股东会的正常秩序和议事效率， 根据《公司法》《上市公司股东会规则 ...