证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 04 年 月 日 电力设备 -10% 6% 22% 38% 54% 70% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-08 2025-12 电力设备 沪深300 硅片电池价格持续走高，两部委发布 2026 年消费品以旧换新通知 光伏：硅片电池价格持续走高，组件涨价预期增强。据 InfoLink Consulting，延续 上周偏强的价格走势，硅片厂于上周四陆续上调报价，整体市场仍维持挺价基调。 从各尺寸表现来看，183N 硅片新一轮报价普遍上调至每片 1.40 元人民币，210RN 主流报价同步调整至每片 1.50 元人民币，210N 上周四起报价上移至每片 1.70 元 人民币，相较上周三以前出现明显抬升，且已有零星成交陆续释出。继上周各尺寸 报价持续上涨，本周一线电池厂家基本能达到每瓦 0.38 元以上价格，报价每瓦 0.39-0.40 元以上则有少量成交。近期头部组件企业普遍响应行业自律行为，陆续 上调组件报价。在涨价讯号逐步明确的背景下，分布式分销渠道率先出现成交上 行。组件端开始反映银价成本的抬升上调报价，在上周调涨 TOPCon ...

累计转股情况：截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，累计 4,725,000 元"隆 22 转 债"已转换为隆基绿能科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票，累计转股 数为 90,697 股，占本次可转换公司债券（以下简称"可转债"或"隆 22 转债"） 转股前公司已发行股份总额的 0.001%。 未转股可转债情况：截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，尚未转股的可转债金额为 6,994,696,000 元，占可转债发行总量的 99.92%。 隆基绿能科技股份有限公司 关于可转债转股结果暨股份变动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 股票代码:601012 | 股票简称:隆基绿能 | | | 公告编号:临 | 2026-001 号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:113053 | 债券简称:隆 | 22 | 转债 | | | | 债券代码:244101 | 债券简称:GK | 隆基 | 01 | | | | 债券代码:244386 | 债券简 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of domestic large models like DeepSeek has prompted a global reassessment of China's AI capabilities and the value of its technological assets, making AI and digitalization essential for future survival and competitiveness in business [1] Group 1: AI Integration in Manufacturing - Longi Green Energy integrates AI throughout its smart manufacturing processes, establishing benchmarks for efficiency and quality [1] - The company utilizes AI for process optimization, quality prediction, and accelerated R&D, creating a replicable smart manufacturing model [8] - AI-driven visual inspection systems have significantly increased productivity and reduced the cycle time for new processes [9] Group 2: AI-Driven Product Innovation - BOE is transitioning from a display leader to an IoT innovation enterprise, with AI as the core driver of its business layout [5] - The company has introduced the first "AI factory" concept in the industry, emphasizing AI-native production across all elements [6] - AI enhances product development by providing new methods and tools for material research, simulation design, and process optimization [6] Group 3: Quantum Technology for Security - Quantum technology is crucial for establishing a secure foundation for digital transformation, addressing the challenges of data security in the age of AI and big data [10] - GuoShun Quantum's quantum communication services have evolved from national security needs to empowering various industries, with applications in critical infrastructure [10] - The company is actively involved in building a nationwide quantum communication network, enhancing security for sectors like government, finance, and energy [11]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing intense competition and widespread losses, but it presents an opportunity for transformation and innovation, as emphasized by the chairman of LONGi Green Energy, Zhong Baoshan [1][3][10]. Industry Challenges - The past 20 years have seen rapid technological iterations and expanding demand in the photovoltaic sector, leading to significant capacity expansion and an influx of new players, resulting in severe supply-demand imbalances [3]. - The industry is experiencing unprecedented competition, with many companies facing losses, which Zhong likens to a chaotic rush rather than a smooth transition towards green transformation and carbon neutrality [3]. Strategic Directions - Zhong advocates for breaking away from path dependence and finding new value coordinates, suggesting that instead of competing on old paths, the industry should focus on creating new ones [3]. - The value of photovoltaic products should not only be measured by price but also by reliability, efficiency, and adaptability to different scenarios, which LONGi has been focusing on through deep industry insights and customer needs [4]. Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is deemed the core engine for breaking through current challenges, requiring both foundational and scenario innovations to progress [6]. - LONGi has invested over 10 billion yuan in research and development for high-efficiency BC technology, achieving significant breakthroughs and establishing a strong technological barrier with 480 related patents as of mid-2025 [6]. - The company has introduced the LONGi Hi ROOF S integrated photovoltaic solution to address long-standing issues in traditional rooftop installations, enhancing safety and expanding the application market [6]. Commitment to Quality - Despite the industry's current pressures, LONGi remains committed to quality and reliability, aiming to win customer trust and market competition through superior products and services [7]. - Zhong expresses confidence in the future of LONGi and the Chinese photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need for proactive efforts to create opportunities [7]. Future Outlook - The global green energy transition is still in its early stages, and the demand for photovoltaic solutions is expected to grow, indicating a long-term potential for the industry [10]. - Zhong calls for innovation and determination to navigate the challenges ahead, encouraging the industry to embrace the journey of transformation [10].

Core Viewpoint - The silver price has surged significantly, with a nearly 35% increase in one month and close to a doubling over six months, driven by speculative funds and structural supply tightness, impacting both mining companies and manufacturing sectors reliant on silver as a raw material [1][2][12]. Group 1: Silver Price Dynamics - As of December 31, the main silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 17,074 yuan per kilogram, down 4.27% for the day, but the overall upward trend remains intact [1]. - The price of silver has increased by 127% compared to the end of 2024 [1]. - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in the photovoltaic (PV) sector, is a significant driver, with silver usage in PV applications reaching 6,147 tons in 2024, accounting for 29% of industrial silver demand [2][12]. Group 2: Impact on the Photovoltaic Industry - The share of silver in the cost of photovoltaic components has risen sharply from less than 5% before 2024 to around 20% currently due to soaring silver prices [1][11]. - The production of photovoltaic cells and modules has seen growth, with cell production reaching approximately 560 GW and module production at about 514 GW in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 9.8% and 13.5%, respectively [2][12]. Group 3: Cost Transmission Strategies - Many midstream companies are attempting to pass on the increased silver costs to downstream customers through price hikes, with some companies already implementing slight increases in component prices [5][16]. - For example, LONGi Green Energy has raised its component prices by 0.03 to 0.06 yuan per watt [16]. - However, the ability to pass on costs is challenged by a supply-demand imbalance in the downstream market, limiting the extent of price increases [17]. Group 4: Long-term Solutions and Technological Innovations - The industry consensus is shifting towards reducing silver usage through technological innovations, with "silver reduction" and "silver-free" technologies becoming key strategies for overcoming cost pressures [11][18]. - Companies like Dike Co. are developing low-silver and silver-coated copper pastes, which are expected to reduce costs while maintaining performance [18][19]. - The transition to alternative materials, such as copper, faces challenges due to copper's inferior conductivity and susceptibility to oxidation compared to silver [20].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the energy storage sector, driven by the implementation of capacity pricing mechanisms in China and increasing demand for energy storage solutions globally, particularly in the context of AI advancements [7][14][27] - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is expected to see a reversal in profitability due to ongoing technological innovations and regulatory measures aimed at curbing excessive competition [7][14][27] Energy Storage - Large-scale energy storage in China is transitioning towards market-driven models, with the introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms expected to enhance the economic viability of storage projects. The expected installed capacity for energy storage in China is projected to reach 154 GWh in 2025, 254 GWh in 2026, and 337 GWh in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 40.2%, 65.2%, and 32.5% respectively [7][14][27] - The report highlights that the U.S. is experiencing rapid growth in energy storage demand, particularly driven by data center construction, with an anticipated addition of 13 GW of data centers leading to a storage demand of 10.7 to 25 GWh [7][14][27] - In Europe, the demand for flexible resources is increasing, and the development of large-scale storage is accelerating due to improved business models and subsidies. The report forecasts that global energy storage installations will reach approximately 279 GWh in 2025, 423 GWh in 2026, and 563 GWh in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 52%, and 33% respectively [7][14][27] Photovoltaic Industry - The report notes that the PV industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with regulatory bodies emphasizing the need to address price violations and excessive competition within the sector. This is expected to lead to improved profitability in the downstream component segment of the PV industry by 2026 [7][14][27] - Global PV installations are projected to reach nearly 580 GW in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6%, driven by reasonable capacity limits in various regions [7][14][27] - Technological innovations aimed at reducing costs and increasing efficiency are expected to facilitate a reversal in profitability for the PV sector, with advancements in battery technology playing a crucial role [7][14][27] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the PV sector that are driving N-type technology innovations, such as JinkoSolar, Tongwei Co., Longi Green Energy, and JA Solar. It also suggests focusing on companies benefiting from new technological iterations in auxiliary materials [7][14][27] - In the energy storage sector, it highlights companies with technological leadership and competitive advantages, such as Sungrow Power Supply, Hubei Huadian, Canadian Solar, and Shenghong Technology, while also suggesting attention to firms like Shuneng Electric and Kehua Data [7][14][27]

Group 1 - The silicon energy concept declined by 1.03%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Jitai Co., Yijing Optoelectronics, and Dongyue Silicon Materials experiencing significant drops [1] - Among the silicon energy sector, 42 stocks saw net outflows of main funds, with TBEA leading at a net outflow of 3.32 billion yuan, followed by Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. with net outflows of 3.07 billion yuan and 1.74 billion yuan respectively [2][3] - The top gainers in the silicon energy sector included Guosheng Technology, Shuangliang Energy, and Dongfang Risheng, with increases of 7.84%, 1.55%, and 1.24% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The overall market saw a net outflow of 1.755 billion yuan from the silicon energy concept, indicating a significant withdrawal of capital from this sector [2] - The trading volume for stocks in the silicon energy sector varied, with some stocks like Jitai Co. and Yijing Optoelectronics showing high turnover rates of 7.72% and 7.83% respectively, despite their price declines [3][4] - The main funds' inflow was observed in stocks such as Dongfang Risheng, Shuangliang Energy, and Tuojin New Energy, with net inflows of 678.32 million yuan, 304.35 million yuan, and 219.18 million yuan respectively [4]

Group 1 - The company, Longi Green Energy (601012.SH), stated on its interactive platform that it does not engage in concentrated solar power (CSP) business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) expects to exceed 50GW of BC battery production capacity by the end of 2025 [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company is actively monitoring changes in the capital market and has implemented share buybacks and increases in holdings to boost investor confidence and maintain market value stability [1] - To date, the company has repurchased approximately 300 million yuan worth of its own shares through centralized bidding transactions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) has made significant advancements in silicon-based tandem solar cell research, achieving high efficiency levels, but faces challenges in production costs and product stability that hinder mass production [1] Group 1: Research Achievements - In November 2025, a study published in Nature, in collaboration with Suzhou University and Xi'an Jiaotong University, reported that the efficiency of small-area ultra-thin silicon-perovskite tandem solar cells reached 33.4%, certified by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) [1] - The efficiency of commercially sized flexible tandem solar cells was certified at 29.8% by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Despite progress in perovskite tandem solar cells, production costs and product stability remain significant factors affecting the economic viability of mass production [1] - The company currently has no plans for mass production of perovskite tandem solar cells but will continue to focus on the technology and its industrialization research [1]