Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3555.41 points, with a decline of 0.50% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares is 128.87 billion yuan [1] Technical Analysis - A total of 64 A-shares have seen their 5-day moving average cross below the 10-day moving average [1] - Notable stocks with significant distance between their 5-day and 10-day moving averages include: - Tongzhou Electronics: -1.29% - Marubi Biological: -0.95% - GeKao Micro: -0.69% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Key stock performances include: - Tongzhou Electronics (002052): Today's change -1.15%, 5-day MA at 10.70 yuan, 10-day MA at 10.84 yuan, with a distance of -1.29% [1] - Marubi Biological (603983): Today's change -2.84%, 5-day MA at 39.78 yuan, 10-day MA at 40.16 yuan, with a distance of -0.95% [1] - GeKao Micro (688728): Today's change 0.33%, 5-day MA at 15.71 yuan, 10-day MA at 15.82 yuan, with a distance of -0.69% [1] - Other notable stocks include: - Huatai Securities (601059): Today's change -0.86%, 5-day MA at 16.73 yuan, 10-day MA at 16.84 yuan, with a distance of -0.66% [1] - Jiabao (600622): Today's change -1.01%, 5-day MA at 3.08 yuan, 10-day MA at 3.10 yuan, with a distance of -0.64% [1] Additional Stock Movements - Other stocks with notable movements include: - Laka Laka (300773): Today's change -4.02%, 5-day MA at 27.62 yuan, 10-day MA at 27.73 yuan, with a distance of -0.39% [2] - Yongtai Technology (002326): Today's change 4.09%, 5-day MA at 13.25 yuan, 10-day MA at 13.29 yuan, with a distance of -0.32% [2] - Qijing (603677): Today's change -0.46%, 5-day MA at 19.91 yuan, 10-day MA at 19.96 yuan, with a distance of -0.25% [2]

[Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 [➢Table_Summary] 7 月政治局会议反映了外部环境急剧恶化已不再是中央的基准预期，上半年 GDP 增速的改善也使得政策的重点从稳增长向促改革、防风险转移，我们认 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is expected to benefit from the recent outbreak of Chikungunya fever, with a gradual recovery in vaccine sector performance and potential valuation adjustments due to innovation attributes [1] - The pharmacy sector is exploring new business models in the context of medical insurance reforms, with non-pharmaceutical products emerging as a potential breakthrough direction [1] - The diagnostics sector is anticipated to improve due to the digestion of pandemic-related baselines and new demand arising from the current health landscape [1] Group 2 - The medium to long-term focus is on "innovation + AI healthcare + recovery," with innovative drugs and medical devices receiving clear support from the National Healthcare Security Administration, emphasizing differentiated innovation [1] - AI healthcare is gaining attention due to the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, with focus areas including diagnostic paradigms and drug development [1] - Recovery lines include a rebound in medical equipment procurement, as well as a restoration of demand in CXO and upstream life sciences [1] Group 3 - The Guotai Innovation Drug ETF (517110) tracks the SHS Innovation Drug Index (931409), which selects listed companies involved in new drug research, production, and sales from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong markets to reflect the overall performance of innovative pharmaceutical companies [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation Drug Industry ETF Initiation Link C (014118) and Link A (014117) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities indicates that WuXi AppTec's TEDIS business is experiencing high growth, leading to an upward revision of the company's annual performance guidance [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 8.56 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 101.9% [1] - In Q2 2025, the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.9% [1] Business Growth Drivers - The strong growth in the company's chemical business is primarily driven by the high demand in the TEDIS segment [1] - The demand for peptides and oligonucleotides remains robust, with a rich order backlog [1] - The company plans to increase its peptide solid-phase synthesis capacity to over 100,000 liters by the end of 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the next 1-2 years [1] Global Market Position - Approximately 85% of the company's revenue comes from overseas clients, establishing it as a fully globalized and competitive leader in the CRDMO sector [1] - Despite geopolitical concerns, the business growth from U.S. clients remains strong in H1 2025, alleviating market worries [1] - The global trend is expected to continue, with the company maintaining a solid position in the global supply chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities highlights that Dongpeng Beverage is continuously deepening its market presence, with the performance of its product "Bushu La" being particularly strong. The company achieved a main business revenue of 5.889 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.10% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Dongpeng Special Drink revenue increased by 18.8% year-on-year to 4.460 billion yuan [1] - Revenue from the electrolyte drink "Bushu La" surged by 190.05% year-on-year to 0.923 billion yuan [1] - Other beverage revenues, excluding "Bushu La," grew by 60.06% year-on-year to 0.503 billion yuan, primarily driven by the strong performance of "Guo Zhi Cha" [1] Regional Performance - In Q2, revenue in Guangdong province increased by 19.08% year-on-year to 1.421 billion yuan [1] - Revenue in Guangxi province rose by 31.17% year-on-year to 0.362 billion yuan [1] - The company is focusing on deepening its presence in Guangdong while optimizing its distribution system and enhancing its business team outside the province [1] Future Outlook - Cinda Securities believes that Dongpeng's "Bushu La" and "Guo Zhi Cha," supported by pricing and channel advantages, are expected to continue contributing to revenue growth in 2025 [1] - The company is anticipated to maintain good growth in the national market for energy drinks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities highlights that WuXi AppTec's TEDIS business is driving significant growth, leading the company to raise its full-year performance guidance [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 8.56 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 101.9% [1] - In Q2 2025, the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.9% [1] Business Growth Drivers - The strong growth in the company's chemical business is primarily driven by the high demand in the TEDIS segment [1] - The demand for peptides and oligonucleotides remains robust, with a rich order backlog [1] - The company plans to increase its peptide solid-phase synthesis capacity to over 100,000 liters by the end of 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the TEDIS business in the next 1-2 years [1] Global Market Position - Approximately 85% of the company's revenue comes from overseas clients, establishing it as a fully globalized and competitive leader in the CRDMO sector [1] - Despite geopolitical concerns, the business growth from U.S. clients remains strong in H1 2025, alleviating market worries and reinforcing the company's stable position in the global supply chain [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The low - inflation environment is the foundation of the bond bull market. The recent rise in commodity prices and equity market fluctuations have made investors worry about the change in the bond market trend. However, the long - term trend of the bond market may not have changed, and adjustments bring opportunities [2]. - The "anti - involution" policy is a structural reform. Although it aims to address over - capacity and boost inflation in the long run, the current implementation may have short - term negative impacts on the economy and may not be conducive to the sustainable recovery of inflation [2]. - The recent fluctuations in the bond market are mainly due to the "anti - involution" policy, the rise in commodity prices, and short - term disturbances in the capital market such as the freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The central bank is likely to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Demand - Driven Investment Policies Cannot Change the Low - Inflation State - In Q2 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.2%, and the cumulative growth rate in the first half of the year reached 5.3%. However, due to the decline in inflation, the nominal GDP growth rate in Q2 dropped to 3.9%, a new low since the pandemic. This may be the reason for the "anti - involution" policy [6]. - Since 2018, China's core CPI has been in a downward trend, especially after 2021, remaining below 1%, which may be affected by the decline of the real estate market. Overseas experience shows that low - inflation environments in major developed economies are usually triggered by demand - side shocks [11]. - China's real estate and urban investment platforms absorbed a large amount of financial resources before 2021. After the real estate market declined, these sectors faced debt risks. The policies to address these risks have limited short - term impact on demand [16]. - In the demand side, measures such as development - oriented policy financial instruments in 2022 and additional treasury bond issuance in 2023 aimed at major project construction. However, they could not fully offset the impact of the decline in urban investment financing on infrastructure investment. Manufacturing investment has become a new driver of stable growth, but it has also led to over - capacity and low inflation [21]. 3.2. The Intention and Alienation of the "Anti - Involution" Policy - The low - inflation state in China is closely related to over - capacity in the manufacturing industry, which is the background for the "anti - involution" policy. The capital expenditure growth rate of manufacturing listed companies has been declining, and the over - capacity may be due to local government intervention [25]. - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission on July 1, 2025, can be regarded as the top - level plan for "anti - involution", aiming to address over - capacity by constraining local government behavior. However, the current implementation focuses on short - term inflation through measures like production restrictions and price alliances, which may not lead to sustainable inflation recovery [27]. - Different from the 2015 supply - side reform, the current over - capacity is mainly concentrated in the mid - and downstream sectors, and it is more difficult to clear through administrative orders. Without demand - side support, the price increase caused by production restrictions may be short - term [29]. 3.3. Inflation Priority Increase Does Not Justify Central Bank Tightening; Capital Market Fluctuations Are Affected by Short - Term Factors - The recent tightening of the capital market and the central bank's OMO net withdrawal have made investors worry about the change in monetary policy. However, considering the policy goal of boosting inflation, the central bank has no reason to tighten in the short term [33]. - The freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange has affected the capital market. For example, the 6288 billion yuan frozen for the online issuance of Dingjia Precision on July 22 has caused fluctuations in the capital market. After the funds were unfrozen on July 24, large - scale transfers may have reduced banks' willingness to lend, but the central bank's net withdrawal has increased market concerns [37]. - The central bank is likely to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment, and the short - term fluctuations in DR001 are expected to return to the 1.3% - 1.4% range [42]. 3.4. Short - Term Focus on Overshoot Rebound; Medium - Term Wait for Further Clarity of Macroeconomic Data - The long - term trend of the bond market may not have changed, and the short - term bond market may rebound. However, the bond market structure is still fragile after the rebound, and there is a possibility of a second shock [45]. - Currently, trading can be carried out with a volatile mindset. Short - term participation in market rebounds is possible, but profit - taking can be considered when the 10 - year bond yield falls below 1.7%. The greater opportunity in the bond market may come from the falsification of the inflation - boosting expectation of the "anti - involution" policy, which may require a decline in Q3 economic data or the disappointment of incremental policies after the Politburo meeting [46].

Group 1 - The second "Golden Unicorn Best Investment Advisor" selection is underway, focusing on identifying outstanding investment advisors in wealth management [1] - The weekly ranking data from July 14 to July 20 shows that Wang Weilong from Bank of China Securities achieved the highest weekly return of 20.22% in stock simulation trading [1][2] - In the ETF simulation trading group, Sun Baoyan from Xinda Securities topped the list with a weekly return of 10.81% [2][3] Group 2 - In the public fund simulation configuration group, Sun Baoyan also led with a weekly return of 10.91%, followed by He Weidong from Dongxing Securities with 5.88% [3][5] - The social service evaluation highlights top advisors based on their IP homepage and simulated portfolio heat values, with Mei Xingxia from Dongfang Securities leading in IP homepage heat value [11]

Group 1 - The total share of actively managed equity funds decreased to 28,063 billion units in Q2 2025, a decrease of 1,080 billion units compared to Q1 2025 [2][7] - The median net redemption rate for existing actively managed equity funds decreased from 4.03% in Q1 2025 to 3.57% in Q2 2025, a change of 0.46 percentage points [2][11] - The number of high-position public funds increased in Q2 2025, with 48.04% of all sample equity funds holding over 90% in stocks, up 5.38 percentage points from Q1 2025 [2][21] Group 2 - Actively managed equity funds increased their positions in the financial and technology growth sectors, particularly in AI computing and banking [2][5] - The allocation to the communication sector saw the largest increase, moving into an overweight position and becoming one of the top five sectors [2][5] - The healthcare and military sectors also received significant increases in allocations, aligning with the performance of innovative drugs and military stocks in Q2 2025 [2][5] Group 3 - The allocation to mid-cap stocks (500 billion to 2 trillion) increased by 2.63 percentage points, while the allocation to stocks over 2 trillion decreased significantly [2][53] - The actively managed equity funds focused on increasing their holdings in the ChiNext board while reducing their positions in the main board and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][35] - The concentration of holdings in industries and individual stocks decreased, with the top three industries' share rising to 38.12% in Q2 2025, while the top five and top ten industries' shares decreased [2][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the total bond custody scale increased by 129.68 billion yuan month-on-month, a significant decrease of 86.65 billion yuan compared to May, mainly affected by the large - scale net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs). The net financing scale of treasury bonds also declined significantly, while the custody increments of policy - financial bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds all increased slightly month - on - month [3][6]. - In June, factors such as the Sino - US economic and trade consultations reaching a framework of measures and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran boosted market risk appetite. However, supported by factors such as looser liquidity and the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases, the bond market sentiment warmed up. The short - end interest rates dropped significantly, and the long - end interest rates also declined slightly. The bond - buying demand of trading desks increased significantly. Non - bank institutions significantly increased their bond - buying scale, and insurance institutions turned to increase bond holdings. Banks still had the ability to increase bond holdings despite the record - high net repayment of NCDs, indicating a relief of banks' liability pressure and an increase in market allocation capacity [3][11]. - Affected by the significant increase in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8% in June. Although the increase was higher than the seasonal level, it was still at a relatively low level in the past three years. The significant increase in non - bank leverage ratio shows that the main risk in the market is whether institutional sentiment has turned overheated. However, since its absolute value is not high compared with the same period in previous years, the over - heating of sentiment may not have reached its peak [3][40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined significantly, and the bond custody increment in June shrank substantially - In June, the total bond custody scale increased by 129.68 billion yuan month - on - month, a significant decrease of 86.65 billion yuan compared to May, mainly due to the large - scale net repayment of NCDs and the significant decline in the net financing scale of treasury bonds. The custody increments of policy - financial bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds all increased slightly month - on - month [3][6]. - Specifically, for interest - rate bonds, the custody increment of treasury bonds decreased by 20.85 billion yuan to 69.95 billion yuan; the custody increment of local government bonds increased by 12.91 billion yuan to 65.14 billion yuan; the custody increment of policy - financial bonds increased slightly by 5.12 billion yuan to 33.33 billion yuan. For credit bonds, the custody increment of medium - term notes increased by 17.27 billion yuan to 24.63 billion yuan, and the decline in the custody scale of short - term commercial paper narrowed by 1.49 billion yuan to 2.82 billion yuan. The custody scales of enterprise bonds and PPNs continued to decline. The custody volume of NCDs decreased by 71.99 billion yuan from an increase of 26.94 billion yuan last month, and the custody increment of commercial bank bonds decreased by 5.34 billion yuan to 20.84 billion yuan [6]. 2. In June, the willingness of allocation desks to increase holdings declined from a high level, while trading desks increased holdings of interest - rate bonds and reduced holdings of NCDs - **General Funds**: In June, the bond custody increment of general funds decreased by 20.77 billion yuan to 60.49 billion yuan. They turned to significantly reduce holdings of NCDs, with the reduction scale reaching a new high since December 2022, but increased holdings of treasury bonds and medium - term notes and turned to increase holdings of policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, they increased allocation of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds but reduced allocation of NCDs [14]. - **Securities Companies**: The bond custody volume of securities companies increased by 10.23 billion yuan in June from a decrease of 12.61 billion yuan last month. They turned to increase holdings of various interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes but also increased the reduction of NCDs. Relative to the stock, they also increased allocation of bonds, mainly various interest - rate bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, but strengthened the reduction of NCDs [19]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody volume of insurance companies increased by 4.68 billion yuan in June from a decrease of 120 million yuan last month. They turned to increase holdings of local government bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform but slightly reduced holdings of treasury bonds. Relative to the stock, they increased allocation of local government bonds and significantly weakened the reduction of financial bonds on the Clearstream platform [23]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The bond custody volume of overseas institutions decreased by 11.61 billion yuan in June, with the decline increasing from 9.63 billion yuan last month. They turned to reduce holdings of treasury bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, and the reduction scale of policy - financial bonds increased, but the reduction scale of commercial bank bonds decreased. Relative to the stock, they maintained a high - level reduction of bonds [27]. - **Other Institutions**: The bond custody volume of other institutions (including the central bank) increased by 13.77 billion yuan in June from a decrease of 19.27 billion yuan last month. They turned to increase holdings of treasury bonds and reduced the reduction scale of local government bonds, but turned to reduce holdings of NCDs and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform. The increase in bond custody volume was mainly affected by the change of the central bank's outright repo from a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan in May to a net injection of 20 billion yuan in June [31]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased significantly by 127.48 billion yuan to 40.32 billion yuan in June. The increase in holdings of treasury bonds decreased significantly, which may be affected by the change of the outright repo. They also reduced the increase in holdings of local government bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, turned to reduce holdings of policy - financial bonds and commercial bank bonds, but turned to increase holdings of medium - term notes. Relative to the stock, they reduced allocation of bonds, mainly various interest - rate bonds, commercial bank bonds, and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, but increased allocation of NCDs [33]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody scale of credit unions decreased by 246 million yuan in June from an increase of 544 million yuan last month. They turned to reduce holdings of treasury bonds and NCDs and decreased the increase in holdings of policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced allocation of bonds, mainly various interest - rate bonds and NCDs [38]. 3. The bond market leverage ratio increased significantly in June but was still below the historical neutral level - Affected by the significant increase in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8% in June, with the increase higher than the seasonal level but still at a relatively low level in the past three years. The inter - bank average daily pledged repo trading volume increased to 7.77 trillion yuan, and the monthly average balance increased to 12.02 trillion yuan, reaching a new high this year [40]. - **Commercial Banks**: The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.4 percentage points to 103.6% in June, but was still significantly lower than the central level before April 2024 [40]. - **Non - bank Institutions**: The leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased by 1.8 percentage points to 118.1% in June, with the month - on - month increase being the highest since 2023, but the absolute value was still not high in the past three years. Among them, the leverage ratio of securities companies increased significantly by 9.7 percentage points to 217.1%, reaching a relatively high level in the past three years; the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products increased by 1.5 percentage points to 114.8%, but was still lower than the central level from June 2022 to December 2024 [40]. - **General Funds**: The repurchase balances of various institutions in general funds generally increased. The repurchase balance of money market funds continued to increase significantly, while the increases in the repurchase balances of non - money products of fund companies and insurance companies were relatively small. The repurchase balance of other products reached a historical high, and the repurchase balance of wealth management products also increased but was still near a historical low [40].