沪指6月13日下跌0.75%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有3个，涨幅居前的行业为石油石化、国防军 工、公用事业，涨幅分别为2.05%、1.72%、0.48%。跌幅居前的行业为美容护理、传媒，跌幅分别为 4.12%、2.53%。汽车行业今日下跌1.98%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出476.73亿元，今日有7个行业主力资金净流入，国防军工行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨1.72%，全天净流入资金25.70亿元，其次是石油石化行业，日 涨幅为2.05%，净流入资金为15.12亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有24个，计算机行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金70.43亿元，其 次是汽车行业，净流出资金为54.28亿元，净流出资金较多的还有医药生物、电子、电力设备等行业。 汽车行业今日下跌1.98%，全天主力资金净流出54.28亿元，该行业所属的个股共276只，今日上涨的有 21只，涨停的有3只；下跌的有253只，跌停的有2只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的 个股有65只，其中，净流入资金超3000万元的有6只，净流入资金居首的是长安汽车，今日净流入资金 3.56亿元，紧随其后的是 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major automotive companies in China have committed to reducing supplier payment terms to no more than 60 days, reflecting a national strategy to combat internal competition in the automotive industry [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of the end of 2024, the total accounts payable and notes payable of 12 major listed automotive companies reached 960.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.05%, accounting for 55.39% of their total current liabilities, which is a 3.71 percentage point increase [2]. - The companies with the largest accounts payable are BYD and SAIC, both exceeding 240 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Growth Trends - The fastest-growing companies in terms of accounts payable over the past year (2023-2024) are BAIC Blue Valley (up 136.78%), Seres (up 127.04%), and Geely (up 46.34%) [3]. - Over the past decade (2015-2024), BAIC Blue Valley has seen the most significant growth in accounts payable, increasing by 1866.53 times [3]. Group 3: Payment Turnover Efficiency - In 2024, all 12 listed automotive companies had accounts payable turnover days exceeding 60 days, with GAC Group having the highest efficiency at 74.75 days, while Zotye had the lowest at 361.76 days [3][4]. - BYD and Geely have similar turnover days, both around 125-130 days [3]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis - Tesla's accounts payable turnover days in 2024 were only 60.36 days, highlighting a stark contrast with Chinese automakers [5]. - The success of Tesla is attributed to its focus on "coexistence and win-win" relationships with suppliers and continuous technological innovation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing significant pressure from various stakeholders, including suppliers and regulatory bodies, due to ongoing price wars and extended payment terms, which are impacting the financial health of the entire supply chain [1][5]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - Automotive companies are primarily relying on price negotiations rather than improving supply chain efficiency or technological innovation to reduce costs [1][2]. - The current price war is characterized by companies sacrificing their profits and pressuring suppliers to accept longer payment terms, effectively lowering procurement costs [2][3]. - The accounts payable and notes payable of major automotive companies have generally expanded, with notable increases in companies like Beiqi Blue Valley and Zerorun, which saw over 120% and 90% growth, respectively [2][3]. Group 2: Supplier Impact - Approximately 80% of automotive parts manufacturers have reported an increase in accounts receivable, with some companies experiencing growth rates exceeding 50% [3]. - The average turnover days for accounts payable among domestic automotive companies exceed 180 days, while international counterparts maintain around 60 days, indicating a significant burden on suppliers [3][4]. - Suppliers are often forced to accept unfavorable conditions due to the dominance of high market share companies, leading to cost-cutting measures that may compromise quality [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes - The newly implemented "Regulations on Payment for Small and Medium Enterprises" aims to address the long payment terms and low capital efficiency issues in the automotive supply chain by mandating payments within 60 days [5][6]. - While some companies have committed to reducing payment terms, many have not explicitly stated their intention to avoid increasing supplier financial pressure through non-cash payment methods [5][6]. - The regulations serve as a "mirror" for the financial health of automotive companies, allowing suppliers to make informed decisions based on the payment practices of their partners [6].

Core Viewpoint - An increasing number of automotive companies have committed to a payment term of no more than 60 days for suppliers, responding to regulatory changes aimed at alleviating cash flow pressures in the supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Commitments - As of now, 15 automotive companies, including GAC Group, China FAW, Dongfeng Motor, NIO, Li Auto, Xiaomi Auto, Geely, BYD, Chery, Changan, Seres, BAIC, SAIC, Leap Motor, and Jianghuai Automobile, have pledged to keep payment terms within 60 days [1]. - SAIC and BAIC have not only committed to the 60-day payment term but also stated they will not use commercial acceptance bills, which can increase financial pressure on suppliers [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Context - The 60-day payment term aligns with the revised "Regulations on the Payment of Funds to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" issued by the State Council, which took effect on June 1, requiring large enterprises to pay small and medium-sized enterprises within 60 days of delivery [1][2]. - The regulations also prohibit forcing small and medium-sized enterprises to accept non-cash payment methods, such as commercial bills, to prevent the extension of payment cycles [1]. Group 3: Current Payment Practices - Historically, payment terms for suppliers in the joint venture era did not exceed three months, but current practices have extended average payment terms to over 170 days, with some exceeding 240 days [3]. - Some Tier 1 suppliers report payment terms extending beyond eight months, and upstream suppliers often face even longer terms, exacerbating financial strain on smaller suppliers [3]. Group 4: Challenges with Commercial Bills - Commercial bills, which can have a redemption period of 3-6 months, force suppliers to choose between longer payment terms and accepting discounted payments [4][5]. - The discount rates for commercial bills can be significantly high, with some reaching up to 11% for six-month periods, further impacting suppliers' cash flow [4]. Group 5: Ambiguities in Payment Terms - Despite commitments to a 60-day payment term, there are ambiguities regarding when this term begins, as it can vary based on delivery, acceptance, and invoicing processes [6][7]. - Suppliers have expressed skepticism about the sincerity of these commitments, viewing them as potentially empty promises, given the historical context of payment practices in the industry [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of private car manufacturers, emphasizing their strong profitability and the acceleration of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) by 2025. Key players like BYD and Geely are expected to lead in this area [3][13] - The report notes that new energy vehicle (NEV) sales are projected to remain robust, particularly in the second half of 2025, driven by favorable policies and tax exemptions [12][10] - State-owned enterprises are facing profitability challenges but are actively collaborating with Huawei to transform their business models towards electrification and smart technologies [4][16] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Automotive Industry - The automotive sales in China surpassed 30 million units in 2023, with exports being a significant growth driver. Domestic sales have not yet returned to 2017 levels [6][7] - Policies such as the vehicle replacement program are expected to stimulate demand, potentially adding 3.5 million units in 2025 [11][10] 2. Major Private Car Manufacturers - Private manufacturers are showing strong operational resilience, with profitability driven by high-end strategies, exports, and NEV scale effects. BYD's net profit for 2024 is projected at 37 billion yuan, a 29.9% increase year-on-year [14][15] - The report indicates that private manufacturers are leading the penetration of ADAS in the market, with significant advancements expected by 2025 [24][25] 3. Major New Forces in Automotive - New entrants are under pressure to achieve self-sustainability, with a focus on new product launches to validate growth potential. Companies like Li Auto and Xpeng are expected to introduce new models in 2025 [32][40] - The report notes that while losses are narrowing for these companies, the urgency to establish self-funding capabilities is increasing due to changes in the financing environment [37][39] 4. Major State-Owned Enterprises - State-owned enterprises are experiencing weaker profitability due to various factors, including declining investment returns from joint ventures and challenges in achieving scale in NEVs [16][4] - Collaborations with Huawei are being intensified to facilitate the transition towards smart and electric vehicles [4][16] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in private manufacturers like Seres, BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Geely due to their strong profitability and market positioning. It also suggests monitoring new entrants like Li Auto, Xpeng, and Xiaomi for their growth potential [3][4]

Group 1: Private Car Manufacturers - The profitability of private car manufacturers is strong, with significant advancements in high-end strategies, increased export ratios, and scale effects in the new energy vehicle sector [1] - Key players like Seres, BYD, and Geely are expected to lead the acceleration of advanced driver assistance systems by 2025, enhancing their market position [1] - The overseas market is contributing considerable profits, with BYD maintaining high per-vehicle profitability due to its scale and supply chain advantages [1] Group 2: New Force Car Manufacturers - New force car manufacturers are facing increased urgency to achieve self-sustainability, with companies like Li Auto showing stable profitability and improvements in gross margins for Leap Motor and Xpeng [2] - The financing environment and valuation levels for new force manufacturers have changed significantly since their initial public offerings, necessitating quicker self-financing [2] - Product launches in 2025 will be crucial for these companies to expand their growth potential, with Li Auto focusing on pure electric models and Xpeng diversifying its product matrix [2] Group 3: State-Owned Car Manufacturers - State-owned car manufacturers are experiencing weaker profitability due to declining investment returns from joint ventures and challenges in achieving scale effects in the new energy vehicle sector [3] - Many state-owned enterprises are actively deepening strategic cooperation with Huawei to facilitate their transition towards smart and electric vehicle production [3] - The domestic automotive market is undergoing structural adjustments, leading to decreased profitability in the fuel vehicle segment [3]

Group 1: Private Car Manufacturers - Private car manufacturers exhibit strong profit resilience, driven by high-end breakthroughs, increased export ratios, and scale effects in the new energy vehicle sector [1] - Key players like BYD and Geely are expected to lead the push for advanced driver assistance systems by 2025, capitalizing on their scale and industry advantages [1] - The profitability of major private car manufacturers is improving, with Seres benefiting from the popularity of its AITO series and Great Wall Motors leveraging its core brands like Tank and pickup trucks [1] Group 2: New Forces in the Automotive Industry - New forces in the automotive sector are facing increased urgency to achieve self-sustainability, with companies like Li Auto maintaining robust profitability while others like Leap Motor and Xpeng show significant improvements in gross margins [2] - The upcoming product launches in 2025 are crucial for these new entrants to expand their growth potential, with Li Auto focusing on pure electric models and Xpeng enhancing its product matrix with range-extended models [2] - The financing environment and valuation levels for new forces have changed significantly since their initial public offerings, necessitating a quicker path to self-sufficiency [2] Group 3: State-Owned Car Manufacturers - State-owned car manufacturers are experiencing weaker profitability due to declining investment returns from joint ventures and challenges in achieving scale effects in the new energy vehicle market [3] - Many state-owned enterprises are actively deepening strategic partnerships with Huawei to facilitate their transition towards smart and electric vehicle production [3] - The domestic automotive market's structural adjustments have led to decreased profitability in the traditional fuel vehicle segment, adding to the pressures faced by state-owned manufacturers [3]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Seventeen major automotive companies, including FAW, Dongfeng, GAC, and Seres, have committed to a payment term not exceeding 60 days, which is seen as a significant step for the sustainable development of the automotive industry [1][7] - Key Point 2: The commitment from automotive companies reflects a proactive response to national calls and demonstrates corporate social responsibility, contributing to a collaborative ecosystem between vehicle manufacturers and parts suppliers [1][5] - Key Point 3: The automotive supply chain is crucial for the industry's transformation and upgrading, with increasing competition in the electric vehicle market leading to longer payment cycles and financial difficulties for suppliers [3][5] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology supports vehicle manufacturers in fulfilling their commitments and encourages the establishment of stable partnerships with supply chain companies to enhance resilience and safety in the supply chain [5][7] - Key Point 2: The recent revision of the "Regulations on Guaranteeing Payment to Small and Medium Enterprises" limits large enterprises' payment terms to a maximum of 60 days, which is expected to improve the business environment for SMEs and boost market confidence [7] - Key Point 3: The automotive industry is currently at a critical stage of high-quality development, and there is a call for industry self-discipline and support from all sectors to foster a positive and orderly development environment [5][7]

Market Capitalization Changes - Tesla's market capitalization reached $105.14 billion, with an increase of $1 billion from the previous day, and its stock price is $326.43 [3] - Toyota's market capitalization is $238.97 billion, showing a decrease of $34.67 million, with a stock price of $182.61 [3] - Xiaomi Auto's market capitalization is $177.55 billion, increasing by $10.24 million, with a stock price of $6.88 [3] - BYD's market capitalization is $154.61 billion, decreasing by $26.58 million, with a stock price of $49.52 [3] - Ferrari's market capitalization is $85.96 billion, decreasing by $7.11 million, with a stock price of $482.39 [3] Other Notable Companies - General Motors has a market capitalization of $47.95 billion, increasing by $9.03 million, with a stock price of $49.87 [4] - Ford's market capitalization is $42.39 billion, increasing by $2.4 million, with a stock price of $10.66 [4] - Hyundai's market capitalization is $35.90 billion, increasing by $4.57 million, with a stock price of $22 [4] - Kia's market capitalization is $28.44 billion, increasing by $4.34 million, with a stock price of $71.84 [4] - Nissan's market capitalization is $8.74 billion, decreasing by $0.97 million, with a stock price of $2.50 [5]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [6] Core Views - Multiple automakers have committed to shortening payment terms to within 60 days, which is expected to improve the automotive supply chain ecosystem [1] - The shortening of payment terms is anticipated to alleviate concerns regarding automakers' repayment capabilities and promote healthy industry development [1] - The average cash turnover rates for components, complete vehicles, and dealers in 2024 are projected to be 4.5, 2.2, and 8.9 respectively, with the new payment terms expected to enhance cash flow [1] - The reduction in payment terms aligns with international standards, potentially benefiting Chinese brands in overseas markets [2] - Price competition has paused, leading to a narrowing of discount rates, which is favorable for healthy competition within the industry [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of Shortened Payment Terms - The adjustment to a 60-day payment term is expected to have limited impact on the cash flow of complete vehicle manufacturers, as many currently operate with payment terms exceeding 110 days [2] - The new terms are expected to enhance the cash turnover ability and cash levels of upstream component manufacturers, with an estimated increase in cash funds of approximately 32 billion yuan (+37%) if accounts receivable turnover improves to 6 [3] Section 2: Export Growth of Domestic Passenger Vehicles - Domestic brands are leading in competitiveness within the market, driving foreign brands out [4] - In 2024, market shares for domestic brands in various price segments are projected to be 80%, 48%, and 42% respectively, with year-on-year increases of 7, 14, and 4 percentage points [4] - In May, domestic brand exports reached 375,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [4] - The global market is viewed as a significant growth opportunity for Chinese automakers, with a recommendation to focus on industry leaders with global competitiveness [4]