Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant improvement in market trading volume and new fund issuance at the beginning of 2026, which is favorable for the fundamentals of financial IT and brokerage sectors. Brokerage firms are expected to continue rapid growth in their brokerage business, while investment banking, asset management, and overseas expansion are likely to enhance the return on equity (ROE) of leading brokerage firms. The insurance sector has also seen a strong start in both individual and bank-insurance channels, with a continued trend of deposit migration, suggesting a positive outlook for the insurance sector in the spring market [4][6]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - Daily average trading volume for stock funds reached 3.44 trillion, down 16% week-on-week; however, the average trading volume since the beginning of 2026 is 3.64 trillion, a 105% increase compared to Q1 2025 [4] - New stock and mixed fund issuance in January 2026 totaled 44.3 billion, a 56% year-on-year increase [4] - The "Public Fund Performance Benchmark Guidelines" was officially released on January 23, 2026, establishing stricter standards for benchmark selection and changes, enhancing performance evaluation and compensation management systems [4] Insurance Sector - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a stable research value for ordinary life insurance products at 1.89%, slightly down from 1.90% in the previous quarter, indicating a trend towards stability [6] - The individual insurance channel is under pressure due to various factors, but the strong start in 2026 is expected to improve new policy growth, aided by favorable market conditions [6] - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to enhance net assets and profitability for insurance companies, with a potential valuation recovery towards 1x PEV for leading firms [6] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guangfa Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and China International Capital Corporation H, as well as China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance [7]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: A-Share Technical Scoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to fully explore technical information to depict market conditions, breaking down the abstract concept of "market state" into five dimensions: price, volume, volatility, trend, and crowding. It generates a comprehensive score ranging from -1 to +1 based on equal-weighted voting of signals from 10 selected indicators across these dimensions[9][14] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select 10 effective market observation indicators across the five dimensions[14] 2. Generate long/short timing signals for each indicator individually 3. Aggregate the signals through equal-weighted voting to form a comprehensive score between -1 and +1[9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward and timely way for investors to observe and understand the market[9] 2. Model Name: Style Timing Model (Small-Cap Crowding) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses a crowding-based trend approach to time large-cap and small-cap styles. Crowding is measured by the difference in momentum and trading volume ratios between small-cap and large-cap indices[3][20] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the momentum difference between the Wind Micro-Cap Index and the CSI 300 Index across 10/20/30/40/50/60-day windows 2. Compute the trading volume ratio between the two indices over the same windows 3. Derive crowding scores for small-cap and large-cap styles by averaging the highest and lowest quantiles of the above metrics, respectively 4. Combine the momentum and volume scores to obtain the final crowding score. A score above 90% indicates high small-cap crowding, while below 10% indicates high large-cap crowding[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the dynamics of style crowding and provides actionable insights for timing decisions[20][25] 3. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model (Genetic Programming) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model applies genetic programming to directly extract factors from industry indices' price, volume, and valuation data, without relying on predefined scoring rules. It uses a dual-objective approach to optimize factor monotonicity and top-group performance[28][32][33] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use NSGA-II algorithm to optimize two objectives: |IC| (information coefficient) and NDCG@5 (normalized discounted cumulative gain for top 5 groups) 2. Combine weakly collinear factors using a greedy strategy and variance inflation factor to form industry scores 3. Select the top 5 industries with the highest multi-factor scores for equal-weight allocation, rebalancing weekly[32][34] - **Model Evaluation**: The dual-objective genetic programming approach enhances factor diversity and reduces overfitting risks, making it a robust tool for industry rotation[32][34] 4. Model Name: China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model adopts a macro-factor risk parity framework, emphasizing risk diversification across underlying macro risk sources rather than asset classes. It actively overweights favorable quadrants based on macro momentum[39][42] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Divide macro risks into four quadrants based on growth and inflation expectations: growth above/below expectations and inflation above/below expectations 2. Construct sub-portfolios within each quadrant using equal-weighted assets, focusing on downside risk 3. Adjust quadrant risk budgets monthly based on macro momentum indicators, which combine buy-side momentum from asset prices and sell-side momentum from economic forecast surprises[42] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively integrates macroeconomic insights into portfolio construction, achieving enhanced performance through active allocation adjustments[39][42] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. A-Share Technical Scoring Model - Annualized Return: 20.78% - Annualized Volatility: 17.32% - Maximum Drawdown: -23.74% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.20 - Calmar Ratio: 0.88[15] 2. Style Timing Model (Small-Cap Crowding) - Annualized Return: 28.46% - Maximum Drawdown: -32.05% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.19 - Calmar Ratio: 0.89 - YTD Return: 11.85% - Weekly Return: 5.25%[26] 3. Industry Rotation Model (Genetic Programming) - Annualized Return: 32.92% - Annualized Volatility: 17.43% - Maximum Drawdown: -19.63% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.89 - Calmar Ratio: 1.68 - YTD Return: 6.80% - Weekly Return: 3.37%[31] 4. China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio - Annualized Return: 11.93% - Annualized Volatility: 6.20% - Maximum Drawdown: -6.30% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.92 - Calmar Ratio: 1.89 - YTD Return: 3.59% - Weekly Return: 1.54%[43] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Small-Cap Crowding Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the crowding level of small-cap style based on momentum and trading volume differences between small-cap and large-cap indices[20][25] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate momentum differences and trading volume ratios for multiple time windows 2. Derive crowding scores by averaging the highest and lowest quantiles of these metrics 3. Combine momentum and volume scores to obtain the final crowding score[25] 2. Factor Name: Industry Rotation Factor (Genetic Programming) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Extracts factors from industry indices using genetic programming, optimizing for monotonicity and top-group performance[32][34] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Perform cross-sectional regression of standardized daily trading volume against daily price gaps to obtain residuals (Variable A) 2. Identify the trading day with the highest standardized volume in the past 9 days (Variable B) 3. Conduct time-series regression of Variables A and B over the past 50 days to obtain intercepts (Variable C) 4. Compute the covariance of Variable C and standardized monthly opening prices over the past 45 days[38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Small-Cap Crowding Factor - YTD Return: 11.85% - Weekly Return: 5.25%[26] 2. Industry Rotation Factor (Genetic Programming) - Training Set IC: 0.340 - Factor Weight: 18.7% - YTD Return: 6.80% - Weekly Return: 3.37%[31][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the insurance sector, indicating a strong continuity in market performance despite recent fluctuations [2][12][16]. Core Insights - The financial sector experienced a mixed performance this week, with the non-bank financial index down by 1.45%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.83 percentage points. The insurance sector saw a decline of 4.02%, while the brokerage sector decreased by 0.61% [1][10]. - The insurance sector's performance is driven by two main factors: policy support leading to economic recovery and liquidity easing combined with a strong stock market. The report suggests a shift from liquidity-driven growth to a focus on macro policy support and economic recovery expectations [2][13][16]. - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from new regulations that enhance investment management quality, with a recommendation to focus on larger, undervalued firms and those involved in mergers and acquisitions [3][18]. - The banking sector is facing a slight decline, but there are signs of recovery in profitability for leading banks, with recommendations to focus on banks with high dividend yields and those expected to benefit from market conditions [19][21]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's recent decline is attributed to short-term market sentiment and liquidity changes, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong support from both the liability and asset sides [2][12][16]. - Key recommendations include focusing on companies like China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and China Taiping, with a specific recommendation for New China Life [4][16]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector's performance is slightly better than the overall market, with a focus on the new guidelines from the regulatory body that aim to improve fund management quality [3][17]. - Recommended firms include Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others, particularly those with strong merger and acquisition prospects [4][18]. Banking Sector - The banking sector has shown a decline but is expected to stabilize, with recommendations to focus on banks with high earnings elasticity and strong dividend yields [19][21]. - Specific banks to watch include Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, and others, with a focus on those that have previously been undervalued [4][21].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in insurance holdings, with public fund holdings in the non-bank financial sector rising from 1.49% in Q3 2025 to 2.48% in Q4 2025, driven by market style rebalancing and marginal support from the sector's fundamentals [24][34] - The report notes that despite the ongoing pursuit of high-elasticity technology sectors, the non-bank financial sector is at a historical low valuation, with strong performance in the insurance sector and increased trading volumes in brokerage firms, indicating fundamental resilience [24][34] - The report suggests that the public fund holdings in the securities sector increased slightly from 0.63% in Q3 2025 to 0.71% in Q4 2025, reflecting improved performance trends and the appeal of low valuations [33] Summary by Sections New Public Fund Issuance - In Q4 2025, the number of newly issued funds remained stable at approximately 477, with a year-on-year increase of 81% compared to 264 in Q4 2024, while the issuance volume decreased by 15.19% year-on-year [12][19] - The share of newly issued equity funds decreased from 41% in the previous quarter to 32%, while mixed fund shares increased from 15% to 19% [12] Non-Bank Financial Fund Holdings - Public fund holdings in the non-bank financial sector increased, with the total market capitalization share rising to 2.48% in Q4 2025 [24] - The report attributes this increase to a shift in funds from crowded technology sectors to undervalued defensive sectors, alongside a recovery in northbound capital allocations [24] Major Non-Bank Companies' Holdings - The report indicates that major non-bank companies saw slight increases in public fund holdings, with China Ping An leading at 1.11% and China Pacific Insurance at 0.35% [41] - The report recommends focusing on key companies such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Ping An for potential investment opportunities [24][41]

根据公告，该公司代董事长、总经理江晓阳任董事长；总经理一职由原副总经理朱前接任。同时，该公 司合规总监、督察长、董事会秘书刘博文兼任首席风险官，原首席风险官覃洁因工作变动不再担任上述 职务。 华泰证券资管的前身为1999年成立的华泰证券受托资产管理部，2014年正式注册成立，并于2016年取得 公募牌照。根据华泰证券财报，华泰证券资管在2025年上半年实现营业收入12.10亿元，净利润7.13亿 元，管理规模则达到了6270.32亿元，同比增长23.92%，均位居行业前列。 简历显示，江晓阳是硕士研究生，2001年进入华泰证券，曾在华泰证券广州体育东路证券营业部、北京 月坛南街证券营业部、金融创新部、证券投资部等部门任职。2024年1月进入华泰证券资管，现任董事 长（代）、董事、总经理。 时间倒回2024年1月，华泰证券资管原总经理聂挺进因个人原因离职，时任董事长崔春暂时代任总经理 职务。随后在2024年2月29日，刚从母公司调任而来的江晓阳被聘任为总经理。 近日，伴随母公司的董事会和管理层换届，华泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司（简 称"华泰证券资管"）亦同步完成了核心高管的调整。 一年半后，华泰证券资管于2 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the brokerage sector, suggesting that it is currently in a phase of fundamental and valuation mismatch, with expectations for improvement in the first half of the year [2][6]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector has seen a significant increase in allocation by active equity funds, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 102 basis points, surpassing the three-year average [2]. - The report highlights strong earnings forecasts for 2025, with notable increases in net profits for several brokerages, including a projected 405.3% increase for Guolian Minsheng [2][16]. - The insurance sector is expected to stabilize, with a forecasted recovery in the predetermined interest rate for life insurance products, anticipated to rise to 1.96% in Q1 2026 [2][28]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,702.50 with a decline of 0.62%, while the non-bank index fell by 1.45% [6]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial indices reported changes of -0.61%, -4.02%, and +3.10%, respectively [6]. Non-Banking Sector Insights - The report notes that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced new guidelines for performance benchmarks for publicly offered securities investment funds, aiming to enhance transparency and accountability [8][10]. - Key announcements from individual companies include China Pacific Insurance reporting an 8.1% increase in premium income for 2025, and Guolian Minsheng forecasting a significant profit increase due to business integration [12][16]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - For brokerages, the report recommends focusing on firms with strong competitive positions, such as Guotai Junan and Citic Securities, as well as those with high earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities [2]. - In the insurance sector, the report maintains a positive medium-term outlook, recommending companies like China Life and Ping An Insurance [2]. Key Data Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, the average daily trading volume was reported at 30,388.36 billion [32]. - The margin trading balance stood at 27,249.13 billion [38].

Group 1: Management Changes - Huatai Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. (Huatai Securities AM) has undergone a significant management reshuffle, with Jiang Xiaoyang appointed as chairman and Zhu Qian as the new general manager [1][4] - Liu Bowen, the compliance director and board secretary, has taken on the role of chief risk officer, replacing the former chief risk officer, Qin Jie, due to work changes [1][4] - Jiang Xiaoyang has a long history with Huatai Securities, having joined in 2001 and transitioned to Huatai Securities AM in January 2024 [1][4] Group 2: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, Huatai Securities AM reported revenues of 1.21 billion yuan and a net profit of 713 million yuan, with a management scale reaching 627.03 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.92% [1][4] - The company has evolved from a single business model to a dual-license operation, focusing on both asset management and public fund businesses, with notable achievements in asset securitization [3][6] Group 3: Historical Context - Huatai Securities AM was established in 2014, evolving from the asset management department founded in 1999, and obtained its public fund license in 2016 [1][4] - The former chairman, Cui Chun, who joined at the inception of Huatai Securities AM in 2015, stepped down due to work changes, allowing Jiang Xiaoyang to take over leadership [2][5] Group 4: Industry Position - Huatai Securities AM is one of the few brokerages with a public fund license and has made significant strides in the asset securitization sector, with its ABS issuance exceeding 1 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [3][6]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the short-term changes in broad-based ETF shares are impacting weighted stocks, while long-term regulatory changes are constraining deviations in benchmarks [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 24, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.11%. The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.34% [10]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.80 trillion yuan, reflecting a 19% decrease compared to the previous period [5]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The performance of listed insurance companies is expected to continue high growth, with marginal improvements in long-term interest spreads. The 10-year government bond yield was 1.83%, down 1 basis point from the previous week, indicating a stable economic outlook [11][14]. - The insurance sector is benefiting from regulatory changes that enhance asset-liability management capabilities, which are expected to support high growth in 2026. Key stocks to watch include China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life [14][15]. Securities Sector - The report notes a significant decline in broad-based ETF shares, with the CSI 1000 dropping by 42%, the SSE 50 by 25%, and the CSI 300 by 23%. This decline is expected to have a direct impact on the trading volumes of associated leading stocks [15][19]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced new guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, effective March 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing stability and protecting investor interests [24][28]. Group 3: Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - China Ping An (601318.SH) has a current price of 68.40 CNY, with a target value of 85.17 CNY, indicating a buy rating. The expected EPS for 2025 is 8.91 CNY, with a PE ratio of 7.68x [6]. - New China Life (601336.SH) is rated as a buy with a target value of 94.21 CNY, and an expected EPS of 14.04 CNY for 2025, reflecting a PE ratio of 4.96x [6]. - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) is also rated as a buy, with a target value of 52.44 CNY and an expected EPS of 6.09 CNY for 2025, resulting in a PE ratio of 6.88x [6].

近日 ，伴随母公司的董事会和管理层换届，华泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司（简称"华泰证券资管"） 亦同步完成了核心高管的调整。 根据公告，该公司代董事长、总经理江晓阳任董事长；总经理一职由原副总经理朱前接任。同时，该公司合规 总监、督察长、董事会秘书刘博文兼任首席风险官，原首席风险官覃洁因工作变动不再担任上述职务。 华泰证券资管的前身为1999年成立的华泰证券受托资产管理部，2014年正式注册成立，并于2016年取得公募牌 照。根据华泰证券财报，华泰证券资管在2025年上半年实现营业收入12.10亿元，净利润7.13亿元，管理规模则 达到了6270.32亿元，同比增长23.92%，均位居行业前列。 简历显示，江晓阳是硕士研究生，2001年进入华泰证券，曾在华泰证券广州体育东路证券营业部、北京月坛南 街证券营业部、金融创新部、证券投资部等部门任职。2024年1月进入华泰证券资管，现任董事长（代）、董 事、总经理。 时间倒回2024年1月，华泰证券资管原总经理聂挺进因个人原因离职，时任董事长崔春暂时代任总经理职务。 随后在2024年2月29日，刚从母公司调任而来的江晓阳被聘任为总经理。 一年半后，华泰证券资管于2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant transformation in the securities brokerage industry, highlighting the reduction of traditional brokers and the rise of investment advisors as firms shift from sales-driven models to wealth management-focused strategies [2][5]. Group 1: Decline of Securities Brokers - The number of securities brokers has decreased by over 5,000 in the past year, reflecting a broader trend of industry contraction [2]. - From early 2018 to the end of 2025, the number of brokers in the industry dropped from over 90,000 to 22,400, a reduction of more than 68,000 brokers over eight years [3]. - Major firms like CICC and China Merchants Securities have seen drastic reductions in their broker counts, with CICC achieving a "zero" broker count and China Merchants reducing from over 800 to just 13, a decline of over 90% [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Change - The shift from "transactional trading" to wealth management has led to a reevaluation of talent needs, with a focus on professional skills over sheer numbers [3][4]. - Increased market competition and the decline in commission rates have pressured traditional revenue streams, exacerbated by reforms in public fund fees [4]. - The advancement of financial technology has reduced the demand for traditional broker roles, as online services and automated tools take precedence [4]. Group 3: Rise of Investment Advisors - The number of investment advisors has surged, increasing from over 40,000 in 2018 to 86,000 by the end of 2025, with a notable addition of over 5,000 advisors in the past year [6]. - Leading firms are investing in expanding their advisory teams, with companies like Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities increasing their advisor counts significantly [6]. - Smaller firms are also adopting strategies to enhance their advisory capabilities, focusing on reducing interchangeable roles while boosting the quality and scale of their advisory teams [6]. Group 4: Transition from Brokers to Advisors - Many investment advisors are former brokers transitioning into advisory roles, with firms assessing potential candidates based on their qualifications and client service abilities [7]. - The core competitive advantage in advisory services lies in building a highly skilled team capable of providing tailored solutions and asset management [7]. - The industry faces challenges in bridging the gap between traditional sales roles and the more complex demands of asset management and client relationship building [7]. Group 5: Evolving Skill Requirements - The current market demands investment advisors to possess skills in asset allocation, client relationship management, and the use of digital tools [8]. - Firms are developing training programs to enhance advisor capabilities, focusing on both technical skills and client engagement strategies [8]. - Companies are implementing structured support systems to ensure consistent delivery of strategies and insights across their advisory teams [8].