Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that investing in resource stocks is not only about bullish metal prices but also serves as a hedge against rising inflation. The recent surge in metal prices, including gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, is attributed to a significant drop in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, alongside rising inflation expectations [8][13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical events, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages. The report highlights the increasing domestic supply of bauxite and alumina, which enhances the industry's resource security [14] - The precious metals sector is viewed positively as the long-term debt cycle enters its late stage, with rising physical prices reflecting a loss of trust in fiat currency systems. The report anticipates that precious metal prices will continue to reach historical highs in 2026 [15] - The copper sector faces supply chain vulnerabilities, with recent labor disputes leading to production cuts. The report suggests that the basic fundamentals support the equity side of copper investments, which are expected to rise alongside copper prices [16] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report indicates that the recent collective rise in metal prices is a response to inflationary pressures and a re-evaluation of physical asset values as the dollar debt cycle matures [8][13] - The aluminum sector is highlighted for its strong supply chain capabilities, with domestic production of bauxite and alumina expected to increase, providing a competitive edge [14] - The precious metals market is projected to see continued price increases, driven by a shift in investor sentiment towards physical assets as a safeguard against debt risks [15] Steel Industry - The steel industry is currently experiencing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the year-end off-season, with a slight increase in iron and steel production but a decrease in demand [17][22] - Inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [24] - Steel prices have shown a slight overall increase, with specific products like hot-rolled steel experiencing marginal price rises [36][37] New Energy Metals - The report notes a significant year-on-year increase in lithium carbonate production, with December 2025 figures showing a 69.09% rise [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures for November 2025 reflecting substantial growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen sharply, indicating a robust market for new energy metals [49][50]

Core Viewpoint - Huafeng Aluminum (601702.SH) announced a shareholding change involving a reduction in shares held by Mr. You Xiaohua, which has implications for the company's ownership structure [1] Group 1: Shareholding Changes - Mr. You Xiaohua reduced his holdings by 3.3086 million shares, accounting for 0.3313% of the total shares of the company [1] - Following this reduction, the proportion of shares held by the controlling shareholder and its concerted parties decreased from 72.16% to 71.83%, marking a change that touches the 1% threshold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Huafeng Aluminum indicates a reduction in shareholding by major shareholder You Xiaohua, which does not affect the control or governance of the company [1] Group 1: Shareholding Changes - On January 9, 2026, You Xiaohua reduced his holdings by 3.3086 million shares, representing 0.3313% of the total shares of the company [1] - Following this reduction, the shareholding ratio of the controlling shareholder and its concerted parties decreased from 72.16% to 71.83%, reaching a 1% threshold [1] Group 2: Compliance and Governance - This change is part of a planned reduction by the shareholder and does not trigger a mandatory tender offer, aligning with previous commitments [1] - The reduction will not lead to any changes in the controlling shareholder or actual controller, nor will it impact the company's governance and operations [1] - The company will ensure that You Xiaohua continues to comply with regulations during the reduction period and will disclose information in a timely manner [1]

华峰铝业关于控股股东及其一致行动人 权益变动触及 1%刻度的提示性公告 公司控股股东华峰集团有限公司及其一致行动人上海华峰天准投资合 伙企业(有限合伙)、尤小华、尤金焕保证向本公司提供的信息真实、准确、 完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息 一致。 一、 信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 1.身份类别 | ☑控股股东/实际控制人及其一致行动人 | □其他 | 5%以上大股东及其一致行动人 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资者及其一致行动人的身份 | □合并口径第一大股东及其一致行动人（仅适用 | 于无控股股东、实际控制人） | | □其他______________（请注明） | | | 2.信息披露义务人信息 证券代码：601702 证券简称：华峰铝业 公告编号：2026-001 | 信息披露义务人名称 | | 投资者身份 | 统一社会信用代码 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | □ | 控股股东/实控人 | □ _____________ | | 尤小华 | ☑ | 控股股东/实控人的一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that automotive lightweighting is a significant development direction for the aluminum processing industry, and it will continue to explore related opportunities while enhancing its core competitiveness [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The management will focus on automotive lightweighting opportunities based on its technological accumulation and production capacity layout [1] - The company aims to actively track industry technology trends and market demand changes to improve product innovation and upgrade iterations [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Automotive lightweighting is identified as a key trend in the aluminum processing industry, indicating a shift towards more efficient and innovative applications [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the Chinese economy, monetary policy, and specific companies in the metals and manufacturing sectors, including A-shares, copper, aluminum, and electric equipment manufacturers. Key Points and Arguments Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The current phase of economic recovery in China is linked to the Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts, which is expected to facilitate the return of cross-border capital and improve cash flow statements for Chinese companies [1][2][5] - The necessity of debt restructuring in China is emphasized, drawing parallels to Japan's economic stagnation in the 1990s due to a lack of decisive action in addressing debt issues [2] - The potential for a quantitative easing (QE) policy from the Federal Reserve in the coming year is seen as a critical factor that could allow for debt restructuring in China, leading to a more prosperous economic phase starting in 2026 [4][5] Capital Flows and Currency Dynamics - The depreciation of the RMB during the Fed's rate hikes has been a concern, but with the Fed halting rate increases, there is an expectation for the RMB to appreciate, which could enhance domestic asset values and attract capital back to China [1][5] - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with non-financial A-share companies reporting improved free cash flow over three consecutive quarters [5] Sector-Specific Insights - The metals sector, particularly copper and aluminum, is highlighted as having strong growth potential, with expectations for price increases due to supply constraints [9][10][16] - Companies like Zijin Mining and Huafeng Aluminum are recommended for their strong market positions and growth prospects, with Zijin expected to achieve significant revenue growth by 2026 [10][12][22] - The electric equipment sector, particularly companies like Dongfang Electric, is also noted for its growth potential driven by increased global power generation investments [23][24] Investment Recommendations - A focus on cyclical recovery in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, high-end manufacturing, and new consumption trends is advised, with specific recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining, Huafeng Aluminum, and Dongfang Electric [5][6][23] - The importance of monitoring the performance of companies in the context of macroeconomic changes and sector dynamics is emphasized, with a recommendation to remain cautious about potential volatility in the market [5][22] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include the impact of global economic conditions on domestic markets, the possibility of asset price corrections, and the need for careful management of capital flows to avoid currency depreciation [3][4][5][22] - The importance of understanding the supply-demand dynamics in the metals market, particularly for nickel and cobalt, is highlighted as critical for future investment decisions [18][21] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The records indicate a strong belief in the cyclical nature of the economy, with expectations for a significant recovery phase starting in 2026, which could lead to increased volatility in the A-share market [5][6] - The discussions also touch on the importance of new product developments and market expansions for companies like Huafeng Aluminum, which is diversifying its customer base beyond traditional automotive sectors [15][16]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the potential for a prosperous economic environment in China, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and potential quantitative easing (QE), which will facilitate the return of cross-border capital to China and improve cash flow in the real economy [3][5]. - Key industries highlighted for investment opportunities include non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing [4][6]. Company Insights Zijin Mining - Zijin Mining, the world's third-largest copper mining company, is expected to benefit from rising copper prices and increased production, with projected revenues reaching 80 billion by 2026 and a market capitalization of 1.6 trillion [10]. - The company is seen as a top investment choice due to its strong growth prospects and the favorable market conditions for copper [10]. Huafeng Aluminum - Huafeng Aluminum is recognized for its solid quality and cautious capacity expansion, with a return on equity (ROE) of 20%-25% and a compound growth rate of over 15%. The current valuation is considered low, making it a potential investment target [11]. - The company is expected to benefit from new product launches and applications, with a projected doubling of capacity after the completion of its Chongqing expansion [11]. Huayou Cobalt - Huayou Cobalt's primary profit source is nickel, with expectations of profit doubling within three years, potentially within two years if nickel prices rise. The company is positioned well in the market due to concentrated supply dynamics [13][15]. - The nickel market is dominated by a few large players, with significant influence from Indonesian government policies, which are expected to drive prices higher [14]. Dongfang Electric - Dongfang Electric is positioned to benefit from increased global power investments, particularly in North America, where demand for gas turbines is rising due to AI-driven electricity needs. The company has secured overseas orders for its 750 gas turbine [16][17]. Guotai Junan Securities - Guotai Junan is expected to fully realize integration effects by 2026, with a leading customer base and significant cost reduction potential through business integration. The company reported a revenue of 46 billion and a net profit of 22.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, showing substantial growth [2][22]. - The current valuation is considered low compared to peers, indicating potential investment value [22]. Market Trends and Predictions - The A-share market is anticipated to reach new highs in 2026, with increased volatility. Non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing sectors are expected to perform well due to macroeconomic improvements [6]. - The copper and aluminum markets are projected to see price increases due to tight supply and stable demand over the next two to three years [9]. Additional Insights - The impact of U.S. Federal Reserve policies on the Chinese market is significant, with recent interest rate cuts reversing capital outflows and improving the economic environment [5]. - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from rising prices in phosphate and potash resources due to supply-demand mismatches, with companies like Dongfang Iron Tower making strategic moves in this area [18]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a positive outlook for several industries and companies in China, driven by macroeconomic factors and strategic positioning within their respective markets. Investors are encouraged to consider these opportunities as the economic landscape evolves.

Group 1 - The report indicates that China is entering a period of prosperity similar to Japan in 1978, driven by high industrial value added and export ratios, along with continued trade surpluses and wage growth [1][11] - The cash flow statements of the real economy in China have been damaged from 2022 to 2024 due to the Fed's interest rate hikes and a decline in real estate prices, leading to capital outflows and reduced cash flow [2][12] - The resumption of the Fed's interest rate cuts is expected to reverse the outflow of cross-border capital, thereby repairing the cash flow statements of enterprises and households [3][13] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the necessity of debt restructuring in China, drawing parallels with Japan's experience in the 1990s, where failure to act led to prolonged economic stagnation [4][14] - The potential for the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) to provide the necessary liquidity for China's central bank to undertake debt restructuring is highlighted, which could alleviate external constraints on the yuan [4][14] - The year 2026 is projected to mark the beginning of a new prosperity phase for China's economy, with a cyclical shift expected in manufacturing and consumption sectors [6][15] Group 3 - The report recommends a selection of stocks for January 2026, including Huafeng Aluminum, Zijin Mining, and TCL Technology, among others, indicating a focus on sectors poised for growth [9][10] - The automotive sector is highlighted, with Great Wall Motors and Leap Motor being noted for their strategic positioning in high-end and global markets [32][38] - In the chemical sector, Dongfang Tower is recognized for its growth potential driven by increasing potassium and phosphorus production [41][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities lagging behind commodity prices is expected to change, with market expectations for mid-term price increases strengthening as commodity prices reach new highs [7][11]. - The gold sector is anticipated to benefit from rising commodity prices and inflation expectations due to a decline in non-farm employment, which has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts [7][11]. - The copper sector is viewed positively due to the demand for traditional power grid upgrades, which is expected to support copper consumption and create a supply-demand imbalance favoring copper prices [12]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price increases following the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant and the high copper-aluminum price ratio, which is likely to drive demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [13]. - The steel sector is poised to benefit from the introduction of export license management for certain steel products, which may encourage a shift towards higher value-added product exports [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Supply and demand fundamentals are weak in the off-season, but steel profitability is showing signs of recovery [15]. - Iron output has slightly decreased, while steel demand has shown marginal improvement, with rebar consumption increasing by 2.73% week-on-week [20]. - Overall steel prices have seen a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3345 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in November 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 84.78%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales of new energy passenger cars in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [41]. Price Trends - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, with lithium and cobalt prices rising significantly, while nickel prices have shown mixed trends [46].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance on December 17, with the leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) rising over 3.8% during the day and closing up 3.27%, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][10]. Fund Flows - The non-ferrous metal ETF attracted significant capital, with a single-day inflow of 10.13 million yuan and a total of 198 million yuan over the past 20 days, reflecting investor confidence in the sector's future performance [1][10]. Stock Performance - Lithium stocks surged, with Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit, Zhongmin Resources rising over 8%, Tianqi Lithium increasing by 6%, and Ganfeng Lithium up nearly 5%. In the lead zinc sector, Guocheng Mining also hit the daily limit, while Xingye Silver Tin rose over 6%. In the aluminum sector, Zhongfu Industrial increased by over 5%, Huafeng Aluminum by over 4%, and China Aluminum by over 3% [3][12]. Macro Factors - In the macroeconomic context, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.6%, the highest in four years. This weak job market increases the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support non-ferrous metal prices [4][13]. Industry Insights - Lithium carbonate futures saw a significant spike, rising over 8% to reach 109,860 yuan/ton. The cancellation of 27 mining licenses may impact the supply-demand dynamics of lithium, potentially driving prices higher. CITIC Securities expressed optimism about copper, aluminum, and gold as key investment options, citing limited new copper capacity and increasing demand from renewable energy and AI data centers [5][14]. Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions and geopolitical tensions, non-ferrous metals are viewed as core assets for medium to long-term investment. The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide comprehensive exposure to various metals, allowing for risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [6][14].