Core Viewpoint - The global tanker market, including A-share oil transportation companies, has experienced a significant surge due to geopolitical tensions, with notable increases in stock prices for major players in both A-shares and U.S. markets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 9, A-share VLCC companies such as China Merchants Energy (招商轮船) and COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能) saw stock increases of 9.47% and 8.82% respectively, while U.S. companies like DHT Holdings and Frontline reported gains of 14.4% and 18.7% [1]. - The BDTI index, which tracks global oil tanker rates, experienced a significant drop of 8.49% on January 2 but rebounded by 3.95% on January 8, marking the largest single-day increase since October 2025 [4]. Group 2: Shadow Fleet and Compliance - The "shadow fleet," consisting of tankers involved in sanctioned oil trade, is facing increasing restrictions, with four vessels reported seized by U.S. authorities as of January 7 [1][3]. - According to SYY data, the global VLCC fleet consists of 883 vessels, with 144 under sanctions, indicating a shrinking pool of compliant vessels as the shadow fleet struggles to return to mainstream markets [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Capacity Expansion - China Merchants Energy has forecasted a net profit of 6 to 6.6 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% to 29%, driven by a significant rise in tanker business profits [5]. - COSCO Shipping Energy announced plans to expand its fleet by adding 24 new vessels, demonstrating confidence in the future of the tanker industry [5]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The VLCC market is expected to face a tight supply situation, with only three new VLCCs projected to be delivered in 2025, leading to a negative growth rate of -1.2% when excluding sanctioned vessels [6]. - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the VLCC segment is the most constrained, with demand expected to grow by 0.9% while supply only increases by 0.2% by 2026, highlighting the challenges in the market [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [7] Core Insights - The U.S. military's raid on Venezuela is expected to boost oil shipping demand. Since December 2025, the U.S. has expanded sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, limiting oil exports. Following the raid on January 3, 2026, it was announced that Venezuela may transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., potentially easing sanctions and increasing compliant market shipping volumes [7] - Short-term oil exports from Venezuela may remain constrained, but long-term legalization could enhance compliant market shipping demand. Venezuela's oil production is projected to account for about 1% of global output by 2025, with oil shipping exports making up around 2% of global exports. Currently, 17% of these exports go to the U.S., with over 50% shipped to Asia via shadow fleets [7] - The tightening of sanctions since 2025 has improved oil shipping supply and demand dynamics. The U.S. has intensified sanctions on Iranian shadow fleets, increasing the proportion of sanctioned VLCCs from 8% to 17%. This is expected to further reduce Iranian oil export efficiency, while OPEC+ production increases may help balance the market [7] - Oil shipping rates are anticipated to rise significantly in 2025 due to ongoing crude oil production increases and continued sanctions on shadow fleets. The oil shipping market is expected to recover, with potential for better-than-expected conditions in 2026 [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Related investment targets include COSCO Shipping Energy (600026, not rated) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872, not rated) [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued downward trend in the Shenzhen Grade A office market, with rental prices under pressure and a high vacancy rate, suggesting a cautious investment outlook for the sector [3][5]. Core Insights - The Shenzhen Grade A office market is experiencing significant adjustments, with average effective rents declining to RMB 148.4 per square meter per month, a 2.2% decrease from the previous quarter [3][8]. - The market is characterized by an imbalance between supply and demand, with new supply reaching approximately 219,000 square meters, the highest level this year, while net absorption was only 68,000 square meters, leading to a vacancy rate of 26.1% [3][12]. - The TMT sector remains dominant, accounting for 52.0% of leasing transactions, driven primarily by internet platforms and software development companies [4][12]. Supply and Demand - New supply surged in the third quarter, with major projects like the headquarters of various companies entering the market, while demand has significantly slowed, resulting in a structural oversupply [12]. - The demand structure shows a strong focus on the TMT sector, with professional services and healthcare also contributing to leasing activity [12][4]. - The overall market activity is low, with relocation needs dominating at 77.0%, but the proportion of upgrade relocations has decreased to 31.3%, indicating a trend towards cost control [13]. Rental Trends - Rental prices continue to decline, with the most significant drop observed in the Bao'an submarket at 5.8% [8][11]. - The report anticipates that rental prices will remain under pressure in the fourth quarter, with landlords expected to adopt strategies such as price adjustments and incentives to attract tenants [9][5]. Investment Market - The investment market remains subdued, with only one notable transaction recorded, where China Merchants Shekou transferred a property for RMB 716 million, reflecting a focus on asset optimization and cash flow [19]. - The overall transaction activity is low, with self-use buyers and industrial capital being the primary market participants, indicating a shift towards long-term value preservation [19].

Core Viewpoint - The company, China Merchants Energy Transportation Co., Ltd., anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, driven by market recovery and various non-recurring income sources [2][3][6] Financial Performance - The expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be between RMB 60 billion and 66 billion, representing an increase of RMB 8.93 billion to 14.93 billion compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of 17%-29% [2][5] - For the fourth quarter of 2025, the net profit is expected to increase by RMB 9.62 billion to 15.62 billion, with a growth rate of 55%-90% [2][5] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2025 is projected to be between RMB 50.05 billion and 56.05 billion, with a slight increase of -RMB 10 million to 5.9 billion, reflecting a change of -0.2%-12% year-on-year [2][5] - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to rise by RMB 3.77 billion to 9.77 billion, with a growth rate of 22%-57% [2][5] - In 2024, the total profit was RMB 59.52 billion, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 51.07 billion and earnings per share of RMB 0.63 [2][5] Business Operations - The anticipated growth in 2025 is primarily attributed to the oil tanker fleet capitalizing on market recovery, with expected operating profit growth of 200%-230% in the fourth quarter [3][6] - The company expects a substantial increase in non-recurring income due to factors such as the disposal of old vessels and gains from the acquisition of Antong Holdings stock [3][6] - The dry bulk and ro-ro fleets are projected to experience a temporary decline in operating profits during the reporting period [3][6] - China Merchants is a specialized shipping company focusing on domestic and international cargo transportation, with a diverse fleet including VLCCs, VLOCs, LNG carriers, and container ships [3][6] - The company operates over 350 vessels, ranking among the top globally in terms of capacity, with a leading position in VLCC and VLOC fleets, and a rapidly growing LNG fleet [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping and port sector experienced a 0.6% increase on January 9, with HNA Technology leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - HNA Technology (600751) closed at 4.10, up 3.27% with a trading volume of 911,900 shares and a transaction value of 373 million yuan [1]. - China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) closed at 9.83, up 2.40% with a trading volume of 1,427,000 shares and a transaction value of 1.408 billion yuan [1]. - COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026) closed at 12.71, up 1.36% with a trading volume of 638,700 shares and a transaction value of 813 million yuan [1]. - Tianjin Port Development (600717) closed at 4.59, up 0.88% with a trading volume of 195,000 shares and a transaction value of 89.224 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector saw a net outflow of 305 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 181 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 486 million yuan [2]. - HNA Technology had a net inflow of 32.9017 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 32.0394 million yuan from speculative funds [3]. - China Merchants Energy Shipping experienced a net inflow of 18.1629 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 26.7263 million yuan from retail investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with a projected net profit increase of 17%-29% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the oil transportation sector and non-recurring gains from asset disposals and investments [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 6-6.6 billion yuan for the entire year of 2025, with a quarterly net profit for Q4 expected to be between 2.7-3.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55%-90% [1]. - The operating profit from oil transportation is projected to increase by approximately 200%-230% in Q4, primarily due to a significant rise in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates [2]. - Non-recurring income is expected to rise substantially, attributed to gains from the disposal of old vessels and fair value changes from stock investments [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average VLCC freight rate for Q4 is estimated at $95,500 per day, marking a 167% year-on-year increase, with a notable increase in profitability per vessel [2]. - The compliance phase for Venezuelan oil exports is expected to strengthen the oil transportation market in 2026, with a projected increase in VLCC transportation demand by approximately 1.4% [3]. - The company has delivered a new methanol dual-fuel VLCC, increasing its fleet capacity to 53 vessels, which enhances profit elasticity [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027 at 6.5 billion, 7.45 billion, and 8.92 billion yuan respectively, reflecting confidence in the strong performance of the oil transportation market [4]. - The company's current reset cost is approximately 64.3 billion yuan, with a price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio of 1.21 times, indicating potential for future price increases in shipping assets [4].

格隆汇1月9日｜申万宏源研究指出，招商轮船2025年全年归母净利润预计60-66亿元，同比增长 17%-29%；4季度归母净利润预计27-33亿元，同比增长55%-90%，业绩增长强劲，略超预期。4季度油 运VLCC运价大涨贡献主要增长来源，仍有部分高运价将于2026年1季度确认。考虑到4季度油运市场强 劲表现，维持2025-2027年盈利预测65.0/74.5/89.2亿元。公司目前重置成本约643亿元，P/NAV 为1.21 倍；若考虑未来船价上涨86%（剔除通胀后较历史高点有86%提升空间），重置成本增加至1141亿元， P/NAV 为0.68，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance expectation relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.0 to 6.6 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17% to 29%. The fourth quarter net profit is projected to be between 2.7 to 3.3 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 55% to 90% year-on-year [4][6]. - The strong performance is attributed to a substantial increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates, which saw an average increase of 167% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [6]. - The company has also benefited from non-recurring gains, including profits from the disposal of old vessels and fair value changes from stock acquisitions [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 28.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.9%. The net profit for the same year is projected at 6.501 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.3% [5][8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 30.4% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 14.6% [5][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.81 yuan for 2025, increasing to 1.10 yuan by 2027 [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.0 to 6.6 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17% to 29%. The fourth quarter net profit is projected to be between 2.7 to 3.3 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 55% to 90% year-on-year [4][6]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the oil transportation sector, with VLCC freight rates increasing significantly, contributing to the company's profit growth. The average VLCC freight rate for the fourth quarter is approximately 95,500 USD per day, a year-on-year increase of 167% [6]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in non-recurring income, primarily from the disposal of old vessels and gains from equity investments [6]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 28.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.9%. The net profit for the same year is projected at 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.3% [5][8]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast for the years 2024 to 2027, indicating a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with net profit expected to reach 8.92 billion yuan by 2027 [5][8]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 12.8% in 2024 to 15.8% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [5].

证 券 研 究 报 告 招商轮船（601872）2025 年业绩预告点评 推荐（维持） 公司研究 航运 2026 年 01 月 09 日 目标价：12.0 元 当前价：9.60 元 25 年归母净利预告中值 63 亿，同比+23%， 业绩创新高，继续看好油轮上行景气 ❖ 1、公司公告 2025 年业绩预增公告： 预计 2025 年实现归母净利 60~66 亿，同比+17%~29%，中值 63 亿，同比+23%； 扣非净利 50~56 亿，同比-0.2%~+12%，中值 53 亿，同比+6%；测算非经常性 损益 10 亿。 预计 25Q4 实现归母净利 27~33 亿，同比+55%~90%，中值 30 亿，同比+73%； 扣非净利 21~27 亿，同比+22~57%，中值 24 亿，同比+39%；测算非经常性损 益 6 亿。 我们继续看好此轮油运周期景气持续性，1）供给逻辑不变，截至 26 年 1 月 VLCC 在手订单占比为 17.2%，而 20 岁以上运力占比达 19%，15 岁以上运力 占比超 40%，环保政策趋严背景下老龄化因素对冲少量新船交付；2）被制裁 VLCC 运力占比已升至 16.57%，随着制 ...