Core Viewpoint - The investigation report on the "2·15" fatal accident at Yilan No. 3 Coal Mine of China Coal Energy Heilongjiang Coal Chemical Co., Ltd. reveals that the incident, which occurred on February 15, 2025, resulted in two fatalities due to violations of operational regulations and inadequate safety management [1]. Group 1 - The accident occurred at 7:41 AM on February 15, 2025, leading to the death of two individuals [1]. - The investigation was conducted by a team comprising the National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau Heilongjiang Bureau, the Heilongjiang Provincial Emergency Management Department, and other local authorities [1]. - The direct cause of the accident was identified as workers violating safety protocols by climbing over a fall prevention fence and slipping into a ventilation shaft [1]. Group 2 - The investigation team held 17 individuals accountable, including the two deceased, from Yilan No. 3 Mine, China Coal Longhua Company, and regulatory departments [2]. - The disciplinary actions were proposed by the disciplinary inspection and supervision agencies against 15 individuals, including party members and supervisory targets [2].

记者11日从国家矿山安全监察局黑龙江局获悉，中煤能源黑龙江煤化工有限公司依兰第三煤矿"2·15"一 般坠亡事故调查报告发布，经调查认定，这起发生于2025年2月15日的事故造成2人死亡，是一起因作业 人员违章、安全管理不到位导致的生产安全责任事故。 2025年2月15日7时41分许，中煤能源黑龙江煤 化工有限公司依兰第三煤矿发生一起一般坠亡事故，造成2人遇难。事故发生后，国家矿山安全监察局 黑龙江局会同黑龙江省应急管理厅（黑龙江省煤管局）、哈尔滨市公安局、哈尔滨市应急管理局、哈尔 滨市总工会组成事故调查组开展事故调查工作，并邀请哈尔滨市纪委监委派员介入调查。 经调查认 定，这是一起因作业人员违章、安全管理不到位导致的生产安全责任事故。事故直接原因是：现场作业 人员检查地面主要通风机房风道时，违章翻越防坠栅栏滑入风硐坠入风井，导致事故发生，造成2人死 亡。 事故调查组对依兰三矿、中煤龙化公司和监管部门17名人员（含2名遇难人员）进行了责任认定， 纪检监察机关（机构）依照干部管理权限对15名监察对象和党员干部提出了党纪政务处分意见。（新华 社） ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial metal sector experienced a decline of 2.05% on October 10, with significant losses in certain stocks, particularly Jingyi Co., which fell by 9.37% [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1]. Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the industrial metal sector included: - Pengxin Resources: Closed at 7.99, up 10.06% with a trading volume of 2.11 million shares and a turnover of 1.62 billion - Baiyin Nonferrous: Closed at 5.08, up 9.96% with a trading volume of 2.60 million shares and a turnover of 1.29 billion - Jiangxi Copper: Closed at 42.10, up 7.84% with a trading volume of 1.80 million shares and a turnover of 7.53 billion [1]. - Significant decliners included: - Jingyi Co.: Closed at 14.71, down 9.37% with a trading volume of 768,600 shares and a turnover of 1.18 billion - Jincheng Mining: Closed at 68.08, down 9.08% with a trading volume of 177,300 shares and a turnover of 1.24 billion - Electric Alloy: Closed at 18.26, down 7.82% with a trading volume of 385,300 shares and a turnover of 722 million [2]. Capital Flow - The industrial metal sector saw a net outflow of 6.639 billion from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 5.439 billion [2][3]. - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Baiyin Nonferrous: Main funds net inflow of 177 million, retail funds net outflow of 878.88 million - Pengxin Resources: Main funds net inflow of 170 million, retail funds net outflow of 636.48 million [3].

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply is expected to contract due to the upcoming safety production inspections, which may lead to an increase in coal prices as demand rises in November [2][3]. Group 1: Safety Inspections and Supply Impact - In November, 22 safety inspection teams will enter 31 provinces and regions to conduct annual assessments, focusing on major safety issues and illegal activities in production [2]. - The inspections may lead to rectifications of safety hazards related to overproduction in the coal sector, further tightening coal supply [2][3]. - Since July 2025, the monthly coal output has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, with expectations of further reductions due to the inspections [2]. Group 2: Demand and Price Outlook - The coal price has rebounded during the off-season, stabilizing above 700 yuan/ton by the end of September, primarily due to supply contraction [3]. - As the heating season begins in mid-November, the demand for coal is expected to increase, particularly from non-electric sectors like coal chemical industries, which may support coal prices [3]. - The anticipated supply reduction is expected to end the seasonal price decline early, with projections suggesting coal prices could exceed 900 yuan/ton by year-end [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and rising coal prices, with a focus on companies with high spot market exposure [3]. - Recommended investment targets include: 1. Companies with high spot market elasticity, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy [3]. 2. Stable and growth-oriented companies like Jincheng Anthracite Mining and Huayang Co., Ltd. [3]. 3. Companies with recovery in production, such as Shanxi Coal International [3]. 4. Industry leaders with stable performance, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal sector is experiencing inventory reduction during the National Day holiday, with supply constraints and potential price support due to a tight supply-demand balance [1] Supply Side - During the holiday, some mines underwent maintenance, and three major ports for Mongolian coal were closed for seven days, leading to a rapid decrease in port inventory [1] - Post-holiday, an acceleration in customs clearance is expected, while sea freight coal arrivals have decreased from high levels, resulting in a reduction in supply compared to the previous period [1] Market Performance - According to Zheshang Securities, the import volume of Mongolian coal rebounded in Q3, and supply chain trade profits have also recovered alongside price rebounds [1] - Citic Securities reports that the average net profit of tracked coal listed companies is expected to grow by approximately 18% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decline of about 27% for the first three quarters [1] Price Outlook - The iron and steel production remains high in the context of a "de-involution" environment, and if the coal industry continues to enforce production checks, it may maintain a tight balance in the coking coal supply-demand structure, supporting coking coal prices [1] - The overall supply-demand balance in the industry is expected to remain stable in Q4, with potential short-term supply gaps during peak seasons, and if the de-involution policies are enforced more rigorously, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] Sector Improvement - The current policies, coal prices, and performance expectations for the sector are improving, and there is potential for sustained excess returns as market styles rotate or policies catalyze [1] Related Companies - The coal sector includes companies such as China Shenhua (01088), China Coal Energy (01898), Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171), Yida Zong (01733), Yancoal Australia (03668), and China Qinfa (00866) [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies based on their performance and market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming safety production assessments are expected to lead to a contraction in coal supply, which may support a rebound in coal prices. Since July 2025, the monthly coal output has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, and the anticipated inspections may further tighten supply [1][2]. - The coal price has shown signs of recovery, stabilizing above 700 RMB/ton by the end of September 2025. The report predicts that by the end of the year, coal prices could exceed 900 RMB/ton due to supply constraints and increased demand from the coal chemical sector [2]. - The report highlights several investment opportunities within the sector, particularly focusing on companies with high spot market exposure and those expected to benefit from supply-demand dynamics [2]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The safety inspections scheduled for November 2025 are likely to impact coal supply negatively, reinforcing expectations of reduced output. This is particularly relevant as the country transitions into the heating season, which typically sees increased demand [1][2]. - The report notes that the coal chemical sector is poised to benefit from the seasonal demand increase, providing additional support for coal prices [2]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies based on their market positioning and expected performance: 1. **High Spot Market Exposure**: Lu'an Huanneng (潞安环能) is highlighted for its significant elasticity in response to price changes. 2. **Stable Growth Companies**: Jin控煤业 (晋控煤业) and Huayang Co., Ltd. (华阳股份) are recommended for their robust performance. 3. **Recovery in Production**: Shanmei International (山煤国际) is noted for its potential production recovery. 4. **Industry Leaders**: China Shenhua (中国神华), Zhongmei Energy (中煤能源), and Shaanxi Coal (陕西煤业) are recognized for their stable earnings [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks have seen significant gains, with notable increases in share prices for various companies, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the coal industry [1] Company Performance - Strength Development (01277) increased by 5.76%, trading at 1.47 HKD - China Coal Energy (601898) (01898) rose by 4.37%, trading at 9.8 HKD - Yida Commodity (01733) saw a 3.45% increase, trading at 0.9 HKD - China Shenhua Energy (601088) (01088) gained 2.91%, trading at 38.92 HKD [1] Industry Outlook - Zheshang Securities (601878) forecasts that the overall performance of coal enterprises will see a narrowing year-on-year decline by Q3 2025, with improvements expected on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1] - As the heating season approaches, power plants and heating companies are expected to replenish their stocks, which will support an increase in spot prices due to elevated long-term contract prices [1] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to promote industry self-discipline, driving a reduction in coal supply and further supporting steady price increases [1] - Capacity replacement restrictions are expected to limit production scale, potentially leading to a decrease in capacity due to capacity indicators [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry in the first half of 2025 (25H1) experienced a significant decline in profits, with total profits amounting to 149.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.9% [1][3] Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In 25H1, the coal industry's total profit was 149.2 billion yuan, down 52.9% year-on-year, with profits for Q1 and Q2 at 80.4 billion yuan and 68.8 billion yuan respectively, reflecting declines of 47.4% and 58.1% [1][3] - The average net profit per ton of coal in 25H1 decreased by 30%, with Q2 net profit for the sector declining by 14% quarter-on-quarter, indicating that Q2 may represent the lowest point for the year [3][4] - The number and proportion of loss-making companies in the coal industry continued to rise, reaching a loss ratio of 56% by June 2025, an increase of 13.6 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Debt Levels - Capital expenditure in the coal industry slowed down in 25H1, but listed companies still saw a 47% year-on-year increase, with total capital expenditure reaching 84 billion yuan [2] - The industry's total debt reached a record high of 4.8 trillion yuan, while the asset-liability ratio remained stable at around 60% [2] Group 3: Cost and Expense Management - The average cost per ton of coal decreased, with a reduction of 19.5% and 4.2% in average costs for 25H1, leading to a significant drop in net profit per ton [3][4] - The average return on equity (ROE) for sample companies in 25H1 was only 1.9%, down from 5.4% in 24H1, indicating increased profitability pressure [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The coal market has shown signs of recovery since July 2025, with significant price increases for major coal companies, suggesting potential for improved performance in the second half of the year [3][4] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that are expected to benefit from the stabilization of coal prices and those with strong performance resilience, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [5]

Core Points - The stock price of China Coal Energy increased by 2.02% on October 9, reaching 11.59 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 153.668 billion CNY [1] - The company reported a year-to-date stock price decline of 2.78%, with a 1.53% drop over the last five trading days, but a 3.57% increase over the last 20 days and a 5.54% increase over the last 60 days [1] - The main business revenue composition includes coal business (81.03%), coal chemical business (12.48%), and coal mining equipment manufacturing (6.24%) [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 74.436 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 19.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.705 billion CNY, down 21.28% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 42.873 billion CNY, with 19.185 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 12.08% to 95,000, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 66.186 million shares, and various ETFs such as Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, which increased their holdings [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Greater China Materials** industry, highlighting a **liquidity-driven bull market** supported by **supply disruptions** that are positively impacting commodity prices. The preference is for **gold, copper, and aluminum equities** in this environment [1][4][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Price Forecasts**: - **Aluminum**: Morgan Stanley forecasts $2,659 per ton for 2H2025, which is 6% higher than consensus. For CY2026, the forecast is $2,750, 8% above consensus [10]. - **Copper**: Expected price of $10,047 per ton for 2H2025, 5% above consensus, and $10,650 for CY2026, 9% above consensus [10]. - **Gold**: Projected at $3,719 per ounce for 2H2025, 9% above consensus, and $4,400 for CY2026, 34% above consensus [10]. - **Steel Demand Drivers**: - The **China Steel Demand Drivers** for 2025 include: - **Machinery**: 30% - **Infrastructure**: 17% - **Residential Property**: 14% - **Auto**: 9% [17][19]. - **Copper Consumption Index**: The **China Copper Consumption Index** indicates a significant reliance on sectors such as **Power (47%)**, **White Goods (15%)**, and **Auto (10%)** [21][22]. - **Aluminum Demand Breakdown**: The **China aluminum demand** is driven by: - **Property**: 22% - **Passenger Vehicles**: 20% - **Grid Investment**: 11% [27]. Additional Important Insights - **Infrastructure Spending**: - Infrastructure spending has partially offset the slowdown in new property starts, with a **5.4% YoY increase** in infrastructure spending for the first eight months of 2025 [35][55]. - **Weekly Shipments**: - Weekly cement and rebar shipments in China are being monitored, indicating trends in demand and supply dynamics [55][56]. - **Market Sentiment**: - The overall sentiment in the materials sector remains **attractive**, with Morgan Stanley's research indicating potential conflicts of interest due to business relationships with covered companies [4][5]. - **Analyst Team**: The call featured insights from a team of equity analysts at Morgan Stanley, emphasizing the importance of their research in investment decision-making [3]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Greater China Materials industry and its current market dynamics.