Group 1 - Hong Kong coal stocks experienced significant declines, with China Coal Energy (01898.HK) dropping by 3.32% to HKD 11.65 [2] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171.HK) fell by 2.81%, trading at HKD 11.43 [2] - China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) decreased by 2.39%, with a price of HKD 42.42 [2] - Yancoal Australia (03668.HK) saw a decline of 1.71%, priced at HKD 28.8 [2]

Group 1 - The coal chemical sector is experiencing a downturn, with significant declines in stock prices for several companies [1] - Lansi Heavy Industry has dropped by 5.25%, Antai Group by 4.92%, and Hailu Heavy Industry by 4.78% [1] - Other companies such as Shaanxi Black Cat, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining have also seen declines exceeding 2% [1]

Group 1 - The establishment of Zhongmei Green Science (Xi'an) Ecological Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. has been reported, with a registered capital of 50 million yuan [1] - The company's business scope includes water pollution control, sewage treatment and its recycling, as well as research and development in carbon reduction, carbon conversion, carbon capture, and carbon storage technologies [1] - The company is wholly owned by Zhongmei Xi'an Design Engineering Co., Ltd., which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd. [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, primarily due to adjustments in special reserve funds that led to a decrease in coal cost per ton, alongside an increase in coal prices [12]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.48 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 2.13 billion yuan (-15%) year-on-year [6][12]. - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.78 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.05 billion yuan (-1%) year-on-year, but a significant increase of 1.05 billion yuan (+28%) quarter-on-quarter [6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 12.48 billion yuan, down 15% year-on-year [6]. - In Q3 2025, the company’s net profit was 4.78 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 billion yuan (-1%) but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.05 billion yuan (+28%) [12]. Production and Sales - The company’s self-produced coal sales volume in Q3 2025 was 34.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.15 million tons (+0.4%) but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.09 million tons (-0.3%) [12]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal in Q3 2025 was 482 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 64 yuan per ton (-12%) but an increase of 33 yuan per ton (+7%) quarter-on-quarter [12]. Cost Management - The cost of self-produced coal in Q3 2025 was 247 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 27 yuan per ton (-10%) and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9 yuan per ton (-4%) [12]. - The company increased the use of safety and maintenance expenses, which directly reduced costs, leading to a significant drop in other costs [12]. Profitability - The gross profit from coal in Q3 2025 was 8.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 billion yuan (-13%) but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.3 billion yuan (+19%), with a gross margin of 28%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [12]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 17 billion yuan for 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of 10.76 times based on the closing price on October 29, 2025 [12].

Group 1: Phosphate Chemical Sector - The phosphate chemical sector has seen a significant surge, with stocks like Chengxing Co. and Qingshuiyuan achieving three consecutive trading days of涨停 (limit up) [1][3] - Lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key material for electrolytes, has experienced a price increase of over 100% in the past month, reaching 124,000 yuan per ton as of November 10 [4][5] - The supply-demand situation for iron phosphate is tightening, with the domestic operating rate reaching 81.6%, up 30.1 percentage points year-on-year, and inventory decreasing to approximately 24,500 tons [6] Group 2: Coal Sector - Coal stocks have become active again, with Antai Group hitting涨停 and other companies like Xinji Energy and Zhongmei Energy also seeing gains [1][8] - The coal supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with both thermal coal and coking coal prices having upward elasticity due to strong demand and limited supply growth [8][9] - The coal mining industry is characterized by high asset quality and cash flow among leading companies, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [8][9]

Group 1: Chemical Sector - The chemical sector, particularly phosphorus chemical stocks, has seen significant gains, with stocks like Chengxing Co. and Qingshuiyuan achieving multiple consecutive trading limit increases [1][2] - Lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key material for electrolytes, has experienced a price increase of over 100% in the past month, reaching 124,000 CNY per ton as of November 10 [3][4] - The demand for iron phosphate is tightening due to strong demand in energy storage and power batteries, with the domestic operating rate reaching 81.6%, up 30.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][5] Group 2: Coal Sector - Coal stocks have also been active, with companies like Antai Group hitting trading limits and others like Xinji Energy and Zhongmei Energy seeing significant gains [1][7] - The coal supply-demand balance is improving, with both thermal and coking coal consumption showing growth, leading to a tight supply situation [7][8] - Analysts predict that coal prices will continue to rise due to sustained demand and limited supply growth, with a focus on high-quality coal companies [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that coal prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, with expectations for further increases in the fourth quarter, driven by supply constraints and rising demand from power plants [1] Group 1: Coal Market Overview - As of November 6, 2025, the average daily coal sales from key monitored enterprises reached 7.25 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] - The average daily coal production from key monitored enterprises was 7.37 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [1] - Total coal inventory (including port storage) stood at 23.8 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.9% [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim region was 694 CNY/ton as of November 7, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.31% [2] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1800 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.4% [3] - The price of anthracite coal in Yangquan remained stable at 930 CNY/ton [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a supply-demand gap to widen, with an expected increase in coal consumption of approximately 50 million tons due to heating needs, potentially leading to localized coal shortages [1] - The cumulative coal sales from key monitored enterprises this year reached 215.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on flexible thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua (601088), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225), and others, as well as coking coal companies like Huaibei Mining (600985) and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) [5][6]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing a significant price increase, with domestic coal prices rising due to a surge in overseas coal prices, specifically a 3.3% increase in Australian coal prices and a 2.1% increase in Indonesian coal prices [1][3] - Despite the rise in overseas prices, the imported coal's tax-inclusive price remains lower than the northern port prices by 50-100 RMB, which may exert potential pressure on domestic coal prices [1][3] Key Points on Coal Prices - Northern nine ports have seen a significant year-on-year decrease in coal inventory, down 18% compared to 2023 and 12% compared to 2024, indicating that the inventory accumulation phase is not meeting expectations, which is a key driver for the current price increase [1][5] - The strong performance of coking coal is attributed to reduced imports from Mongolia, production cuts in Shanxi, and environmental reductions in Wuhai, leading to tight supply of main coking coal varieties [1][6] - The stock performance of thermal coal companies has been robust, with leading Hong Kong thermal coal companies seeing stock increases of 6%-10% [1][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The expected increase in coal prices in 2025 is primarily due to a reduction in imported coal (approximately 10 million tons year-on-year) and negative domestic production growth, alongside seasonal demand not following typical patterns [1][9] - The current market is characterized by a significant supply-demand gap, with expectations that if supply does not recover significantly, prices could rise to between 900-1,000 RMB [1][9][15] Challenges Faced by Traders and Power Plants - Traders are facing challenges due to the significant price gap between pit and port prices, leading to losses when shipping coal to ports, which diminishes their willingness to stockpile [1][10] - Power plants are struggling with low long-term contract prices compared to current market prices, leading to procurement challenges and potential rapid depletion of static inventory, which could exacerbate market tensions [1][11] Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to remain tight, with limited immediate relief from increased imports or production from Xinjiang due to stringent safety regulations [1][12][14] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a supply-demand gap comparable to 2020, when coal prices surged from 600 RMB to 1,000 RMB, indicating a potential for continued price increases [1][15] - Predictions for 2025 suggest an average price of around 700 RMB, with a confirmed upward trend for 2026, influenced by the fourth quarter's policy environment [1][16] Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment strategies should focus on flexible varieties such as thermal and coking coal, with specific recommendations for companies like Liu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, and Shanxi International [1][17]

Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo has seen significant procurement amounts from Chinese companies, with Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Group signing contracts worth 2.8 billion RMB, setting a historical record [1] - China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) has signed contracts exceeding 10 billion RMB for high-quality agricultural products and specialty foods during the expo [1] - China Southern Airlines Group's transaction amount exceeded 2 billion USD, marking a six-year high, while China Eastern Airlines signed 19 procurement agreements totaling 1.211 billion USD [1] Group 2 - China Coal Energy Group's subsidiary, China Coal Pingshuo Group, signed a procurement framework agreement with Michelin for giant tires, aiming to promote green and low-carbon development in the mining sector [2] - Nanjing Hongzhao Company has deepened cooperation with German exhibitor Heraeus, focusing on the integration of optoelectronic innovation technologies and high-quality development in industries such as optical fiber, AI, and big data [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the coal economy is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance. It is advisable to allocate the coal sector at low levels [11]. - The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged. The coal price has established a bottom and its central level has reached a new platform. High - quality coal enterprises maintain their core asset attributes, and coal assets are still undervalued with potential for valuation improvement. The coal sector has both dividend characteristics and pro - cyclical elasticity [3]. - In the context of energy inflation, the pattern of tight coal supply and demand in the next 3 - 5 years remains unchanged. High - quality coal enterprises have high - barrier, high - cash, high - dividend, and high - dividend - yield attributes. After a short - term correction, the coal sector has shown high investment value [3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Core Viewpoints and Key Concerns - **Core Viewpoints**: In the short - term, coal supply and demand are basically balanced, but there is a long - term gap. Coal prices are expected to rise further due to tight supply and upcoming seasonal demand. Coal assets are cost - effective, with high win - rate and high odds. The report continues to be bullish on coal and suggests allocation at low levels [11]. - **Key Concerns**: From January to October 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 11.0% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, coal and coking coal imports in India decreased by 1.0% year - on - year, and in Japan decreased by 2.3% year - on - year [13] 3.2 This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector rose 4.43% this week, outperforming the market. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.82% [14]. - The thermal coal sector rose 4.60%, the coking coal sector rose 2.46%, and the coke sector rose 6.42% [15]. - The top three stocks in terms of gains and losses in the coal mining and washing sector were Huayang Co., Ltd. (11.50%), Jinkong Coal Industry (10.11%), and China National Coal Group Corporation (8.54%) [18] 3.3 Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of November 7, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 703.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 694.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term contract price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 684.0 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [23]. - **Thermal Coal Price**: As of November 8, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) from Shanxi was 808 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. International thermal coal FOB prices also increased [29]. - **Coking Coal Price**: As of November 7, the ex - warehouse price of primary coking coal from Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1800 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CIF price of Australian Peak View Mine hard coking coal in China was 212.3 US dollars/ton, up 0.6 US dollars/ton week - on - week [31]. - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: As of November 7, the wagon - loading price of Jiaozuo anthracite was 1020.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The wagon - loading prices of pulverized coal in Changzhi Lucheng and Yangquan increased [39] 3.4 Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of November 7, the capacity utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines was 91.1%, up 0.6 percentage points week - on - week, and that of sample coking coal mines was 83.76%, down 1.0 percentage points week - on - week [46]. - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of November 7, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal thermal coal was - 79.1 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price difference for 4000 - kcal thermal coal was - 75.2 yuan/ton, down 20.1 yuan/ton week - on - week [42]. - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces' coal inventory increased, while daily consumption decreased. Coastal 8 provinces' coal inventory decreased, while daily consumption increased [45]. - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: As of November 7, the Myspic comprehensive steel price index decreased, the price of Tangshan - produced primary metallurgical coke increased, the blast furnace operating rate increased, and the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises increased [64][65]. - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: As of November 7, the prices of urea in some regions decreased, the national methanol, ethylene glycol, and acetic acid price indices decreased, the synthetic ammonia price index increased, the cement price index increased slightly, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and the weekly coal consumption in the chemical industry increased [70][74][76] 3.5 Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: As of November 7, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased to 577.0 tons. The 55 - port thermal coal inventory decreased to 6148.7 tons as of October 31, and the production - area inventory decreased to 292.0 tons [91]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of November 7, the production - area coking coal inventory increased to 165.6 tons, the six - port coking coal inventory increased to 304.3 tons, the coking enterprise inventory increased to 923.8 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased to 787.3 tons [92]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of November 7, the total coke inventory of coking plants, four - port coke inventory, and the total coke inventory of domestic sample steel mills all decreased [94] 3.6 Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of November 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2104.0 points, up 138.0 points week - on - week. As of November 6, the average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway increased slightly week - on - week [108]. - **Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Ports in the Bohai Rim**: As of November 7, the inventory of four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1449.0 tons, the number of anchored ships was 106, and the cargo - to - ship ratio was 13.7, down 4.03 week - on - week [106] 3.7 Weather Conditions - As of November 7, the Three Gorges outflow was 10200 cubic meters per second, down 23.88% week - on - week. - In the next 10 days (November 9 - 18), there will be precipitation in some areas, with high - impact weather including cooling in Xinjiang and central - eastern regions. - In the next 11 - 14 days (November 19 - 22), there will be light precipitation in some areas, and the average temperature in some regions will be different from the normal level [113] 3.8 Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table provides the closing prices, net profits attributable to the parent company, EPS, and P/E ratios of key listed coal companies from 2024A to 2027E [114]. - **Key Announcements**: Companies such as Meijin Energy, China Shenhua, and Hengyuan Coal and Electricity have made announcements regarding project terminations, asset acquisitions, and corporate restructurings [115][116][118]