该行将中煤能源评级降至"沽售"，因公司今年可能录得负数自由现金流，管理层似乎无意提高派息比 例，2025至2027年预测股息回报率仅达3.7%至3.9%，目标价从7.39港元降至7.21港元。该行又指，中国 神华中期业绩展示出盈利具韧性，在上半年煤价下跌期间，其煤炭业务单位利润降幅为最小，维持"持 有"评级，目标价由32.18港元上调至39.48港元。 中银国际发表研究报告指，虽然目前市场预期国内港口煤炭库存水平相对偏低，可为冬季现货动力煤价 格带来支持，但考虑到第二季价格水平逊预期，仍将今年全年现货煤价预测下调4%。该行认为，内地 煤炭板块当前估值水平缺乏吸引力，维持行业"中性"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with significant declines in both thermal and coking coal prices in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [2][3]. Price Trends - In H1 2025, the average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Shanxi origin) Q5500 was 676 CNY/ton, down 22.8% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, the price dropped significantly to an average of 632 CNY/ton, a decrease of 12.4% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The average price of coking coal at Jingtang Port (Shanxi origin) in H1 2025 was 1379 CNY/ton, down 38.8% year-on-year, with Q2 2025 averaging 1315 CNY/ton, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8.8% [1][2]. Company Performance - In H1 2025, 27 listed coal companies (excluding Shanxi Coking Coal) produced a total of 610 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, but sales fell to 650 million tons, down 5.4% year-on-year. The total revenue for these companies was 538.4 billion CNY, a decrease of 18.1% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 billion CNY, down 31.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The weighted average gross margin for these companies was 28.8%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.3%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 4.8%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The coal price is expected to rebound due to policy support and market dynamics, with thermal coal prices projected to recover to long-term contract prices around 700 CNY/ton. The forecast for thermal coal prices in 2025 is around 750 CNY/ton, with a potential peak at 860 CNY/ton [5][6]. - Coking coal prices are anticipated to be influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio suggests target prices for coking coal of 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY for various scenarios [6]. - Despite the overall profit pressure in 2025, many coal companies maintain high dividend yields, with six listed companies announcing interim dividend plans totaling 24.13 billion CNY, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [6].

Core Viewpoint - The National Energy Group's Yulin Circular Economy Coal Comprehensive Utilization Project has officially commenced, aiming to enhance national energy security and promote the development of strategic emerging industries [1] Project Overview - The project is part of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and is one of 102 major projects, focusing on chemical and coal mining, as well as new energy [1] - It includes a total investment of approximately 79.8 billion yuan and covers an area of 559 hectares [1] Technological Innovations - The project will utilize advanced technologies such as coal direct liquefaction and co-processing of alcohols, integrating coal chemical and coal-to-oil processes [1] - It aims to achieve high-end, diversified, and low-carbon transformation of the Yulin coal chemical industry through deep processing of products and coupling with new energy [1] Infrastructure and Capacity - The project will construct 33 sets of process units and supporting public utility projects, including a coal mine with an annual capacity of 13 million tons, two 660 MW ultra-supercritical units, and a 3 million tons/year CCUS facility [1] - Additionally, it will include a 2,900 MW new energy project, with an expected completion and operational date set for 2028 [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" [4]. Core Viewpoints - Coal prices are expected to peak, with pressure remaining in the first half of 2026 but easing compared to the same period in 2025. Demand for electricity coal, combined with the elasticity of coal prices, is likely to lead to prices exceeding 800 RMB/ton in the second half of 2026 [2]. - The report recommends core companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, while continuing to recommend Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [4]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Analysis - In July, national electricity consumption increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and thermal power generation rose by 4.3%, indicating a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [4]. - Raw coal production in July was 380 million tons, a decrease of 40 million tons month-on-month, primarily due to extreme weather in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi [4]. - For the second half of the year, production is expected to decline slightly due to "overproduction checks," with total production projected at 2.35 to 2.4 billion tons, maintaining year-on-year stability [4]. Price Trends - As of September 12, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 688 RMB/ton, down 3 RMB/ton (-0.4%) from the previous week [7]. - The price of Q5000 coal at Huanghua Port was 595 RMB/ton, down 8 RMB/ton (-1.3%) from the previous week [10]. - The report notes that domestic coal prices are stabilizing while imports continue to decline, leading to an overall downward trend in supply [4]. Focus on Coking Coal - As of September 12, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1550 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [35]. - The average price of metallurgical coke at major domestic ports was 1653 RMB/ton, down 43 RMB/ton (-2.5%) from the previous week [60]. Inventory and Production Rates - As of September 12, 2025, coking coal inventory at three major ports totaled 2.646 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% from the previous week [51]. - The operating rate of coking enterprises with production over 200 million tons was 79.18%, showing a slight increase [4]. Long-term Contracts - The annual long-term contract price for Q5500 coal at Northern Ports was 674 RMB/ton, up 6 RMB/ton (0.9%) month-on-month [33]. - The report indicates that long-term contract prices for coking coal remained stable compared to the previous week [69].

Group 1 - Coal stocks saw significant gains in the afternoon, with Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) up 5.81% at HKD 9.83, China Qinfeng (00866) up 3.79% at HKD 3.01, China Shenhua (601088) up 2.42% at HKD 38.02, and China Coal Energy (601898) up 1.06% at HKD 9.57 [1] - On September 15, the domestic coking coal futures market experienced a strong upward trend, with both coking coal and coke futures rising over 5% [1] - A coal mine in Luliang, Shanxi Province, was reported to have suspended operations on September 14, with an uncertain timeline for resumption and a certified production capacity of 1.2 million tons [1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities (601878) noted that the seasonal expectations in September are suppressing coal prices, with spot prices gradually approaching long-term contracts, indicating a potential bottoming out and rebound in coal prices [1] - As coal prices align more closely with long-term contracts (with low calorific value discounts), downstream purchasing enthusiasm is expected to increase [1] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, supply and demand are anticipated to gradually balance, leading to a steady rise in coal prices, maintaining a "positive" outlook for the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply-demand fundamentals are expected to improve due to the "check overproduction" policy leading to reduced output and the anticipated recovery in non-electric coal demand during the "golden September and silver October" peak season, providing upward price elasticity for both types of coal [1][3]. Group 1: Coal Price Dynamics - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with expectations for prices to rebound to long-term contract prices, recently surpassing the second target price of around 700 CNY per ton [2]. - The current adjustment in prices is attributed to the seasonal transition from summer to autumn, which has weakened coal consumption, but the upcoming peak season is expected to drive prices up again, particularly in the chemical sector [2][3]. - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY for different levels of market performance [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The coal sector exhibits dual attributes of cyclical elasticity and stable dividends, with many coal companies maintaining high dividend yields despite overall profit pressures [3]. - Six listed coal companies have announced interim dividend plans totaling 24.13 billion CNY, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3]. - Key coal stocks benefiting from these trends include: - Cycle logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源, 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 - Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 - Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that coal prices have rebounded at the long-term contract benchmark of 675 CNY/ton, with a stable layout in the coal sector [1][13] - The report highlights that the current prices for thermal coal and coking coal have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery [4][13] - The report emphasizes the dual logic of cyclical elasticity and stable dividends in coal stocks, suggesting that the current low holdings in coal provide a good opportunity for investment [5][14] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with prices expected to rebound to the long-term contract price, currently above the second target price of around 700 CNY [4][13] - The report predicts that the thermal coal price will reach the third target price of approximately 750 CNY in 2025, with a potential peak at around 860 CNY [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with target prices set at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY corresponding to thermal coal price targets [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: Companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Companies like Shenhua Energy and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight increase of 0.33%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.05 percentage points [8][28] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.17, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market, while the PB ratio is 1.23 [28]

Group 1 - The company, China Coal Energy (601898.SH), announced a projected commodity coal production of 11.6 million tons for August 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1] - The company's commodity coal sales are expected to reach 20.85 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) announced a decrease in both coal production and sales for August 2025, indicating potential challenges in the coal market [1] Group 1: Production and Sales Data - The company's coal production for August 2025 is projected to be 11.6 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1] - The coal sales volume is expected to reach 20.85 million tons, which reflects a year-on-year decline of 12.8% [1]

中煤能源(01898HK)在港交所发布公告称，前8月商品煤销量17070万吨，同比下跌5.6%；8月商品煤销 量为2085万吨，同比下跌12.8%。 ...