国海证券：中煤能源投资价值凸显，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed, with the CITIC Coal Index declining by 10.77% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 10.80 percentage points, ranking last among 30 industries [1][14][15] - The decline is attributed to weak demand for thermal power, leading to a continuous drop in coal prices and a significant decrease in coal company profits, raising concerns about the sustainability of high dividends in the coal industry [1][15] Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the proportion of active funds holding coal stocks decreased to 0.36%, down 0.08 percentage points from Q1 2025. Index funds' holdings also fell to 0.71%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [1][19] - The combined holding of both types of funds in the coal sector is now 0.52%, down 0.09 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1][19] Cost Perspective on Coal Price Valuation - The complete cost curve for 16 listed thermal coal companies indicates that the complete cost per ton of coal is approximately 390 CNY/ton, suggesting a port price of 640 CNY/ton. The port coal price fell to 618 CNY/ton in early June, indicating that over 20% of coal production capacity could face losses at this price level [2] - The current coal price is considered low in terms of valuation, as it is near the cost line, which could lead to production cuts if prices remain below cost [2] Historical Policy Interventions - Historical analysis shows that significant policy interventions were necessary for coal price reversals in 2008, 2015, and 2020. Each price bottom was accompanied by government actions to stimulate demand or control supply [3] - The report emphasizes that policy intervention is a necessary condition for coal price recovery, with expectations for potential government actions to support prices in the current context [3] Thermal Coal Price Outlook - The report suggests that the current thermal coal price of 618 CNY/ton may represent a bottom, with potential for recovery driven by improved demand in the second half of 2025 [4][6] - Two scenarios are outlined: an optimistic scenario where demand improves significantly, and a pessimistic scenario where demand remains weak, potentially leading to further price declines [6] Coking Coal Market Dynamics - The coking coal market has seen significant price drops due to supply-demand imbalances, with low-sulfur coking coal prices falling to around 1100 CNY/ton. The report indicates that this decline has already reflected market expectations [5][7] - The report highlights the importance of inventory rebuilding and the enforcement of production limits to support price recovery in the coking coal market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with significant earnings elasticity like Lu'an Huanneng and Jinneng Holding [8] - The report also notes the potential for price recovery in coking coal, with expectations for prices to rise to a range of 1500-2000 CNY/ton in the long term [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise in the coal industry with a long resource duration and optimized asset structure, which together catalyze its growth potential [9][20] - The company has a strong financial position with a high dividend payout capability, aiming to align with high-dividend companies in the sector [9][30] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a 58.41% stake as of April 2025. It operates in coal mining, coal chemical, power generation, and coal mining equipment manufacturing [9][11] - In 2024, the company's coal, coal chemical, and coal mining equipment businesses generated revenues of 1,600.68 billion, 204.27 billion, and 109.03 billion CNY, respectively, contributing 84.51%, 10.79%, and 5.76% to total revenue [14] Coal Business - The company possesses abundant coal resources, with a total resource volume of 265.20 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 138.21 billion tons, ranking third and second among coal enterprises, respectively [9][34] - The company has a high long-term contract ratio, which helps stabilize profits despite market price fluctuations. In 2024, the gross profit from coal operations was 396.28 billion CNY, with a net profit of 152 CNY per ton [9][40] Coal Chemical Business - The company has diversified its coal chemical products, including polyethylene, methanol, urea, and ammonium nitrate, with a stable self-sufficiency rate and declining raw material coal prices supporting its gross margin [9][10] - The gross profit from coal chemical operations in 2024 was 31.12 billion CNY, maintaining a gross margin above 15% [9][10] Coal Mining Equipment Business - The coal mining equipment business achieved a production value of 103.5 billion CNY in 2024, with a stable gross margin of around 17% to 18% over the past five years [9][10] Power Business - The company is focusing on coal-electricity integration and accelerating the development of renewable energy projects, with significant capital investments planned for 2025 [9][10] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to generate revenues of 1,688.80 billion, 1,765.91 billion, and 1,846.27 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 162.11 billion, 175.57 billion, and 189.54 billion CNY, respectively [9][10] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 10.09, 9.32, and 8.63 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is expected to recover to the second target of 700 yuan, with a steady layout in the coal sector [5][13] - The current price of thermal coal has rebounded to above the first target price of 670 yuan, which is the annual long-term contract price for central enterprises [5][13] - The report highlights that the fundamentals of thermal coal remain favorable, with supply constraints and high demand during the summer season [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached the right side of the turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity [5][13] - The current price has surpassed the first target and is expected to reach the second target of around 700 yuan [5][13] - Future expectations include a potential recovery to a third target price of approximately 750 yuan and a fourth target price of around 860 yuan [5][13] Key Indicators Overview - The coal index increased by 3.65%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.41 percentage points [8][26] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.12, and the PB ratio is 1.24, ranking low among all A-share industries [28] Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of August 8, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 682 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 11.99% from the lowest price of 609 yuan earlier this year [4][21] - The operating rate of coal mines in the main production areas is at 80.1%, indicating a relatively low level for the year [4][21] - Port inventories have decreased by 25.6% from the highest level of 33.16 million tons earlier this year [4][21] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1610 yuan/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 yuan [4][22] - Coking coal futures have seen a significant rebound, increasing by 70.65% from 719 yuan in early June to the current price [4][22] - The report notes a strong expectation for coking coal prices, driven by supply tightening measures and demand from the steel industry [4][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for coal mining companies [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - Global thermal coal exports decreased by 5.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total shipments dropping from 378.65 million tons in 2024 to 359.65 million tons [2]. - The report highlights the importance of major coal enterprises such as China Coal Energy and China Shenhua, as well as companies showing potential for turnaround like China Qinfa [3]. - The report notes that coal prices are stabilizing after a period of decline, with Newcastle coal prices at $116 per ton and South African Richards Bay coal at $92.4 per ton [6][34]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Industry Overview - The report indicates a 5% decline in global thermal coal exports in the first half of 2025, with significant drops in major exporting countries like Indonesia and Australia [2][6]. - Indonesia's coal exports fell by 6% due to weather disruptions and regulatory changes, while Australia's exports decreased by 4% due to operational bottlenecks [6]. Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises such as China Coal Energy and China Shenhua, as well as turnaround candidates like China Qinfa [3]. - Other recommended stocks include Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, Yancoal, and Jin Control Coal Industry, which are expected to perform well in the coming years [3][7]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Coal prices are showing signs of stabilization, with Newcastle coal prices at $116 per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while South African coal prices decreased slightly [6][34]. - The report notes that the demand for coal power is stabilizing, particularly during peak demand seasons [36].

Group 1 - The company, China Coal Energy (01898.HK), announced that it will hold a board meeting on August 22, 2025 [1] - The meeting will review and approve the group's interim results for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] - The board will also consider the distribution of an interim dividend [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本通知的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本通知全部或任何部份內容 而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 於本通知刊發日期，本公司的執行董事為王樹東、廖華軍和趙榮哲；非執行董事 為徐倩；獨立非執行董事為景奉儒、詹豔景和黃江天。 * 僅供識別 董事會會議通知 中國中煤能源股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）謹此公佈，本 公司將於 2025 年 8 月 22 日（星期五）舉行董事會會議，藉以（其中包括）(i)審 議及批准本集團（包括本公司及其附屬公司）截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日止六個月之 中期業績，並(ii)考慮派發中期股息。 承董事會命 中國中煤能源股份有限公司 董事長、執行董事 王樹東 中國北京 2025 年 8 月 8 日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-term price inversion of annual coal contracts has been resolved, boosting market confidence as the Qinhuangdao port's 5500 kcal thermal coal spot price rose to 667 RMB/ton on August 4, 2025, exceeding the annual contract price for the same grade coal [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price inversion lasted from February 28, 2025, to August 4, 2025, leading to a decline in contract fulfillment rates during this period [3]. - The combination of peak summer demand and anti-involution policies has accelerated the rise in market coal prices, restoring market confidence [3]. Group 2: Price Expectations - The bottom for coal prices has been established, with expectations for price increases potentially exceeding market forecasts [3]. - The rise in coal prices began with thermal coal, but the increase in coking coal has outpaced expectations, indicating a stronger market than anticipated [3]. Group 3: Stock Market Implications - Coal stocks are responding positively to favorable market conditions, with significant upward potential remaining [3]. - The market is increasingly focused on policy implementation and supply-demand dynamics, with several short-term supply constraints expected to benefit coal prices [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal, Shanmei International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coal, Pingmei Shares, and Huaibei Mining, which are considered elastic stocks [4]. - Leading coal enterprises such as Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy, and China Shenhua are still viewed as having high allocation value [4].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" with an upward adjustment [4] Core Viewpoints - The long-term price inversion of annual contracts has been resolved, boosting market confidence. The previous inversion lasted from February 28, 2025, to August 4, 2025, leading to a decline in contract fulfillment rates. The combination of peak summer demand and anti-involution policies has accelerated the rise in market coal prices, restoring market confidence [1][2] - The bottom of coal prices has been reached, with expectations for price increases potentially exceeding market forecasts. The current rise in coal prices began with thermal coal, and the upward momentum for coking coal has outpaced that of thermal coal. The low point of the year has passed, and it is expected that prices will not decline again in the second half of the year [2] - The resolution of the long-term price inversion is likely to trigger positive feedback, enhancing contract fulfillment rates, improving spot demand, and further increasing spot prices. Coal stocks have shown a strong response to positive news, with significant upward potential remaining [2] Summary by Sections - **Market Dynamics**: The recent increase in the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port has surpassed the annual contract price, indicating a shift in market dynamics. The market is currently experiencing a recovery in confidence due to the resolution of the long-term price inversion [1][2] - **Investment Recommendations**: With the acceleration of coal price increases, coal stocks are expected to perform well. Key stocks to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, Shanmei International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, Pingmei Shenma, and Huaibei Mining. Leading coal companies such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua also present high allocation value [2]

从中证煤炭指数持仓样本的行业来看，能源占比100.00%。 数据统计显示，中证煤炭指数近一个月上涨6.07%，近三个月上涨8.85%，年至今下跌7.58%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 从指数持仓来看，中证煤炭指数十大权重分别为：陕西煤业（9.8%）、中国神华（8.74%）、兖矿能源 （8.01%）、中煤能源（7.66%）、山西焦煤（7.07%）、潞安环能（5.75%）、美锦能源（4.81%）、淮 北矿业（4.67%）、华阳股份（4.51%）、平煤股份（4.22%）。 金融界8月6日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证煤炭指数 (中证煤炭，399998)上涨2.24%，报2042.16点， 成交额103.82亿元。 从中证煤炭指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比83.88%、深圳证券交易所 ...