Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has declined due to falling self-produced coal prices, but it shows potential for high dividends and growth [1][4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.6% [1][4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 17.05 billion, 18.47 billion, and 19.07 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year change of -11.8%, +8.3%, and +3.3% [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 3.98 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year and 15.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][4] - The average selling price of self-produced coal in Q1 2025 was 491.7 yuan per ton, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year [4] - The comprehensive cost of coal in Q1 2025 was 371 yuan per ton, down 13.4% year-on-year [4] Business Growth Potential - The company has ongoing construction of two coal mines, with expected production capacities of 4 million tons/year and 2.4 million tons/year, respectively [5] - The company plans to enhance its dividend payout, with a total cash dividend of 6.35 billion yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend ratio of 32.87% [5] - The current dividend yield is 4.6%, indicating strong potential for continued high dividends [5] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.29, 1.39, and 1.44 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.1, 7.5, and 7.3 times [1][7] - The company's total market capitalization is 1384.20 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 955.47 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The "national team" has increased holdings in hard technology, domestic demand, and financial insurance sectors while reducing positions in multiple energy stocks during Q1 2025 [1][2] - Over 2,400 A-share listed companies have disclosed their Q1 2025 reports, with more than 360 companies showing "national team" as a major shareholder [1] - The most significantly increased stock by the "national team" is China Ping An, with an additional 252 million shares acquired in Q1 2025, totaling 1.471 billion shares held [1] Group 2 - The "national team" has notably reduced holdings in the energy sector, with China Aluminum seeing a decrease of over 50 million shares, and other companies like Chifeng Gold and Shenhuo Co. also experiencing significant reductions [2] - Insurance funds are focusing on key industries related to national livelihood, with the Honghu Fund, initiated by China Life and Xinhua Insurance, achieving a good performance with investments totaling 50 billion yuan [2][3] - The second batch of long-term investment trials for insurance funds was approved, expanding the total scale from 500 billion yuan to 1.62 trillion yuan, with eight insurance companies participating [3] Group 3 - The Honghu Fund has increased its stake in Shaanxi Coal and has become a significant shareholder, holding over 116 million shares as of Q1 2025 [3][4] - The Honghu Fund also entered the top ten shareholders of China Telecom and holds 76.174 million shares, maintaining its position in Q1 2025 [4] - Insurance companies have mirrored the "national team's" strategy by reducing energy stock holdings while increasing positions in key sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that in Q1 2025, the company experienced a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit, with revenue at 38.4 billion yuan (down 15.4%) and net profit at 4 billion yuan (down 20%) [4][5] - The coal production and sales showed slight growth, with production at 33.35 million tons (up 1.9%) and sales at 64.14 million tons (up 0.4%) [5] - The report emphasizes the improvement in coal chemical business margins, with overall coal chemical gross profit increasing by 8% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a return on equity (ROE) of 2.58%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 18% to 492 yuan per ton, with specific prices for thermal coal and coking coal at 454 yuan (down 11.7%) and 922 yuan (down 39.1%) respectively [5] - The gross profit margin for self-produced coal was 45.2%, down 6 percentage points year-on-year [5] Coal Business - The company produced 33.35 million tons of commodity coal in Q1 2025, with sales of 64.14 million tons [5] - The sales volume of thermal coal and coking coal was 30.02 million tons (up 1.4%) and 2.66 million tons (down 1.5%) respectively [5] Coal Chemical Business - The report indicates significant improvements in unit profitability for polyethylene, polypropylene, and methanol, with gross profits per ton increasing by 85 yuan, 235 yuan, and 446 yuan respectively [5] - The sales volume for polyethylene and polypropylene was 178,000 tons (down 6.8%) and 177,000 tons (down 2.7%) respectively [5] - The overall gross profit for the coal chemical business was 862.6 million yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue of 168.88 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 11%, followed by a 5% growth in the subsequent years [7][9] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 16.21 billion yuan, down 16% from the previous year, with an expected recovery in the following years [7][9] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's ability to generate stable earnings due to its high long-term contract ratio and ongoing projects in coal mining and chemical sectors [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in coal prices, with thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port showing a decline of 2.28% to 2.04% as of April 25, 2025, while supply is expected to contract due to production costs reaching critical levels [1] - The report anticipates a reduction in coal imports due to the rainy season in Indonesia affecting production and transportation, alongside a call from the coal industry association to control low-quality coal imports [1] - The report notes an increase in coal demand, with daily average coal outflow from the four ports in the Bohai Rim rising by 35.99% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in demand despite the traditional off-peak season [1] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses various safety measures and projects in the coal industry, including the commencement of a coal-to-natural gas pipeline project in Xinjiang, which aims to enhance local coal consumption [9] - It also mentions regulatory efforts in Henan province to improve gas prevention in coal mines [9] Price Trends - The report indicates a decline in domestic thermal coal prices, with specific prices reported for various regions, such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, showing decreases of up to 10 CNY/ton [10] - Coking coal prices remained stable, with prices reported for major coking coal regions holding steady [13] Inventory and Supply - The report notes an increase in coal inventory at major power plants, with a total of 14.08 million tons reported, reflecting a 1.08% increase week-on-week [5] - The Bohai Rim port inventory decreased by 2.66% to 31.09 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [22] Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have risen slightly, with an average increase of 0.31% reported [29] - International shipping costs also saw an increase, particularly for coal transportation from Indonesia to China [29] Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2023 to 2026 [35]

Industry Overview - In the first quarter of this year, China's coal supply was overall ample, with a cumulative industrial raw coal output of approximately 1.2 billion tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [1][5] - The coal market has experienced a significant price decline, with the average spot price of Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal dropping approximately 20% year-on-year to 721 RMB/ton [3][5] - The coal mining and washing industry reported a total profit of 50.7 billion RMB in January-February, a year-on-year decrease of 47.3%, with operating revenue down 19.3% to 404.5 billion RMB [3][5] Company Performance - Among 22 coal companies that disclosed their performance, 19 reported a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter, with 15 companies experiencing a year-on-year decline of around 20% [1] - Yunwei Co., Ltd. (600725.SH) reported a revenue of 149 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 33.2%, and a net loss of 3.31 million RMB, a staggering drop of 8359% [1] - Panjiang Coal and Electricity (600395.SH) achieved a revenue growth of 27.33% to 2.482 billion RMB, but reported a net loss of 105 million RMB, a decline of over 590% year-on-year [2] - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) saw its revenue decrease by 21.1% to 69.585 billion RMB, with a net profit decline of approximately 18% to 11.949 billion RMB [2][3] - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) reported a net profit decline of about 20% to 3.978 billion RMB, while Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) recorded a net profit of 2.71 billion RMB, down nearly 28% year-on-year [2][3] Market Dynamics - The decline in coal sales volume and average selling prices has been identified as the primary reason for the performance downturn among major coal companies [3] - The overall weak demand for coal from downstream industries has led to a decrease in coal sales volume, railway transport turnover, and shipping volume for companies like China Shenhua [3] - The coal market is expected to remain relatively loose, with potential stabilization in demand as macroeconomic conditions improve and seasonal coal demand returns [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal mining industry [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a 2.9% year-on-year decline in Russian coal maritime exports for Q1 2025, with the proportion of loss-making coal companies in the Kuzbass region rising to 57% [2][3]. - Global energy prices have shown a downward trend, with Brent crude oil futures settling at $66.87 per barrel, down 1.60% from the previous week, and natural gas prices also declining significantly [1][3]. - The report emphasizes potential investment opportunities in companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, particularly those involved in share buybacks [3][6]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - In Q1 2025, coal production in the Kuzbass region decreased to 51 million tons, a 3.6% decline year-on-year [3]. - The report notes that the total losses in the Russian coal industry could exceed $3.1 billion in 2025, doubling from $1.4 billion in 2024 [3][5]. - The report provides specific coal price data, indicating that Newcastle port coal prices are at $93.8 per ton, down 1.4% from the previous week [1][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, with a particular emphasis on those that are initiating share buybacks [3][6]. - The report also mentions the potential for increased investment in companies like Huayang and Gansu Energy [3]. Market Trends - The report indicates a significant drop in coal prices across various markets, with European ARA port coal prices at $92.3 per ton, down 7.6% from the previous week [1][37]. - The overall trend in the coal mining industry is characterized by a challenging market environment, with many companies facing financial difficulties due to rising production costs and declining prices [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal mining industry [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant decline in Russian coal exports, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% in Q1 2025, and notes that the proportion of loss-making coal companies in the Kuzbass region has risen to 57% [2][3]. - Global energy prices have shown a downward trend, with Brent crude oil prices at $66.87 per barrel, down 1.60% from the previous week, and coal prices at European ARA ports dropping to $92.3 per ton, a decrease of 7.6% [1][3]. - The report emphasizes potential investment opportunities in companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, particularly those involved in share buybacks, which are seen as a positive signal for the industry [3][6]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - Russian coal exports via sea decreased by 2.9% in Q1 2025, with exports to China down by 21.5%, accounting for 30% of total sea exports [5][6]. - The Kuzbass region's coal mining output fell to 51 million tons in Q1 2025, a 3.6% decline year-on-year [5][6]. - The report predicts that the total losses in the Russian coal industry could exceed $3.1 billion in 2025, doubling from $1.4 billion in 2024 [5][6]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks for investment include: - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2024A at 2.31 [6]. - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2024A at 2.95 [6]. - Other notable mentions include Huaiyin Mining, Jinneng Holding, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [3][6]. Price Trends - Coal prices have shown a consistent decline, with Newcastle coal at $93.8 per ton, down 1.4% from the previous week, and South African Richards Bay coal at $88.1 per ton, down 0.9% [1][3][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [10][11] - The coal price is believed to have reached a bottom, with expectations of a rebound in demand for replenishment in mid to late May [10][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of April 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 657 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [22][27] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 70.6 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [22][27] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1400 CNY/ton [29] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94.2%, down 1.7 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 88.38%, up 0.68 percentage points [10][44] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 10.70 thousand tons/day (-3.5%), while consumption in coastal provinces increased by 4.40 thousand tons/day (+2.48%) [10][45] Inventory Situation - As of April 24, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 186.10 thousand tons, while inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 24.50 thousand tons [45] - The available days of coal in inland provinces increased by 1.60 days, while it decreased by 0.50 days in coastal provinces [45] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant rebound potential like Yanzhou Coal and Datong Coal [11]

煤炭周报 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变 2025 年 04 月 26 日 ➢ 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变。2025 年 4 月关税冲突 加码以来，受下游需求萎缩影响，沿海八省电厂日耗同比出现下降，3 月底周均 日耗 187.1 万吨，同比增加 3.5 万吨(+1.9%)，而截至 4 月 24 日当周，周均日 耗降至 176.0 万吨，同比减少 2.9 万吨(-1.6%)，在此影响下，煤价持续窄幅震 荡，本周环比延续小幅下滑。但同时，持续低煤价下新疆、内蒙古以露天矿为主 的边际产能产量或出现缩减，发运倒挂叠加大秦线检修，港口库存略有去化。展 望后市，非电需求仍维持缓慢提升，煤价向上动力不足，大秦线检修结束后铁路 发运提升，港口或有累库风险，边际产能成本、进口煤价倒挂以及长协基准价对 港口煤价有支撑，下行压力亦有限，预计短期现货价仍以窄幅震荡为主，长协价 仍表现出低波韧性。 ➢ 焦煤短期窄幅震荡为主，旺季或有阶段性反弹但空间有限。当前煤价下部分 配焦原煤转为动力煤销售更具性价比，焦煤价格已基本见底，叠加近期高炉持续 复产，铁水产量已提升至 2024 年以来最高水平 244.35 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, among others [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal consumption has decreased due to tariff disruptions, with daily consumption in coastal provinces dropping from 1.871 million tons in late March to 1.760 million tons by April 24, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [1][7]. - Despite low coal prices, there is a lack of upward momentum for coal prices, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in the short term [1][8]. - The report suggests that while there may be a temporary rebound in coking coal prices due to seasonal demand, the overall price increase potential remains limited [2][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the coal price has been experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent prices reported at 657 CNY/ton for Qinhuangdao port, down 8 CNY from the previous week [8]. - The report indicates that the overall coal market is influenced by both weak demand and tariff disruptions, leading to cautious market sentiment [2][8]. Company Performance - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their stable performance and strong cash flow [2][11]. - The report provides earnings forecasts for major companies, with China Shenhua expected to have an EPS of 2.95 CNY in 2024, and a PE ratio of 13 [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a weekly decline of 0.8% in the coal sector compared to gains in major indices [12][14]. - It also notes that the coking coal market is expected to stabilize in the short term due to increased demand for steelmaking [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with stable earnings, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with strong cash flow like Jinkong Coal [2][11]. - It emphasizes the defensive value of companies with low debt and high cash flow amidst ongoing tariff disruptions [8].