Market Overview - The Investment Clock Index (399391) closed at 3348.4 points, down 0.13%, with a trading volume of 67.987 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.74% [1] - Among the index constituents, 28 stocks rose while 71 stocks fell, with China High-Tech leading the gainers at an 8.25% increase and Xi'an Catering leading the decliners with a 5.74% drop [1] Top Constituents - The top ten constituents of the Investment Clock Index include: - Kweichow Moutai (16.68% weight) at 1423.98 yuan, down 0.36% [1] - China Merchants Bank (15.74% weight) at 43.22 yuan, up 0.49% [1] - Zijin Mining (7.34% weight) at 30.69 yuan, up 2.40% [1] - Wuliangye (5.26% weight) at 114.45 yuan, down 0.99% [1] - Hengrui Medicine (4.84% weight) at 61.25 yuan, up 0.46% [1] - Gree Electric Appliances (4.03% weight) at 40.94 yuan, up 0.32% [1] - Yili Industrial (3.04% weight) at 28.99 yuan, down 0.96% [1] - Northern Rare Earth (2.49% weight) at 46.66 yuan, down 1.19% [1] - Fuyao Glass (2.35% weight) at 63.82 yuan, down 1.25% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao (2.31% weight) at 127.71 yuan, down 3.76% [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Investment Clock Index constituents totaled 3.827 billion yuan, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 1.326 billion yuan and retail investors had a net inflow of 2.502 billion yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for specific stocks includes: - China High-Tech with a net inflow of 1.30 billion yuan from main funds [2] - Yunnan Copper with a net inflow of 85.73 million yuan from main funds [2] - Weichai Power with a net inflow of 82.78 million yuan from main funds [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that copper prices have surpassed $11,000 per ton due to supply disruptions and heightened market tensions, leading to an optimistic outlook for copper prices and related stocks in the coming year [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on Zijin Mining (02899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) H-shares, citing strong profit growth and diversified assets in copper, gold, and cobalt as supporting factors [1] - The target price for Zijin Mining is set at HKD 42, while the target price for Luoyang Molybdenum has been raised from HKD 13.5 to HKD 22 [1] Group 2 - Despite a positive outlook on copper, Morgan Stanley has downgraded Jiangxi Copper (00358) H-shares to "underweight," with the target price increased from HKD 15 to HKD 28 due to ongoing weak processing and refining fees and slowing profit growth [1] - The firm believes Zijin Mining is relatively well-valued compared to its peers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that copper prices have surpassed $11,000 per ton due to supply disruptions and heightened market tensions, leading to an optimistic outlook for copper prices and related stocks in the coming year [1] Group 1: Copper Market Outlook - Strong demand, severe supply disruptions, and reduced smelting capacity in China are driving the positive outlook for copper prices [1] - The expectation is that copper will continue to outperform the market next year [1] Group 2: Company Ratings - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Zijin Mining (601899)(02899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993), citing strong profit growth and diversified assets in copper, gold, and cobalt [1] - The target price for Zijin Mining is set at HKD 42, while Luoyang Molybdenum's target price has been raised from HKD 13.5 to HKD 22 [1] - Zijin Mining is preferred due to its relatively reasonable valuation [1] Group 3: Jiangxi Copper Rating - Despite a positive outlook for copper, Morgan Stanley has a "Underweight" rating on Jiangxi Copper (600362)(00358), citing ongoing weak processing and refining fees and slowing profit growth [1] - The target price for Jiangxi Copper has been increased from HKD 15 to HKD 28 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that copper prices have surged past $11,000 per ton due to supply disruptions and heightened market expectations, with a positive outlook for the copper market in the coming year [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an optimistic stance on copper prices and related stocks, citing strong demand, severe supply interruptions, and reduced smelting capacity in China as key factors [1] - The report highlights that Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum Co. are rated "overweight" due to strong profit growth and diversified assets in copper, gold, and cobalt, with target prices set at HKD 42 and HKD 22 respectively [1] Group 2 - The report identifies Zijin Mining as the preferred choice due to its relatively reasonable valuation [1] - Jiangxi Copper Co. is rated "underweight" due to ongoing weak processing and refining fees and slowing profit growth, with its target price raised from HKD 15 to HKD 28 [1]

(本文来自第一财经) 来源：第一财经 恒生指数高开0.17%，恒生科技指数涨0.21%。京东健康、紫金矿业、携程集团涨逾3%；新能源车概念 股再度走低，理想汽车、小鹏汽车、蔚来均下跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for non-ferrous metals continues to rise, driven by factors such as a weakening dollar, supply concerns, and tight supply in LME registered warehouses, leading to record high copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Non-ferrous metal stocks in the A-share market saw significant gains, with Xiyang Co. rising by 6% and Western Mining increasing by over 5% [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) rose by 1.3%, expanding its year-to-date increase to 82% [1] - The ETF has experienced a net inflow of 325 million yuan over the past five days [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - LME copper prices reached $11,540 per ton, the highest level since 2013, while Shanghai copper futures surpassed 90,000 yuan per ton, marking a historical peak [1] - The ongoing tight supply of refined copper globally, particularly in non-American regions, is contributing to upward price pressure [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metal ETF is the only one tracking the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index, with a current scale of 16.2 billion yuan, covering key sectors such as copper, aluminum, lithium, rare earths, and gold [1] - Key holdings in the ETF include leading companies in the non-ferrous sector such as Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and China Aluminum [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - With rising premiums for American copper and ongoing supply tightness in non-American regions, there is a bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The anticipated demand from the artificial intelligence sector is expected to provide a broad demand outlook for copper, suggesting potential upward price movement in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that copper prices have surpassed $11,000 per ton due to supply disruptions and heightened market tension, leading to an optimistic outlook for copper prices and related stocks in the coming year [1] Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Strong demand and severe supply disruptions, along with reduced smelting capacity in China, are driving the optimistic outlook for copper prices [1] - The expectation is that copper prices will continue to outperform the market next year [1] Group 2: Company Ratings and Price Targets - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum Co., citing strong profit growth and diversified assets in copper, gold, and cobalt [1] - The target price for Zijin Mining is set at HKD 42, while Luoyang Molybdenum's target price has been raised from HKD 13.5 to HKD 22 [1] - The firm prefers Zijin Mining due to its relatively reasonable valuation [1] Group 3: Other Company Ratings - Jiangxi Copper Co. has been given a "Underweight" rating due to ongoing weak processing and refining fees and slowing profit growth, with its target price increased from HKD 15 to HKD 28 [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong copper concept stocks collectively strengthened, with Minmetals Resources and Luoyang Molybdenum rising by 6% at one point [1] - Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and China Nonferrous Mining also saw increases of over 4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper sector in Hong Kong stocks is experiencing a strong rally, driven by record-high copper prices and positive outlooks from major financial institutions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong copper stocks, including Minmetals Resources and Luoyang Molybdenum, saw gains of up to 6%, while Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper rose over 4% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reached a historical high of $11,540 per ton, influenced by a weaker dollar, supply concerns, and tight supply in LME registered warehouses [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - JPMorgan remains optimistic about copper prices and copper stocks due to a structural supply-demand gap that is expected to support upward momentum [1] - The report anticipates zero growth in global mine supply by 2025, with a modest recovery of only 1.4% in 2026 [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) has decided to reduce copper mine capacity utilization by over 10% in 2026, increasing the downside risk for global electrolytic copper supply and tightening market conditions [1] - Although copper demand in China has softened due to high prices, downstream buyers have not ceased purchases but shifted to on-demand procurement [1] Group 4: Profit Forecasts - The global refined copper market is expected to face a shortfall of approximately 330,000 tons by 2026 [1] - Profit growth forecasts for Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are 30% and 17% respectively, primarily driven by increased copper production [1] - Jiangxi Copper's profit growth is projected at 10%, maintaining a relatively low allocation [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the materials sector, specifically aluminum, copper, and the battery chain, with a cautious stance on anti-involution sectors [1][2][3]. Core Insights Aluminum - Aluminum is preferred over copper due to underappreciated supply risks, particularly concerning smelting capacity in Indonesia and potential over-optimism regarding Middle Eastern expansion plans [2]. - Chinese smelter utilization is reported at over 98%, with China being a net importer of aluminum, primarily from Russia [2]. - Apparent consumption and inventory levels for aluminum in China are healthier compared to copper [2]. - Top picks in aluminum include Hongqiao and Chalco H/A [2]. Copper - Demand for copper is weakening as of Q4 2025, with inventory stockpiling observed in both the US and China [3]. - Price expectations for copper may be influenced by anticipated rate cuts into 2026, with long-term bullish sentiment due to potential supply deficits in the next 3-5 years [3]. - Tight global power supply is contributing to positive sentiment around copper [3]. - Zijin Mining's copper and lithium assets are considered undervalued, with a recommendation to maintain a Buy rating [3]. - Among pure copper plays, MMG is favored over CMOC for better valuation [3]. Battery Chain - The battery chain is viewed as more defensive, with a rally driven by strong expectations for energy storage systems (ESS) [4]. - Caution is advised before the Chinese New Year, as uncertainties in production pipelines are anticipated due to seasonality and weak EV demand [4]. - Key catalysts to watch include the production pipeline in March 2026, which could shift market sentiment towards companies with higher elasticity in the battery supply chain [4]. - Preferred companies in the battery sector include CATL [4]. Cement and Steel - Cement and steel sectors are the least preferred, with steel demand supported by exports but facing weaker anti-involution enforcement [5]. - Production cuts in these sectors are not expected to be stringent, leading to low cement prices and profits into the first half of 2026, with a potential recovery in the second half [5][6]. Additional Insights - The overall sector ranking is: Aluminum > Copper > Battery > Gold > Battery Materials > Coal > Cement > Steel [1]. - Cross-sector top picks include Hongqiao, Chalco H/A, Zijin Mining H/A, and CATL-A [1]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the investment outlook for various materials and sectors.