Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in credit growth, with November's new social financing at 2.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 159.7 billion yuan, and new loans of 390 billion yuan, down 190 billion yuan year-on-year. The M1 money supply grew by 4.9%, while M2 increased by 8.0%, both showing a decline in growth rates compared to the previous month [1][4]. - The report anticipates that while credit growth may not accelerate significantly, the central bank's commitment to a "moderately loose monetary policy" and support for banks' net interest margins will likely lead to improved revenue for the banking sector in 2026 [4][2]. - Retail demand remains under pressure, with a net decrease in household credit of nearly 206 billion yuan in November, reflecting ongoing deleveraging among consumers. The report suggests that a recovery in retail demand will depend on improvements in household income [4][2]. Summary by Sections Credit and Financing - In November, new loans totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan, with total new loans from January to November at 15.4 trillion yuan, down 1.7 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of RMB loans remained stable at 6.3% [4][1]. - The report notes that corporate loans saw a slight increase, with 270 billion yuan in new loans, while the issuance of corporate bonds and off-balance-sheet financing provided support against government debt and credit drag [4][7]. Monetary Supply - The M1 money supply grew by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 7.1% in the previous year, while M2 increased by 8.0%, showing a slight decline in growth rates [4][8]. - The report indicates that the decrease in deposits reflects a shift in non-bank deposits, which is closely related to the activity in the equity market [4][8]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism for 2026, expecting that the focus on corporate lending will continue, and improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) may enhance corporate profitability, positively impacting bank earnings [4][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the effectiveness of stimulus policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, which could lead to a more favorable environment for banks [4][2].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20251214 出口韧性累积蓄水池，联储鸽派降息助推资金回流 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [联系人： Table_Contacts] 李文洁 021-38003644 gfliwenjie@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-14 21:42:46 1 / 24 [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 银行 沪深300 | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | --- | --- | | | 021-38003646 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 林虎 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | | | 021-38003643 | | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, recommending specific companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and China Taiping, while also recommending New China Life Insurance [4][17]. Core Insights - The financial industry experienced a mixed performance, with the non-bank financial index rising by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points. The insurance sector showed a notable increase of 2.36%, while the banking sector declined by 1.77% [2][11]. - The central economic work conference emphasized a proactive fiscal policy, which is expected to benefit the insurance sector by increasing infrastructure asset supply and improving credit risk perceptions [14][15]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the brokerage sector, driven by regulatory changes that align public fund interests with long-term investor returns [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index rose by 0.81%, with the insurance sector outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points [2][11]. - The banking sector underperformed, with a decline of 1.77%, attributed to macroeconomic policy expectations [3][21]. 2. Insurance Sector Data Tracking - The insurance sector's premium income showed steady growth, with life insurance and property insurance premiums increasing by 9.6% and 4.0% year-on-year, respectively [17][26]. - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.84%, which is favorable for the insurance sector's investment strategies [31]. 3. Brokerage Sector Data Tracking - The brokerage sector's PB valuation stands at 1.37x, indicating potential for valuation recovery as earnings improve [19][42]. - Regulatory changes in public fund sales are expected to enhance the industry's focus on long-term investor interests [18][19]. 4. Banking Sector Data Tracking - The banking sector's PB valuation is at 0.54x, suggesting it remains undervalued [21][25]. - The central economic work conference's focus on domestic demand and flexible monetary policy is expected to support the banking sector's growth [22][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the total social financing (社融) in November increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, which is 159.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.02 trillion yuan [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as in October [5][8] - The report highlights a structural differentiation in financing, with trust loans, bond financing, and unendorsed bank acceptance bills showing significant year-on-year increases, while credit and government bonds experienced declines [5][9] Summary by Sections Social Financing Situation - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, surpassing expectations [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows an 8.5% year-on-year increase, consistent with October's growth rate [5][8] Credit Situation - The report notes that the credit supply is lower than in previous years, with November's new RMB loans amounting to 405.3 billion yuan, which is 116.3 billion yuan less than the same month last year [5][12] - The credit balance grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [12] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - The report indicates that M1 growth has slowed, while M2 and M1's differential has slightly expanded [19] - In November, RMB deposits increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, which is 760 billion yuan less than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in the investment logic for bank stocks from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," indicating that during periods of economic stagnation, high dividend yields from bank stocks will remain attractive [24] - Two main investment lines are recommended: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividend yields [24]

合计超2000亿元，六家国有大行陆续开启2025年中期分红的派发工作。 12月12日晚间，交通银行（601328）发布2025年第四次临时股东会决议公告。公告显示，交通银行当天 召开的股东会审议通过了该行董事会提交的《2025年半年度利润分配方案》，交通银行预计于2025年12 月25日和2026年1月28日，分别向A股股东和H股股东派发2025年中期现金股息。 此前，工商银行（601398）和农业银行（601288）均于12月8日晚间发布2025年半年度A股分红派息实 施公告，宣布此次A股股东的现金红利发放日为2025年12月15日。H股方面，两家银行的派息日均为 2026年1月26日。 中国银行（601988）和建设银行（601939）的2025年半年度A股分红派息实施公告发布于12月4日晚 间，两家银行的现金红利发放日为2025年12月11日。H股方面，中国银行的派息日为2026年1月23日， 建设银行的派息日为2026年1月26日。 目前，邮储银行（601658）的2025年度中期利润分配方案也已出炉，在等待19日召开的股东大会审议。 此外，邮储银行已明确方案审议通过后，A股派息日为2026年1月12 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that as of December 13, 26 A-share listed banks have disclosed their mid-term or quarterly dividend plans for 2025, surpassing the 24 banks that did so in the same period of 2024, with total dividends expected to exceed 260 billion yuan [1][3] - The banks disclosing dividend plans include 6 large state-owned banks, 6 joint-stock banks, and 14 small and medium-sized banks, with the six major state-owned banks expected to contribute over 200 billion yuan in cash dividends [3] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leads with an estimated dividend of approximately 50.4 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, and Bank of Communications [3] Group 2 - Joint-stock banks such as Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank are expected to have mid-term dividends exceeding 10 billion yuan, while China Everbright Bank and Minsheng Bank are projected to exceed 5 billion yuan [3] - Some small and medium-sized banks, like Shanghai Bank and Nanjing Bank, also show significant dividend amounts, with several banks like Industrial Bank and Ningbo Bank introducing mid-term dividend plans for the first time [3] - The increase in dividend frequency among commercial banks is a response to the new "National Nine Articles" aimed at promoting multiple dividends per year for listed companies, enhancing the connection between company profits and investor returns [3] Group 3 - More frequent dividends can directly enhance shareholder satisfaction, allowing investors to share in the banks' operational success in a timely manner [4] - Stable cash returns align well with the investment needs of long-term funds such as social security funds, pension funds, and insurance capital, helping to attract these funds for long-term holding [4] - The positioning of banks as dividend-oriented can create a virtuous cycle of attracting long-term capital, enhancing stock price stability, and reducing abnormal price fluctuations caused by short-term speculation [4]

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议提出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持"稳中 求进、提质增效"，并用"八个坚持"划出了明年经济工作的重点任务。 会后，多家金融机构集体表态对标对表明年经济工作"八个坚持"重点任务，并结合自身实际谋划好2026 年和"十五五"期间工作。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，多家金融机构强调，要突出主责主业，持续优化重点领域金融供给，包 括支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业、民生保障等方面。此外，多家机构表态坚持守牢底线，积极 稳妥化解重点领域风险。 聚焦主责主业，推动金融资源向重点领域和薄弱环节集聚 多家机构表态，要聚焦主责主业，做好金融"五篇大文章"，推动金融资源向经济社会发展的重大战略、 重点领域和薄弱环节集聚，提升服务实体经济质效。记者注意到，多家机构在科技创新领域重点着墨。 工商银行表示，要发挥主力军作用，持续发力促进高质量发展。围绕服务"四稳"，突出主责主业，提供 全面金融解决方案。积极融入强大国内市场，加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域， 精准服务"两重一薄"、制造业、区域协调、"双碳"引领、民生保障等，努力为人民群众多办实事。 农业银行提及 ...

为切实提升一线员工服务效能，创新服务场景，建行深圳市分行持续实践，深入基层、深入群众开展系 列创新活动，针对性地解决基层突出问题，为一线员工赋能。 聚焦创新手段如何培育发展新优势、新动能，创新如何赋能基层减负，建行深圳市分行近年来高度重视 产品创新与组织推动，始终践行群众路线从基层一线汲取创新智慧，同时多措并举构建创新体系，探索 特色化的创新孵化机制，全方位调动各项资源以助推创意转化为生产力。 01 沉下身子听需求，把创新源头扎于基层 创新不能靠"闭门造车"，要从一线来、到一线去。近年来，建行深圳市分行创新文化工作走群众路线， 通过平台搭建、机制保障、资源倾斜引导一线发声，同时让基层的"金点子" 有渠道、有支撑、有价 值。 建行深圳市分行通过"搭平台""提质效""深挖潜"三步法，推出多元特色创意活动，下沉基层深挖灵感。 分行打造全流程孵化赋能机制，配备导师、专家资源池等支持资源，深度分析、挖掘全行创意，实现采 集基层痛点、提出创意方案、开发需求、落地项目、跟踪分析五个环节的"一条龙"管理。并定期举 行"小点子·大价值"优秀创意评选，以激励转化成效优秀的小创意，鼓励"小点子"创"大价值"。 在基层发声反馈机制上 ...

记者丨张欣 编辑丨曾芳 12月12日，全国金融系统工作会议在京召开，中共中央政治局委员、中央金融委员会办公室主 任何立峰出席会议并讲话，为2026年金融系统工作划定核心方向。 同日，工行、建行、农行、中行等国有大行召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神， 结合全国金融系统工作会议要求，研究部署贯彻落实措施，明确2026年及 "十五五" 时期工作 重点，为助力经济高质量发展、服务金融强国建设提供金融支撑。 四家国有大行在贯彻落实会议精神过程中形成明确共识，均紧扣"防风险、强监管、促高质量 发展"工作主线，锚定三大核心方向推进2026年工作： 一是坚持党中央对金融工作的集中统一领导。 工行、农行、建行、中行均强调要深刻领悟 "两个确立" 的决定性意义，坚决做到"两个维 护"。其中，工行和农行还强调要增强 "四个意识"、坚定 "四个自信"。 工行和中行提出要牢固树立和践行正确政绩观、业绩观，持之以恒推进全面从严治党，抓好中 央巡视整改常态化长效化。农行、建行也明确要加强党的建设，树立正确业绩观，确保中央决 策部署落地见效。 二是聚焦主责主业，做深做实金融"五篇大文章"。 四家银行均提出要全面做好金融 "五篇大文 ...

12月12日，全国金融系统工作会议在京召开，中共中央政治局委员、中央金融委员会办公室主任何立峰出席会议并讲话，为 2026年金融系统工作划定核心方向。 同日，工行、建行、农行、中行等国有大行召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，结合全国金融系统工作会议要 求，研究部署贯彻落实措施，明确 2026 年及 "十五五" 时期工作重点，为助力经济高质量发展、服务金融强国建设提供金融支 撑。 工行、农行、建行、中行均强调要深刻领悟 "两个确立" 的决定性意义，坚决做到"两个维护"。其中，工行和农行还强调要增强 "四个意识"、坚定 "四个自信"。 工行和中行提出要牢固树立和践行正确政绩观、业绩观，持之以恒推进全面从严治党，抓好中央巡视整改常态化长效化。农 行、建行也明确要加强党的建设，树立正确业绩观，确保中央决策部署落地见效。 二是聚焦主责主业，做深做实金融"五篇大文章"。 四家银行均提出要全面做好金融 "五篇大文章"，加大对重点领域的金融支持。其中，工行提出要突出主责主业，加力支持扩大 内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，精准服务"两重一薄"、制造业、区域协调、"双碳"引领、民生保障等。 四大行同向发力，明年瞄 ...