Core Viewpoint - UBS initiates coverage on Haitian Flavor Industry (603288) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 40, reflecting a projected P/E ratio of 31x and 29x for the next two years [1] Company Summary - Haitian is considered the most competitive premium enterprise in the seasoning industry, with potential for long-term stable growth [1] - From 2009 to 2019, the company benefited from rapid growth in the catering industry and consumption upgrades, achieving a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% in revenue and 22% in net profit [1] - The growth rate is expected to slow down to 6% in revenue and 3% in net profit from 2019 to 2024 [1] - Starting in 2024, the company is anticipated to gradually emerge from a low point, demonstrating resilience during industry fluctuations [1] - The company is expected to solidify its market position through continuous product optimization and channel refinement [1] - For the period of 2024-2027, the company is projected to achieve a CAGR of 7% in revenue and 10% in net profit [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS initiates coverage on Haitian Flavor Industry (03288) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 40, implying a forecasted P/E ratio of 31x and 29x for the next two years [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Haitian Flavor has demonstrated strong revenue and net profit growth rates of 16% and 22% respectively from 2009 to 2019, benefiting from rapid growth in the restaurant industry and consumption upgrades [1] - The growth rate is expected to slow down to 6% for revenue and 3% for net profit from 2019 to 2024 [1] - The company is anticipated to gradually recover from a low point starting in 2024, showcasing its resilience during industry fluctuations [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - UBS forecasts that Haitian Flavor will solidify its market position and achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% for revenue and 10% for net profit from 2024 to 2027 [1] - The company is focusing on continuous product optimization and channel refinement to maintain its leading position in the industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, with notable decreases in prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while prices for most consumer goods remain stable [4][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the discount rates for liquid milk products, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6][18]. - Overall, the report suggests that the impact of funds is greater, advising attention to low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks in the consumer staples sector [8]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1790 and 1770 yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 55 and 70 yuan from the previous month [4][37]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 895 yuan, down 25 yuan from last month [4][37]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price increased by 10 yuan to 850 yuan [4][37]. Consumer Goods Pricing - The average discount rate for liquid milk products decreased from 74.8% to 69.4% since the end of August [6][21]. - Discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, instant foods, and beer remained stable, with slight variations in average and median values [19][35]. - The report notes that the discount rate for infant formula products also showed a minor decrease from 89.5% to 88.7% [21][35]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks due to the greater impact of funds on the market [8].

Core Insights - The seasoning and fermentation sector saw a slight increase of 0.19% on September 30, with ST Jiajia leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Stock Performance - ST Jiajia (002650) closed at 6.44, with a rise of 5.06% and a trading volume of 57,800 shares, amounting to 37.17 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include: - Rihou Co. (603755) at 32.23, up 1.67% [1] - Qianhe Flavor (603027) at 11.43, up 0.97% [1] - Hengshun Vinegar (600305) at 7.92, up 0.89% [1] - Haitian Flavor (603288) at 38.96, up 0.21%, with a trading volume of 122,000 shares and a transaction value of 475 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The seasoning and fermentation sector experienced a net outflow of 124 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 105 million yuan [2] - Key individual stock capital flows include: - Qianhe Flavor (603027) with a net inflow of 12.29 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - ST Jiajia (002650) with a net inflow of 7.45 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Jialong Co. (002495) with a net inflow of 2.86 million yuan from institutional investors [2]

Core Insights - The seasoning and fermentation sector experienced a slight decline of 0.01% on September 29, with Anji Food leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Market Performance - Notable gainers in the seasoning and fermentation sector included: - Richen Co., Ltd. (603755) with a closing price of 31.70, up 3.73% [1] - Baoli Food (603170) at 14.43, up 1.62% [1] - Jialong Co., Ltd. (002495) at 2.63, up 1.15% [1] - Major decliners included: - Anji Food (603696) at 11.67, down 2.83% [2] - ST Jiajia (002650) at 6.13, down 1.76% [2] - Lianhua Holdings (600186) at 5.80, down 1.19% [2] Capital Flow - The seasoning and fermentation sector saw a net outflow of 170 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 139 million yuan [2] - The sector's capital flow details include: - Jieling Pickles (002507) with a net outflow of 15.02 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Tianwei Food (603317) with a net inflow of 0.5965 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - ST Jiajia (002650) experienced a significant net outflow of 9.09 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Haitan Flavor Industry has demonstrated strong resilience and growth in the competitive condiment market, achieving significant revenue and profit increases in the first half of 2025, marking its successful entry into the Hong Kong stock market [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 15.23 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.59% - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.35% [1]. Market Position - Haitan Flavor Industry has maintained its position as China's largest condiment company for 28 consecutive years, with its soy sauce and oyster sauce sales leading the market [3]. - The company’s soy sauce and oyster sauce also rank first globally, showcasing its strong competitive edge in international markets [3]. Product Innovation - The company has adopted a "full-scene cooking solution" strategy, enhancing its core product categories while launching new products like Haitan cold dressing and Haitan spicy fresh sauce to meet diverse consumer needs [3]. - In the vinegar segment, Haitan has introduced a dual product strategy of "traditional vinegar + specialty vinegar," expanding its product line with various types of rice vinegar and organic vinegar [5]. - In the cooking wine category, the company has developed a range of products, including Haitan ancient road cooking wine, to strengthen its market presence [5]. Consumer Engagement - Haitan Flavor Industry's consumer reach has grown to 754 million, an increase of 21.6 million from the previous year, and it has been recognized as one of China's top ten consumer brands for 11 consecutive years [6]. - The company’s soy sauce, oyster sauce, and vinegar have consistently ranked at the top of their respective markets, reflecting its strong brand influence [6]. Supply Chain Management - The company has enhanced its supply chain management by focusing on quality, efficiency, and cost, leveraging its scale advantages [6]. - Haitan's factory was recognized as a "lighthouse factory" by the World Economic Forum, highlighting its commitment to high-quality and cost-effective production [6]. - The company is also leading the industry in green development by initiating the "Carbon Road Green Chain Alliance" to promote a sustainable supply chain [6]. Brand Development - Haitan has successfully transitioned from a traditional brand to a modern brand through innovative marketing strategies, including unique promotional campaigns and educational initiatives [7]. - The company has engaged in various social responsibility projects, such as the "Little Powder Cap" initiative, to support special groups and enhance brand trust [7]. - Haitan's marketing efforts have resulted in nearly 5 billion brand exposures, solidifying its image as a representative of authentic Chinese flavors [7].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant rally on September 29, with the Food ETF (515710) reaching an intraday price increase of up to 1.3% before settling at a 0.98% gain [1][3] - Key stocks in the sector showed strong performance, with Yangyuan Beverage soaring over 7%, and major liquor brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongji rising over 3% [1][3] - The Food ETF (515710) has seen substantial net inflows, with a total of 55.71 million yuan in net subscriptions over the last five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 2 - Sales of popular gift items such as liquor and mooncakes surged ahead of the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with liquor sales on Meituan increasing approximately eightfold year-on-year [3][4] - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is considered low, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.21, placing it in the lower 5.88% percentile over the past decade, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [3][4] - Analysts predict a recovery in the liquor sector due to government policies promoting high-quality development, with expectations for Maotai's prices to rebound as market conditions improve [4][5] Group 3 - The food and beverage industry is witnessing significant policy catalysts, such as the upcoming public consultation on the national standards for prepared food safety, which may benefit leading brands [4][5] - The Food ETF (515710) is strategically positioned, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in other beverage and food segments [5] - Investors can also access core assets in the food and beverage sector through the Food ETF linked funds [5]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage ETF Tianhong (159736) has shown significant market activity, with a notable inflow of funds and rising stock prices among key components, indicating a positive trend in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Tianhong food and beverage ETF (159736) experienced a slight decline of 0.28% as of the latest report, with a premium rate of 0.04% and frequent premium trading observed [1]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of nearly 170 million yuan over the past nine trading days, with a total circulation of 7.62 billion shares, reaching a historical high [2]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Key component stocks such as Yangyuan Beverage, Gujing Gongjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others have shown price increases, with Yangyuan Beverage rising over 4% [2]. - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, which includes major stocks from the beverage, packaged food, and meat industries, featuring top holdings like Kweichow Moutai, Yili, and Wuliangye [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - Reports indicate a significant increase in the prices of premium liquor, with notable price hikes for products like Feitian Moutai and other well-known brands over a short period [3]. - The liquor market is experiencing a surge in demand, particularly in the mid-range price segment (50-200 yuan), with increased sales reported across various regions [3]. - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to boost tourism and consumer spending, with a projected 130% increase in travel compared to the previous year, indicating a potential for strong sales in the food and beverage sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - Hai Tian Flavoring Industry recently announced the appointment of Guan Jianghua as the new legal representative of the company, following a decision made during the sixth board of directors' ninth meeting [1] Group 1: Management Changes - Guan Jianghua, born in January 1974, holds a bachelor's degree and is a senior economist [1] - He joined the company in 1998 and has held various positions including manager of the sales department, vice president of marketing, general manager of operations, assistant president, and vice president [1] - The change in legal representation has not yet completed the industrial and commercial registration process, and the registration still shows Cheng Xue as the legal representative [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [53]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the focus on liquor sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, suggesting that consumer demand remains under pressure, particularly for high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai [4][48]. - The report indicates a structural opportunity in mass-market products, with varying performance across different sub-sectors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring demand and cost indicators in the beer sector and consumption recovery in the condiment sector [4][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From September 12 to September 25, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index fell by 5.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 6.76 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index during this period, with the baking sector experiencing the largest decline at -7.80% [13][14]. - Approximately 7% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Qianwei Yangchu (+21.90%) and Yangyuan Beverage (+16.80%) [15] . Industry Important Data Tracking Liquor Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of Feitian Moutai decreased to 1,765 RMB per bottle, while the price of Guojiao 1573 increased to 840 RMB per bottle [22]. Condiment Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of soybean meal was 2,988 RMB per ton, down 72 RMB from September 11, while the price of white sugar was 5,780 RMB per ton, down 110 RMB [25]. Beer Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the average price of barley was 2,230 RMB per ton, while the price of aluminum ingots was 20,710 RMB per ton, down 100 RMB [30]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.03 RMB per kilogram as of September 19, 2025 [37]. Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork was 19.44 RMB per kilogram as of September 25, 2025, down 0.49 RMB from September 11 [39]. Industry News - The report notes a slight decline in the national liquor price index in early September 2025, indicating ongoing market adjustments [41]. - The number of registered beer-related enterprises increased by 10.83% year-on-year from January to August 2025, reflecting a growing market [42]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquor sales during the upcoming holidays and suggests focusing on high-certainty liquor brands and mass-market products that benefit from policy catalysts [48].