Group 1 - The real estate and building materials sectors are experiencing repeated activity, with companies such as Jingtou Development and Hanjian Heshan achieving three consecutive trading limits [1] - Other companies including Tubao, Jianlang Hardware, Sankeshu, Chengtou Holdings, Jintou Chengkai, and China Wuyi are also seeing upward trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry ETF managed by E Fund has shown positive performance, with significant inflows and growth in both scale and shares, reflecting strong investor interest in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of February 4, 2026, the China Petroleum Industry Index (H11057) increased by 0.41%, with key stocks like Sinopec rising by 3.17% and Wanhua Chemical by 3.09% [1]. - Over the past two weeks, the E Fund chemical industry ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.55%, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Volume - The E Fund chemical industry ETF had a turnover rate of 3.05% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 48.77 million yuan [1]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week reached 160 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Fund Size and Shares - The latest size of the E Fund chemical industry ETF reached 1.595 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [1]. - The total shares of the ETF have also reached 1.466 billion, which is a one-year high [1]. Group 4: Net Inflows - The E Fund chemical industry ETF has seen continuous net inflows for 13 days, with the highest single-day net inflow reaching 391 million yuan, totaling 1.371 billion yuan in net inflows [1]. - The average daily net inflow stands at 105 million yuan [1]. Group 5: Top Holdings - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum Industry Index account for 55.71% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Sinopec [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Sankeshu (三棵树), announced that as of February 1, 2026, the total external guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries amount to RMB 2,913.56 million, which represents 108.47% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1] Group 1 - The external guarantee balance includes RMB 2,839.82 million provided to subsidiaries, accounting for 105.73% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1] - The company has confirmed that there are no overdue guarantees [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company announced that the total amount of guarantees provided to subsidiaries will not exceed RMB 9.5 billion, which accounts for 353.69% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1] Group 1: Guarantees to Subsidiaries - The total guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries to subsidiaries will not exceed RMB 9.5 billion [1] - This amount represents 353.69% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1] Group 2: External Guarantees - The total external guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries will not exceed RMB 350 million [1] - This figure accounts for 13.03% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1] Group 3: Current Guarantee Balances - As of February 1, 2026, the balance of external guarantees is approximately RMB 2.914 billion, which is 108.47% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1] - Among this, the guarantees to subsidiaries amount to approximately RMB 2.84 billion, representing 105.73% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1]

证券代码：603737 证券简称：三棵树 公告编号：2026-006 三棵树涂料股份有限公司 关于为子公司提供担保的公告 | 对外担保逾期的累计金额（万元） | 0 | | --- | --- | | 截至本公告日上市公司及其控股 | | | 子公司对外担保总额（万元） 年年度股东大会审 | 985,000 | | （经公司 2024 | | | 议通过的对外担保总额） | | | 对外担保总额占上市公司最近一 期经审计净资产的比例（%） | 366.72 | | 特别风险提示 | √担保金额（含本次）超过上市公司最近一期经审计净资产 50% | | | √对外担保总额（含本次）超过上市公司最近一期经审计净资 | | 产 | 100% | | | √本次对资产负债率超过 70%的单位提供担保 | 一、担保情况概述 （一） 担保的基本情况 重要内容提示： 担保对象及基本情况 | | 本次担 | 实际为其提 供的担保余 | 是否在前 | 本次担保 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 被担保人名称 | 保金额 | | 期预计额 | 是否有反 | | | （万元） | 额（不含本次 ...

Group 1 - The company signed a maximum principal guarantee contract with China Construction Bank on February 2, 2026 [1] - The contract provides a joint liability guarantee for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hebei Sankeshu Coating Co., Ltd [1] - The maximum debt limit under the guarantee is set at RMB 200 million [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The report anticipates significant growth in revenue and profit for fiberglass in Q4 2025, while traditional building materials face performance pressure [1] - The overall outlook for the cement industry indicates continued price and profit stabilization, with domestic pressures expected to persist [4][7] - The glass industry is projected to experience ongoing revenue and profit pressure, particularly in the float glass segment due to weak downstream demand [14][20] - The fiberglass sector is expected to see robust growth driven by increased demand for raw yarn and high-end fabrics [28] Summary by Sections Cement - Q4 2025 is expected to see domestic cement performance under pressure, while overseas markets may perform better. The average national cement price is projected at 357 RMB per ton, down 16% year-on-year [7] - The report notes that the cement industry is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with a year-on-year production decline of 7% from January to November 2025 [7] - Non-operating projects may impact profits, with companies accelerating capacity replacement and asset disposals [4][7] Glass - The float glass industry is expected to remain under pressure, with high inventory levels and ongoing losses. The average price for 5mm float glass is projected at 62 RMB per box in Q4 2025, down 17% year-on-year [14] - The photovoltaic glass segment is also expected to face significant revenue and profit pressure due to weak domestic installation demand, with a projected average price of 12.3 RMB per square meter in Q4 2025 [20] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is projected to see continued high growth in revenue and profit, with domestic net demand reaching 5.48 million tons, a 19% year-on-year increase [28] - The average price for mainstream products is expected to be 3,603 RMB per ton in 2025, with a slight decrease in Q4 [28] - High-end electronic fabric prices are expected to rise, benefiting companies with a first-mover advantage [28] Renovation Materials - The renovation materials sector is expected to face continued pressure, with a year-on-year decline in housing starts, completions, and sales area [4] - Companies are exploring new business channels to maintain resilience in performance [4]

Market Overview - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a decline of 4.35% on February 2, with Gu Di Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Huali Co., Ltd. (603038) with a closing price of 17.80, up 3.61% [1] - Yangzi New Materials (002652) at 4.01, up 1.78% [1] - Significant decliners included: - Gu Di Technology (002694) at 3.33, down 10.00% [2] - Fangda Group (000055) at 3.84, down 9.65% [2] - Luyang Energy-Saving (002088) at 12.25, down 7.76% [2] Trading Volume and Value - Huali Co., Ltd. had a trading volume of 151,500 shares and a transaction value of 274 million yuan [1] - Gu Di Technology recorded a trading volume of 93,800 shares with a transaction value of 31.23 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The renovation and building materials sector saw a net outflow of 380 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 310 million yuan [2] - The sector's overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Gu Di Technology had a net inflow of 3.05 million yuan from institutional investors but a net outflow of 3.73 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Huali Co., Ltd. experienced a net inflow of 3.01 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 13.28 million yuan [3]

2026 年 02 月 02 日 三棵树(603737.SH) 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1 公司快报 | | 证券研究报告 | | --- | --- | | | 涂料油墨颜料 | | 投资评级 | 买入-A | | | 维持评级 | | 12 个月目标价 | 66.6 元 | | 股价 (2026-01-30) | 56.86 元 | | 交易数据 | | | 总市值(百万元) | 41,952.30 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 41,952.30 | | 总股本(百万股) | 737.82 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 737.82 | 2025 年归母净利润同比高增，高端零 售战略转型卓有成效 事件：公司发布 2025 年业绩预增公告，预计 2025 年归母净利 润 7.6 亿元-9.6 亿元，同比增加 128.96%-189.21%；预计 2025 年 扣非归母净利润 5.5 亿元-7.5 亿元之间，同比增加 273.57%- 409.42%。 2025 年归母净利润同比高增，2026 年盈利能力改善有望持续。 2025 年公司归母净利润预计 7.6 亿元- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Views - The real estate market in first-tier cities has shown strong performance, particularly in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [1][2] - Government debt issuance has significantly increased, with a total of 863.35 billion yuan in January 2026, reflecting a 204.3% month-on-month increase and a 54.8% year-on-year increase, which may alleviate fiscal pressure and accelerate municipal projects [1] - The glass manufacturing sector is approaching a supply-demand balance due to accelerated cold repairs, while photovoltaic glass companies are reducing production to ease supply tensions [1][3] - The cement industry is experiencing a demand bottoming process, with increased off-peak production efforts and a focus on regional demand recovery, particularly in areas like Tibet and Xinjiang [1][2] - The demand for fiberglass remains robust, driven by growth in wind energy and high-end applications, indicating structural investment opportunities [1][6] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of January 30, 2026, the national cement price index is 342.94 yuan/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.278 million tons, a decrease of 4.27% [2][18] - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns is 45.19%, up 2.77 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight recovery in production [2][18] - The market is currently undergoing structural adjustments, with infrastructure remaining the main support but showing weak growth [2][18] Glass Industry Tracking - As of January 29, 2026, the average price of float glass is 1144.80 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.53% [3][31] - Inventory levels have decreased, with a total of 49.27 million weight boxes, down 500,000 from the previous week [3][31] - Demand is expected to slow down as many small processing plants will shut down for the holiday, leading to a quieter market [3][31] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali roving remains stable, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases, while supply remains unchanged [6] - The average price of electronic yarn is stable, with expectations of price increases in high-end products due to ongoing demand [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber price remains stable, with a weekly production of 2,369 tons and an operating rate of 76.28% [7] - The industry continues to face profitability challenges, with an average production cost of 113,300 yuan/ton and a negative gross margin [7] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is benefiting from the recovery in second-hand housing and renovation demand, with significant potential for market share growth [1][6]