请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 l 证券研究报告 l 行业研究丨深度报告丨建材 掘金存量, 另辟成长 建材行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 随着存量需求登场，消费建材需求发生质变，有望驱动行业需求回到历史前高水平，同时优化 下游需求结构，使得建材的消费品特征日趋显著，首推商业模式最优且稀缺成长的三棵树。非 洲是产能出海的沃土，建材先行，非洲本土龙头的价值被低估，看好科达制造、华新水泥、西 部水泥。国产替代链链条看好特种玻纤、工业涂料等，特种玻纤龙头中材科技受益 AI 算力需求 增长，工业涂料龙头麦加芯彩的弹性来自船舶涂料的从 0 到 1。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 李金宝 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490516040002 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 李浩 董超 SAC：S0490520080026 SAC：S0490523030002 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 44 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is expected to benefit from the improvement in infrastructure and real estate demand, with a long-term view of continuous optimization in supply structure. Recommended companies include Shengfeng Cement, Tapai Group, Huaxin Cement, Western Cement, and Tibet Tianlu [20][21] - The report highlights a significant drop in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.92% [2][15] - The cement price has recently hit a low, with the average price in East China down by 17 CNY/ton year-on-year, indicating potential for price rebound due to the implementation of price coordination mechanisms [3][14] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.54%, while the construction materials sector (CITIC) increased by 3.63%. Notable stock performances include Yamaton (+34.9%), Zhongcai Technology (+20.7%), and Kaisheng New Energy (+19.6%) [12][14] Recent Tracking of Key Sub-sectors - Cement: The national cement market price fell by 1.3% week-on-week, with average shipment rates around 42% due to weak demand [17] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market saw a general decline in new orders, with prices for 2.0mm coated panels down by 2.27% [18] - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali yarn remains stable, with prices holding steady at around 3669 CNY/ton [19] Long-term Value of Traditional Building Materials - The report emphasizes that traditional building materials are nearing a cyclical bottom, while new materials like carbon fiber are expected to see sustained growth due to high downstream demand and domestic substitution opportunities [20][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that SanKeTree Co., Ltd. is expected to report significant profit growth for the first half of 2025, driven by strategic adjustments and cost management [2][3][5] Group 2 - As of July 4, 2025, SanKeTree's stock closed at 37.86 yuan, up 1.77%, with a turnover rate of 0.48% and a trading volume of 35,600 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 133 million yuan [1] - On July 4, 2025, the fund flow for SanKeTree showed a net outflow of 6.39 million yuan from main funds, a net inflow of 7.38 million yuan from retail funds, and a net outflow of 995,300 yuan from individual investors [1][5] - SanKeTree forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between 380 million yuan and 460 million yuan, with a non-recurring profit of 230 million yuan to 310 million yuan [2][5] - The company anticipates a year-on-year increase in net profit of 80.94% to 119.04%, and a non-recurring profit increase of 190.04% to 290.92% compared to the same period last year [3][5]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen an acceleration in the disclosure of semi-annual performance forecasts, with 54 companies announcing their forecasts as of July 6, 2025, indicating a slight increase of 11 companies, 3 companies turning losses into profits, 4 companies maintaining profits, and 21 companies expecting profit growth [1][4] - Companies like Taotao Automotive (301345) have expressed confidence in continued growth for the second half of the year, expecting a net profit of 310 million to 360 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.34% to 97.81% [2][4] - Jingbeifang (002987) experienced significant stock price fluctuations after intensive institutional research, with a cumulative price deviation exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days [2][4] Group 2 - Chipong Micro (芯朋微) expects a revenue of approximately 630 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of about 176 million yuan or 38% year-on-year, with a net profit forecast of around 90 million yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 104% [4] - Daotong Technology (道通科技) anticipates a net profit of 460 million to 490 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19% to 26.76% [4] - Changchuan Technology (长川科技) projects a net profit of 360 million to 420 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 67.54% to 95.46% due to rapid growth in the integrated circuit industry and strong customer demand [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, particularly highlighting the recovery potential in the consumption building materials sector and the cement industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The building materials industry has seen a resurgence in attention since July 1, driven by expectations of supply-side improvements and demand upgrades, particularly in the cement and glass sectors [2][4]. - The cement industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at limiting overproduction, while the glass industry is experiencing changes due to reductions in production capacity and demand fluctuations [2][9]. - The waterproofing sector has seen unprecedented price increases among leading companies, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [3][5]. - AI demand is reshaping market expectations, particularly in the low dielectric cloth segment, which is expected to see continued product premium during the upgrade process [3][26]. Summary by Sections Consumption Building Materials - The logic of improving market dynamics is beginning to materialize, with price communication among companies becoming more favorable [5]. - The waterproofing industry has seen a significant price increase among leading firms, indicating a recovery in profitability [5][6]. - The report anticipates that profitability recovery will outpace revenue growth in 2025, driven by cost reductions and stabilized pricing [5]. Cement - The cement industry is experiencing a "reverse involution" with policies aimed at limiting overproduction, which is expected to stabilize prices [9][11]. - Demand remains weak, with a notable decline in production and sales, but the industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments take effect [11][12]. - The report likens the supply-demand dynamics in the cement industry to a "tortoise and hare" race, where supply adjustments may lead to improved profitability despite weak demand [12][14]. Glass - The float glass market is currently facing pressure with prices remaining low and demand weak, leading to cash flow challenges for many companies [17][24]. - The report highlights that the photovoltaic glass sector is entering a cash loss zone, prompting accelerated cold repairs among manufacturers [24][25]. - The automotive glass segment is expected to maintain stable profitability due to product structure improvements and cost optimization [21][22]. Fiberglass - The demand for low dielectric cloth is expected to increase due to the AI industry's growth, with companies positioned well for product upgrades [26][27]. - The report notes that mainstream electronic cloth products are performing steadily, with potential price increases anticipated in the future [27][28]. Carbon Fiber - The wind power sector is seeing a recovery in demand, which is expected to lead to improved profitability in Q2 [32].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The construction materials industry has seen a significant increase in attention since July 1, driven by unexpected changes on the supply side and a focus on demand upgrades for the end of 2024 [1][2] - The cement industry is experiencing a "de-involution" policy expectation, with a focus on limiting overproduction and improving regulatory oversight [2][10] - The demand side is shifting, with AI-related demand expected to accelerate, positively impacting various segments of the industry [3][27] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is witnessing a rare price increase in the waterproofing industry, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4][5] - Companies like Sanke Tree and Dongfang Yuhong are showing improved profitability through cost reduction and price increases, validating earlier industry reports [4][5] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that profitability recovery will outpace revenue growth, with expectations of reduced price competition and improved cost management [4][5] Group 3: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments take effect, with a focus on limiting production and improving cash flow [10][12] - Major companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are expected to maintain strong cash flow and dividend policies, indicating long-term investment value [11][16][17] - The industry's overall profitability is anticipated to improve as demand stabilizes and production constraints are implemented [12][15] Group 4: Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of cash losses for many companies [19][20] - Companies like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group are facing challenges but are expected to maintain stable profitability in their automotive glass segments [21][22] - The photovoltaic glass sector is entering a cash loss phase, prompting accelerated cold repairs and production adjustments [25][26] Group 5: Fiber Industry - The fiberglass sector is seeing stable demand for mainstream electronic yarns, with a focus on high-end products like low-dielectric cloth [27][28] - Companies like China Jushi are expanding production capacity overseas to mitigate trade risks and maintain growth [29][30] - The carbon fiber market is showing signs of recovery in wind power demand, with expectations of improved profitability in Q2 [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The ongoing "anti-involution" initiative is expected to improve the fundamentals of the construction materials industry, with a focus on enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [3] - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including SanKeTree, Dongfang Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, and Jianlang Hardware, as well as beneficiaries like Beixin Building Materials [3] - The cement sector is projected to benefit from energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives, with a target to control cement clinker capacity to around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025 [3] Market Performance - The construction materials index increased by 3.96% in the week from June 30 to July 4, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.42 percentage points [4][13] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 8.01%, while the construction materials index only increased by 2.47%, indicating a lag of 5.55 percentage points [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index has risen by 16.06%, compared to an 11.69% increase in the construction materials index, resulting in a 4.38 percentage point underperformance [4][13] Cement Sector - As of July 4, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement was 293.11 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.97% decrease from the previous period [6][24] - The clinker inventory ratio nationwide was 68.18%, down by 1.18 percentage points [6][25] - Regional price variations were noted, with the Northeast region remaining stable, while other regions like North China and Southwest saw declines of 4.13% and 6.58%, respectively [6][24] Glass Sector - The average price of float glass was 1201.35 RMB/ton as of July 4, 2025, showing a slight increase of 0.07% [6][74] - The inventory of float glass decreased by 1.17%, with a total of 58.31 million weight boxes reported [6][76] - The price of photovoltaic glass fell by 3.88%, with an average price of 116.02 RMB/weight box [6][81] Fiberglass Sector - The price of non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3400 to 4100 RMB/ton, with variations based on specific product types [6] - The fiberglass sector is expected to benefit from favorable tariffs for companies with overseas production bases [3] Consumer Building Materials - The report indicates that raw material prices for consumer building materials have remained relatively stable with slight fluctuations [6][5]

业绩简评 2025 年 7 月 4 日，公司披露 2025 年半年度业绩预增公告，上半年 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 3.8-4.6 亿元，同比增加 80.94%-119.04%，实现扣非后归母净利润 2.3-3.1 亿元，同比增 加 190.04%-290.92%；上半年归母净利润预告中枢在 4.2 亿元， 推测单 Q2 归母净利润中枢值 3.15 亿元，上半年及单 Q2 的利润总 额为历史新高表现，净利率显著修复。 经营分析 成长逻辑不变：地产景气向下阶段，公司零售业务持续逆势增长， 家装墙面漆 2022-2024 年的收入增速分别为 18.2%、2.6%、12.8%， 25Q1 收入增速维持 8.0%。马上住、仿石漆、艺术漆新招客户均增 长显著，C 端多模块形成高利润、高增长态势，快速复制。各增量 细分市场竞争格局友好，行业需求存量阶段、公司去地产化和新消 费的成长逻辑不变。 毛利率继续修复：根据业绩预告，结合市场环境及需求变化，公司 积极调整和优化产品结构，毛利率同比保持增长。从最近两个财报 季度来看，24Q4 毛利率 32.5%，同比+0.44pct，环比+3.82pct，开 始企稳回升，25Q ...

截至2025年7月4日收盘，三棵树（603737）报收于37.86元，较上周的36.94元上涨2.49%。本周，三棵 树7月4日盘中最高价报37.88元。7月2日盘中最低价报35.89元。三棵树当前最新总市值279.34亿元，在 装修建材板块市值排名2/35，在两市A股市值排名544/5149。 本周关注点 公司公告汇总 三棵树涂料股份有限公司发布了2025年半年度业绩预增公告。公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公 司股东的净利润在人民币38,000万元到46,000万元之间，与上年同期相比，将增加人民币16,999万元到 24,999万元，同比增加80.94%到119.04%。预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性 损益的净利润在人民币23,000万元到31,000万元之间，与上年同期相比，将增加人民币15,070万元到 23,070万元，同比增加190.04%到290.92%。业绩预增的主要原因包括公司积极调整和优化产品结构，零 售业务规模及整体毛利率较上年同期增长；通过精准施策强化费用管控，优化开支结构并提升资金使用 效能，有效降低各项成本费用支出；相关需计提的减值准备较上年同期有 ...

Core Insights - The antibacterial paint market in China is experiencing rapid growth due to increasing health awareness and demand for hygiene products, with the market size projected to reach approximately 10.98 billion yuan in 2024 and 15.368 billion yuan by 2027 [1][16] - The industry is benefiting from various national policies such as new infrastructure projects, urbanization, and rural revitalization, which are expected to drive demand for coatings [1][16] - Antibacterial coatings not only improve indoor air quality and reduce infection risks but also enhance the durability of painted surfaces, making them popular in medical institutions, homes, and public spaces [1][16] Antibacterial Coatings Industry Overview - Antibacterial coatings are designed to prevent the growth of bacteria, fungi, and algae, offering superior disinfection effects compared to regular paints [3][5] - The market is segmented into natural, organic, and inorganic antibacterial coatings, each with distinct properties and applications [3] Industry Development History - The antibacterial industry in China began in the 1980s and gained momentum in the late 1990s, with significant contributions from companies like Nippon Paint [8] - The establishment of standards for antibacterial coatings by the China Coatings Industry Association in 2020 has further propelled the industry's growth [8] Industry Chain - The upstream of the antibacterial coatings industry includes raw materials such as antibacterial agents, film-forming agents, and solvents, while the downstream applications span construction, food processing, healthcare, and more [10][12] Market Trends - The antibacterial agent market is projected to reach approximately 13.01 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.71%, driven by expanding application scenarios and technological innovations [12] - The construction industry is a key application area for antibacterial coatings, with the total output value of the construction industry in China expected to grow from 21.39 trillion yuan in 2017 to 32.65 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.23% [13] Competitive Landscape - Leading international companies in the antibacterial coatings market include AkzoNobel, PPG Industries, Sherwin-Williams, and BASF, while domestic leaders include companies like Three Trees, Nippon Paint China, and Carpoly [18][20] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a focus on technological innovation and the development of high-end applications in healthcare and home appliances [18] Future Development Trends - The industry is expected to focus on the development of composite antibacterial coatings that optimize the synergistic effects of different antibacterial agents [25] - The application of inorganic nano antibacterial materials is anticipated to deepen, with a focus on improving dispersion and stability in coatings [26][27] - Research into the mechanisms of antibacterial agents will support the development of targeted products, alongside the establishment of comprehensive testing methods and industry standards [28]