2025 年 03 月 16 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 仲逸涵 S0350123070022 zhongyh@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 欧美 MDI 厂商发布涨价函，关注铬盐在军工领 域的应用 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/03/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | 4.1% | 0.5% | 9.7% | | 沪深 300 | 1.7% | 1.9% | 12.5% | 相关报告 《基础化工行业周报：振华股份铬盐价格上涨，中 策橡胶 IPO 过会（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯 骏》——2025-02-16 《基础化工行业周报：轮胎原材料价格指数走低， 赛轮轮胎拟扩建柬埔寨工厂（推荐）*基础化工*李 永磊，董伯骏》——2025-01-12 《基 ...

证券代码：603737 证券简称：三棵树 公告编号：2025-007 三棵树涂料股份有限公司 关于公司实际控制人、控股股东部分股份 解除质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 截至本公告披露日，三棵树涂料股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）实际控 制人、控股股东洪杰先生持有公司股份35,318.1163万股，占公司总股本的67.02%； 本次解除质押 2,457 万股后，洪杰先生累计质押公司股份 7,973.8611 万股，占其 所持公司股份的 22.58%。 公司于 2025 年 2 月 28 日接到洪杰先生的通知，洪杰先生将其质押给海通证 券股份有限公司的 2,457 万股无限售条件流通股办理了股份解除质押手续，现将 相关情况公告如下： | 股东名称 | | | 洪杰 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 本次解除质押股份 | | 2,457 万股 | | | 占其所持股份比例 | | 6.96% | | | 占公司总股本比例 | | 4.66% | | | 解除质押时 ...

证券代码：603737 证券简称：三棵树 公告编号：2025-006 三棵树涂料股份有限公司 关于公司实际控制人、控股股东部分股份质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 股东 | 是否为 | 本次质押股 | 是否 | 是否 | | | | 占其所 | 占公司 | 质押融资资 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 控股股 | 数 | 为限 | 补充 | 质押起始日 质押到期日 | | 质权人 | 持股份 | 总股本 | 金用途 | | | 东 | | 售股 | 质押 | | | | 比例 | 比例 | | | 洪杰 | 是 | 1,763.4611 | 否 | 否 | 2025-02-26 | 至质权人解 除质押为止 | 华能贵诚 信托有限 公司 | 4.99% | 3.35% | 个人融资 | 本次质押股份不存在被用作于重大资产重组业绩补偿等事项的担保或其他 保障用途的情形。 二、股东累计 ...

证券时报网讯，企查查APP显示，近日，云南三棵树电子商务有限公司成立，法定代表人为刘清国，注 册资本200万元，经营范围包含：建筑防水卷材产品销售；建筑材料销售；建筑物清洁服务等。 企查查股权穿透显示，该公司由三棵树间接全资持股。 ...

证券代码：603737 证券简称：三棵树 公告编号：2025-005 三棵树涂料股份有限公司 关于为子公司提供担保的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ●被担保人名称：三棵树涂料股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）下属全资子 公司福建省三棵树新材料有限公司（以下简称"秀屿三棵树"）、安徽三棵树涂料 有限公司（以下简称"安徽三棵树"）、上海三棵树防水技术有限公司（以下简称 "三棵树防水"）。 ●本次担保金额及已实际为其提供的担保余额：公司本次为秀屿三棵树担保 的本金金额为人民币25,000万元，为安徽三棵树担保的本金金额为人民币7,000 万元，为三棵树防水担保的本金金额为人民币6,000万元。截至本公告披露日， 公司已实际为秀屿三棵树提供的担保余额为人民币98,981.25万元，为安徽三棵树 提供的担保余额为人民币52,941.22万元，为三棵树防水提供的担保余额为人民币 7,857.49万元（以上担保余额数据均不含本次）。 ●本次担保是否有反担保：否。 ●对外担保逾期的累计金额：无。 ●特别风险 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from 310 to 420 million RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 78.63% to 142.02% [1]. - The company is focusing on retail transformation, with a notable increase in retail sales of wall paint by 14.14% year-on-year, while engineering wall paint sales declined by 12.51% [2]. - The company is expected to complete its channel structure adjustment in 2024, with future growth driven by retail business expansion and diversified product offerings [2]. - Profitability is projected to improve due to better cost management and reduced impairment losses, with a significant decrease in impairment provisions compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The company forecasts a recovery in profit margins in 2025, supported by a slowdown in price competition and improved operational efficiency [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company expects its full-year revenue to remain stable, with a slight decline of 2.81% in the first three quarters [1]. - The anticipated net profit for 2024 is projected to be between 310 million and 420 million RMB, with a substantial increase in non-recurring net profit [1]. Operational Analysis - The company is shifting its focus from large B-end clients to small B+C-end clients, which is expected to enhance its customer base [2]. - The retail transformation is expected to continue, with contributions from various new business initiatives [2]. Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to see a significant recovery in profit margins due to reduced competition and improved operational efficiency [3]. - The cumulative credit impairment losses from 2021 to Q3 2024 are projected to be 1.58 billion RMB, indicating a release of bad debt risks [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 370 million, 850 million, and 1.21 billion RMB, respectively [4]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 58.2, 25.2, and 17.8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4].

证券时报网讯，三棵树(603737)1月22日发布2024年业绩预增公告，预计实现净利润为3.10亿元~4.20亿 元，净利润同比增长78.63%~142.02%。 证券时报•数据宝统计显示，三棵树今日收于40.82元，下跌2.72%，日换手率为0.56%，成交额为1.20亿 元，近5日上涨7.42%。 通过对2024年业绩预增50%以上的个股走势进行统计发现，预告发布后当日股价上涨的占比66.36%，股 价发布当日股价涨停的有22家。 预告发布后5日股价上涨的占比69.55%。 ...

报告期内，公司始终坚持精益管理，重视成本管理及费用管控，有效降低了各项成本费用支出。 同时，公司收到各项政府补助较上年同期有所增加。 证券时报e公司讯，三棵树(603737)1月22日晚间公告，预计2024年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 3.1亿元到4.2亿元，同比增加78.63%到142.02%。 ...

Financial Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 to be between RMB 310 million and RMB 420 million, an increase of RMB 136.46 million to RMB 246.46 million compared to the previous year, representing a growth of 78.63% to 142.02%[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between RMB 144.14 million and RMB 254.14 million, an increase of RMB 100.10 million to RMB 210.10 million compared to the previous year, reflecting a growth of 227.33% to 477.13%[3] - The previous year's net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 173.54 million, with a net profit of RMB 44.03 million after deducting non-recurring gains and losses[5] Business Strategy and Operations - The company has actively responded to market changes by optimizing its revenue structure and launching new products, which has led to a growth in its retail business and an increase in its customer base[6] - The company has effectively reduced various costs and expenses through lean management and cost control during the reporting period[6] - Government subsidies received during the reporting period have increased compared to the previous year, positively impacting the net profit attributable to shareholders[6] - The company has made provisions for asset impairment and credit impairment based on prudence, which are expected to decrease compared to the previous year[6] Audit and Investment Risks - The performance forecast is based on preliminary calculations by the finance department and has not yet been audited by a registered accountant[7] - Investors are advised to pay attention to investment risks as the forecast data is preliminary and the final audited financial data will be disclosed in the 2024 annual report[8]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 56.67 RMB based on a 35x PE for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning into a new growth phase after a period of high growth and risk, focusing on retail and small B+C segments, with significant revenue growth expected from both C and B segments [1][2]. - The company has established a strong brand presence in lower-tier cities and is leveraging this to capture growth opportunities in higher-tier cities, particularly through innovative service models [1][2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in gross margins and a reduction in sales expense ratios, leading to improved profitability and return on equity (ROE) in the coming years [2]. Summary by Sections Retail Breakthrough and Growth Phase - The company has shifted focus from large B to small B+C segments, completing channel structure adjustments by 2024, which will release previously accumulated high risks [1]. - C-end sales have shown resilience, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21% from 2011 to 2023, driven by a strong brand foundation in lower-tier cities [1][22]. - The company has maintained its position as the leading brand in engineering coatings, with 2023 revenues of approximately 4.68 billion RMB and a CAGR of 37% since 2012 [1][48]. Profit Margin Elasticity - Future profit margin elasticity is expected to come from gross margin recovery and reduced sales expense ratios, with gross margins projected to recover to 30.3% and 31.1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]. - The sales expense ratio is anticipated to decrease to 14.5% and 14.0% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, as the company improves its channel construction and reduces hiring [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.3 billion RMB, 8.5 billion RMB, and 12.1 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE of 47.0, 23.5, and 16.6 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [3]. Expansion into Industrial Coatings - The company is actively entering the industrial coatings market, focusing on automotive and marine coatings, with plans to build new production lines starting in 2024 [60][61]. - The industrial coatings market is characterized by high technical difficulty and is currently dominated by foreign brands, presenting an opportunity for the company to break the monopoly [60][61].