关于对外担保的进展公告 股票代码：603799 股票简称：华友钴业 公告编号：2025-134 浙江华友钴业股份有限公司 关于对外担保的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 被担保人名称及是否为上市公司关联人：被担保人包括 8 家公司，不存在关 联担保； 本次担保金额及累计担保余额：2025 年 11 月担保金额合计 246,818.35 万元； 截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，浙江华友钴业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"华 友钴业"）对外提供担保余额为 8,943,946.43 万元，主要为对控股子公司及其下属 企业的担保； 对外担保逾期的累计数量：无； 特别风险提示：公司及控股子公司对外担保总额超过最近一期经审计净资产 100%；2025 年 11 月为资产负债率超过 70%的子公司提供的担保金额为 113,618.35 万元，敬请投资者注意相关风险。 一、担保情况概述 单位：万元 | 担保人 | 被担保人 | 担保金额 | 担保到期日 | 债权人 | | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. has successfully completed the issuance of its 2025 eighth phase of technology innovation bonds, raising 700 million RMB with a maturity of 269 days and an interest rate of 2.40% [1] Group 1 - The bond issuance amount is 700 million RMB, with a unit face value of 100 RMB [1] - The bonds are underwritten by a consortium led by CITIC Bank, Zheshang Bank, and Ping An Bank, utilizing a book-building and centralized placement method for public issuance in the national interbank bond market [1] - The funds raised from this bond issuance will be used to repay the company's interest-bearing liabilities [1]

Group 1 - The company announced that it will provide guarantees totaling 2.468 billion yuan for eight subsidiaries by November 2025 [1] - The company will provide 1.136 billion yuan in guarantees for five subsidiaries with a debt-to-asset ratio exceeding 70% and 0.696 billion yuan for three subsidiaries with a debt-to-asset ratio below 70% [1] - The subsidiaries will provide 0.636 billion yuan in guarantees for subsidiaries with a debt-to-asset ratio below 70% [1] Group 2 - As of November 30, the company's total external guarantee balance is 89.439 billion yuan, primarily for its controlling subsidiaries and their subordinate enterprises [1] - The total amount of external guarantees exceeds 100% of the most recent audited net assets [1] - The company reminds investors to be aware of risks associated with guarantees provided for subsidiaries with a debt-to-asset ratio exceeding 70% [1]

Group 1 - Non-ferrous metal concept stocks declined in early trading, with Luoyang Molybdenum and China Aluminum falling over 3%, and Huayou Cobalt down over 2% [1] - Non-ferrous related ETFs dropped approximately 2% [1] Group 2 - Various non-ferrous metal ETFs showed declines, with the Non-ferrous Metal ETF at 1.789, down 0.035 or 1.92%, and the Non-ferrous Metal ETF Fund at 1.743, down 0.031 or 1.75% [2] - Brokerages forecast that copper and cobalt prices will continue to rise due to supply tightness, while lithium prices are expected to benefit from unexpectedly high energy storage demand [2] - Despite fluctuations in precious metal prices, the overall bullish outlook remains unchanged, supported by loose liquidity and increased efforts by countries to secure key resources [2]

华友钴业受益于镍价潜在上涨，印尼政策调整可能引发供应扰动，推动 镍价反弹。即使镍价维持当前底部，湿法项目仍能贡献稳定利润，公司 湿法产能可超产至 23-24 万吨/年，权益量约 12 万吨/年以上。 钴市场供需紧张，预计 2026 年钴价将继续上行。刚果金配额制导致全 球供需偏紧，未来两三年内全球钴价可能维持高位甚至进一步上涨，公 司钴业务重心将转向印尼湿法冶炼副产品，自有钴权益产量预计为 1.3 万吨左右。 碳酸锂市场已进入反转行情，需求超预期和供给端低于预期将支撑价格 继续上行，预计 2026 年碳酸锂价格中枢将高于目前水平。公司津巴布 韦和澳大利亚铁矿项目已完成氯化锂产线试运行，大幅降低成本并提高 产量。 印尼项目提供显著税收优惠，15 年内免除企业所得税，预计能贡献接近 30 亿元的归母净利润。与淡水河谷合作的 Pomalaa 和 Sotavakka 项 目将在 2026 年底和 2027 年陆续投产，推动公司业绩增长。 公司在津巴布韦新建硫酸锂工厂，提升回收率至 80%，降低运输成本， 预计 2026 年碳酸锂当量产能将提升至 6 万至 8 万吨，后年达到 12 万 吨，综合成本降至 6 万元每吨， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [7] Core Insights - The lithium industry is experiencing strong near-term demand, with significant price increases for lithium carbonate driven by supply disruptions and robust battery demand. However, there are considerable divergences in long-term demand forecasts, particularly for 2026 and 2027 [1][3][30] - The report anticipates a supply increase of 32.3% in 2026 and 17.1% in 2027, primarily from new projects in domestic salt lakes and increased production from African and Australian mines [2][10] - The demand forecast for 2026 estimates a total lithium carbonate demand of approximately 207.2 million tons LCE, with a year-on-year growth of 25.2% [25][30] - The supply-demand balance is expected to show a slight surplus in 2026 but may shift to a shortage in 2027 due to declining supply growth and sustained high demand [4][30] Supply Summary - The global lithium resource supply is projected to be 163.4 million tons in 2025, 216.2 million tons in 2026, and 253.2 million tons in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.3%, 32.3%, and 17.1% respectively [2][12][31] - Supply disruptions, particularly from the Jiangxi mine, have impacted the 2025 supply growth, which is expected to decline to 22.3% from 28.6% in 2024 [10][11] Demand Summary - The report highlights a significant divergence in demand growth expectations for 2026, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a 75% increase in energy storage installations and a 60% penetration rate for new energy vehicles [3][26] - The total demand range for lithium carbonate in 2026 is estimated between 197.5 million tons and 216.8 million tons LCE, reflecting a nearly 20 million tons variance based on different growth assumptions [26][30] Balance Summary - The supply-demand balance for 2025 is projected to show a shortage of approximately 2.0 million tons, while 2026 is expected to have a surplus of 9.1 million tons [4][30] - The report indicates that the lithium market may face a persistent shortage starting in 2027 due to reduced supply growth and high demand [4][30] Price Summary - The report estimates that the fundamental price for lithium carbonate in 2026 will be in the range of 80,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton, with potential upward pressure on prices in the second half of 2026 due to anticipated shortages [5][34] - If a sustained shortage occurs, prices could rise to 120,000 yuan per ton [5][34]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2250 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026, and the energy storage sector expected to grow at an impressive rate of 48.3% [5]. - The demand surge will create substantial pressure on the supply of battery cells and upstream materials, highlighting the need for a stable and efficient supply chain to capitalize on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Battery Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on three core topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, the release of the authoritative 2025 lithium battery brand rankings, and B2B procurement matchmaking [5][6][7]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The main forum will cover topics such as lithium carbonate fundamentals and supply-demand outlook, advancements in solid-state battery key electrolyte materials, and high-performance in-situ polymerized electrolytes [9]. - Notable participants include Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Liyang Zhongke Solid Energy New Technology Co., and various leading battery manufacturers and material suppliers [9][10]. Group 4: Participation and Sponsorship - The participation fee for the conference is set at 2800 yuan per person, with a limited-time free attendance option available for the first 200 registrants [16]. - Sponsorship opportunities are available for companies interested in promoting their brand at the event [16].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The weakening of the US dollar credit remains the core logic for gold pricing in 2025, with a notable negative correlation between gold prices and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves [11][12] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2026, which may support gold prices, especially with concerns over the independence of monetary policy due to potential changes in leadership [13][15] - The long-term trend of weakening US dollar credit is not expected to change, with the US fiscal deficit projected to reach 6.9% of GDP in 2024, indicating ongoing structural issues in the US fiscal system [16][17] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Supply constraints for copper are expected to intensify, with significant disruptions in overseas copper mining projects leading to a projected decrease in output by over 100,000 tons in 2025 [23][24] - The demand for copper is anticipated to grow significantly due to the rise of AI and data centers, with each MW of installed capacity requiring approximately 27 tons of copper [27][28] - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by a weak dollar and continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to drive copper prices upward [29][31] Group 3: Energy Metals - The supply of lithium and cobalt is expected to improve significantly due to the end of overseas capacity clearances and the implementation of supply constraint policies by major producing countries [33] - The demand for energy metals is projected to benefit from the resilience of battery technologies and the growth of the energy storage sector, leading to a positive supply-demand dynamic [33][34] Group 4: Tin - The supply of tin is tightening due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and ongoing production disruptions in Myanmar, with exports from Indonesia declining by approximately 20% year-on-year [45][46] - The global demand for refined tin is expected to grow, particularly in the electronics sector, driven by high semiconductor sales and the increasing use of tin solder in AI and high-performance computing applications [51]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "dual increase in volume and price + technological leap" pattern [3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - By 2025, global lithium battery production is expected to reach 2250 GWh, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026, and the energy storage sector projected to grow at 48.3%, driven by both domestic and international demand [5]. - There is a notable supply gap in battery cells and various materials, necessitating a stable and efficient supply chain to capitalize on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Battery Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on three core topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, the release of the authoritative 2025 lithium battery brand rankings, and B2B procurement matchmaking [5][6][7]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The main forum will cover lithium carbonate fundamentals and supply-demand outlook, advancements in solid-state battery key electrolyte materials, and high-performance in-situ polymer electrolytes [9]. - Notable participants include Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Liyang Zhongke Solid Energy New Technology Co., and various leading battery manufacturers and material suppliers [9][10]. Group 4: Participation and Sponsorship - The participation fee is set at 2800 yuan per person, with limited free attendance available for the first 200 registrants [16]. - Sponsorship opportunities are available for companies interested in participating in the event [16].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 - 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 供应格局趋紧，工业金属价格大幅 上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 行 业 点 评 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 有色金属 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37% ...