吉祥航空（603885.SH）2024 年年报点评 战略布局渐显成效，分红回购提升投资者信心 2025 年 04 月 24 日 ➢ 2025 年 4 月 21 日公司发布 2024 年年报：2024 年公司营业收入 221 亿元， 同比+9.9%，归母净利润 9.1 亿元，同比+18%，扣非归母净利润 8.0 亿元，同比 +10.6%；4Q24 公司营业收入 46.0 亿元，同比+9.2%，归母净亏 3.6 亿元（4Q23 归母净亏 3.6 亿元），扣非归母净亏 3.9 亿元（4Q23 扣非归母净亏 3.9 亿元）。2024 年公司运力投放增长大于价格降幅，ASK 同比+17%、座公里收益同比-8%、客运收 入同比+8%，油价下降对冲降价影响，净利率同比+0.4pct。 ➢ 4Q24 国际运力投放同比大幅增长弥补价格下滑影响，油价同比回落抬升利润 中枢。四季度公司座公里营收 0.34 元，同比-5%，行业价格普遍下滑的环境下公司 单季度营收同比仍有 9%增速与公司国际航线运力投放加大有关（4Q24 国际港澳台 ASK 同比+129%、国内-3%）。四季度油价同比明显回落对冲了降价影响，4Q24 国 内航空煤油 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][25]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 914 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, indicating continuous improvement in performance and a commitment to active dividend distribution and share buybacks [1][6]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 15.5 yuan, with the current price at 12.65 yuan, suggesting a potential upside of 22% [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 22,095 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [2][6]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 1,709 million yuan, reflecting an 87.0% increase compared to 2024 [2][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is expected to rise from 0.42 yuan in 2024 to 1.23 yuan by 2027 [2][6]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 31 in 2024 to 10 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2][6]. Operational Metrics - **Capacity and Load Factors**: - The Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) for 2024 is projected to increase by 17.3% compared to 2023, while the Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) is expected to grow by 19.9% [6][7]. - The passenger load factor is anticipated to be 84.6% in 2024, a slight increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. - **Cost Management**: - Operating costs are expected to rise by 10.5% in 2024, with fuel costs specifically increasing by 8.6% [6][7]. - The company is focusing on cost control, with a projected decrease in unit costs per seat kilometer [6][7]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan per share, totaling 220 million yuan, which represents 78.13% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][7].

而国内航线运力相对控制，2024 年公司国内线ASK 同比仅增长2.50%，客座率同比增加2.72pct，国内 线RPK 实现同比增长5.80%。 公司座公里收益略下降，九元航空表现优秀 公司座公里收益略下降。2024 年公司客公里收益同比下降4.4%，座公里收益同比略下降2.3%。九元航 空经营表现优秀，同时品牌影响力逐步提升。2024 年九元航空实现营业收入42.66 亿元，同比增长 16.9%；净利润3.32 亿元，同比增长27.41%，高于其旅客量增速27.34%。 事件: 2025 年4 月21 日，吉祥航空发布2024 年年报： 2024 年，公司实现营业收入220.95 亿元，同比增长9.95%；归母净利润为9.14 亿元，同比增长21.69%。 扣非归母净利润为8.03 亿元，同比增长10.56%。 2024Q4，公司实现营业收入46.03 亿元，同比增长9.19%；归母净利润为-3.57 亿元，2023 年同期为-3.82 亿元，扣非归母净利润为-3.86 亿元，2023 年同期为-3.93 亿元。 投资要点: 国际航线加速开拓、运力迅猛增长，需求快速提升2024 年公司加速国际航线布局，新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to see improvements in supply and demand during the peak season, with potential recovery in ticket prices as demand continues to grow during holidays like Spring Festival and Qingming [1][3]. Supply Side Analysis - Supply chain issues and the impact of the US "reciprocal tariffs" may further slow down aircraft introductions [3][4]. - Short-term increases in utilization rates are limited due to engine maintenance [3][4]. - Domestic flight load factors remain high, indicating limited capacity for overall peak season growth [3][4]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand is expected to continue growing, particularly during the Spring Festival and Qingming holidays, which may lead to improved supply-demand dynamics and a potential recovery in low ticket prices [3][4]. Industry Performance Data - In March 2025, the industry saw a year-on-year increase in ASK and RPK of 4.5% and 6.7%, respectively, with a load factor of 83.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The average domestic economy class ticket price was 722 yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year, with Q1 ticket prices showing a decline of 12% [4][5]. Fuel Price Trends - The average price of aviation kerosene in Q1 2025 was 5,952 yuan per ton, down 10% year-on-year, while the price in April dropped to 5,602 yuan per ton, a decrease of 15.4% [5][6]. - Brent crude oil prices averaged $74.98 per barrel in Q1 2025, down 8.3% year-on-year, with April's average at $66.81 per barrel, down 24.9% [6]. Capacity and Fleet Management - Airlines are reallocating capacity to international routes, with domestic ASK decreasing but load factors improving [7]. - In March, China Southern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft, adding 13 planes, while other airlines also saw varying increases [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [5][12]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 22.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 914 million yuan, reflecting a 17.5% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The company experienced a significant recovery in operations, with passenger capacity increasing by 17.3% year-on-year, and international routes seeing a remarkable growth of 141.1% [4]. - Despite the growth in business volume, the average fare per passenger decreased by 8.4% year-on-year due to high competition and a high base effect from the previous year [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's total operating costs reached 18.98 billion yuan, up 10.5% year-on-year, while the unit cost of non-fuel expenses decreased by 5.2% to 0.216 yuan [4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.13 billion yuan, 1.69 billion yuan, and 2.24 billion yuan respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.42 yuan in 2024 to 1.02 yuan by 2027, reflecting a positive outlook on profitability [8][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 16.90 [6][7]. Core Views - The company's FY24 results met expectations, with operating revenue of RMB 22.095 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 914 million, up 21.7% [1][4]. - Despite a significant drop in oil prices in Q4 2024, the company reported a net loss of RMB 357 million, which was a slight improvement of 6.7% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved industry supply-demand dynamics, resource optimization, and increased utilization of wide-body aircraft, leading to an upward shift in profitability and ROE levels [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY24, the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 22.095 billion, reflecting a 9.9% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 914 million, marking a 21.7% increase [1][5]. - The company’s operating costs rose to RMB 18.978 billion, a 10.5% increase, while gross profit increased by RMB 233 million (8.1%) to RMB 3.117 billion [3][5]. Capacity and Utilization - The company focused on increasing capacity on international routes in 2024, resulting in a 17.3% increase in supply and a 19.9% increase in demand, with an overall passenger load factor of 84.6%, up 1.8 percentage points [2][3]. - The average aircraft utilization increased by 1.2 hours to 11.5 hours, contributing to a decrease in unit costs [3][5]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 20% and 8% to RMB 1.533 billion and RMB 2.330 billion, respectively, due to anticipated delays in aircraft deliveries and ongoing weak revenue levels [4][24]. - The target price has been revised to RMB 16.90, based on a PB ratio of 3.7x for 2025, reflecting a decrease from the previous estimate of 4x [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Overweight" [3][21][30] Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in holdings related to consumer-oriented aviation and express delivery, while holdings in the shipping and shipbuilding sectors have significantly decreased [3][4] - In Q1 2025, the total market value of transportation industry funds reached 22.2 billion, a decrease of 22% quarter-on-quarter, ranking 14th among 31 industries [3][4] - The proportion of holdings in aviation transportation, express delivery, and highways has increased, accounting for 45%, 23%, and 8% respectively, with notable increases of 4 percentage points, 1 percentage point, and 2 percentage points [10][12] Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Transportation Industry Fund Holdings - The total market value of transportation industry fund holdings in Q1 2025 is 22.2 billion, down 22% from the previous quarter, maintaining a rank of 14th among all industries [4][10] - The market value of the transportation industry accounts for 3.13% of the total A-share market value, with an underweight of 1.48% [3][4] 2. Changes in Fund Holdings by Sub-Sectors - The market values for aviation transportation, express delivery, shipping, railway transportation, ports, airports, raw material supply chain services, cross-border logistics, and highways are 10.1 billion, 5.2 billion, 1.3 billion, 1.9 billion, 0.5 billion, 0.03 billion, 1.2 billion, 0.2 billion, and 1.8 billion respectively, with respective quarter-on-quarter changes of +4%, +1%, -4%, -0.15%, -0.68%, -0.05%, +0.41%, -1.78%, and +1.67% [10][12] 3. Top Ten Holdings in Transportation Industry Funds - The top ten holdings in transportation industry funds include SF Express, Juneyao Airlines, Air China, Huaxia Airlines, Southern Airlines, Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, Spring Airlines, Jianfa Co., China Eastern Airlines, and YTO Express, with the addition of China Eastern Airlines in Q1 2025 [17][20] - Stocks with a total market value exceeding 300 million and a quarter-on-quarter growth rate exceeding 10% include China Eastern Airlines, Guangdong Expressway A, and Daqin Railway, with market values of 800 million, 800 million, and 400 million respectively, and growth rates of 29%, 65%, and 92% [17][20] 4. Valuation of Key Companies in the Transportation Industry - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating "Buy" ratings for COSCO Shipping Energy and YTO Express, and "Outperform" ratings for Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines, with projected EPS and PE ratios for the coming years [21][30]

吉祥航空公告2024 年度业绩,报告期内公司实现营业总收入220.95 亿元,同比增长9.95%;实现归母净利润 9.14 亿元,同比增长17.52%,符合预期。 财务数据:收入—— 根据公司公告,吉祥航空2024 年主营业收入为218 亿元,同比23年+9.8%。客运方面,在 2024 年国内供给过剩,海外航线继续释放运力的环境下,票价持续常态化,A320/B737/B787 机型客公里收 益分别同比-8.16%/-6.82%/-14.08%;成本——根据公司公告,吉祥航空2024 年主营业成本为189 亿元,单位 ASK 成本为0.34元,同比-5.56%,单位ASK 扣油成本同比-8.7%。盈利——根据公司公告,吉祥航空2024年 实现归母净利润9.14 亿元,同比增长17.52%。油汇敏感性——根据公司公告,人民币对美元汇率每波动 1%,对应公司净利润变化为4484 万元,与去年相比外汇敞口大幅减少。若油价波动1%,对应公司净利润变 化为5164 万元。 回购及分红比例提升,彰显公司提升股东回报决心。报告期内,吉祥航空实施了2024 年度利润分配预案,拟 向全体股东每股派发现金红利人民币0.1 元,2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.095 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 914 million yuan, up 17.52% year-on-year [2] - The increase in revenue is attributed to a rise in turnover volume, with a total turnover volume growth of 19.9% in 2024, while the unit revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by 9.6% [2] - Domestic passenger load factor remains high, while the load factor for international routes has room for improvement [2] - The fleet size expanded to 127 aircraft by the end of 2024, with an increase in fleet utilization to 11.53 hours, which is higher than the level in 2019 [2] - Unit costs decreased due to falling oil prices and improved utilization rates, with the unit cost per available seat kilometer down by 5.8% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.284 billion, 1.725 billion, and 2.049 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 40.4%, 34.4%, and 18.8% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.095 billion yuan, a 9.95% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 914 million yuan, reflecting a 17.52% increase year-on-year [4] - The quarterly net profit for 2024 was 3.7 million, 1.15 million, 7.8 million, and -3.6 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +127%, +212%, -27%, and +6.7% respectively [2] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 14.1%, with a projected gross margin increase to 15.4% in 2025 [4] Operational Metrics - The company’s domestic passenger load factor reached 87.1%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the international load factor was 76.4%, with potential for further improvement [2] - The fleet utilization rate improved by 1.19 hours year-on-year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [2] Cost Management - The average fuel price decreased by 7.0% year-on-year, contributing to a reduction in unit costs [2] - The unit cost per available seat kilometer was 0.339 yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, with fuel costs at 0.123 yuan, a decrease of 7.4% [2] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.284 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 40.4%, and further growth expected in subsequent years [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 22.095 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.95%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 914 million yuan, up 17.52%, aligning with expectations [6] - The company plans to increase shareholder returns through a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan per share, totaling 414 million yuan, which constitutes 45% of the net profit. Additionally, the company has repurchased shares worth 121 million yuan, with the combined total of repurchases and dividends accounting for 78.13% of net profit [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 20.096 billion yuan in 2023 to 22.855 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.4% [5][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 778 million yuan in 2023 to 1.619 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant growth rate of 77.1% in 2025 [5][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.34 yuan in 2023 to 0.74 yuan in 2025 [5][7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.9% in 2023 to 15.7% in 2025 [5][7] Operational Data - The company’s capacity (ASK) is expected to grow by 17.3% year-on-year in 2024, with a recovery to 177.9% of the 2019 levels for international routes [6] - The passenger load factor is anticipated to increase by 2.0 percentage points compared to 2023, indicating improved operational efficiency [6]