Group 1 - The copper concept sector increased by 1.95%, ranking 6th among concept sectors, with 58 stocks rising, including Northern Copper, which hit the daily limit, and Jin Chengxin, Jiangxi Copper, and Jintian Co., which rose by 6.70%, 6.12%, and 6.05% respectively [1][2] - The main capital inflow into the copper concept sector was 281 million yuan, with 35 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 50 million yuan, led by Northern Copper with a net inflow of 244 million yuan [2][3] - The net inflow ratios for Northern Copper, Xiyu Co., and ST Shengtun were 19.90%, 15.00%, and 11.19% respectively, indicating strong investor interest in these stocks [3] Group 2 - The top gainers in the copper concept sector included Northern Copper, which rose by 10.03%, and Xiyu Co., which increased by 5.95%, while the top losers included Huamao Co., which fell by 7.56% [3][6] - The trading volume and turnover rates for the leading stocks in the copper sector showed significant activity, with Northern Copper having a turnover rate of 6.86% and Xiyu Co. at 4.85% [3][4] - The overall performance of the copper concept sector reflects a positive sentiment among investors, as evidenced by the substantial net inflows and the number of stocks experiencing gains [2][5]

Group 1 - The gold concept sector saw an increase of 1.71%, ranking 8th among concept sectors, with 55 stocks rising, including Jin Yi Culture, Northern Copper, and Zhuhai Group hitting the daily limit [1] - Notable gainers included Jin Chengxin (up 6.70%), Jiangxi Copper (up 6.12%), and Quzhou Development (up 6.05%), while major decliners were Western Gold (down 2.83%), Shandong Gold (down 2.81%), and Caibai Co. (down 2.04%) [1] - The gold concept sector experienced a net inflow of 178 million yuan, with 35 stocks receiving net inflows, and six stocks seeing inflows exceeding 50 million yuan, led by Northern Copper with a net inflow of 244 million yuan [1] Group 2 - In terms of capital inflow ratios, Jin Yi Culture, Northern Copper, and ST Shengtun had the highest net inflow rates at 22.51%, 19.90%, and 11.19% respectively [2] - The top stocks by net inflow included Northern Copper (10.03% increase), Jin Yi Culture (10.13% increase), and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (3.42% increase) [2] - Other notable stocks with significant net inflows were Luoyang Molybdenum (up 5.06%) and Quzhou Development (up 6.05%) [2] Group 3 - The overall performance of the gold sector was mixed, with some companies like Western Gold and Shandong Gold facing declines, while others like Northern Copper and Jin Yi Culture showed strong gains [1][2] - The data indicates a strong interest from institutional investors in the gold sector, as evidenced by the significant net inflows into key stocks [1][2]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance, with electrical alloy hitting the 20% limit up, and stocks like Northern Copper, Zhongfu Industry, and Jinchengxin all rising over 5% [1] - Major companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Shenhuo Co. also experienced significant stock price increases [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will peak at approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025, driven by tightening supply outside the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The global copper market is facing a structural imbalance in supply and demand, with processing fees for copper concentrate declining and some smelters reducing output due to cost pressures [3] - The demand for copper is being supported by the transition to renewable energy and digitalization, with a surge in data center construction expected to significantly increase copper consumption [3] - Supply-side tensions are unlikely to ease in the short term, with traditional copper-producing countries like Chile and Peru facing rising production costs and slower-than-expected new capacity additions [3] Group 3 - There has been a noticeable shift in trade flows, with commodity traders rerouting copper originally destined for Asia to the U.S., leading to supply shortages in non-U.S. regions [3] - The London Metal Exchange's inventory has significantly decreased, with available stocks dropping to historical lows [3] - The recycled copper market is also under pressure, as price fluctuations affect the collection of scrap copper, leading to a temporary contraction in recycled copper supply [3] Group 4 - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Jiangxi Copper are well-positioned to benefit from rising copper prices due to their advantages in capacity release and cost control [3] - Companies in niche sectors, such as electrical alloys, are also experiencing growth opportunities [3] - The technical outlook shows that Shanghai copper futures have stabilized above 80,000 yuan, reflecting market concerns over short-term supply tightness [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the sustained upward trend in gold prices driven by ongoing U.S. fiscal pressures and geopolitical issues, while silver is expected to enter a phase of catch-up growth [1][2] - The report predicts that the precious metals market will continue to benefit from a weakening U.S. dollar credit system, with gold's price center expected to rise due to multiple converging factors [2][3] - Silver's supply-demand dynamics are projected to maintain a deficit throughout the year, creating a favorable environment for price increases, especially as the gold-silver ratio is expected to converge downward during the easing cycle [1][2] Group 2 - The industrial metals sector is anticipated to experience price increases due to a combination of limited supply and low inventory levels, particularly for copper and aluminum, which are expected to see demand elasticity release [2][3] - The report highlights that the global economy is likely to remain in a loose monetary environment, which will support industrial metal prices and enhance demand driven by domestic policy [2][3] - The energy metals sector is currently in a clearing phase, with demand from sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics expected to remain resilient, although the overall supply-demand balance is still skewed towards excess [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with significant cost advantages and expected volume growth in the coming years, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tianshan Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, Huayou Cobalt, and Zhongjin Resources [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong performance yesterday but faced a quick decline today, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.61% [1] - UBS warned that the current short squeeze in the US stock market may be nearing its end, with their tracked short squeeze index rising 43% recently [1] - Apollo Global's chief economist predicts a slowdown in US GDP growth to 1.2% by 2025, with inflation remaining around 3% and unemployment potentially rising to 4.4% or higher [1] Economic Indicators - Concerns were raised by Jerome Powell regarding the reliability of economic data collected by US government agencies, suggesting potential overestimations due to budget cuts [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 94.2 billion (approximately RMB 86.13 billion) to support the currency, indicating liquidity tightening in the market [2] Sector Performance - The securities sector failed to maintain its upward momentum, with leading firms like Guotai Junan International seeing a drop of over 4% [3] - The Hong Kong government announced a new policy to promote digital assets, aiming to position the city as a global innovation hub in this field [3] - Consumer sectors are gaining attention, with the "Hong Kong Happy Shopping Festival" set to offer over HKD 1.9 billion in discounts, attracting significant participation from brands [5] Company Developments - Rongchang Bio announced a deal with VorBio for USD 125 million in cash and warrants, but the market reacted negatively, viewing the price as too low [4] - Li Ning's major shareholder has been increasing their stake, which is expected to support the company's operational stability [8] - Li Ning's revenue from running products is projected to grow by 25% in 2024, with core categories like running, basketball, and training accounting for 64% of retail revenue [9] Stock Movements - Stocks in the aviation sector are expected to rise due to increased ticket bookings for the summer travel season, with domestic bookings up about 5% year-on-year [7] - The military sector saw gains following comments from Trump regarding potential conflicts, with companies like China Shipbuilding Defense and AVIC rising over 6% and 1.68% respectively [6] - The weakening US dollar has led to a rise in commodity stocks, with companies like Minmetals Resources and China Hongqiao seeing increases of over 4% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum has successfully acquired Lumina Gold, gaining 100% ownership of the Cangrejos Project in Ecuador, thereby expanding its gold resource portfolio [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition was completed on June 24, 2025, for a total cash consideration of CAD 581 million [1] - The Cangrejos Project is located in the El Oro province of Ecuador, with a resource estimate of 1.376 billion tons and an average gold grade of 0.46 g/t, containing 638 tons of gold [1] - The mine has a projected lifespan of 26 years [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - This acquisition marks Luoyang Molybdenum's second asset in South America, following its 2016 acquisition of niobium and phosphate operations in Brazil [2] - The company plans to leverage its extensive experience in South America to maximize synergies and implement advanced mining technologies [2] Group 3: Production and Economic Outlook - The project is expected to commence production by 2028, with an annual output of approximately 11.5 tons of gold [2] - The Cangrejos Project could increase Ecuador's gold production by nearly 50%, as the country is projected to produce 24.3 tons of gold in 2024 [2] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for the mine is estimated at around USD 671 per ounce, positioning it within the lower cost quartile of global gold mines [3] Group 4: Future Prospects - The company anticipates potential increases in resource reserves based on ongoing exploration efforts [3] - The favorable infrastructure surrounding the mine, including proximity to major transport routes and water sources, is expected to enhance cost competitiveness [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum views gold as a key asset for future expansion, recognizing its dual financial and industrial attributes in the current economic landscape [3]

Summary of Cobalt Industry Report Industry Overview - The cobalt market is expected to face a shortage of 30,000 to 40,000 tons in 2025 due to the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and limited new supply from Indonesia [2][3] - The global cobalt resources are primarily concentrated in DRC (56% of reserves), Australia (16%), and Indonesia (6%), with China having a high dependency on imports [2][7] Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC government announced a four-month ban on cobalt raw material exports on February 22, 2025, which was extended for another three months on June 21, 2025. This is expected to reduce the DRC's annual production of 220,000 tons by over 100,000 tons [3] - Despite a previous surplus of cobalt, the current market is expected to see a shortage due to the DRC's export restrictions and limited new supply from Indonesia [3][4] - The cobalt demand is primarily driven by the lithium battery sector, with 43% of consumption in power batteries and 30% in consumer electronics [4][15] Price Forecast - Short-term projections indicate cobalt prices could rise to around 300,000 yuan/ton due to inventory depletion and upstream reluctance to sell [5] - The long-term price expectation is between 250,000 to 300,000 yuan/ton, supported by DRC government policies and potential quota systems [5] Major Players - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. (LMO) is projected to become the largest cobalt supplier globally, with production expected to reach 114,200 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 100% [2][9] - Huayou Cobalt is also highlighted as a key player with significant production capacity in both DRC and Indonesia, potentially benefiting from price increases [6][18] Emerging Supply Sources - Indonesia is expected to become a significant new supply source, with wet nickel production capacity rapidly increasing, projected to yield 40,000 to 50,000 tons of cobalt by 2025 [10][13] Market Challenges - The domestic cobalt industry in China is facing a decline in capacity utilization due to rising raw material prices leading to cost imbalances [14] - The shift in import forms from refined cobalt to crude hydroxide forms is noted, with potential impacts on the domestic market starting from July 2025 due to DRC's export restrictions [4][12] Future Demand Trends - The demand for cobalt in the lithium battery sector is expected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% anticipated over the next few years [16][17] - The industrial application of cobalt is also projected to see stable growth, particularly in hard alloys and high-temperature alloys [17] Conclusion - The cobalt market is poised for significant changes due to geopolitical factors, supply chain dynamics, and evolving demand patterns, with key players like LMO and Huayou Cobalt positioned to benefit from these trends.

Core Viewpoint - The temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been extended for an additional three months, now lasting a total of seven months, in response to an oversupply in the global cobalt market [1][7]. Industry Impact - The extension of the cobalt export ban has led to a rise in the energy metals sector, with companies like Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ) seeing a stock price increase of 15.42%, and other firms such as Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ) and Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) also experiencing significant gains [1]. - Cobalt prices have increased, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt reported at 244,000 yuan/ton, up by 8,500 yuan from the previous working day [1]. Company Responses - Major Chinese cobalt producers, including Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have indicated that their operations in the DRC are not significantly impacted by the export ban extension. Luoyang Molybdenum reported a cobalt production of 114,200 tons last year, a 106% increase year-on-year, while Huayou Cobalt noted that its cobalt capacity is primarily based in Indonesia, minimizing the impact of the DRC ban [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that domestic cobalt refining companies may face pressure due to increased uncertainty in cobalt raw material supply, although they currently have sufficient inventory to continue production [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for 76% of the world's cobalt production last year [5]. - Prior to the ban, cobalt prices had already dropped nearly 70% from their peak in Q1 2022, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [6]. - The ban's extension is expected to affect 128,000 tons of cobalt exports from the DRC this year, potentially shifting the global cobalt market from oversupply to a shortage by 2025, which could drive prices up [8]. Future Outlook - Industry experts have mixed views on whether the DRC's export ban will effectively alter the global cobalt supply-demand balance. Some predict short-term price increases driven by market sentiment, while others caution that without sufficient demand, the oversupply may persist [8][9]. - The DRC's strategy may include measures to enhance its pricing power in the cobalt market, although the implications of such strategies on the overall market dynamics remain uncertain [9].

洛阳钼业回应刚果(金)钴出口禁令延长：当地矿区生产运营活动正常进行 金十数据6月23日讯，刚果(金)战略矿产市场监管控制局6月21日宣布，将今年2月出台的刚果(金)钴出口 禁令继续延长三个月。针对此事，全球最大钴生产商洛阳钼业于6月23日回应称，目前，公司TFM及 KFM矿区生产运营活动正常进行，预计该临时禁令的延长不会对经营业绩产生重大影响。该公司同时 表示："自首次禁令发布以来，公司始终与刚果(金)政府及行业管理机构保持密切沟通。针对新的情 况，公司将继续保持与相关各方的沟通，密切跟踪政策进展。" （界面） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, suggesting potential investment opportunities in this sector [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that gold prices are currently fluctuating at high levels, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][20]. - The report emphasizes the long-term trend of central banks, particularly in China, increasing their gold reserves, which is expected to support gold prices in the future [20]. - The industrial metals sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with specific recommendations for companies in copper and aluminum sectors due to their favorable market conditions [2][29][42]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.16% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index dropped by 3.57%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.12 percentage points [4]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 12.25%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.49 percentage points [7]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw varied price changes, with copper prices down by 0.12% and aluminum prices up by 1.86% [13]. - Gold prices on COMEX decreased by 1.98%, while silver prices fell by 1.15% [13]. - Lithium prices showed a decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down by 1.07% [13]. Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and geopolitical developments [2][20]. - China's central bank has resumed increasing its gold reserves, which is expected to bolster market confidence in gold [20]. Industrial Metals - In the copper sector, the report indicates a slight increase in domestic social inventory, while exchange inventories have decreased [29]. - The report suggests that the copper supply is tightening, with recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][29]. - For aluminum, the report highlights a decrease in downstream processing enterprise operating rates, indicating a potential upward trend in aluminum prices [42]. Steel Industry - The report indicates that steel production has increased, while downstream demand has also risen, leading to stable prices for rebar [64]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-side production adjustments and export demand changes in the steel sector [2].