Market Outlook - The overall upturn in the semiconductor industry is expected to continue into 2026, driven by AI and storage chip price increases[26] - The A-share technology sector entered a recovery phase in January 2024 and transitioned to a prosperous phase in August 2024[11] - AI is anticipated to lead the next major cycle in the electronics industry, with structural investment opportunities emerging[11] Performance Metrics - Notable stock price increases for key semiconductor companies from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, include Micron (240.1%), Lam Research (139.2%), and Intel (84.0%)[12] - A-share companies such as Industrial Fulian and Huahong Semiconductor saw stock price increases of 194% and 132%, respectively, in 2025[13] Demand Dynamics - AI infrastructure has not yet significantly boosted downstream demand, despite strong performance in AI-related sectors[39] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with storage and foundry sectors showing notable growth[22] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating, emphasizing the importance of AI and storage as key growth drivers for the semiconductor industry[1] - Investment strategies should focus on companies involved in AI chip production and semiconductor equipment, as these sectors are expected to benefit from increased demand[43] Economic Indicators - The semiconductor market is projected to grow significantly, with total sales expected to reach $774 billion by 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of 23.2%[28] - The global semiconductor sales growth cycle is showing positive trends, particularly in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, driven by AI and storage chip demand[22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation, emphasizing an AI-driven upward economic cycle and the search for structural investment opportunities in the electronics industry [1]. Core Insights - The overall upward cycle in 2026 is expected to continue, with AI infrastructure yet to show significant demand-driving effects [4]. - The A-share technology companies are currently in an upward economic cycle, having entered a recovery phase in January 2024 and a prosperous phase in August 2024 [6][11]. - The semiconductor sector is expected to outperform the consumer electronics sector, driven by AI [11]. Industry Performance - The semiconductor and storage sectors are experiencing a cyclical recovery, with AI's focus shifting from infrastructure to connectivity and operational capacity [12]. - The report highlights significant stock price increases for various companies, such as Micron (up 240.1%), Lam Research (up 139.2%), and Intel (up 84.0%) from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [12]. - A-share technology companies like Industrial Fulian and Huahong Semiconductor have also shown substantial growth, with increases of 194% and 132%, respectively [13]. Market Dynamics - The global semiconductor market has emerged from the previous downturn, with a positive growth cycle expected to persist into 2026 [19][22]. - The report notes that the main growth drivers are AI and rising prices of storage chips, with the industry entering a comprehensive upward trend from August 2024 [26]. - The demand for AI-related products and services is anticipated to increase, particularly in the context of data interconnectivity and GPU localization [43][80]. Downstream Demand - The report indicates that while AI infrastructure remains strong, it has not yet led to a clear increase in downstream demand [39]. - The overall inventory levels in the industry are low, and the demand outlook is still weak, suggesting a cautious approach to investment [39]. AI and Semiconductor Trends - The report identifies two major directions for AI: high-speed PCB and upstream domestic AI GPUs [41]. - The demand for domestic AI GPUs is expected to grow significantly in 2026, although there remains a substantial capacity gap [80]. - The report emphasizes the importance of GPU acceleration and the anticipated explosive growth in GDDR7 demand [64].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the chip ETF Guangfa (159801), which opened down by 1.50% at 0.982 yuan on February 2 [1] - Major holdings in the chip ETF experienced declines, with notable drops including ZTE International down 1.28%, Haiguang Information down 1.68%, and GigaDevice down 4.47% [1] - The performance benchmark for the chip ETF is the yield of the National Securities Semiconductor Chip Index, managed by Guangfa Fund Management Co., with a return of 99.10% since its inception on January 20, 2020, and a return of 14.65% over the past month [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry [5] Core Insights - The ongoing shortage of niche storage is expected to continue, with AI demand opening up incremental growth opportunities [2][8] - AI demand is anticipated to drive the need for niche storage, particularly in applications such as automotive, industrial, and security [7] - Domestic manufacturers are positioned competitively in the niche storage market and are likely to benefit from the supply constraints caused by international suppliers exiting this segment [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Key investment targets include domestic storage chip design companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Puran, Jucheng, Dongxin, Beijing Junzheng, and Hengshuo [3][8] - Other relevant companies include domestic storage module manufacturers like Jiangbolong, Demingli, and Baiwei Storage, as well as semiconductor equipment firms such as Zhongwei, Jingzhida, and Beifang Huachuang [3][8] - Companies benefiting from storage technology iterations include Lanke Technology, Lianyun Technology, and Aojie Technology [3][8] Market Dynamics - The supply of niche storage products is being significantly reduced as major international suppliers focus on mainstream storage products, leading to a substantial contraction in supply [7] - For instance, the global MLC NAND Flash capacity is projected to decrease by 41.7% in 2026 due to supply shrinkage, which is expected to drive prices significantly higher [7] - Domestic firms are gaining market share in niche storage, with Zhaoyi Innovation holding approximately 18.5% of the NOR Flash market in 2024, ranking second globally [7]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "speed + power" as the core contradiction in the future development of the AI industry, highlighting significant market movements in both speed and power sectors over the past year [1][9] - For 2026, the focus should be on observing the commercial closure rhythms of CSPs and large model vendors to grasp the overall industry beta, while actively seeking value expansion and capital expenditure shifts in specific segments [1][10] - The report suggests that capital expenditure (Capex) and return on investment (ROI) are critical variables in understanding computing power demand, which is primarily driven by token counts and Capex [1][10] Investment Strategy - The computing power industry is viewed as the foundation of technology, with a long-term positive outlook. The report recommends actively seeking value expansion and capital expenditure shifts in specific segments, maintaining the focus on "speed + power" [3][12] - Key areas of investment include domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, storage, and AI terminals [3][12] Capital Expenditure Analysis - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) have significantly increased their capital expenditures, with the top five CSPs' combined Capex reaching $308.1 billion in Q3 2025, a 75% year-on-year increase [24][27] - Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle are leading this trend, with Google and Microsoft showing particularly aggressive Capex growth to support AI infrastructure [27][28] - The report highlights that Google’s Capex for 2024 is projected to be $52.5 billion, a 63% increase year-on-year, while Microsoft’s Capex is expected to reach $75.6 billion, an 84% increase [27][28] AI Model and Chip Development - The report discusses the rapid iteration of Google's Gemini model family, which has introduced significant advancements in AI capabilities, including multi-modal understanding and enhanced reasoning abilities [36][41] - NVIDIA is identified as a key player in the computing power landscape, with its customer base including CSPs, large model vendors, and government clients, driving substantial revenue growth [24][30] - The report notes that the demand for AI chips is expected to grow, with companies like OpenAI forming strategic partnerships with major chip manufacturers to enhance their infrastructure [62][63] Domestic Computing Power Growth - The report anticipates a breakthrough year for domestic computing power in 2026, driven by the acceleration of domestic large models and positive capital expenditure outlook from cloud vendors [2][6] - The supply side is expected to transition from single-point breakthroughs to multi-point developments, indicating a robust growth trajectory for domestic computing power vendors [2][6] Semiconductor and Storage Opportunities - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as benefiting from an AI-driven storage supercycle, with equipment manufacturers poised to gain from original factory expansions [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving growth in the storage industry, predicting rapid expansion in this sector [2][8]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Hengyun Chang Vacuum Technology Co., Ltd. (stock code: 688785.SH) experienced a strong market debut on the STAR Market, with its stock price surging over 320% on the first day of trading, closing at 371.3 yuan per share, a 302.8% increase from the issue price of 92.18 yuan per share [2][4]. Company Overview - Hengyun Chang specializes in the research, production, sales, and technical services of plasma radio frequency power systems, plasma excitation devices, and related core components, providing comprehensive solutions for plasma processes [2][4]. - The company aims to enhance the resilience and security of China's semiconductor supply chain through increased investment in R&D and production capacity following its IPO [6]. Financial Performance - Projected main business revenues for Hengyun Chang are approximately 158 million yuan, 325 million yuan, 541 million yuan, and 304 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [2][4]. - The revenue share from plasma radio frequency power systems is expected to increase from 62.47% in 2022 to 76.54% in the first half of 2025 [2][3]. Client Base and Market Position - Hengyun Chang has established itself as a leading domestic supplier of plasma radio frequency power systems, achieving mass production and delivery to major semiconductor equipment manufacturers [4][5]. - The company has a high customer concentration, with the top five clients contributing 73.54% to 89.37% of its main business revenue from 2022 to the first half of 2025, with the largest client, Tuojing Technology, accounting for a significant portion of sales [4][5]. IPO and Fundraising - The IPO raised approximately 14.14 billion yuan, which is less than the initially planned amount of 14.69 billion yuan, leading the company to adjust its investment projects based on the actual funds raised [8][9]. - The funds will be allocated to projects including the industrialization of semiconductor radio frequency power systems and the establishment of a smart production base for core components [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the focus of fund managers on semiconductor equipment and technology sectors, highlighting the performance of key fund managers and their investment strategies in these areas [4][20]. Fund Manager Performance - Fund managers Xie Zhiyu and Qiao Qian have significant management scales of 38.6 billion and 24 billion respectively, with annualized returns of 18% and 13.52% since their tenure began [4]. - Xie Zhiyu's fund, Xingquan Helun Mixed A, achieved a return of 35.7% in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 18 percentage points [4][5]. - Qiao Qian's fund, Xingquan Business Model Mixed A, recorded a return of 38.05% in 2025, with a net value growth exceeding 10% in early 2026 [5][6]. Investment Focus - Both fund managers are concentrating on technology sectors, particularly overseas computing power and semiconductor equipment [8][9]. - Xie Zhiyu maintains a high equity position, with 92.5% of the fund's net value in stocks by the end of the fourth quarter [11]. - Qiao Qian's fund also operates with a high equity position of 94.4% at the end of the fourth quarter [16]. Portfolio Adjustments - Xie Zhiyu's fund saw significant changes in its top holdings, with the introduction of storage testing and module leader Baiwei Storage, which is expected to see a net profit growth of 427%-520% in 2025 [12]. - New entries in the top ten holdings for Xie Zhiyu include semiconductor equipment stocks Tuo Jing Technology and Huahai Qingke, while North China Innovation, Lens Technology, and Focus Media exited the list [13]. - Qiao Qian's fund also adjusted its top holdings significantly, with six new entries, including Baiwei Storage and Huahai Qingke, while North China Innovation and Lens Technology were removed [17]. Overall Market Outlook - The two fund managers agree on the positive outlook for technology sectors, particularly semiconductor equipment, storage, and overseas computing power [20].

Group 1: Non-Bank Financial Industry - The public fund performance benchmark has officially been implemented, with the preset interest rate research value decreasing by 1 basis point week-on-week [6][7] - The non-bank index fell by 1.5%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.9 percentage points, with both brokerage and insurance indices showing a synchronized decline of -0.6% and -4% respectively [6][7] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds decreased by 15.8% week-on-week to 34,429 billion yuan, while the margin financing balance slightly decreased by 0.3% to 2.72 trillion yuan [6] Group 2: TuoJing Technology (688072) - TuoJing Technology is a leading domestic semiconductor thin film deposition equipment company, with a significant revenue increase from 440 million yuan in 2020 to 4.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 75% [11][12] - The company has established a dual-platform driven structure focusing on thin film deposition and advanced bonding equipment, with a strong market demand evidenced by an order backlog of approximately 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 46% [11][12] - The global thin film deposition equipment market is projected to reach approximately 24.4 billion USD by 2025, with the domestic market estimated at around 10.2 billion USD, indicating substantial room for domestic substitution [12][13] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - The average price of raw milk has remained low, with a current price of 3.03 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01 yuan week-on-week, while the industry is approaching a supply-demand turning point [16][17] - The restaurant sector is showing signs of recovery, with December 2025 retail sales of social consumer goods reaching 45,136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and restaurant income growing by 2.2% year-on-year [16][17] - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.79 percentage points, with snack foods performing well, increasing by 6.12% [18][19]

Group 1 - On January 27, the target price increases for listed companies were led by Changyuan Donggu, Hongyuan Green Energy, and Haotaitai, with target price increases of 50.61%, 42.37%, and 30.60% respectively, belonging to the automotive parts, photovoltaic equipment, and home goods industries [1][2] - A total of 29 listed companies received broker recommendations on January 27, with Tonghua Dongbao, Zhibang Home, and Yanjing Beer each receiving one recommendation [2] Group 2 - On January 27, one company had its rating upgraded, with Xinda Securities raising Xueda Education's rating from "Hold" to "Buy" [3][4] Group 3 - Five companies received initial coverage on January 27, including Taihe New Materials with an "Overweight" rating from Dongbei Securities, Keli Ke with an "Outperform" rating from Guoxin Securities, Tianyi Medical with a "Buy" rating from Xinda Securities, Xinhenghui with an "Overweight" rating from Zhongyou Securities, and Tuojing Technology with a "Buy" rating from Donghai Securities [5][6]

Group 1 - On January 27, brokerages set target prices for listed companies with notable increases for Changyuan Donggu, Hongyuan Green Energy, and Haotaitai, with target price increases of 50.61%, 42.37%, and 30.60% respectively, belonging to the automotive parts, photovoltaic equipment, and home goods industries [2][3] - A total of 29 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on January 27, with Tonghua Dongbao, Zhibang Home, and Yanjing Beer receiving one recommendation each [3] Group 2 - On January 27, one company had its rating upgraded, with Xinda Securities raising Xueda Education's rating from "Hold" to "Buy" [4][5] - Five companies received initial coverage on January 27, including Taihe New Materials with an "Accumulate" rating from Northeast Securities, Kelike with an "Outperform" rating from Guosen Securities, Tianyi Medical with a "Buy" rating from Xinda Securities, Xinhenghui with an "Accumulate" rating from Zhongyou Securities, and Tuojing Technology with a "Buy" rating from Donghai Securities [6]