5 October 2025 | 10:17PM HKT Equity Research China Semis: AI drives growth ahead; DeepSeek V3.2-Exp released; Raising TP of SMIC / Hua Hong to HK$117; Buy We hold a positive view on the continuous development of China's domestic AI ecosystem, benefiting SMIC and Hua Hong's long-term business opportunities in semiconductors. DeepSeek recently released a new experimental model DeepSeek V3.2-Exp (announcement) which improves training and inferencing efficiency. As a result, Deepseek reduced their API costs by ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant gains, with the ChiNext 50 ETF rising by 3.31%, and stocks like Western Superconducting increasing over 16% [1] - OpenAI and AMD have signed a multi-billion dollar chip deal to jointly develop AI data centers based on AMD processors [1] - The domestic AI chip industry is entering a new era, with a complete industrial chain established from advanced processes to model upgrades by major companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext 50 ETF tracks the ChiNext 50 Index, with 68.77% of its holdings in the electronics sector and 4.99% in the computer sector, aligning well with the development of AI and robotics [2] - The ETF also covers various high-tech fields such as semiconductors, medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment, indicating a strong growth potential [2] - Investors optimistic about China's hard technology development are encouraged to maintain their focus on this sector [2]

Group 1 - On September 30, a total of 3,713 stocks in the A-share market received financing funds, with 525 stocks having a buying amount exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - The top three stocks by financing buying amount were Xin Yiseng, Shenghong Technology, and Zhongxin International, with amounts of 2.853 billion yuan, 2.817 billion yuan, and 2.798 billion yuan respectively [1] - Nine stocks had financing buying amounts accounting for over 30% of the total transaction amount on that day, with Hanbang Technology, Zhongxin Shares, and Jinli Technology leading at 51.41%, 41.48%, and 35.35% respectively [1] Group 2 - There were 21 stocks with a net financing buying amount exceeding 100 million yuan, with Huayou Cobalt, Founder Technology, and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech ranking the highest at 426 million yuan, 383 million yuan, and 241 million yuan respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the valuation expansion of domestic wafer foundries and infers a price increase cycle for storage driven by intensified demand [3]. Market Performance - In the week before the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the electronics sector increased by 3.51%, with semiconductors up by 7.64%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.58%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan's Information Technology Index rose by 1.17% and 1.12%, respectively [3]. Domestic Foundry Performance - During the holiday, Hong Kong's semiconductor sector performed well, with domestic foundries SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reaching historical highs. This performance is attributed to the rapidly expanding AI computing power demand and the enhancement of high-end chip design capabilities [3]. Demand for Domestic Computing Power - Major companies like Deepseek, Alibaba, and Tencent are increasingly adapting to and purchasing domestic computing power, reflecting a growing confidence in the capabilities of local foundries [3].

Core Viewpoint - Emphasis on the valuation expansion of domestic wafer foundries, driven by intensified demand and a price increase cycle in the storage sector [2] Market Performance - In the week before the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the electronics sector increased by 3.51%, with semiconductors up by 7.64%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.58% [2] - During the holiday period, Hong Kong's semiconductor sector performed well, with domestic foundries SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reaching historical highs [2] Semiconductor Industry Insights - Domestic wafer foundry capabilities are advancing in both quantity and quality, driven by the growing demand for AI computing power and enhanced high-end chip design capabilities [2] - The increasing procurement by major companies like Deepseek, Alibaba, and Tencent highlights the necessity and scarcity of domestic high-end chip foundry capabilities [2] Storage Market Dynamics - The AI application Sora gained significant popularity during the holiday, and OpenAI partnered with AMD to expand computing power, indicating a competitive arms race among internet giants [2] - The NAND market is expected to see a rise in both volume and price due to increased demand from AI inference, with predictions of a 5-10% increase in contract prices for NAND Flash products in Q4 2025 [2] Capacity Growth Projections - From 2024 to 2028, China's wafer fab capacity is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.1%, surpassing the global average of 5.3% [3] - The capacity growth for mainstream nodes (22nm-40nm) is expected to be particularly strong, with a CAGR of 26.5% [3] Company Developments - Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) completed its restructuring and is poised for expansion, with its valuation exceeding 160 billion yuan [4] - The establishment of the third phase of YMTC is expected to boost orders for domestic front-end equipment companies [4] AI Infrastructure Investments - Alibaba Cloud is accelerating its transformation into a full-stack AI service provider, with a three-year plan to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure [5] - The launch of the new AI server, designed to support multiple AI chips, reflects the growing demand for AI solutions [5] Investment Recommendations - Continued focus on domestic semiconductor companies such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and various storage firms like Demingli and Jiangbolong is advised [2][3][4] - In the consumer electronics sector, companies like Industrial Fulian and Xiaomi Group are highlighted for potential investment [6]

节前A股 9月市场走出先扬后抑走势，总体呈现震荡上行态势，三大指数月线均收涨，其中创业板指9月累计涨超 12%创三年多新高，科创50指数涨超11%创近四年新高。从板块来看，9月市场热点主要集中在芯片产 业链、机器人、储能方向。芯片产业链中，德明利9月股价翻倍，中芯国际、华虹公司、张江高科等多 只芯片概念股9月创新历史高。机器人股中，首开股份9月走出12天11板。储能方向，宁德时代、阳光电 源续创历史新高，并且宁德时代在月中A+H股总市值超越贵州茅台。 9月30日盘面上，沪深两市成交额2.18万亿元，较上一个交易日放量200亿元。市场热点题材反复活跃， 有色金属、存储芯片板块涨幅居前，白酒、大金融等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指涨0.52%，深成指 涨0.35%，创业板指涨0.00%。 国际油价8日上涨。截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨82美分，收于每 桶62.55美元，涨幅为1.33%；12月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨80美分，收于每桶66.25美元， 涨幅为1.22%。 | | 报价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 46601.78 | ...

Group 1: Industry Insights - The storage chip industry is the second largest segment in the semiconductor sector, following logic chips, and has experienced three cycles since 2016, with the current demand driven primarily by large tech companies' infrastructure needs in the AI era, indicating stronger sustainability [2] - Recent reports indicate a significant increase in global storage chip prices over the past six months, with a "super cycle" anticipated in the storage chip industry due to the AI boom, as per Morgan Stanley's latest research [1] - The storage industry is characterized as an oligopoly, with 3-5 major companies dominating the market, where Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron control over 90% of the DRAM market, and the NAND Flash market is similarly dominated by major players [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Dongxin Co. is advancing its "storage, computing, and networking" integrated strategy, with its 1xnm flash memory products now in mass production and sales, while the development of its 2xnm SLC NAND Flash product series is ongoing [3] - Wanrun Technology's semiconductor storage products are applicable in consumer, industrial, and enterprise storage scenarios, with its controlling shareholder being a provincial state-owned investment platform in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3] - Semiconductor leaders in Hong Kong, such as SMIC and Hua Hong, have seen stock increases of 12.51% and 13.81% respectively, with Goldman Sachs raising their target prices for these companies, anticipating long-term benefits from AI-driven chip demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs remains bullish on the Chinese semiconductor industry, particularly on SMIC, raising its target prices for both H-shares and A-shares multiple times within a month, driven by the growth in AI applications and demand for semiconductor products [1][2][3]. Group 1: Target Price Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has raised the target price for SMIC's H-shares to HKD 117 and A-shares to CNY 211, marking the fourth adjustment in less than a month [1][2]. - The adjustments reflect a 31.79% increase for A-shares and an 83.67% increase for H-shares over the recent period [3]. Group 2: Market Performance - SMIC's market capitalization has increased by over CNY 400 billion, with the combined market value of A-shares and H-shares reaching CNY 780.5 billion [4]. - The stock price of SMIC has shown significant growth, with H-shares rising 134.36% and A-shares increasing 71.62% since June 19, 2025 [3]. Group 3: AI Demand and Company Growth - The rapid expansion of China's AI ecosystem, particularly the DeepSeek V3.2-Exp model, is expected to drive demand for power management chips and image sensors, benefiting SMIC [3][5]. - SMIC's production capacity utilization has rebounded to over 90%, with significant demand for PMIC and MCU chips from edge AI devices [5][6]. Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Expansion Plans - SMIC plans to invest USD 7.33 billion in capital expenditures in 2024 and USD 7.6 billion in 2025, with a focus on equipment purchases and infrastructure development [6][7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity by approximately 50,000 12-inch wafers annually across various locations [6][7]. Group 5: Acquisition Strategy - SMIC is acquiring a 49% stake in SMIC North, a key 12-inch production base in Beijing, which will enhance its production capabilities and asset quality [6][7]. - The acquisition is viewed as a strategic move to bolster SMIC's capacity expansion and operational efficiency [7].

Market Overview - During the holiday period, major global stock indices showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.44%, Nasdaq up 0.57%, and S&P 500 up 0.39% [2] - European markets also saw gains, with the UK FTSE 100, France's CAC 40, and Germany's DAX rising approximately 1.70%, 1.29%, and 2.05% respectively [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.1%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.75%. The Korean Composite Index and Nikkei 225 increased by 3.64% and 6.24% respectively [2] - Commodity prices rose significantly, with COMEX gold and silver increasing by 4.82% and 4% respectively, and various base metals also showing gains [2] A-Share Market Insights - The last trading day before the holiday saw the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, STAR 50 Index, and CSI 500 Index reach new highs [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the SSE 50 Index approached their previous highs, forming a W-bottom pattern since September [3][4] - The performance of brokerage stocks is highlighted as a key area to watch for potential market movements [3][4] Future Market Expectations - The outlook for the post-holiday market is bullish, with expectations that fluctuations in global markets will not alter the upward trend of the A-share market [5][6] - Gold and silver prices continue to rise, with gold surpassing $4000 per ounce, positively impacting precious and base metals [6] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector is driven by AMD's significant partnership with OpenAI, leading to a 28% increase in AMD's stock price [7] - The storage sector in A-shares is showing strong upward momentum, with ETF funds recommended as a good investment choice [7] - The new energy battery sector, particularly solid-state batteries, is expected to grow, with major companies like Ganfeng Lithium and CATL seeing substantial gains [8] Robotics and AI Hardware - The humanoid robot sector is gaining attention, with Tesla's humanoid robot supply chain highlighted as a key area for investment [10] - The upcoming release of Tesla's humanoid robot Figure 03 is anticipated to impact the market positively [11] Conclusion - The recent highs in major indices are seen as a positive sign for the overall market, with a focus on whether the Shanghai Composite Index can achieve new highs [11] - Key sectors to monitor include technology, AI, solid-state batteries, and humanoid robotics, as these are expected to remain the main investment themes [11]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整 性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而 引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 中國上海，2025 年 10 月 8 日 於本公告日期，本公司董事分別為： SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION 中 芯 國 際 集 成 電 路 製 造 有 限 公 司 * （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） （股份代號：00981） 海外監管公告 本公告乃中芯國際集成電路製造有限公司（Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation,「本公司」）根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條作出。 茲載列本公司於上海證券交易所網站刊發的《關於發行股份購買資產暨關聯交易事項的進展公 告》，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 中芯國際集成電路製造有限公司 公司秘書 / 董事會秘書 郭光莉 * 僅供識別 | A股代码：688981 | A股简称：中芯国际 | 公告编号：2025-028 ...