Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the real estate industry is currently undergoing a significant transition between old and new models, with the company experiencing a continuous decline in sales and facing a challenging overall operating environment [1] - The company is actively promoting reform and risk management efforts with the support of various stakeholders [1]

Group 1 - Vanke A responded to investor inquiries on its interactive platform regarding information related to Prologis, stating that relevant business information should be based on official releases from Prologis [1]

证券日报网讯 1月30日，万科A在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，2024年初，公司提出聚焦主业、瘦 身健体一揽子方案，降低负债为保障经营安全，截至2025年6月末全口径付息债务已较2023年末下降。 （编辑 楚丽君） ...

证券日报网讯1月30日，万科A在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，当前公司在各方支持下，全力推进 改革化险工作。公司也将持续研究和借鉴国际优秀同行企业的经验和教训。 ...

证券日报网讯 1月30日，万科A在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司持续在与金融机构协调优化融 资条件，降低利息成本，融资利率呈逐年下降趋势，目前已取得较好进展。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's economic rebalancing and global liquidity easing are expected to support stocks, commodities, and EM currencies in 1H26, but may face challenges in 2H26 if US inflation resurges [3][11][17]. - The convergence of China's economic rebalancing and global liquidity easing is likely to bolster risky assets throughout 1H26, while the outlook for 2H26 is more cautious [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In the Chinese IG space, MEITUA and KUAISH had balanced two - way flows, with slightly better selling on 10yr issues; ZHOSHK tightened 1bp; ORIEAS/CCAMCL papers with <5yr tenor tightened 1 - 3bps [2]. - In HK, FRESHK curve tightened 3 - 5bps; BNKEA T2s traded mixed; NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex surged 0.7 - 7.3pts; LASUDE 26 rose 0.9pt; FAEACO 12.814 Perp was 0.5pt higher; EHICAR 26 dropped 1.4pts [2]. - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 rose 1.5 - 1.8pts; SHUION 29/DALWAN 28 gained 0.4pt; DALWAN priced USD360mn new bond; LNGFOR 27 - 32/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 rose 0.3 - 1.2pts [2]. - In KR space, HYUELE 29s tightened 4bps; AU and JP fixed - rate IG credits squeezed 1 - 2bps tighter; JP bank FRNs tightened 1 - 2bps; JP insurance subs remained better offered; there were decent two - way flows in Yankee AT1s [2]. - In SE Asian space, BBLTB T2s tightened 2 - 3bps; GLPSP Perps rose 1.1 - 1.3pts; VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.4pt higher; INDYIJ 29 lost 0.4pt; MEDCIJ 26 - 30s were unchanged to 0.2pt lower [2]. - In the Middle Eastern space, long - end KSAs lost 0.1 - 0.3pt; SNBAB 6.15 Perp was 0.1pt lower; SECO 36 tightened 1bp; ARAMCO attracted better buying but closed largely unchanged [2]. Macro News Recap - On Thursday, S&P (-0.13%), Dow (+0.11%), and Nasdaq (-0.72%) were mixed; US latest initial jobless claims were +209k, higher than the market expectation; UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 - year yield at 3.53%/3.80%/4.24%/4.85% [6]. Desk Analyst Comments - Regarding NWDEVL/VDNWDL, media reported Blackstone in advanced discussions to become NWD's largest shareholder; NWD confirmed potential investors approached, but no agreement reached; Cheng's family owns c45% of NWD [7]. - Cheng's family reshuffled group entities: transferred c54% of CTF Jewellery to Beyond Luck Limited; increased stakes in CTFH by 9.49% to 90.52%; CTFE to sell Alinta Energy to Sembcorp for AUD6.5bn (cUSD4.3bn) [8]. - Maintain buy on VDNWDL 9 Perp due to higher certainty of coupon payments; expect more corporate actions for NWDEVLs [9]. China Policy: Signals for Economic Rebalancing - China's policymakers signaled a pivot to "boosting domestic demand" in 2026 to address economic imbalance [10]. - Demand - side policies focus on stabilizing the property market and stimulating consumption; supply - side policies aim to address overcapacity; trade - side policies employ a four - pronged approach [10]. - The rebalancing process may lead to a GDP growth target reduction to 4.5% - 5% in 2026, but is structurally positive [10]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Issued: Dalian Wanda issued USD360mn 2 - yr bond at 12.75% coupon; First Abu Dhabi Bank PJS issued USD750mn 5 - yr bond at SOFR+75; Muthoot Finance issued USD600mn 4.5 - yr bond at 5.75% coupon [19][20]. - Pipeline: No offshore Asia new issues pipeline on this day [20]. News and Market Color - 101 credit bonds were issued yesterday in onshore primary issuances, amounting to RMB82bn; month - to - date, 1,920 credit bonds were issued with RMB1,652bn raised, a 13.5% yoy increase [25]. - Adani Group plans to raise up to cUSD1.5bn in JPY - denominated bonds and loans [25]. - China Overseas Grand Oceans and Yuexiu Property propose to issue 3 - yr dim sum bonds [25]. - China Vanke to make partial payment for 21Wanke02 onshore bonds on 30 Jan'26 [25]. - West China Cement's proposed acquisition of AfriSam Holdings has a consideration of USD150mn [25].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Property Industry Industry Overview - The China property industry has shown an 11% year-to-date performance, outperforming the MSCI China index which is at 7% [1] - The current sentiment-driven rally is viewed as likely unsustainable due to a fragile housing market and high sector valuations [1] Core Insights - The rally is attributed to improved investor sentiment from positive policy news and a recent uptick in housing sales, influenced by a later Chinese New Year and mild policy easing [9] - However, there are multiple near-term headwinds anticipated, including: - Over-optimism regarding the physical market recovery [3] - Potential earnings misses for key developers in 2025, with profit warnings expected from Greentown, Longfor, and Vanke [4] - A decline in contracted sales in Q1 due to reduced saleable resources and a high base effect [4] - High valuations across the sector [4] Company-Specific Insights - Companies expected to face challenges include: - **Greentown**, **Jinmao**, **Longfor**, and **Vanke A/H** due to potential earnings misses and high valuations [4] - In contrast, companies favored for their fundamentals include: - **CR Land** and **Seazen A/H**, which are robust mall operators benefiting from consumption-boosting initiatives [5] - **C&D**, recognized as residential market consolidators with optimized landbanks supporting margins and positive earnings growth [5] Market Outlook - A potential sector pullback is anticipated as the results season approaches, with cautious guidance expected from developers regarding property sales, development margins, and earnings recovery [9] - The likelihood of further policy stimulus is seen as diminishing, especially before the Chinese New Year, given the recent improvement in home sales volume in tier 1 cities [9] - Analysts maintain a cautious outlook, predicting continued home price declines in top-tier cities over the next two years [9] Stock Ratings and Price Targets - The report includes a summary of stock ratings and price targets for various companies in the sector: - **C&D International** (OW, PT: HKD 20.62) - **CR Land** (OW, PT: HKD 39.20) - **Seazen A** (OW, PT: RMB 19.70) - **Greentown** (UW, PT: HKD 7.86) - **Vanke A** (UW, PT: RMB 2.70) [6] Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of considering the broader market context and potential conflicts of interest in investment decisions [7][8] - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of fund flows into the sector, given the bearish outlook for the China housing market [9] This summary encapsulates the key insights and outlook for the China property industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both risks and opportunities within the sector.

Group 1 - Vanke's bonds have generally increased in value, with "22 Vanke 02" rising over 4% [1] - "22 Vanke 06" has increased by more than 3% [1] - "23 Vanke 01" has seen an increase of over 2% [1] - "22 Vanke 04" has risen by more than 1% [1]

专题报告 2026-01-30 钢材：从地产约束到信用改善 报告要点： 近期，万科债务展期的平稳落地与监管层不再硬性要求房企上报"三条红线"指标，标志着房 地产行业运行逻辑发生了根本性逆转。黑色金属行业作为其核心上游，过去三年锚定的"信用 收缩-开工坍塌"负反馈环路正在解体。我们认为，当前黑色系品种正处于由悲观预期出清向 信用溢价修复的切换期，市场需重新评估下游需求韧性与定价结构变化。 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 赵 航（联系人） 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢 黑色金属研究 | 钢材 1.黑色顶压前行，结构呈现韧性 2026 年是"十五五"规划的开局之年。在 2025 年我国 GDP 突破 140 万亿元、经济 增速保持 5.0%的背景下，宏观运行正由总量扩张转向结构优化与动能切换。作为 国民经济的重要基础行业，黑色金属需求逻辑正经历从"地产主导"向"制造业与 新型基建驱动"的深刻重构。近期万科债券展期方案的成功落地，在阶段性缓释 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases and quality improves, with new and old drivers working together to push the market towards a bottoming out [2] - Key cities are anticipated to find a balance in sales by 2026, although long-tail cities will continue to drag down overall performance, albeit at a reduced rate [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Review - The industry faced a significant downturn in sales and investment, with actual sales area data falling below previous lower predictions due to overly optimistic expectations for third and fourth-tier cities [8] - The decline in new construction and investment was more pronounced than expected, with new construction area growth at -20.4% and completion area growth at -18.1% [10][24] 2026 Industry Outlook - The focus will be on high-quality development, with key cities expected to stabilize sales. The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [7][9] - Investment growth is projected to be slow, with construction area growth expected between -5.8% and -10.2%, and corresponding investment growth between -4.0% and -12.5% [10][11] - The report predicts that the sales amount for 2026 could vary under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, with forecasts of 2.6%, -4.9%, and -11.4% respectively [10] Policy Focus - The main pressures on the industry will stem from investment growth challenges, with expectations for interest rate cuts and asset recovery policies to support the sector [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies related to interest rate reductions, asset recovery, and urban renewal [10][11] Sales and Investment Predictions - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026, indicating that the total sales area is expected to stabilize between 7-8 billion square meters, driven by improving demand and urban renewal initiatives [44][50] - The sales amount and land acquisition trends are expected to reflect a continued focus on quality and strategic development in key urban areas [50][55]