Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - From a fundamental perspective, the lithium carbonate market in 2026 is expected to show a tight - balance pattern with strong supply and demand. The supply side will have a clear division in regions and resource types, with domestic growth led by salt - lake lithium extraction and overseas by ore - based lithium projects. The demand side will be driven by the booming energy - storage market and the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new - energy heavy trucks, along with the stable growth of new - energy vehicle production and sales [2]. - From a technical perspective, given the previous sharp rise and overall bullish market sentiment, the possibility of a rapid and reverse decline in lithium carbonate prices is low. The current price is close to the first important high after the rebound following the decline of lithium carbonate futures, and it may take time to break through this level [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Lithium Carbonate Trend Analysis: V - shaped Reversal - In 2025, the lithium carbonate market showed a typical V - shaped trend, divided into a unilateral decline from January to June due to weak industry fundamentals and external policy shocks, and an upward - trending period after late June driven by policies and events [5]. - From January to June, the market was in a state of structural oversupply, with downstream new - energy vehicle growth slowing and energy - storage demand under - performing. Social inventory reached 96,000 tons by the end of April, the highest since 2021. After April, the market accelerated its decline due to the US tariff policy, and prices dropped below the break - even point [6]. - After late June, the market rebounded. In July, the "anti - involution" policy boosted sentiment. From late July to September, supply - side events strengthened the expectation of supply contraction, and prices first rose and then fell. After the National Day, the booming energy - storage demand drove prices above 100,000 yuan/ton, and in early December, a new round of upward trend began [7]. Lithium Carbonate Supply Side Capacity and Production - In 2026, the global new lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to be about 30 - 330,000 tons LCE, with a clear division in regions and resource types. Domestic capacity growth will mainly come from salt - lake lithium extraction, while overseas growth will be mainly from ore - based lithium projects. The actual capacity release depends on the price of lithium carbonate [9]. - In 2025, domestic lithium carbonate production increased strongly, with a cumulative output of 871,200 tons from January to November, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The growth was mainly driven by spodumene - based lithium extraction. In 2026, the domestic supply structure is expected to be further optimized, with salt - lake lithium extraction as the key incremental source, but the actual supply release still faces uncertainties [11][12]. Import - At the end of 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports remained stable, with an annual total of about 2.5 million tons. Imports from Argentina increased by 56%, while those from Chile decreased by 17%. In 2026, the import pattern is expected to shift from South - American dominance to diversified supply, with the total import volume expected to be between 2 - 2.5 million tons, but the growth rate may slow [14]. Inventory - Since August 2025, domestic lithium carbonate inventory has been continuously decreasing. In 2026, the market is expected to show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, with a tight balance", and the inventory center is expected to move down further and may show seasonal fluctuations [16]. Demand Side Energy Storage - From January to October 2025, the domestic energy - storage winning - bid capacity reached 148GWh, a year - on - year increase of 39%. In 2026, the energy - storage cell shipment is expected to reach 850GWh, and the annual demand for lithium carbonate in this field is expected to increase by more than 162,000 tons LCE. The global energy - storage demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 30% - 40% in 2026, with China contributing more than 40% [19]. New - energy Vehicles - From January to October 2025, China's new - energy vehicle market grew strongly, with production and sales increasing by more than 30% year - on - year, accounting for 46.7% of the total new - vehicle sales. Exports reached 2.65 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 54%. In 2026, new - energy vehicle production and sales are expected to continue to grow, driving up the demand for lithium carbonate [22][23]. New - energy Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the new - energy heavy - truck market in China grew strongly, with cumulative sales of 1.0423 million vehicles in the first 11 months, a year - on - year increase of 27%. In 2026, the market is expected to enter a stable development stage at a high level, and the penetration rate of new - energy heavy trucks is expected to exceed 30%, even reaching 35% - 40%, which will support the demand for lithium carbonate [24]. Cost Side - As of December 29, the forward spot price of Australian spodumene (5.5% - 6%) was $1680/ton, and the price of lithium - mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) was 1850 yuan/ton, with monthly increases of over 45%. The weighted cost of lithium carbonate is about 82,000 yuan/ton, which further strengthens the bottom support [28][29]. Summary - The environmental rectification and shutdown of Jiangxi's mica mines in 2025 was the key turning point for the lithium carbonate market from oversupply to tight balance. In 2026, the core contradiction in domestic supply lies in the resumption rhythm and intensity of lithium - mica mines in Jiangxi. Meanwhile, the explosive growth of energy - storage demand requires close tracking of policy implementation and actual demand fulfillment [3][30]. - Historically, the probability of price increases in the second half of the year is higher than in the first half. However, the market may show two scenarios in 2026, especially in the first half: either range - bound at the current high level or form a double - top pattern and then enter an adjustment phase. The depth and timing of subsequent corrections depend on the resumption progress of leading manufacturers and the actual fulfillment of energy - storage demand [3][30].

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate is experiencing a strong increase due to tightening supply expectations, with significant price jumps observed in early January 2025, reaching a record high of 137,940 yuan/ton [1]. Group 1: Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices have surged from over 80,000 yuan/ton to 137,940 yuan/ton within two months, driven primarily by increased demand for energy storage [1]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 132,250 yuan/ton on January 6, 2025, marking a 7,900 yuan increase from January 5 [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand for lithium carbonate is robust, with a notable "rush to buy" observed in the market, as inventory levels have been rapidly depleting [1]. - The sales of lithium carbonate have been recovering since the second half of 2025, with a significant portion of customers relying on long-term contracts due to high demand [1]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Supply constraints are expected to persist, with the lithium market transitioning from oversupply to a tighter balance, influenced by factors such as the uncertain resumption of lithium mining in Jiangxi and geopolitical instability [1]. - The inventory of lithium carbonate has been declining for 19 consecutive weeks, indicating a tightening supply situation [1]. Group 4: Policy Support - Government policies, including subsidies for electric vehicle replacements and expanding energy storage compensation standards, are expected to bolster long-term demand for lithium carbonate [1]. - The domestic policy for electric vehicle trade-ins continues to provide significant financial incentives, enhancing market confidence [1]. Group 5: Future Projections - Global demand for lithium carbonate is projected to reach 202,000 tons by 2026, with a 32% year-on-year increase, driven by a surge in energy storage battery demand [1]. - Supply growth is anticipated to be slower due to previous price weaknesses affecting project timelines, with domestic production expected to increase by approximately 59% in 2026 [1]. Group 6: M&A Activity - The rising lithium carbonate market has sparked increased merger and acquisition activity within the industry, with companies like Salt Lake Co. and Shengxin Lithium Energy making significant investments in lithium resources [1]. - Salt Lake Co. plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wenkang Salt Lake for over 4.6 billion yuan, which will significantly boost its lithium carbonate production capacity [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit for 2025, driven by rising prices of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, alongside production capacity expansion through acquisitions [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.29-8.89 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 77.78% to 90.65% [4]. - The forecasted net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be 8.23-8.83 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 87.02% to 100.66% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Production and Sales - In Q4 2025, the company produced approximately 1.63 million tons of potassium chloride, marking an 11.9% increase year-on-year and a 28.0% increase quarter-on-quarter; however, sales decreased by 36.7% year-on-year and 12.0% quarter-on-quarter to 0.95 million tons [5]. - The company’s lithium carbonate production reached about 14,900 tons in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 62.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.4%; sales were 14,100 tons, up 6.3% year-on-year and 29.4% quarter-on-quarter [5]. Group 3: Price Trends - The average price of potassium chloride in Q4 2025 was 3,250 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, while the average price of lithium carbonate was 90,500 yuan per ton, up 19.2% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Strategic Acquisition - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wenkang Salt Lake for approximately 4.605 billion yuan, which will enhance its potassium and lithium resource reserves [6]. - Following the acquisition, Wenkang Salt Lake will become a subsidiary, contributing to the company’s consolidated financial statements and increasing its production capacity for lithium and potassium [6]. - The integration of Wenkang Salt Lake's efficient lithium extraction technology with the company's existing production system is expected to optimize cost structures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has surged due to tightening supply expectations, reaching a new high of 137,940 yuan/ton, with significant increases in both spot and futures prices [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate has been robust, driven primarily by the growth in energy storage needs, leading to a "rush to buy" from downstream customers [3][4]. - Inventory levels of lithium carbonate have been declining for 19 consecutive weeks, indicating strong demand and rapid consumption of existing stocks [5]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to grow by approximately 59% in 2026, while global demand is projected to increase by 32%, highlighting a shift from oversupply to a tighter balance [7]. Policy and Market Confidence - Government policies, such as subsidies for electric vehicle replacements and expanding energy storage compensation standards, are enhancing market confidence in long-term demand for lithium [6]. - The continuation of these policies is expected to support the growth of the lithium carbonate market, particularly in the energy storage sector [6]. Industry Trends and Mergers - The rising prices of lithium carbonate have sparked increased merger and acquisition activity within the industry, as companies seek to secure valuable lithium resources [9][10]. - Notable transactions include Salt Lake Co. acquiring a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake for over 4.6 billion yuan, and Shengxin Lithium Energy's acquisition of a 30% stake in Qicheng Mining for 2.08 billion yuan [9][10].

2026 年 1 月 6 日 公司研究 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告。2025 年，公司预计实现归母净利润 82.9-88.9 亿元，同比增长 77.78%~90.65%；预计实现扣非后归母净利润 82.3-88.3 亿元，同比增长 87.02%~100.66%。 点评： 氯化钾及碳酸锂价格上涨，25Q4 业绩超预期。2025Q4，公司氯化钾产量约为 163 万吨，同比增长 11.9%，环比增长 28.0%；销量为 95 万吨，同比减少 36.7%， 环比减少 12.0%。公司碳酸锂产量约为 1.49 万吨，同比增长 62.9%，环比增长 28.4%；销量为 1.41 万吨，同比增长 6.3%，环比增长 29.4%。我们认为公司碳 酸锂产销量的增长一方面来自于子公司蓝科锂业现有产能的进一步爬坡，另一方 面则来自于公司 4 万吨/年基础锂盐一体化项目于 25 年 9 月建成后所提供的增 量。价格方面，根据百川盈孚数据，2025Q4 国内氯化钾及碳酸锂均价分别为 3250 元/吨和 9.05 万元/吨，同比分别增长 30.6%和 19.2%。受益于氯化钾及碳酸锂 价格的上涨，公司 25Q4 业绩显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a projected growth of 77.8% to 90.7% in 2025 [1][24]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wenkang Salt Lake Co., Ltd. for cash, which is a subsidiary of its controlling shareholder, Wenkang Group [7][4]. - Wenkang Salt Lake has development rights for the Yiliping Salt Lake, which has a resource reserve of 1.65 million tons of lithium chloride and 14.63 million tons of potassium chloride [9]. - The acquisition is valued at approximately 9.03 billion yuan, with an estimated price-to-earnings ratio of about 13.5 times based on the profit commitments for 2026-2028 [13]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Wenkang Salt Lake is projected to generate revenues of 2.084 billion yuan and a net profit of 690 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 316 million yuan for the first eight months of 2025 [11]. - The company has set profit commitments for Wenkang Salt Lake of 668 million yuan, 692 million yuan, and 745 million yuan for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [13]. - The company reported a net cash inflow of 8.859 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong liquidity to support the acquisition [14]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The lithium and potassium markets are currently experiencing high demand, with potassium fertilizer prices rising by 27% year-on-year [20]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rebound to around 120,000 yuan per ton by the end of 2025, driven by increased demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [22]. - The company's cost of lithium carbonate production is significantly lower than that of its competitors, positioning it favorably in the market [24]. Group 4: Future Growth Strategy - The company aims to double its lithium and potassium production capacity by 2025 as part of a three-step plan initiated with Wenkang Group's acquisition [17]. - By 2030, the company plans to achieve an annual production capacity of 10 million tons of potassium fertilizer and 200,000 tons of lithium salts, establishing itself as a leader in the salt lake industry [18].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.50% on January 6, with 30 industries experiencing gains, led by non-ferrous metals and non-bank financials, which increased by 4.26% and 3.73% respectively [1] - The basic chemical industry ranked third in terms of daily gains [1] - The communication industry saw the largest decline, dropping by 0.77% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 1.033 billion yuan across both markets, with 17 industries experiencing net inflows [1] - The non-bank financial sector had the highest net inflow of 6.961 billion yuan, coinciding with its 3.73% increase [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector followed with a net inflow of 5.885 billion yuan and a daily increase of 4.26% [1] - Conversely, 14 industries faced net outflows, with the communication sector leading at a net outflow of 10.507 billion yuan, followed by the media sector with 4.144 billion yuan [1] Basic Chemical Industry Performance - The basic chemical industry increased by 3.12% with a net inflow of 0.954 billion yuan, comprising 408 stocks, of which 314 rose and 82 fell [2] - Notably, 18 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 205 stocks experienced net inflows, with 10 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 0.1 billion yuan [2] - The top three stocks by net inflow were Junzheng Group (0.419 billion yuan), Wanhua Chemical (0.307 billion yuan), and Zhongtai Chemical (0.205 billion yuan) [2] Top Gainers in Basic Chemical Industry - Junzheng Group: +9.48%, turnover rate 4.89%, net inflow 41.861 million yuan [3] - Wanhua Chemical: +7.27%, turnover rate 1.87%, net inflow 30.681 million yuan [3] - Zhongtai Chemical: +9.94%, turnover rate 4.15%, net inflow 20.513 million yuan [3] Top Losers in Basic Chemical Industry - Yilong Shares: +4.49%, turnover rate 4.05%, net outflow -46.719 million yuan [4] - Dongcai Technology: -2.86%, turnover rate 9.07%, net outflow -38.330 million yuan [4] - Guofeng New Materials: +1.62%, turnover rate 23.78%, net outflow -18.762 million yuan [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened positively on January 5, 2026, with major indices rising, and the Guozhen Free Cash Flow Index increasing by approximately 0.4% [1] - Notable stocks such as Fenghuo Communication reached the daily limit, with others like Yaxiang Integration, Salt Lake Co., and China Aluminum also seeing gains [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) experienced a net inflow of over 450 million yuan in the last 10 trading days, bringing its total size to 8.596 billion yuan, indicating significant capital inflow [1] Group 2 - CICC's strategy team defined 2026 A-shares as "riding the momentum," highlighting the strengthening logic of international monetary order reconstruction and the critical application phase of the AI revolution [1] - The performance of China's innovative industries is expected to continue supporting asset performance, with the importance of fundamentals in A-shares increasing after a period of valuation repair [1] - The free cash flow ETF (159201) and its linked funds are designed to closely track the Guozhen Free Cash Flow Index, selecting stocks with positive and high free cash flow, indicating high quality and strong risk resistance suitable for long-term investment [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.50% on January 6, with 30 industries experiencing gains, led by non-ferrous metals and non-bank financials, which increased by 4.26% and 3.73% respectively [1] - The basic chemical industry ranked third in terms of daily gains, rising by 3.12% with a net inflow of 9.54 billion yuan in main funds [2] - The telecommunications industry saw the largest net outflow of main funds, totaling 10.507 billion yuan, followed by the media industry with a net outflow of 4.144 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - In the basic chemical industry, 314 out of 408 stocks rose today, with 18 hitting the daily limit, while 82 stocks declined [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the basic chemical sector were Junzheng Group, Wanhu Chemical, and Zhongtai Chemical, with net inflows of 4.19 billion yuan, 3.07 billion yuan, and 2.05 billion yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Salt Lake Co., East Material Technology, and Guofeng New Materials, with net outflows of 4.67 billion yuan, 3.83 billion yuan, and 1.88 billion yuan respectively [3]

（文章来源：证券时报网） 数据宝统计，截至14:07，盐湖股份成交额60.72亿元，创2022年7月8日以来新高。最新股价上涨 3.29%，换手率3.56%。上一交易日该股全天成交额为50.05亿元。（数据宝） ...