Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for key players in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing gradual pressure, with a focus on rational growth targets for 2025. Key players are emphasizing market share enhancement and strategic execution efficiency. Innovations, market penetration, international expansion, and youth-oriented strategies are highlighted as core directions for liquor companies [2]. - The beer sector shows a slight decline in production, with a 0.6% year-on-year decrease in output from January to April 2025. However, there is potential for recovery in the upcoming peak season, suggesting a favorable investment window [3]. - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, but there are opportunities for growth driven by extended holiday periods and improved travel scenarios. Companies with strong channel networks and high-potential products are recommended for investment [3]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The industry consensus is shifting towards stable, quality growth with a focus on market share rather than aggressive quantitative targets. Major companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are implementing strategies to enhance brand resilience and market stability [2]. - Guizhou Moutai aims for a revenue target of 7.6 billion yuan (approximately $1.1 billion) for 2025, reflecting a 3.49% year-on-year increase, while net profit is targeted at 2.62 billion yuan (approximately $380 million), a 1% increase [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer production for the first four months of 2025 totaled 11.44 million kiloliters, with April showing a 4.8% increase compared to the previous year. The sector is expected to benefit from low comparative bases in the upcoming quarters [3]. - The beverage market is witnessing the launch of innovative products, such as the new electrolyte water brand targeting health-conscious consumers. Despite fierce competition, the beverage sector is projected to maintain high growth due to favorable market conditions [3]. Food Supply - The food supply sector is seeing recovery among leading companies, with a focus on expanding product lines and enhancing distribution channels. Companies like Three Squirrels are diversifying into new categories and exploring innovative retail strategies [7].

Core Viewpoint - The newly revised "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste in Party and Government Agencies" emphasizes a ban on high-end dishes, cigarettes, and alcohol in work meals, which has led to a decline in the stock prices of liquor companies, particularly in the white liquor sector [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of the New Regulations - The new regulations reaffirm existing restrictions on public alcohol consumption, which have been in place since the "Eight Regulations" introduced in 2012, and further clarify the details of these rules [1][3]. - The market share of public alcohol consumption has significantly decreased, from approximately 40% in 2011 to less than 5% currently, indicating a substantial shift in the consumption landscape [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context of Public Alcohol Consumption - Public alcohol consumption has historically held a significant role in Chinese culture, evolving from a political tool to a mainstream market driver, and is now being phased out [2][12]. - Previous bans on public alcohol consumption in 1989, 1996, and 2012 have each led to drastic changes in the white liquor market, with the latest ban being less impactful compared to earlier ones [6][10]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Trends - Following the announcement of the new regulations, 11 white liquor stocks experienced declines ranging from 0.19% to 2.73%, with high-end brands facing larger drops [4][11]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, analysts suggest that the long-term investment logic for the white liquor sector remains largely unaffected, as public alcohol consumption constitutes a minor portion of overall sales [4][6]. Group 4: Changing Consumer Preferences - The current consumer base for white liquor is shifting towards younger generations, who prioritize taste, brand recognition, price, and packaging, indicating a trend towards more diverse and personalized consumption [12][14]. - The top consumption scenarios for white liquor in 2024 are family gatherings, friend meet-ups, and business banquets, reflecting a move away from traditional public consumption [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently facing challenges such as weak sales, price inversion, and high inventory levels, exacerbated by a new alcohol ban, leading to a significant drop in stock prices for liquor companies [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The total revenue of 20 listed liquor companies for 2024 is projected to be 439 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.27%, while net profit is expected to reach 166.63 billion yuan, up 7.40% [1] - The top three companies (Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu) have a market share exceeding 65.4%, with profit concentration reaching 73.92% [1][3] - Moutai's revenue and profit growth for 2024 are both expected to exceed 15%, while Wuliangye's growth has dropped to single digits, marking its lowest level since 2017 [1][3] Group 2: Company Performance - Moutai's revenue for 2024 is projected at 174.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.66%, and net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to achieve a revenue of 36 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.79%, and a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, up 17.29% [3][10] - Gujing Gongjiu's net profit growth is notable at 20.22%, amidst a backdrop of declining performance from many other companies [2][10] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The total operating cash flow for listed liquor companies is projected to be 173.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.64%, driven mainly by leading companies like Moutai [6] - Moutai's cash flow growth rate is particularly high at 38.85%, attributed to increased sales and improved trust from distributors [6] - Contract liabilities for liquor companies totaled 56.08 billion yuan at the end of 2024, with Moutai's liabilities decreasing by 32.09% to 9.59 billion yuan, marking a significant shift in its financial strategy [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The liquor market is experiencing a shift, with Moutai leveraging various sales strategies to maintain its market position, despite facing challenges in balancing volume and price [7][8] - The competition landscape is evolving, with companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also showing some positive financial indicators, despite overall industry challenges [9][10] - The rise of instant retail and e-commerce is reshaping the market, providing opportunities for companies to adapt and capture more daily liquor consumption [12]

证券代码：000799 证券简称：酒鬼酒 公告编号：2025-12 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 关于召开2024年度报告网上业绩说明会的公告 出席本次 2024 年度报告网上业绩说明会的人员有：公司党委书 记、总经理程军，公司独立董事李世辉，公司董事会秘书汤振羽，公 司财务总监赵春雷，酒鬼酒供销有限责任公司总经理王恒俊，公司证 券事务代表宋家麒。 敬请广大投资者积极参与。 特此公告 酒鬼酒股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 5 月 22 日 1 本公司及其董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 酒鬼酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2025 年 4 月 29 日在巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn/）上披露了《2024 年 年度报告》。 为便于广大投资者进一步了解公司 2024 年年度经营情况，公司 定于 2025 年 5 月 27 日（星期二）下午 15:30 至 16:30 采用网络远程 的方式举行 2024 年度报告网上业绩说明会。投资者可登陆网站 https://eseb.cn/1oskwiHAhuE 参与互动交流。为广泛听取投资 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a mixed performance across various segments, with opportunities in new channels and product categories. The report highlights the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Baijiu Sector - The baijiu sector achieved a total revenue of CNY 440.515 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.89%, and a net profit of CNY 166.778 billion, up 7.50%. In Q1 2025, revenue was CNY 152.933 billion, growing 1.82%, and net profit was CNY 63.340 billion, increasing 2.33% [15][19] - High-end baijiu brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are expected to see stable growth targets of around 9%, 5%, and steady progress respectively for 2025 [19][21] - The report notes that companies are increasing dividend rates to enhance returns for investors, with expected dividend yields for major brands ranging from 1.39% to 6.28% in 2025 [18] 2. Frozen Food - The frozen food industry is facing a slowdown in growth, with leading companies like Anjijia showing resilience while others like Qianwei Central Kitchen are under pressure due to product structure. The industry is seeking breakthroughs in products and channels to improve revenue and profit [6] 3. Snack Foods - The snack food sector is experiencing differentiation, with leading companies leveraging product innovation and channel expansion to drive growth. Salted Fish's brand "Big Demon King" has shown significant results from brand investment [6] 4. Soft Drinks - The soft drink segment is seeing high growth from brands like Dongpeng, while companies like LuLu and Master Kong maintain operational resilience. New products in the health drink category are also performing well [6] 5. Pet Food - The pet food industry remains highly prosperous, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. showing revenue growth rates of 21.22% and 19.15% respectively in 2024 [7] 6. Bakery Products - The bakery sector is recovering, with significant growth in supermarket channels driven by new product launches. Companies like Angel Yeast are expanding their international business, contributing to overall growth [8] 7. Dairy Products - Yili's revenue is stabilizing with better-than-expected profit performance, while New Dairy is seeing continuous profit margin improvements. Yili aims for a total revenue of CNY 119 billion in 2025 [8] 8. Beer - The beer market is witnessing a recovery in consumption, with major brands like Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer showing positive sales growth in Q1 2025 [9] 9. Seasoning Products - The seasoning industry is under pressure, but companies like Haitian are performing steadily, with core products like soy sauce maintaining growth [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [9] Core Views - The recent interest rate cuts are expected to boost market liquidity and improve market sentiment, particularly benefiting the liquor sector [7] - The white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, with demand stabilizing and companies focusing on optimizing channels and brand cultivation for growth [7] - The overall valuation of the liquor sector is considered low, with many companies engaging in share buybacks and increasing dividend payouts [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the past month, the food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 2.6% [3] Market News - China's beer export value increased by 8.3% in the first quarter of 2025 [18] - The white liquor industry in Lüliang aims for an output value exceeding 13.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [18] - The EU's total export value of alcoholic beverages is projected to reach 29.8 billion euros in 2024 [18] Investment Insights - The report highlights two main lines for investment recommendations in the liquor sector: companies with valuation advantages and those expected to perform well throughout the year [7] - Recommended companies include: Water Well, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Jiu Gui Liquor for valuation advantages; and Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, Gujing Gongjiu, and Yingjia Gongjiu for overall recommendations [7] Key Company Feedback - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for major players in the liquor sector, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu [11] Industry Data Trends - The cumulative production of white liquor in 2024 is reported at 4.145 million tons, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year [37] - The revenue of the white liquor industry in 2023 reached 756.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [37] - The seasoning industry has seen a market scale growth from 259.5 billion yuan in 2014 to 592.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.6% [41]

Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by a decline in both production and sales, a slowdown in terminal sales, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue decline has increased from 2 to 6 compared to the previous year, with companies like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture facing significant revenue drops for two consecutive years [1] Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai leads the industry with a gross margin of 91.93%, followed by Luzhou Laojiao at 87.54% and Shui Jing Fang at 82.76%. Shui Jing Fang's high gross margin is attributed to the elimination of low-end products, focusing on high-end liquor [2] - The lowest gross margins are reported by Jin Zhong Zi Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture, at 36.03% and 34.94% respectively. Jin Zhong Zi Jiu's gross margin has decreased by 5.38 percentage points, while Shun Xin Agriculture's margin increased by 4.23 percentage points, mainly due to its slaughtering business [2] Gross Margin Trends - In 2024, the median gross margin for 19 liquor companies is 73.16%, down by 2 percentage points from the previous year. 12 companies, accounting for 63%, reported a decline in gross margins, with She De Jiu Ye experiencing the most significant drop of nearly 9 percentage points [3] - Jiu Gui Jiu also saw a gross margin decline of nearly 7 percentage points, indicating that mid-range liquor brands are facing the most severe impacts in this industry adjustment [3] Net Profit Margin Analysis - Guizhou Moutai boasts a net profit margin of 52.27%, followed by Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye at 43.27% and 37.22% respectively, although all three companies experienced slight declines in net profit margins compared to the previous year [4] - The lowest net profit margins are found in Jin Zhong Zi Jiu, Jiu Gui Jiu, Shun Xin Agriculture, Tian You De Jiu, and She De Jiu Ye, all below 10%. The most significant declines in net profit margins were seen in She De Jiu Ye and Jiu Gui Jiu [5] Financial Summary - The financial performance of major liquor companies shows a trend of declining margins, with notable companies like Jiu Gui Jiu reporting a net profit margin as low as 0.88% [4][5] - The financial data indicates that while some companies have managed to improve their net profit margins, the overall trend in the industry is one of contraction and increased pressure on mid-range and low-end products [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by declining production and sales, sluggish terminal movement, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence, leading to price inversions for various products [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The liquor industry is facing dual declines in production and sales, with a notable slowdown in revenue growth for liquor companies in 2024 [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue declines increased from 2 to 6 compared to the previous year, with brands like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture facing significant downturns for two consecutive years [1] Group 2: Sales Expenses - The total sales expenses for 19 listed liquor companies reached 45.87 billion yuan in the previous year, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, which outpaced revenue growth [2] - The median sales expense ratio rose from 16.26% to 19.1%, indicating a growing burden on companies [2] - Notably, Wu Liang Ye had the highest sales expenses at 10.692 billion yuan, followed by Gu Qing Gong Jiu and Kweichow Moutai [2] Group 3: Management Expenses - The total management expenses for listed liquor companies amounted to 22.85 billion yuan, slightly up from 22.66 billion yuan the previous year, with a median management expense ratio of 7.27% [3] - Eleven companies reported an increase in management expenses, while eight companies saw a decline [3] - Companies like Shanxi Fen Jiu, Shui Jing Fang, and Tian You De Jiu experienced management expense growth exceeding 10% [3] Group 4: Expense Ratios - Jiu Gui Jiu had the highest sales expense ratio at 42.94%, followed by Jin Zhong Zi Jiu at 31.84% and Gu Qing Gong Jiu at 26.22% [4] - Kweichow Moutai had the lowest sales expense ratio at 3.24%, indicating efficient cost management [4] - The management expense ratios for Tian You De Jiu, Jiu Gui Jiu, and Jin Zhong Zi Jiu exceeded 10%, while companies like Wu Liang Ye and Kweichow Moutai maintained lower ratios [4]

有9家酒企归母净利润低于10亿元，4家净利润低于1亿元。去年只有金种子酒一家酒企亏损，亏损金额 从上年的0.22亿元扩大到2.58亿元。 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 从上市公司层面来看，2024年酒企收入增速大幅放缓，收入下滑酒企数量从上年的2家增至6家。酒鬼酒 和顺鑫农业已经连续大幅下滑两年。 19家上市白酒公司归母净利润增长7.6% 贵州茅台一家占比达到52% 2024年19家上市白酒公司（剔除*ST岩石（维权）），总共实现归母净利润1668.48亿元，同比增长 7.6%。 贵州茅台去年净利润达到862.28亿元，占上市白酒净利润的近52%，提升了3.48个百分点。其次是五粮 液、泸州老窖和山西汾酒，归母净利润分别为318.5 ...

出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 从上市公司层面来看，2024年酒企收入增速大幅放缓，收入下滑酒企数量从上年的2家增至6家。酒鬼酒 和顺鑫农业已经连续大幅下滑两年。 3家酒企经营活动现金流净额转负 经营活动现金流是衡量上市公司核心盈利能力和财务健康度的关键指标，2024年3家酒企经营活动现金 流净额转负，分别为舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、金种子酒，比上年多了两家。 去年8家公司经营活动现金流净额同比增长，剔除皇台酒业之后，增速最快的是泸州老窖、山西汾酒、 口子窖。此外贵州茅台增长38.85%，也排在前列。 此外，伊力特、洋河股份、顺鑫农业、舍得酒业、金种子酒、酒鬼酒在收入下滑的情况下，存货仍在增 长。 | | | 2024年上市白酒公司存货、现金 ...