Core Insights - Hunan is a major liquor consumption province, with per capita liquor consumption nearly double the national average, and an annual sales scale of nearly 300 billion yuan [1] - The market share of local Hunan liquor brands is less than 30%, with only about 70 billion yuan in sales, which is inconsistent with its status as a major consumption province [1] - The "Three Flowers" of Hunan liquor, which were popular in the 1950s and 60s, have seen a decline in market presence [1] Industry Overview - As of 2024, Hunan has over 170 licensed liquor production companies, including 110 white liquor producers, with an annual production of approximately 50,000 to 60,000 kiloliters, ranking 13th to 15th nationally [3] - The major production areas for white liquor in Hunan are Xiangxi, Shaoyang, and Changde [3] Company Performance - Jiu Gui Jiu (酒鬼酒) reported a revenue of 1.423 billion yuan in the last year, with a net profit of 12.49 million yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 49.70% and 97.72% respectively [3] - Jiu Gui Jiu's revenue from Hunan was 642 million yuan, accounting for 45.11% of total revenue, while revenue from outside the province was 781 million yuan, making up 54.89% [3] - The high-end "Nei Can" series of Jiu Gui Jiu saw a revenue drop of 67.06%, with inventory reaching 1,395 tons, an increase of nearly 20% year-on-year [4] Competitive Landscape - Xiang Jiao Jiu (湘窖酒业) achieved a revenue of 7.07 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.5%, with a net profit of 1.68 billion yuan, up 3.3% [6] - Wu Ling Jiu (武陵酒) reported a revenue of 1.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.30%, making it the top brand in Hunan [9] - The overall market dynamics show a "three-legged" competition among Jiu Gui Jiu, Xiang Jiao Jiu, and Wu Ling Jiu, with other brands like Bai Sha Jiu Ye and De Shan Da Qu also gaining recognition [10]

Production Capacity and Inventory - The company's current production capacity is 15,000 tons, with an additional 7,800 tons expected after the completion of the Phase II project [2] - As of the end of 2024, the company's base liquor inventory stands at 46,769 tons [2] Strategic Focus and Market Positioning - The company is implementing a differentiation and focus strategy to navigate the dual adjustment period in the industry and internally [3] - The company aims to enhance its competitive edge through unique products, regional characteristics, and cultural aspects [3] - The company is focusing on the Hunan market and model markets, emphasizing core products [3] Financial Performance and Sales Strategy - In 2024, the company achieved revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan, with efforts to enhance sales quality and brand strength [3] - The company has seen a significant increase in terminal sales and consumer engagement, with distribution and sales rates exceeding 100% in 2024 [4] - The company plans to maintain a focus on high-quality sales and improve brand, product, channel, and system capabilities [4] Product Line and Market Adaptation - The company has reduced its SKU by 50% to eliminate low-efficiency products and is developing new products based on market demand [5] - The company is actively working to stabilize product prices through dynamic inventory management and targeted promotions [5] Distributor Management and Market Expansion - In 2024, the company reduced its number of distributors by over 400, focusing on improving distributor quality [5] - The company is expanding its presence in the small liquor market to cater to diverse consumer needs [6] Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - The company acknowledges the challenges posed by the current industry adjustment, which has intensified competition [6] - The company is committed to leveraging its unique advantages to establish itself as a differentiated premium liquor brand [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to enhance sales quality through a focus on brand, product, channel, and system capabilities for the year 2025 [2] Group 1: Brand Strategy - The company is building a differentiated barrier by focusing on "culture + production area" to enhance brand strength and highlight its unique characteristics [2] - The product value chain is being streamlined, with a strategic product matrix of "2+2+2" to upgrade its offerings [2] Group 2: Production Capacity - The company currently has a production capacity of 15,000 tons, with an additional 7,800 tons expected from the Phase II project of the production area [3] - As of the end of 2024, the company will have a base liquor inventory of 46,769 tons, ensuring high-quality products through the use of different aged base liquors [3] Group 3: Channel Development - The company is focusing on improving the quality of its distributors, with some low-efficiency distributors not having their contracts renewed [3] - The marketing model and expense reforms implemented from 2022 to 2024 have led to significant improvements in sales metrics, with consumer sales exceeding distributor purchases [3] Group 4: New Product Launch - The company launched the "Miao Pin" product in Hebei, targeting a price range of 300 to 400 yuan per bottle, with plans to expand to 30 cities nationwide [3] Group 5: System Efficiency - The company has begun to see results from its system construction, allowing for precise expense allocation and dynamic inventory management to stabilize product prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in performance, with a nearly halved revenue and a 67% drop in sales of its high-end brand, Neican [1][2] Group 1: Revenue and Sales Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 was 1.423 billion, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 50% [2] - The Neican brand, positioned as high-end, saw the largest decline in revenue, amounting to 235 million, which is a 67.06% decrease year-on-year [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Strategic Response - The decline in sales is attributed to a weak industry cycle, leading to a noticeable drop in overall demand for high-end liquor and increased competition from leading companies [1][2] - The company plans to maintain stable pricing for the Neican brand and does not aim for a significant increase in volume in the short term [2] Group 3: Future Strategies - In 2025, the company aims to enhance sales quality through improvements in brand strength, product strength, channel strength, and system strength [3] - The product strategy includes a "2+2+2" framework, focusing on two strategic products, two key products, and two basic products [3] Group 4: Marketing and Distribution Adjustments - The company has reduced its SKU by 50% to streamline product structure and eliminate low-efficiency products [4] - The company is implementing a BC linkage marketing model to improve market activity, with a focus on cost reform and enhancing the quality of distributors [4][5] - The number of distributors decreased by approximately 24.7% from 1,774 in 2023 to 1,336 in 2024, indicating a focus on improving distributor quality [4][5]

随着白酒产量的持续下滑，行业整体踏入存量竞争阶段。有白酒上市公司5月就公开表示：酒类消费供 需结构出现了转移和分化，酒类消费市场进入到存量期；舍得酒业（600702.SH）也在近期提及"行业挤 压式存量竞争不断加剧"。 国家统计局最新数据显示，2025年1-4月，全国规模以上企业白酒（折65度，商品量）产量130.8万千 升，同比下降7.8%。其中，4月产量28.1万千升，同比下降13.8%。 记者注意到，2016年以来，白酒产量逐年下滑。据国家统计局数据，我国白酒产量在2016年达到1358.4 万千升的高点，此后便开启逐年下滑模式，2024年我国白酒产量为414.5万千升。 一位白酒上市公司高管表示："行业调整短期会增加企业经营难度，导致行业竞争加剧，但对于行业健 康度提升也有积极作用。" 白酒产量逐年下滑，中小酒企"存量厮杀"加剧 国家统计局数据显示，2024年，全国规模以上企业累计白酒产量（折65度，商品量）414.5万千升,同比 下降1.8%；2024年12月,规模以上企业白酒（折65度）产量47.4万千升,同比下降7.6%。 来源于东莞证券研究所 这是白酒产量持续下滑的第八个年头。产量收缩的原因， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to enhance sales quality by focusing on brand strength, product strength, channel strength, and system strength in 2025, with a core strategy of "everything for high-quality sales" [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Strategy - The company has identified that government consumption currently represents a minimal portion of its product sales, indicating that related policies have a limited impact on the company [1]. - The company plans to implement a "2+2+2" strategic product system, which includes two strategic products, two key products, and two basic products, while reducing its SKU by 50% to eliminate low-performing products [1][3]. - The company is focusing on a full-chain layout to drive scale breakthroughs and enhance channel dynamics, with a target of establishing 24,000 effective core terminals [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The high-end liquor market is experiencing a significant decline in demand due to industry weakness, leading to increased competition and price pressure from leading companies [2]. - The company is actively developing small liquor products in response to strong market performance in Hunan [3]. - The company has seen a notable increase in both distribution and sales volumes since the implementation of the BC linkage marketing model, with both metrics exceeding 100% in 2024 [3][4]. Group 3: Product Development - The company is upgrading its "Neican" brand with the launch of the "Neican Jiachen" version, which is expected to support overall sales but will take time to establish [4]. - The company has streamlined its distributor network, focusing on improving the quality of distributors and discontinuing contracts with low-performing ones [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The management team is committed to enhancing consumer engagement through increased promotional spending and improving the product value chain, which has already shown positive results in terminal sales [4]. - The company emphasizes the importance of safety, efficiency, innovation, and competitiveness in its operations to drive improvements across all areas [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on dual goals of "stabilizing growth" and "improving quality" amidst a complex market environment, emphasizing high-quality development and operational efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Focus - The company aims to adhere to a quality-centric strategy, directing efforts towards lean management, intelligent production, and precise marketing to enhance market confidence [3]. - The company is implementing a comprehensive lean management approach across its operations to improve efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in energy consumption and production processes [4][6]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The company is optimizing energy procurement and production plans, which has led to significant reductions in energy consumption and waste, thereby enhancing its green manufacturing capabilities [4]. - A collaborative mechanism has been established to enhance lean awareness among all employees, ensuring that annual goals are broken down into specific tasks to improve internal operational efficiency [6]. Group 3: Growth Strategy - The company is accelerating technological innovation and production efficiency to build a differentiated competitive advantage, with a focus on market confidence through effective operations [7]. - The company has reported a 95% year-on-year increase in bottle scanning volume for 2024, indicating successful inventory reduction and market activity [7]. Group 4: Product Development - The company is leveraging cultural elements from its heritage to create unique product offerings, including new strategic products across various price ranges to strengthen its product matrix [8]. - Marketing initiatives are designed to connect with younger consumers through experiential consumption, enhancing brand recognition and consumer loyalty [8]. Group 5: Industry Context - The company is navigating a landscape of increasing industry concentration and consumer differentiation, utilizing management innovation and strategic depth to counter cost pressures and foster high-quality development [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a downward trend in liquor prices in major cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, with over two-thirds of products experiencing price declines [1][2][4] - In Guangzhou, the retail price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to an average of 2579.73 yuan per bottle, with some retailers offering it at around 2300 yuan, while other premium products like Wuliangye have seen a slight decrease of 18 yuan per bottle [2][3] - Shenzhen's market shows a similar trend, with over two-thirds of sampled products experiencing price drops, although some prices may be artificially inflated due to limited availability in certain channels [4][5] Group 2 - In Dongguan, nearly half of the sampled products maintained stable prices, with only 8 out of 21 products showing a decline, while the price of Luzhou Laojiao increased by 61.1 yuan to 1075.6 yuan per bottle due to replenished stock in certain channels [7][8] - The article notes that the upcoming 618 shopping festival has led to price adjustments on e-commerce platforms, with 15 out of 21 sampled premium liquors experiencing price reductions, while only one liquor saw an increase [9][10] - A comparison between the Bay Area and Southwest liquor prices reveals that the Bay Area's retail prices are significantly higher, with differences ranging from 15 to 82 yuan, attributed to higher demand for premium products in the region [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to OUTPERFORM [1][2]. Core Views - Jiugui Liquor is the only brand of Fuyu aromatic Baijiu and the leading brand in Hunan, with a complete product matrix including ultra-high-end, sub-high-end, and popular products [3][9]. - The company is currently in a performance adjustment period, with significant revenue and profit declines in 2023 and 2024, but shows signs of recovery in Q4 2024 [4][11]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product matrix in response to intensified competition in the sub-high-end Baijiu market [10][12]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to be Rmb 1.27 billion in 2025, with a net profit of Rmb 69 million, leading to an EPS of Rmb 0.21 [5][13]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 78.3% in 2025 to 88.3% by 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [8]. - The company’s market capitalization is Rmb 14 billion (approximately US$1.94 billion) with a target price set at Rmb 49.00 [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for key players in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing gradual pressure, with a focus on rational targets for 2025. The report emphasizes three main investment lines: leading brands with competitive advantages, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible stocks benefiting from recovery and increased risk appetite [1][2]. - The beer sector shows a slight decline in production, with a 0.6% year-on-year decrease in the first four months of 2025. However, there is potential for recovery in the upcoming peak season, suggesting a favorable investment window [3]. - The report highlights the broad recovery potential in the catering supply space, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved performance and market expansion strategies [4][7]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The industry consensus is shifting towards stable, high-quality growth with a focus on market share rather than aggressive growth targets. Key strategies include product innovation, market penetration, and international expansion [2]. - Major companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are focusing on maintaining market stability and enhancing their brand presence among younger consumers [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer production for January to April 2025 was 11.44 million kiloliters, reflecting a slight decline. However, April showed a 4.8% increase in production, indicating potential for recovery [3]. - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, but new product launches and recovery in consumer demand are expected to sustain high growth [3]. Catering Supply - The report notes significant opportunities for leading companies in the catering supply sector, particularly with the introduction of new products and expansion into new categories [4][7]. - Companies like Three Squirrels are diversifying their product lines and enhancing their distribution channels to capture more market share [7].