Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after a significant drop, with attention on the ongoing US-China trade dynamics and recession expectations in the US. The weekly performance showed US copper up 3.75%, London copper up 2.97%, and Shanghai copper down 4.6%. The decline in copper prices led to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper rod operating rates at 74.76%, up 0.21 percentage points week-on-week. Social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14.80% to 267,200 tons, while Shanghai copper inventory fell by 18.96% to 182,900 tons. Short-term price rebounds may be limited by US recession expectations, with key focus areas being US-China trade developments, US economic and inflation data, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] - Aluminum prices fell due to tariff impacts, with signs of weakening demand in the peak season and continued inventory depletion. The alumina market remains oversupplied, with prices dropping 5.12% to 2,870 RMB/ton. The operating capacity of alumina plants decreased by 1.91 million tons to 84.82 million tons/year. Electrolytic aluminum prices fell 3.72% to 19,675 RMB/ton, with profit margins down 15.54% to 3,650 RMB/ton. Overall, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum shows no increase in capacity, leading to a potential shortage this year, which could drive aluminum prices up significantly. Recommended stocks include Hongchuang Holdings, Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and China Aluminum [4] - Lithium prices continued to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton. The supply side remains oversupplied, with inventory increasing by 1.3% to 131,000 tons. Demand growth is hindered by tariff impacts on downstream exports, with expectations for a narrowing of the oversupply throughout the year. Recommended stocks include Yahua Group, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US March CPI was lower than expected at 2.4%, with initial jobless claims matching expectations at 223,000 [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - London copper rose 2.97%, while Shanghai copper fell 4.60%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 18.96% [21][24] 2.2. Aluminum - London aluminum increased by 0.50%, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 3.72%. The operating profit for aluminum companies fell by 15.54% [33] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell 0.57%, while Shanghai lead prices decreased by 2.44%. London zinc prices rose 0.34%, but Shanghai zinc prices fell 2.36% [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - London tin prices dropped 12.17%, and Shanghai tin prices fell 13.22%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton, with continued oversupply in the market [77] 3.2. Cobalt - Overseas MB cobalt prices increased by 0.16% to 15.88 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell [88]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by the Trump administration has significantly increased global trade costs, leading to a substantial adjustment in commodity prices. However, domestic demand resilience is expected to offset external risks and support industrial metal prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that the domestic manufacturing PMI for March remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, indicating strong internal demand that may cushion the impact of external pressures [2]. - Supply constraints in copper due to protests blocking access to key mining operations have exacerbated supply tightness, while domestic copper cable manufacturers have seen an increase in operating rates [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes significant price declines for industrial metals, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices changing by -6.37%, -11.18%, -6.37%, -5.49%, -10.73%, and -2.48% respectively [1][12]. - The SMM copper concentrate import index reported a decrease of 2.26 USD/ton, reflecting ongoing supply tightness due to protests affecting key mining routes [2][39]. - The report recommends companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Western Mining based on their performance and market conditions [2][5]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban, while lithium prices have seen a decline amid stable downstream demand [3][84]. - Nickel prices are projected to continue rising due to tight supply conditions, despite some fluctuations in demand from the stainless steel sector [3][56]. Precious Metals - The report expresses optimism for precious metal prices, particularly gold, which has seen a rise due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [4][67]. - Silver prices are under pressure in the short term but are expected to rebound once economic conditions stabilize [4][67]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with EPS estimates for 2024E to 2026E showing growth for companies like Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt, with PE ratios indicating favorable valuations [5][6].

Group 1: Company Strategy and Goals - The company's 2025 work theme focuses on "Standard Leading, Reform Empowering, Strengthening Resources, and Optimizing Assets" [1][2] - "Standard Leading" aims to enhance production, equipment, and management standardization to stabilize operations [2] - "Reform Empowering" involves deepening management reforms to improve efficiency through centralized management of various business functions [2] - "Strengthening Resources" emphasizes stabilizing self-mined ore volumes and acquiring exploration rights for bauxite resources in Yunnan and surrounding areas [2] - "Optimizing Assets" focuses on improving the industrial chain and increasing capital operations to enhance structural optimization [2] Group 2: Future Performance and Innovations - The company plans to leverage its green low-carbon competitive advantage to enhance the value chain of green aluminum and increase brand influence [2] - New technologies in the aluminum industry, such as zero-carbon anodes and high-purity aluminum, are expected to drive energy savings, cost reduction, and industry upgrades [2][3] - The company aims to increase its self-sufficiency in bauxite by intensifying development efforts in Yunnan and surrounding Southeast Asian countries [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Investor Relations - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend of approximately 7.98 million, with a projected total dividend of around 14.22 million for 2024, representing 32.23% of the net profit, the highest since its listing [3] - The company emphasizes a commitment to investor interests and plans to steadily increase dividend payouts in line with its operational performance [3] - The electricity supply in Yunnan has improved, with market reforms allowing for negotiated pricing between the company and local power producers [3]

Group 1 - In 2024, Yun Aluminum achieved operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.61%, marking the first time it surpassed 50 billion yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 4.412 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.52% [1] - The company reported an electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization rate close to 100% for 2025, indicating the best level in recent years [1] Group 2 - In 2024, the company produced 2.9383 million tons of primary aluminum, a year-on-year increase of 22.45%, with production lines operating at full capacity [1] - Yun Aluminum has established a green aluminum production capacity of 3.05 million tons, making it the largest green aluminum supplier in China [1] - The company plans to produce approximately 1.41 million tons of alumina, 3.01 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, 1.28 million tons of aluminum alloys and processed products, and 780,000 tons of carbon products in 2025 [1] Group 3 - The company benefits from Yunnan's abundant green resources, with over 85% of installed capacity coming from renewable energy sources [2] - Yun Aluminum is expected to receive quality asset injections due to its control by China Aluminum and indirect participation from Yunnan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [2] - The company is enhancing production efficiency through technological upgrades and stable operations of electrolytic cells, which is expected to improve capacity utilization [2]

Group 1 - The company achieved a revenue of 30.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, but net profit increased by 622% to 0.7 billion yuan, driven by revenue structure optimization and cost reductions from AI-enabled efficiency improvements [4][5] - The payment business showed marginal improvement with a revenue decline of 22.9% to 26.9 billion yuan, attributed to a 19% drop in total GPV and a slight decrease in payment rates [5][6] - The company’s overseas payment business expanded significantly, with transaction volume exceeding 1.1 billion yuan, a nearly fivefold increase year-on-year [5] Group 2 - The company reported a revenue of 31.48 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17.2%, with a net profit of 2.34 billion yuan, down 68.98% [11][12] - The domestic acquiring business processed a total of 1.47 trillion yuan, maintaining stable monthly transaction volumes, while overseas market revenue reached 9.01 billion yuan, with a 63.61% increase in high-end market revenue [13][14] - The company’s AI digital employee product has been commercialized, with applications in digital marketing and e-commerce [15] Group 3 - China Aluminum reported a revenue of 237.07 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 5.2%, and a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.4% [16][17] - The increase in profits was primarily due to rising aluminum and alumina prices, with alumina revenue reaching 74 billion yuan, a 38.3% increase [18] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.135 yuan per share, with a total dividend amount of 3.72 billion yuan, reflecting a payout ratio of 30.2% [20] Group 4 - Three Squirrels reported a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%, with a net profit of 408 million yuan, up 85.51% [22][23] - The company’s online revenue reached 7.407 billion yuan, with significant growth in various channels, particularly Douyin [23][24] - The company is planning to issue H shares to enhance its brand and global supply chain capabilities [25][26] Group 5 - Kailai Ying reported total revenue of 5.805 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 25.82%, with a net profit of 949 million yuan, down 58.17% [27][28] - The small molecule business showed stable growth, with revenue of 4.571 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.85% increase when excluding large orders [28][29] - The emerging business segment achieved revenue of 1.226 billion yuan, a growth of 2.25% [29] Group 6 - Zhejiang Shuju reported a revenue of 3.097 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.61%, with a net profit of 512 million yuan, down 22.84% [30][31] - The online gaming business generated 1.34 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 91.04% [33] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.60 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 203 million yuan [32] Group 7 - Zhongke Xingtou focuses on the space-earth big data industry, with a projected revenue of 40.78 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 63.98 billion yuan by 2027 [38][41] - The company has established a comprehensive digital earth solution, integrating data collection, processing, and application [39][40] - The company aims to expand its business into low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace sectors [40] Group 8 - Yinghe Technology reported a revenue of 8.524 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 12.58%, with a net profit of 503 million yuan, down 9.14% [43][44] - The lithium battery equipment segment faced challenges, while the electronic cigarette segment showed strong performance with a revenue of 3.191 billion yuan [44][45] - The company expects growth in the lithium battery equipment market due to domestic production recovery and expansion into overseas markets [45][46] Group 9 - Meiya Optoelectronics achieved a revenue of 2.311 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.7%, with a net profit of 649 million yuan, down 12.8% [48] - The color sorting machine business grew by 9.9%, while the medical equipment segment faced a decline of 33.4% [49] - The company anticipates a recovery in the medical equipment sector due to ongoing economic development and demographic trends [49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the impairment impact on Q4 2024 performance is expected to recover in 2025, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit year-on-year [2][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 54.45 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.6%, and a net profit of 4.41 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The report indicates that the decline in Q4 2024 net profit was primarily due to a significant increase in alumina prices and a provision for impairment losses of 330 million yuan [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for 2025-2027 projects revenues of 57.73 billion yuan, 60.02 billion yuan, and 61.81 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.51 billion yuan, 8.62 billion yuan, and 9.36 billion yuan [8][9] - The expected growth rates for revenue are 6%, 4%, and 3% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while net profit is expected to grow by 70%, 15%, and 9% in the same years [8][9] Production and Pricing Insights - The company reported an aluminum production of 2.9383 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.45%, while alumina production decreased by 1.37% [6] - The average price of alumina increased significantly in Q4 2024, impacting the company's performance despite rising aluminum prices [6] Dividend Information - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.18 yuan per share, leading to a total cash dividend of 0.41 yuan per share for the year, with a total payout of 1.422 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 32.2% [6]

原铝产量有望进一步抬升，绿色价值独具优势 2024 年全年公司实现营业收入544.5 亿元，同比+27.6%，归母净利润44.12 亿元，同比+11.5%；2024Q4 公司实现营业收入152.6 亿元，同比+18.3%，环比+5.0%，实现归母净利润5.9 亿元，同比-59.2%，环 比-54.5%；主要系四季度氧化铝价格大幅上涨叠加公司进行充分资产减值所致。考虑到2025 年氧化铝 价格大幅下跌我们新增2027 年业绩预测并调整2025~2026 年业绩预测，预计2025~2027 年公司实现归母 净利润68.9、83.5、97.8 亿元（此前预计2025~2026 年分别为56.53、58.52 亿元），同比分别变动 +56.2%、+21.1%、+17.1%，EPS 分别为1.99、2.41、2.82 元/股，对应2025 年3 月28 日收盘价PE 分别为 8.9、7.3、6.3 倍，公司绿色铝α属性凸显，维持"买入"评级。 公司2024Q4 业绩承压，2025 年量增本降业绩弹性有望充分释放 2024Q4 氧化铝均价约5318.0 元/吨，同比+77.0%，环比+35.0%，叠加四季度计提资产减值和 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's primary aluminum production is expected to increase further, highlighting its unique green value proposition [1][4] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 54.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.41 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [4][5] - The report anticipates a significant drop in alumina prices in 2025, leading to revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 6.89 billion, 8.35 billion, and 9.78 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of +56.2%, +21.1%, and +17.1% [4][5] - The company's green aluminum production, which utilizes approximately 80% green electricity, results in carbon emissions that are only 20% of those from coal-powered aluminum production, emphasizing its competitive edge in the carbon market [6] Financial Summary - In 2024 Q4, the average price of alumina was approximately 5,318.0 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 77.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.0% [5] - The company's self-sufficiency rate for alumina in 2024 was about 25%, with expectations for increased aluminum production in 2025 due to abundant power supply in Yunnan [5] - The financial projections indicate a revenue of 55.66 billion yuan for 2025, with a gross margin of 19.7% and a net margin of 12.4% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.99 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.9 times based on the closing price on March 28, 2025 [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.61%. The total profit reached 5.972 billion yuan, an increase of 7.74% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.412 billion yuan, up 11.52% year-on-year [7] - The production of electrolytic aluminum saw a significant increase, with a total output of 2.9383 million tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 22.45%, setting a historical high for the company [7] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in 2024 was approximately 19,921.61 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 6.5%, contributing to the company's performance improvement [7] - The company anticipates continued growth in electrolytic aluminum production in 2025, with production targets set at approximately 3.01 million tons for electrolytic aluminum and 1.41 million tons for alumina [7] - The report forecasts total operating revenues of 57.4 billion yuan, 58.78 billion yuan, and 60.38 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 6.8 billion yuan, 7.3 billion yuan, and 8.07 billion yuan for the same years [7] Financial Data Summary - The company reported a total market capitalization of 60.24 billion yuan and a total asset value of 41.90 billion yuan [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.27 yuan, with expectations to rise to 1.96 yuan in 2025 and 2.11 yuan in 2026 [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2024 to 19.8% by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.61%. The total profit reached 5.972 billion yuan, up 7.74% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.412 billion yuan, an increase of 11.52% year-on-year [7] - The production of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly, with a historical high of 2.9383 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 22.45%. The average price of electrolytic aluminum in 2024 was approximately 19,921.61 yuan per ton, up about 6.5% from 2023 [7] - The company is expected to continue its upward production trend in 2025, with production targets set at approximately 3.01 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 141,000 tons of alumina [7] - The decline in alumina costs is anticipated to enhance electrolytic aluminum profits, with the average price of alumina as of March 25, 2025, being 3,160.00 yuan per ton, down about 43.6% from the beginning of the year [7] - The company forecasts total operating revenues of 57.4 billion yuan, 58.8 billion yuan, and 60.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 6.8 billion yuan, 7.3 billion yuan, and 8.0 billion yuan for the same years [7] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 3,467.96 million shares [6] - Market capitalization: 60,238.42 million yuan [6] - Revenue forecast for 2024: 54,450 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.6% [8] - Net profit forecast for 2024: 4,412 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024: 1.27 yuan [8] - Gross margin for 2024: 13.2% [8] - Return on equity (ROE) for 2024: 15.6% [8]