Core Viewpoint - The consumption ETF (159928) shows a strong rebound with a net subscription of 156 million units, indicating robust investor interest in the consumer sector as the "super golden week" approaches, driven by increased travel and spending intentions [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The major consumption index (000932) increased by 0.63%, with notable gains in stocks such as Yangyuan Beverage (603156) up 8.71%, Luzhou Laojiao (000568) up 4.16%, and Gujing Gongjiu (000596) up 3.42% [3]. - The top ten component stocks of the consumption ETF account for over 68% of the index, with four leading liquor stocks making up 32% and major consumer staples like Yili (9.56%) and Moutai (8.68%) also contributing significantly [7][8]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - The upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays are expected to boost consumer spending, with online travel platforms reporting a significant increase in travel bookings, particularly for interprovincial and outbound travel [5]. - The liquor market is experiencing a cautious inventory buildup, with traditional sales channels under pressure, while new retail formats like live streaming and instant retail are showing rapid growth [5]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Leading liquor companies are actively responding to market conditions, with Moutai initiating market research and price stabilization efforts, while Wuliangye is addressing pricing issues through dealer meetings [5]. - The food and beverage sector is seeing policy-driven catalysts, particularly in the prepared food segment, which may benefit leading brands through increased market share [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8][56]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is expected to face pressure during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival due to cautious inventory stocking and a significant impact on group purchasing channels. However, traditional channels like instant retail and live streaming are experiencing rapid growth, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [6][54]. - The report highlights opportunities in high-growth segments such as prepared dishes and snacks, driven by policy support and market expansion. The introduction of national standards for prepared dishes is expected to benefit leading companies in the sector [7][55]. - The beverage sector is approaching peak season, with a focus on new consumer opportunities and retail channel transformations. Companies like "Naixue's Tea" and "Chabaidao" are highlighted for their growth potential [8][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly News Summary - Industry news includes the selection of five liquor companies for the Zhejiang Province Industrial Heritage list and a 1.7% growth in Guizhou's liquor and tea manufacturing from January to August [6][20]. - Company news features Guizhou Moutai's investment in a biotechnology company and the launch of "Longma Liquor" by Langjiu [6][21]. 2. Key Company Feedback - The report provides insights into the performance of key companies in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on stock price movements and market trends [32][34]. - The white liquor industry saw a cumulative production of 4.145 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.72%, while revenue reached 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% [36][38]. 3. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the white liquor sector such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks like JiuGui Jiu and SheDe JiuYe [6][54]. - In the snack sector, companies like Wancheng Group and Anjiu Food are recommended due to their market positioning and growth potential [7][55]. 4. Key Company and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with their respective stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and investment ratings, all indicating a "Buy" recommendation [10][25]. - Notable companies include Guizhou Moutai with a stock price of 1435.00 yuan and an EPS of 68.64 for 2024, and Wuliangye with a stock price of 120.17 yuan and an EPS of 8.21 for 2024 [10][25].

21世纪经济报道肖夏 综合报道 白酒旺季终于回归，形势依旧分化——一边是名酒价格回升，另一边整体行情依旧下行；动销回暖的同 时，全行业产量还在继续收缩。 中秋国庆旺季临近 茅台、五粮液等名酒动销回暖 距离国庆中秋长假仅有几天，名酒的动销持续回暖。 9月25日、26日开始，多个酒价平台数据报出的飞天茅台价格集体上涨，28日有酒价平台显示，飞天茅 台的报价单日上涨了30元。 21世纪经济报道记者上周在重庆也走访了多类终端，普遍反馈飞天茅台的动销近期回暖，报价多在1900 元至2000元区间，且上周末报价在此前已经上涨的基础上再度上涨。 此前贵州茅台官方公众号发文称，9月25日茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉率队深入青海市场一线调 研，并在西宁组织召开青甘新藏四省区贵州茅台酒市场营销座谈会。会上透露，9月以来，贵州茅台酒 终端动销增长表现更加显著，环比增长约1倍，同比增长超20%。茅台方面认为，这一系列积极变化， 既显示出消费端节日需求增长，也充分体现了面对行业周期调整，茅台酒"4+6"渠道体系所展现出的渠 道良好韧性。 市场上也传出了五粮液价格大幅回涨的消息。21世纪经济报道记者走访的终端普遍反馈，五粮液是近期 动 ...

转自：新华财经 9月27日，2025年全国职工半程马拉松赛在宁夏银川正式拉开序幕。五粮液作为"顶级合作伙伴"积极参与本次活动，以"美酒+体育"的跨界创新，赋能品牌文化叙事，融入健康中国行动，为夯实 2025年全国职工半程马拉松赛是中华全国总工会指导的国家级职工体育盛事，共设置半程马拉松、特色方阵领先跑和健康跑三个项目，满足不同跑步爱好者的需求，旨在弘扬劳模精神、劳动精 据了解，五粮液以"和美文化+健康中国"为主线，品牌元素贯穿赛事各环节，为参赛选手献上和美祝福，全方位展示品牌形象。在现场的赛事博览会精心设置五粮液文化体验馆，通过29°五粮液 业内人士指出，五粮液通过与国家级职工体育赛事的战略合作，不仅传递了支持全民健身、关爱职工健康、助力体育强国的积极信号，更以"美酒+体育"的创新模式，在与广大职工和马拉松爱好 体育和美酒是人类共同的情感纽带。五粮液始终秉持的"精益求精"的工匠精神、"和合共生，美美与共"的和美文化内涵，与体育运动蕴含的拼搏奋进、超越自我、包容共享的精神内核不谋而合 五粮液相关负责人表示，将继续作为"高品质生活"方式的倡导者与共建者，坚定支持健康中国与体育强国建设，以"和美"文化为魂，以体育为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage ETF Tianhong (159736) has shown significant market activity, with a notable inflow of funds and rising stock prices among key components, indicating a positive trend in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Tianhong food and beverage ETF (159736) experienced a slight decline of 0.28% as of the latest report, with a premium rate of 0.04% and frequent premium trading observed [1]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of nearly 170 million yuan over the past nine trading days, with a total circulation of 7.62 billion shares, reaching a historical high [2]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Key component stocks such as Yangyuan Beverage, Gujing Gongjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others have shown price increases, with Yangyuan Beverage rising over 4% [2]. - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, which includes major stocks from the beverage, packaged food, and meat industries, featuring top holdings like Kweichow Moutai, Yili, and Wuliangye [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - Reports indicate a significant increase in the prices of premium liquor, with notable price hikes for products like Feitian Moutai and other well-known brands over a short period [3]. - The liquor market is experiencing a surge in demand, particularly in the mid-range price segment (50-200 yuan), with increased sales reported across various regions [3]. - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to boost tourism and consumer spending, with a projected 130% increase in travel compared to the previous year, indicating a potential for strong sales in the food and beverage sector [4].

Industry Environment - The white liquor industry is shifting its endorsement strategy from middle-aged male celebrities to younger, diverse stars like G.E.M. and Zhang Yixing, reflecting a trend towards a more youthful and lifestyle-oriented brand image [2][3] - The light bottle liquor market is experiencing a bifurcation, with traditional brands like Niulanshan facing significant revenue declines due to price competition, while high-quality products like Fenjiu's Guofen are in high demand, indicating a shift towards quality and brand strength in the market [4][5] - The upcoming 2025 China Open tennis tournament will feature enhanced spectator experiences and cultural integration, with Luzhou Laojiao as the exclusive partner, promoting Chinese liquor culture [5] - The high-end beer market is undergoing significant changes, with CR Beer surpassing Budweiser APAC in revenue, indicating the rise of local brands in the premium segment despite overall market contraction [6] - The banquet market is emerging as a new battleground for liquor companies, with several firms reporting double-digit growth in this segment as they adapt to changing consumer preferences [7] - Eight listed liquor companies reported direct sales revenue exceeding 640 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with Moutai and Wuliangye leading the market [8] - The past decade has seen significant changes in the regional liquor market, with notable growth among regional leaders while others struggle due to strategic missteps [9] Key Trends - The trend towards lower alcohol content in liquor is gaining traction, with companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao launching lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers, and the low-alcohol market expected to grow significantly [11] - Regional liquor companies are leveraging local sports events for marketing, enhancing brand connection with consumers, although the effectiveness of such strategies remains to be seen [12] - The first China Liquor Market Prosperity Index was released, indicating a favorable outlook for online sales and low-alcohol products driving consumption [10] Company Dynamics - Songhe Liquor is upgrading its quality strategy with a commitment to long-term aging processes, aiming to enhance its market position [13] - The launch of "Dazhen·Zhenjiu" has seen strong initial sales, indicating a successful entry into the high-end liquor market through strategic partnerships and pricing control [14] - Gujing Gongjiu is integrating cultural elements into consumer experiences, showcasing the importance of cultural heritage in modern marketing strategies [15] - The "Jiuxiao Er" brand is focusing on immediate retail and digital transformation to enhance consumer engagement and market presence [14][19] - Yanghe's summer marketing campaign successfully connected the brand with consumer experiences through sports and cultural events, emphasizing the importance of experiential marketing [20] Emerging Opportunities - The introduction of herbal yellow wine "Bencao Bang" targets health-conscious consumers, indicating a trend towards health-oriented products in the liquor market [21] - A strategic partnership between Huajun Media and Bojiangfang aims to reshape the market for sauce-flavored liquor through quality certification and consumer engagement [22] - The launch of UMEET blueberry distilled liquor exemplifies the industry's shift towards catering to younger, health-conscious consumers with innovative products [24]

Industry Dynamics - Eight liquor companies made it to the list of China's top 500 manufacturing enterprises, including Sichuan Yibin Wuliangye Group, Guizhou Moutai, and Luzhou Laojiao [2] - The grape harvest season in the Helan Mountain East region started in mid-August and is expected to last until early October, with an estimated 130,000 tons of wine grapes to be harvested this year [3] - The "Moutai Cup" Chinese (Sauce Aroma) Baijiu Body Design Competition was held, with participants from 11 provinces, and a contestant from Guizhou Moutai winning first place [3] - The first China (Qionglai) Spirits Competition was launched, aiming to enhance the international brand recognition of Qionglai liquor [3] - The 2025 China International Huangjiu Industry Expo is scheduled for November 7-12 in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, featuring six exhibition areas and multiple related events [4] Company Dynamics - Wuliangye's chairman emphasized focusing on five strategies to enhance market presence and consumer engagement during a recent market research tour [5] - Moutai reported a 20% year-on-year increase in terminal sales for September, indicating a positive market trend [5] - Langjiu launched its flagship product "Longma Lang," which combines strong and sauce aroma techniques, as part of its ongoing product strategy [5] - The eighth "Four Famous Baijiu Cup" basketball invitation tournament concluded, with the Shaanxi team winning the championship [6] - Tianyoude Liquor, the only listed company in Qinghai's liquor industry, is focusing on local特色 and has developed a tourist attraction that has become popular among visitors [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector, particularly for high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a left-side configuration opportunity in the white liquor segment [3][12][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the core products in the liquor industry, such as Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye, have seen a rebound in wholesale prices, attributed to effective channel management by manufacturers [2][12]. - It is anticipated that the sales volume in the white liquor sector will decline by approximately 20% year-on-year, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the increasing diversification of purchasing channels for liquor, with a notable shift towards online and new media platforms, which is reshaping consumer behavior [2][12][14]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The report notes a recovery in the wholesale prices of key products, driven by improved channel management and a positive reception during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2][12]. - It suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a phase where inventory levels can be significantly reduced, leading to a temporary release of price pressure [12][14]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end brands with strong market positions and exploring potential catalysts in the broader liquor market [3][12][14]. Beer - The beer sector is experiencing steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-draft channels and soft drinks [14]. - The report encourages continued attention to the beer sector due to its solid performance and dividend levels [3][14]. Yellow Wine - The yellow wine industry is seeing price increases among leading brands, which may lead to a more stable competitive landscape [14]. - The report highlights the importance of marketing and product innovation in the yellow wine sector as it approaches peak season [14]. Snacks - The snack industry is maintaining high growth, with new retail channels expanding rapidly and product diversity increasing [4][15]. - The report suggests that the upcoming holiday season will boost demand for snack products, particularly nut gift boxes [4][15]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is nearing the end of its peak season, with segments like energy drinks and sugar-free teas showing strong growth [4][16]. - The report indicates that traditional categories are facing challenges, but health-oriented products are performing well [4][16]. Condiments - The condiment sector is stabilizing, with expectations of demand recovery in the restaurant chain segment [5][17]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages and improving profit margins [5][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while recommending an increase in holdings for companies like Yingjia Grape Wine and Kuaijie Wine [8][33]. Core Insights - The demand gap remains significant, with a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, despite a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - The report highlights a continued "Matthew Effect," where leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gaining market share at the expense of lower-tier competitors [2][8]. - The recovery of high-end liquor sales is slow, with a notable increase in demand for mid-range and low-end products, particularly in banquet settings [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales Feedback for the Holiday Season - Sales performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was generally flat, with a 20% decline compared to the previous year, although there was a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - Mid-range and low-end liquor sales outperformed high-end products, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines [2][12]. 2. Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are on track, with a completion rate of approximately 75% for the year, and inventory levels are stable at 0.5-1 month [26][31]. - Wuliangye's sales completion rate is around 70%, with inventory levels between 1-2 months, and recent promotional efforts have improved dealer confidence [26][31]. - Shanxi Fenjiu maintains a completion rate of 75%-80%, with stable inventory levels and a strong market presence for its products [27][31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are showing resilience and potential for recovery, particularly those that have adjusted their strategies ahead of the market, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [32][33]. - The anticipated recovery in demand for white liquor is expected to be supported by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased profitability for companies in the sector [4][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that leading liquor brands are actively responding to the upcoming peak sales season during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with signs of marginal improvement in sales after a prolonged bottoming period in Q2 [2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, the departure of the CFO of China Resources Beer is noted, alongside the continuous introduction of new products in the beverage industry, reflecting a competitive landscape [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth companies in the consumer goods sector, particularly those benefiting from policy support or recovery improvements [4]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report indicates that terminal demand for liquor has shown signs of recovery, with sales in September increasing by 15%-25% month-on-month, although year-on-year figures remain slightly down [2]. - Leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are taking proactive measures to stabilize prices and enhance market strategies ahead of the peak sales season [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The report notes the resignation of the CFO of China Resources Beer and suggests monitoring the recovery of the restaurant sector and sales structure performance [3]. - New product launches in the beverage sector are highlighted, catering to consumer demand for natural and additive-free drinks [3]. Food Sector - The report mentions that Wanchen Group has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with plans to expand its store network and enhance digital capabilities [4]. - The upcoming holiday season is expected to drive demand for dairy products and mooncakes, leading to a temporary surge in sales [4].