Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is lackluster, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 20% despite a month-on-month improvement from July to August [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor sales during the 2025 double festival are reported to be flat, with a significant demand gap remaining, particularly in the high-end and sub-high-end segments [1][4]. - The mid-to-low-end liquor sales are performing better than high-end and sub-high-end products, with banquet brands showing faster sales velocity [1][3]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines, while Fenjiu maintains upward momentum with stable pricing [1][3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The recovery of government and business consumption demand is expected to take time, impacting high-end and sub-high-end liquor consumption in the short term [2][4]. - Attention should be focused on supply-side contraction signals from companies post-festival, which could catalyze the sector [2][4]. - Price indicators are anticipated to turn positive in 2026, potentially driving inflation and corporate profitability, leading to a sustained recovery in liquor demand [1][4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies that are relatively healthy and have a positive market atmosphere, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye [4]. - Companies that are innovating in channels and models, like Yingjia Gongjiu and Zhenjiu Lidu, are also highlighted as potential growth contributors [4].

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a rise of 1.86% on September 29, with Huangtai Liquor leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Liquor Sector Performance - Notable gainers in the liquor sector included: - Qingdao Wenzhou: Closed at 14.90, up 5.45% with a trading volume of 171,200 shares and a turnover of 252 million yuan - Overseas Laojiao: Closed at 133.06, up 4.30% with a trading volume of 160,200 shares and a turnover of 2.104 billion yuan - Gujing Gongjiu: Closed at 160.21, up 3.88% with a trading volume of 37,600 shares and a turnover of 596 million yuan - Other notable stocks included Shede Liquor, Jinhui Liquor, and Kweichow Moutai, with respective increases of 2.04%, 1.84%, and 1.80% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 650 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 116 million yuan [2] - The main capital flow for key stocks included: - Kweichow Moutai: Net inflow of 5.16 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 5.16 million yuan from retail investors - Luzhou Laojiao: Net inflow of 75.6 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 166 million yuan from retail investors - Wuliangye: Net inflow of 72.6 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 127 million yuan from retail investors [3]

业内人士指出，五粮液通过与国家级职工体育赛事的战略合作，不仅传递了支持全民健身、关爱职工健康、助力体育强国的积极信号，更以"美酒+体育"的 创新模式，在与广大职工和马拉松爱好者的深度互动中，深化品牌认同，构建起品牌场景化、内容化、价值化的全新叙事范式。 9月27日，2025年全国职工半程马拉松赛在宁夏银川正式拉开序幕。五粮液作为"顶级合作伙伴"积极参与本次活动，以"美酒+体育"的跨界创新，赋能品牌文 化叙事，融入健康中国行动，为夯实国民健康基石注入和美力量。 2025年全国职工半程马拉松赛是中华全国总工会指导的国家级职工体育盛事，共设置半程马拉松、特色方阵领先跑和健康跑三个项目，满足不同跑步爱好者 的需求，旨在弘扬劳模精神、劳动精神、工匠精神，展现新时代职工昂扬向上的精神风貌，倡导"快乐工作 健康生活"理念。本次赛事共计三场，首场在宁 夏银川举行。 据了解，五粮液以"和美文化+健康中国"为主线，品牌元素贯穿赛事各环节，为参赛选手献上和美祝福，全方位展示品牌形象。在现场的赛事博览会精心设 置五粮液文化体验馆，通过29°五粮液·一见倾心等新品品鉴、五粮液酒酿造工艺等非遗展示等互动活动，展示五粮液的匠心品质、深厚内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline of the real estate industry in China has significantly impacted the high-end liquor market, leading to a need for transformation and new consumption drivers in the liquor sector [1][4][7]. Group 1: Real Estate and Liquor Industry Interconnection - The real estate sector's growth has historically driven the high-end liquor market, with a notable increase in business-related consumption [2][4]. - From 2004 to 2013, real estate investment surged over 520%, while the liquor industry experienced a "golden decade" with production up 293%, revenue up 719%, and profits soaring 1272% [5]. - The collapse of major real estate companies like Evergrande and the subsequent economic downturn have led to a significant decline in the liquor industry, which is now facing intense competition and adjustment [7][8]. Group 2: Current State of the Liquor Industry - As of early 2025, the number of large-scale liquor enterprises has decreased to 887, with a slight revenue increase of 0.19% but a significant profit drop of 10.93% [8]. - Major liquor companies have initiated strategic transformations, focusing on new consumer demographics, international markets, and affordable product lines to adapt to changing market conditions [10][11][12]. Group 3: Strategic Transformations in the Liquor Industry - Companies like Moutai are targeting new consumer groups in emerging industries and enhancing personalized service offerings [10]. - The liquor industry is also expanding its international presence, with initiatives aimed at promoting Chinese liquor globally [10]. - There is a growing emphasis on affordable products, with several brands launching new offerings to capture the mass market [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - Despite initial successes in transformation, the liquor industry faces ongoing challenges, including the need to find new consumption drivers to replace the real estate sector [14]. - The export market for Chinese liquor is still in its infancy, and the profitability of mass-market products lags behind that of premium offerings [14].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant rally on September 29, with the Food ETF (515710) reaching an intraday price increase of up to 1.3% before settling at a 0.98% gain [1][3] - Key stocks in the sector showed strong performance, with Yangyuan Beverage soaring over 7%, and major liquor brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongji rising over 3% [1][3] - The Food ETF (515710) has seen substantial net inflows, with a total of 55.71 million yuan in net subscriptions over the last five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 2 - Sales of popular gift items such as liquor and mooncakes surged ahead of the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with liquor sales on Meituan increasing approximately eightfold year-on-year [3][4] - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is considered low, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.21, placing it in the lower 5.88% percentile over the past decade, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [3][4] - Analysts predict a recovery in the liquor sector due to government policies promoting high-quality development, with expectations for Maotai's prices to rebound as market conditions improve [4][5] Group 3 - The food and beverage industry is witnessing significant policy catalysts, such as the upcoming public consultation on the national standards for prepared food safety, which may benefit leading brands [4][5] - The Food ETF (515710) is strategically positioned, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in other beverage and food segments [5] - Investors can also access core assets in the food and beverage sector through the Food ETF linked funds [5]

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye's net profit for H1 2025 reached 19.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.28%, while Q2 2025 net profit was 4.632 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.58% [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Wuliangye's sales gross margin decreased by 0.53 percentage points to 76.83%, and in Q2 2025, it decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 74.69% [1] - The company experienced stable growth in the opening rate of its 1618 and 39-degree Wuliangye products, contributing to an increase in product sales [1] Market Dynamics - The number of banquet events and the opening of bottles via QR codes in the first half of the year maintained a double-digit growth year-on-year [1] - As the liquor industry enters an adjustment period, Wuliangye's brand strength is becoming more prominent [1] Investment Outlook - Given the mid-year performance and the relatively slow recovery of high-end liquor demand, the profit forecast has been adjusted, but the "buy" rating is maintained [1]

Core Viewpoint - The consumption ETF (159928) shows a strong rebound with a net subscription of 156 million units, indicating robust investor interest in the consumer sector as the "super golden week" approaches, driven by increased travel and spending intentions [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The major consumption index (000932) increased by 0.63%, with notable gains in stocks such as Yangyuan Beverage (603156) up 8.71%, Luzhou Laojiao (000568) up 4.16%, and Gujing Gongjiu (000596) up 3.42% [3]. - The top ten component stocks of the consumption ETF account for over 68% of the index, with four leading liquor stocks making up 32% and major consumer staples like Yili (9.56%) and Moutai (8.68%) also contributing significantly [7][8]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - The upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays are expected to boost consumer spending, with online travel platforms reporting a significant increase in travel bookings, particularly for interprovincial and outbound travel [5]. - The liquor market is experiencing a cautious inventory buildup, with traditional sales channels under pressure, while new retail formats like live streaming and instant retail are showing rapid growth [5]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Leading liquor companies are actively responding to market conditions, with Moutai initiating market research and price stabilization efforts, while Wuliangye is addressing pricing issues through dealer meetings [5]. - The food and beverage sector is seeing policy-driven catalysts, particularly in the prepared food segment, which may benefit leading brands through increased market share [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8][56]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is expected to face pressure during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival due to cautious inventory stocking and a significant impact on group purchasing channels. However, traditional channels like instant retail and live streaming are experiencing rapid growth, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [6][54]. - The report highlights opportunities in high-growth segments such as prepared dishes and snacks, driven by policy support and market expansion. The introduction of national standards for prepared dishes is expected to benefit leading companies in the sector [7][55]. - The beverage sector is approaching peak season, with a focus on new consumer opportunities and retail channel transformations. Companies like "Naixue's Tea" and "Chabaidao" are highlighted for their growth potential [8][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly News Summary - Industry news includes the selection of five liquor companies for the Zhejiang Province Industrial Heritage list and a 1.7% growth in Guizhou's liquor and tea manufacturing from January to August [6][20]. - Company news features Guizhou Moutai's investment in a biotechnology company and the launch of "Longma Liquor" by Langjiu [6][21]. 2. Key Company Feedback - The report provides insights into the performance of key companies in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on stock price movements and market trends [32][34]. - The white liquor industry saw a cumulative production of 4.145 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.72%, while revenue reached 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% [36][38]. 3. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the white liquor sector such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks like JiuGui Jiu and SheDe JiuYe [6][54]. - In the snack sector, companies like Wancheng Group and Anjiu Food are recommended due to their market positioning and growth potential [7][55]. 4. Key Company and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with their respective stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and investment ratings, all indicating a "Buy" recommendation [10][25]. - Notable companies include Guizhou Moutai with a stock price of 1435.00 yuan and an EPS of 68.64 for 2024, and Wuliangye with a stock price of 120.17 yuan and an EPS of 8.21 for 2024 [10][25].

21世纪经济报道肖夏 综合报道 白酒旺季终于回归，形势依旧分化——一边是名酒价格回升，另一边整体行情依旧下行；动销回暖的同 时，全行业产量还在继续收缩。 中秋国庆旺季临近 茅台、五粮液等名酒动销回暖 距离国庆中秋长假仅有几天，名酒的动销持续回暖。 9月25日、26日开始，多个酒价平台数据报出的飞天茅台价格集体上涨，28日有酒价平台显示，飞天茅 台的报价单日上涨了30元。 21世纪经济报道记者上周在重庆也走访了多类终端，普遍反馈飞天茅台的动销近期回暖，报价多在1900 元至2000元区间，且上周末报价在此前已经上涨的基础上再度上涨。 此前贵州茅台官方公众号发文称，9月25日茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉率队深入青海市场一线调 研，并在西宁组织召开青甘新藏四省区贵州茅台酒市场营销座谈会。会上透露，9月以来，贵州茅台酒 终端动销增长表现更加显著，环比增长约1倍，同比增长超20%。茅台方面认为，这一系列积极变化， 既显示出消费端节日需求增长，也充分体现了面对行业周期调整，茅台酒"4+6"渠道体系所展现出的渠 道良好韧性。 市场上也传出了五粮液价格大幅回涨的消息。21世纪经济报道记者走访的终端普遍反馈，五粮液是近期 动 ...

转自：新华财经 9月27日，2025年全国职工半程马拉松赛在宁夏银川正式拉开序幕。五粮液作为"顶级合作伙伴"积极参与本次活动，以"美酒+体育"的跨界创新，赋能品牌文化叙事，融入健康中国行动，为夯实 2025年全国职工半程马拉松赛是中华全国总工会指导的国家级职工体育盛事，共设置半程马拉松、特色方阵领先跑和健康跑三个项目，满足不同跑步爱好者的需求，旨在弘扬劳模精神、劳动精 据了解，五粮液以"和美文化+健康中国"为主线，品牌元素贯穿赛事各环节，为参赛选手献上和美祝福，全方位展示品牌形象。在现场的赛事博览会精心设置五粮液文化体验馆，通过29°五粮液 业内人士指出，五粮液通过与国家级职工体育赛事的战略合作，不仅传递了支持全民健身、关爱职工健康、助力体育强国的积极信号，更以"美酒+体育"的创新模式，在与广大职工和马拉松爱好 体育和美酒是人类共同的情感纽带。五粮液始终秉持的"精益求精"的工匠精神、"和合共生，美美与共"的和美文化内涵，与体育运动蕴含的拼搏奋进、超越自我、包容共享的精神内核不谋而合 五粮液相关负责人表示，将继续作为"高品质生活"方式的倡导者与共建者，坚定支持健康中国与体育强国建设，以"和美"文化为魂，以体育为 ...