Industry Overview - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry experienced a slight revenue decline in 2024, with total revenue of 1.24 trillion, down 4.06% year-on-year. However, net profit turned positive at 47.985 billion, indicating a significant improvement in profitability, particularly in the breeding sector [1][11] - In Q4 2024, the industry achieved revenue of 349.694 billion, up 0.98% year-on-year, and net profit of 16.209 billion, a substantial increase of 293.20% [1][11] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 290.7 billion, up 4.44% year-on-year, with net profit of 13.335 billion, marking a turnaround from losses [1][11] Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector saw a recovery in 2024, with revenue of 483.276 billion, down 2.98% year-on-year, and net profit of 33.142 billion, indicating a return to profitability [2][26] - In Q1 2025, revenue increased to 118.888 billion, up 17.32% year-on-year, with net profit of 8.151 billion, continuing the positive trend [2][26] - The sector is expected to maintain good profitability in the short term, driven by strong swine prices and improved breeding costs, while long-term trends may lead to capacity reduction and a new cycle of growth [2][26] Poultry Breeding - The poultry breeding sector achieved revenue of 72.908 billion in 2024, up 1.93% year-on-year, with net profit soaring to 2.949 billion, a remarkable increase of 2094.95% [3][10] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 16.011 billion, up 1.12% year-on-year, with net profit of 0.38 billion, up 155.38% [3][10] - The sector is closely linked to restaurant demand, and with improving downstream demand, poultry products are expected to benefit significantly [3][10] Seed Sector - The seed sector reported revenue of 24.664 billion in 2024, down 6.56%, but net profit turned positive at 0.454 billion [4][15] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 5.231 billion, up 4.79%, although net profit decreased by 31.87% [4][15] - The sector is expected to see improved demand due to ongoing agricultural revitalization efforts and increased grain yields [4][15]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The domestic supply and demand for pigs is expected to improve marginally by Q2 2025, with pig prices supported and entering a phase of gradual upward movement. External factors such as tariff-driven increases in feed raw material prices and higher costs for imported meat are also contributing positively to pig prices. The swine sector is highlighted as a defensive asset amid macroeconomic shocks, reinforcing investment logic. Recommended stocks include Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4][86]. - In 2024, China's pork production is projected to reach 56.75 million tons, accounting for 49% of global production, with consumption at 57.95 million tons, representing 50% of global consumption. This positions China as the world's largest pork producer and consumer [13][15]. - The average price of pork in 2024 is estimated at 16.8 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. The swine farming market size is expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year [17][32]. Group 2: Poultry Industry - The demand for white chicken remains resilient despite uncertainties from U.S.-China tariff policies and avian influenza outbreaks. The consumption of white feather broilers is expected to improve marginally, with recommended stocks including San Nong Development and He Feng Co [5][94]. - In 2024, the total output of meat chickens in China is projected to reach 14.84 billion, with white feather broilers accounting for 60.85% of this figure. The output of white feather broilers is expected to increase by 2.2% year-on-year [99]. Group 3: Animal Health - The market for piglets and poultry chicks is stable, with a solid demand for poultry chicks supported by increasing poultry farming. The market for ruminant and pet vaccines is also expected to remain robust, with recommended stocks including Bio-Group, Kexin Biology, and Pulaike [6]. Group 4: Planting and Seeds - The focus on food security is emphasized, with companies involved in high-yield genetically modified soybeans likely to benefit from the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The third batch of genetically modified corn varieties is expected to be approved for planting, which may increase the area under cultivation [7]. Group 5: Feed Industry - The recovery of the swine sector is expected to boost domestic demand for feed, while overseas markets present new growth opportunities. The demand for pig feed is anticipated to rebound as pig farming profitability improves and pig stocks gradually recover [8]. Group 6: Pet Industry - The upcoming shopping festivals are expected to drive demand for pet food, with domestic brands likely to gain market share due to increased tariffs on imported high-end products. Recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co, and Petty Co [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry experienced a decline in revenue in 2024 but saw a significant increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue growth of 6.79% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 795.07% [4][14] - The livestock sector, particularly poultry and pet food, demonstrated high growth rates in net profit, with poultry farming seeing a 1109.96% increase in 2024 and a 588.35% increase in Q1 2025 [5][20] - The report highlights the recovery of the pig cycle and the upward trend in pig prices, suggesting a favorable outlook for the livestock sector [6][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In 2024, the agriculture industry achieved a revenue of 11,498.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.68%, while net profit reached 466.39 billion yuan, an increase of 806.55%. In Q1 2025, revenue was 2,706.77 billion yuan, up 6.79%, and net profit was 133.13 billion yuan, up 795.07% [4][14] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation and potential for recovery, supported by consumption revival. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others. The feed sector benefits from strong domestic and overseas demand [6][24] Market Performance - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.08 percentage points, with the agriculture index down 0.56% [7][27] Price Tracking - As of May 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.84 yuan/kg, a slight decrease from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 36.88 yuan/kg, also down slightly [8][37]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the agriculture sector [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the SW Agriculture sector achieved a total profit of 13.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1049%, with significant contributions from the breeding, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors, accounting for 59%, 16%, and 15% of profits respectively [10][11] - The breeding sector saw a profit of 8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 254%, driven primarily by pig farming, which generated 7.615 billion yuan, up 242% year-on-year [10][11] - The feed and animal health sectors reported profits of 2.143 billion yuan and 512 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 676% and 34% [10][11] - The planting sector experienced a profit of 800 million yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, influenced by declining grain prices [10][11] Summary by Sections Breeding Sector - The average price of lean pigs was 14.69 yuan/kg, down 1.1% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork was 20.59 yuan/kg, down 1.4% [12][13] - The profit from self-breeding pigs decreased to 85.05 yuan per head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 48.53 yuan per head [14][15] - The average price of broiler chickens was 7.48 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from the previous week, and the average price of chicken products remained stable at 8.9 yuan/kg [25][27] Feed and Animal Health - The feed sector's profit growth was supported by the performance of the breeding sector, with significant increases in profits from poultry and aquatic feeds [10][11] - The pet food segment also showed strong performance, achieving a profit of 330 million yuan, up 28% year-on-year [10] Planting Sector - The planting sector's profit decline was attributed to lower prices for corn and wheat, which fell by 11% and 14% year-on-year, respectively [10][11] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies [11] Market Trends - The agriculture sector underperformed the broader market by 0.1 percentage points, with a decline of 0.6% [8][9] - The feed sector saw a slight increase of 1.65% during the same period [9]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [15] Core Views - The pig farming sector shows significant profitability but with large disparities due to cost differences, leading to a "stronger becoming stronger" scenario [19][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing a structural decline in production capacity, with a focus on the white chicken segment as it approaches its lowest point [22][24] - The seed industry faces inventory pressure, but the biological breeding sector is expected to accelerate due to supportive policies [29][30] - The pet industry is witnessing rapid growth of domestic brands, with a focus on high-income growth companies [32][33] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to improving market demand and cost control capabilities [34] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - Q1 sales prices for pigs were low, averaging 14.5-15.5 CNY/kg, down from 16-17 CNY/kg in Q4 2024 [19] - Companies like Shennong and Juxing saw over 60% year-on-year growth in output [19] - Average profit per pig improved significantly, with leading companies achieving profits of 300-350 CNY per head [19][21] - Some companies are returning cash to shareholders with high dividend payout ratios [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is under pressure, with significant price declines and narrowing profits [22] - The egg-laying chicken sector is benefiting from rising chick prices and sales, with companies like Xiaoming showing substantial profit growth [28] - The yellow chicken segment is experiencing a supply contraction, with demand expected to improve gradually [26][27] Seed Industry - The seed sector is under pressure with a net profit decline of 37.6% in Q1, primarily due to excess supply [29] - High R&D investment is noted, with leading companies like Longping High-Tech maintaining a strong position [29][30] - New regulations are expected to bolster the biological breeding sector, enhancing competitiveness [30][31] Pet Industry - Major pet food companies reported strong revenue growth, with brands like Maifudi leading the market [32] - The demand for elderly pet care products is increasing significantly, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [32] - The pet economy is thriving, with a focus on high-growth domestic brands [33] Feed Sector - The feed sector is recommended for investment, with companies like Haida Group showing improved revenue and profit [34] - The market for aquaculture feed is expected to recover, driven by rising fish prices and supportive consumption policies [34] Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector is experiencing revenue and profit differentiation, with some companies benefiting from price increases in raw materials [35] - New product opportunities in the pet health segment are emerging, providing potential growth avenues [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.115 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 148 million yuan, a significant increase of 338.3% year-on-year [1] - The chicken segment showed resilience with sales of 303,000 tons, up 3.1% year-on-year, despite a decline in average selling price by 4% to 9,759 yuan per ton [2] - The company has successfully optimized its customer and channel structure, maintaining a price premium of 630 yuan per ton over the industry average for two consecutive quarters [2] - Cost control measures have led to a 10% reduction in comprehensive meat production costs compared to the same period in 2024, contributing to profitability in the chicken segment [2] - The deep processing food business generated 1.89 billion yuan in revenue, a slight decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, but the C-end retail sector experienced over 30% growth [3] - Investment income increased by 203.4% to 30 million yuan, primarily due to strong performance from the joint venture, Sun Valley [3] - The company expects net profits of 990 million yuan, 1.06 billion yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 37.1%, 6.8%, and 13.8% [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 21.232 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.2% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 993 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 37.1% [5] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.80 yuan per share for 2025 [5] - The company maintains a P/E ratio of 20.7 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.115 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 148 million yuan, a significant increase of 338.3% year-on-year [1] - The chicken segment showed resilience with sales of 303,000 tons, up 3.1% year-on-year, despite a decline in average selling price by 4% to 9,759 yuan per ton [2] - The company has successfully managed costs, achieving a 10% reduction in comprehensive meat production costs compared to the same period in 2024, aided by the self-developed breed "Shengze 901Plus" [2] - The C-end business experienced rapid growth, with retail sales exceeding 30% year-on-year growth, despite overall pressure in the retail sector [3] - The company expects net profits to reach 990 million yuan, 1.06 billion yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 37.1%, 6.8%, and 13.8% [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 21.232 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.2% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 993 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 37.1% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.80 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.7x [5]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.115 billion CNY, a slight decline of 2.38% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 148 million CNY, a significant increase of 338.28% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 170 million CNY, up 399.58% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow net amount reached 560 million CNY, an increase of 60.70% year-on-year [1] Sales and Market Strategy - The company adopted an omnichannel sales strategy, showing a stable competitive advantage, particularly in the C-end retail business, which grew over 30% year-on-year [1] - The restaurant system business saw rapid growth, driven by the expansion of Western and Chinese chain restaurants [1] Cost Management - The new self-developed breeding chicken "Shengze 901Plus" has optimized key indicators such as feed-to-meat ratio, leading to a continued decline in costs [1][2] - The comprehensive meat production cost in Q1 2025 decreased by approximately 10% compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Production Capacity and Product Development - The company has a parent stock capacity of 17.5 million sets, with nearly 5 million sets sold externally in 2024, and self-use slightly exceeding external sales [3] - The new breed "Shengze 901Plus" has shown significant improvement in feed-to-meat ratio and is well-received by customers [4] Future Business Plans - The company aims to become a world-class food enterprise, focusing on downstream deep processing and expanding both B-end and C-end markets [4] - C-end business is expected to maintain high growth over the next 3-5 years, supported by market expansion and increased outlet numbers [5] Financial Management and Dividend Policy - The company plans capital expenditures primarily on renovating old factories and upgrading production equipment [7] - Since its listing in 2009, the cumulative dividend payout has exceeded 60% of the cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders, with a commitment to continue a positive dividend policy [7] Efficiency and Cost Control - The company has improved financial control by adjusting its financing structure, reducing bank loans, and increasing the use of bills to lower financial costs [9] - Sales expenses are managed through efficiency analysis and return on investment assessments, maintaining a stable management expense ratio [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a mixed performance in the livestock breeding sector, with the China Livestock Breeding Index experiencing a slight decline of 0.07% as of April 30, 2025, while specific stocks like Tiankang Biological and Tianma Technology showed gains [1] - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department has released an implementation plan aiming to reduce the proportion of grain used in livestock feed to 60% and soybean meal to 10% by 2030, promoting measures such as precise feed formulation and the development of high-quality forage [1] - The Livestock ETF has seen a 2.47% increase over the past month, ranking in the top quarter among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - According to a report from Guosheng Securities, the allocation of the livestock sector in fund heavy positions has significantly decreased, with a first-quarter heavy position ratio of 0.45%, down 0.06 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.65 percentage points year-on-year, marking the lowest level in three years [2] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Livestock ETF is 12.89, indicating it is at a historical low, being below 98.82% of the time over the past year [2] - The China Livestock Breeding Index includes companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the livestock sector [2] Group 3 - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index accounted for 69.05% of the index, with Hai Da Group, Wens Foodstuffs, and Muyuan Foods being the top three [3] - The weightings of the top stocks include Hai Da Group at 11.24%, Wens Foodstuffs at 10.10%, and Muyuan Foods at 10.08%, with Tiankang Biological showing a notable increase of 2.88% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.41 RMB [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.115 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 2.38% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 15%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 148 million RMB, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 338% [1][2]. - The company's profitability is supported by a price advantage and a reduction in costs, with the average price of chicken in the industry dropping by 5.9% year-over-year, while the company's revenue only declined by 2.4% [2][3]. - The company has successfully reduced its comprehensive meat production costs by approximately 10% year-over-year, driven by improvements in self-researched breeding stock and operational efficiency [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 4.115 billion RMB, with a net profit of 148 million RMB, aligning with the performance forecast range [1]. - The company estimates its Q1 broiler meat business profit at around 85 million RMB, with a per-unit profit of nearly 0.6 RMB, while the industry faces losses of about 1.1 RMB per unit [2]. Cost Management and Sales Strategy - The company has restructured its sales channels and product strategies, leading to high revenue growth across various channels, including C-end retail, which saw over 30% year-over-year growth [3]. - The company continues to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which are expected to sustain the downward trend in comprehensive meat production costs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for the company, projecting net profits of 1.284 billion RMB, 1.643 billion RMB, and 1.890 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is 9.03 RMB, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 2.15x for the same year [4].