Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market has experienced a significant rebound in retail prices for the top ten products, indicating a recovery in market sentiment after a period of decline [1]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for the top ten liquor products reached 8969 yuan, an increase of 44 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The market showed a broad upward trend, with most core products experiencing price increases, reflecting restored market confidence [1]. Individual Product Performance - Qinghua Lang saw the most substantial increase, rising by 14 yuan per bottle [1]. - Xijiu Junpin increased by 11 yuan per bottle, showing a strong rebound [1]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation ended its decline with a price increase of 7 yuan per bottle [1]. - Gujing Gonggu 20 rose by 5 yuan per bottle, while Jingpin Moutai increased by 4 yuan per bottle [1]. - Feitian Moutai and Qinghua Fen 20 both saw a rise of 3 yuan per bottle [1]. - The only products that experienced price declines were Guojiao 1573, which fell by 3 yuan, and Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, which decreased by 1 yuan [1][4]. Market Data Sources - The data was collected from approximately 200 points across major regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a phase of "supply optimization and weak demand recovery," with inventory destocking ongoing in Q4. Short-term price recovery is expected due to controlled supply from Moutai, with attention on Spring Festival sales and inventory movement [2][5] - The demand for mass-market products is expected to show marginal improvement, with January anticipated to see a strong start due to delayed Spring Festival stocking [2][5] - The report recommends focusing on products with strong seasonal effects and high performance realization, particularly in sectors like leisure snacks, restaurant supply chains, condiments, soft drinks, and dairy products [4][26] Summary by Sections Spring Festival Stocking Strategy - The Spring Festival stocking strategy should focus on products with strong seasonal effects and high performance realization. The timing of the Spring Festival can impact the performance of listed companies, especially in years when it falls later in the calendar [4][15] - Products with clear gifting scenarios and positive market sentiment in specific segments are prioritized for opportunity selection. The continuation of the post-Spring Festival market will depend on actual sales and positive Q1 performance feedback [4][26] CPI Trends - The food CPI has been strengthening since December, surpassing service and overall CPI. This trend is supported by supply clearing in certain items and seasonal demand recovery, which together bolster price improvements [32][34] - The CPI-PPI differential remains positive, supporting the continued improvement in profitability for food manufacturing companies [37] Market Performance Review - Since the beginning of 2026, the food and beverage index has increased by 2.21%, lagging behind the CSI 300, which rose by 2.79%. The performance of the liquor sector has remained stable, while the dairy sector has seen declines [6][40] - Soft drinks and leisure snacks have led the market in terms of growth related to Spring Festival stocking, while dairy and meat products have experienced declines [6][40] Industry Dynamics - The industry is increasingly focused on value deepening and structural optimization. Companies are prioritizing supply-demand balance, healthy pricing systems, and profit structure improvements rather than merely pursuing sales growth [7][46] - Food safety and supply chain resilience remain foundational to brand trust, highlighted by recent global recalls and supply chain disruptions [7][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [26]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the remaining brands in the sauce liquor sector will thrive, while mass-market products are expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival [2][8]. - The dairy sector is showing signs of improvement, with a potential rebound in raw milk prices and a narrowing supply-demand gap, which could lead to increased demand for processed dairy products [6]. - The beverage and snack categories are experiencing sustained growth, with specific segments like energy drinks and konjac snacks showing remarkable sales increases despite overall declines in the snack market [6]. - The report highlights a significant shift in the sauce liquor industry, where pricing strategies are becoming more pragmatic, with a new growth level emerging around the 200 yuan price point as lower-tier brands face market exit pressures [6][8]. - The report suggests that leading liquor companies should maintain operational stability during this industry downturn, focusing on balanced investments in base liquor to prepare for future market recovery [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 44,935.30 billion yuan, representing 3.54% of the market [3]. - The circulating market value stands at 43,859.19 billion yuan, accounting for 4.28% of the total market [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is 1.3%, with a relative performance decline of 2.2% compared to the benchmark [4]. - Over the past 12 months, the industry has seen a relative performance decline of 25.2% [4]. Sector-Specific Insights - Dairy products are expected to benefit from a favorable pricing environment and improved supply dynamics, with major companies actively preparing for the Spring Festival [6]. - The beverage sector is witnessing growth in specific categories, with leading brands launching targeted marketing campaigns for the holiday season [6]. - The sauce liquor market is undergoing a consolidation phase, with a focus on brand strength and market share recovery among leading companies [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a rise of 0.79% on January 12, with *ST Rock leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.75% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of *ST Rock was 3.20, with a gain of 4.92% and a trading volume of 132,400 shares, amounting to 41.70 million yuan [1] - Gujing Gongjiu closed at 141.73, up 2.94%, with a trading volume of 48,000 shares and a transaction value of 675 million yuan [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 119.29, increasing by 2.08%, with a trading volume of 129,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.54 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 403 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 29.32 million yuan [1] - Wuliangye had a main fund net inflow of 267 million yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 87.06 million yuan [2] - Luzhou Laojiao recorded a main fund net inflow of 85.62 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 34.07 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a price increase of 0.34% as of the report time [1] - Major liquor stocks such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu have surged over 2%, while Wuliangye and Yanghe have increased by more than 1% [1] - Kweichow Moutai has implemented a strategy to stabilize the market by directly reaching consumers through its iMoutai platform, which has gained over 2.7 million new users [1] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai's recent dealer communication emphasized three principles: preventing speculation, adapting supply and demand, and stabilizing the market [2] - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, with the PE ratio of the Huabao ETF at 20.16, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [2] - The white liquor industry is expected to reach a turning point as major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye implement market strategies ahead of the Spring Festival [3] Group 3 - The iMoutai platform's launch of the full range of Moutai products is expected to stabilize prices and improve market management [3] - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [3] - Investors can also consider the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF linked fund for exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector [3]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a price increase of 0.34% as of the latest update [1] - Major liquor stocks such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu have surged over 2%, while Wuliangye and Yanghe have increased by more than 1% [1] - The recent communication from Kweichow Moutai to its distributors emphasizes a strategy to stabilize the market by ensuring product availability directly to consumers, with over 2.7 million new users on the iMoutai platform [2][4] Group 2 - Guojin Securities notes that the market's expectations for the liquor industry are at an absolute low, and the clear volume and price planning from leading companies will alleviate concerns about price competition [3] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, making it a favorable time for investment, with the food and beverage ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.16, which is in the bottom 5.88% of the last decade [3] - CITIC Securities suggests that the current adjustments in the liquor industry may signal a turning point, with the upcoming Spring Festival being a critical observation period for market recovery [4] Group 3 - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with about 60% of its portfolio allocated to these sectors [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, indicating a strong focus on established players in the market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market shows signs of stabilization in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 12, with an overall price increase after a period of decline, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1]. Price Trends - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,925 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 7 yuan from the previous day, suggesting a slowdown in the downward price trend [1]. - The market exhibits a mixed pattern of price changes, with some products increasing in price while others decrease [1]. Price Increases - Notable price increases include: - Guojiao 1573, up 10 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Gujinggong 20, up 7 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, up 5 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghualang, up 4 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghualang 20, up 1 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Shujian Jiananspring, stable compared to the previous day [1]. Price Decreases - Significant price declines include: - Feitian Moutai, down 8 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation, down 8 yuan per bottle, falling below 800 yuan for the first time in a month [1][3]. - Boutique Moutai, down 3 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Xijiu Junpin, down 1 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The stabilization of prices for most core products is the primary factor driving the overall price recovery in the market [1].

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a slight recovery, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a price increase of 0.17% as of the latest update, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage ETF Huabao (515710) has seen a price increase of 0.17%, reflecting overall sector performance [1][8]. - Key stocks in the sector include Yangyuan Beverage, which surged over 4%, and other major players like Yili and Lianhua Holdings, which rose over 1% [1][8]. - Leading liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanghe also showed slight gains, contributing to the positive sentiment in the market [1][8]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - Open-source securities indicate that after experiencing policy shocks and rapid price declines, leading liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye have implemented market-oriented adjustment plans, suggesting that the liquor industry is nearing a bottom [10]. - Pacific Securities highlights that recent important meetings have prioritized boosting domestic demand, with expectations for further policies to stimulate demand recovery [10]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is currently at historical lows, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.16, placing it in the 5.88% percentile of the last decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [10]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - CITIC Construction points out that the current phase of the liquor industry, characterized by low prices and low expectations, may present a cyclical bottom for capital market investments [11]. - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) tracks a specialized index with approximately 60% of its portfolio in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in beverage, dairy, seasoning, and beer stocks [11]. - Investors can also consider the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF linked funds (Class A 012548/Class C 012549) for exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector [11].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector showed a positive trend today, with the ETF Huabao (515710) rising by 0.51% as of the report time [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including liquor and consumer goods, performed well, with Lianhua Holdings up over 2% and Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others showing slight gains [1] - The recent launch of premium Moutai products has seen strong demand, with products selling out quickly [1][3] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai is the largest holding in the Huabao ETF, accounting for 14.89% of the portfolio as of Q3 2025 [3] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, with the ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 20.16, indicating a potential opportunity for investment [3] - Historical analysis suggests that the current phase of the high-end liquor market may present a bottoming opportunity for capital market investments, especially with the upcoming Spring Festival [3] Group 3 - The Huabao ETF primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to beverage, dairy, and seasoning sectors [4] - Investors can also access the core assets of the food and beverage sector through the Huabao ETF linked funds [4] - The redemption fee structure for the Huabao ETF linked funds is outlined, with varying rates based on the investment amount and holding period [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a rebound in retail prices for major products after a period of decline, indicating a stabilization in market sentiment [1]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten liquor products increased to 8998 yuan, up by 16 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Major products showing price increases include: - Wuliangye Pu Wuyi 8th generation: up 8 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573: up 7 yuan per bottle - Guqingong 20 and Xijiu Junpin: up 6 yuan per bottle each - Qinghua Fen 20: up 3 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: up 1 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of increases - Shuijing Jiananshun: price remained stable [1][5]. Price Declines - Products experiencing price declines include: - Feitian Moutai: down 7 yuan per bottle - Boutique Moutai: down 6 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Lang: down 2 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Data Collection - The data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring a comprehensive and objective representation of the market [2]. New Sales Channels - The launch of new sales channels for Moutai products, including the iMoutai platform selling Feitian Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle and Boutique Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle, is expected to influence market prices significantly [2][3].