Core Insights - The special steel sector experienced a 0.5% increase on October 20, with Jiuli Special Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Special Steel Sector Performance - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) closed at 25.47, with a rise of 2.87% and a trading volume of 160,300 shares, totaling a transaction value of 406 million yuan [1] - Xianglou New Materials (301160) closed at 58.88, up 2.54%, with a trading volume of 27,300 shares and a transaction value of 162 million yuan [1] - Shengde Zhengtai (300881) closed at 34.33, increasing by 1.18%, with a trading volume of 12,900 shares and a transaction value of 44.03 million yuan [1] - Fushun Special Steel (600399) closed at 5.16, up 0.58%, with a trading volume of 207,700 shares and a transaction value of 107 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include Xining Special Steel (600117) at 3.21 (+0.31%), Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) at 4.04 (+0.25%), and Jinzou Pipeline (002443) at 7.87 (+0.13%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 44.69 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 37.27 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types, with main funds showing interest while retail investors withdrew [2]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [4][6][72] Core Viewpoints - The construction demand is under pressure while raw material prices remain relatively strong, leading to a maintained "Overweight" rating for the industry [6] - Steel demand has shown a significant week-on-week increase, primarily driven by the resumption of work after the National Day holiday, although construction material demand remains weak year-on-year [6][10] - Steel inventory has increased week-on-week, with hot-rolled steel experiencing the most accumulation [6][15] - Iron output has decreased week-on-week but has increased year-on-year, indicating resilience in demand supported by the manufacturing sector [6][37] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, while the CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.22%. The steel sector declined by 2.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.21 percentage points [10] - Black futures prices have decreased, with rebar closing at 3037 CNY/ton, down 66 CNY/ton (2.13%), and hot-rolled coil at 3204 CNY/ton, down 81 CNY/ton (2.47%) [13][38] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased year-on-year, totaling 8.5922 million tons, although it increased by 1.5131 million tons week-on-week [15] - Total steel inventory rose to 21.7508 million tons, an increase of 389.33 thousand tons year-on-year [25] - The iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4095 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.0059 million tons week-on-week but an increase of 0.659 million tons year-on-year [37] Profitability and Pricing - The profitability per ton of steel has weakened, with various steel products showing fluctuating profits, such as rebar at -15 CNY/ton and hot-rolled steel at -8 CNY/ton [46] - The profit ratio among 247 steel mills was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week [47] Downstream Demand - Domestic cement dispatches fell to 2.5285 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 726.5 thousand tons [58] - PVC production increased to 467.38 thousand tons, up 1.4293 thousand tons year-on-year [58]

Core Viewpoint - Jiu Li Special Materials has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 12.43%, despite a recent decline over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 20, Jiu Li Special Materials' stock price increased by 2.02%, reaching 25.26 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.58 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.66% [1] - The company's total market capitalization is 24.683 billion CNY [1] - The stock has experienced a decline of 3.66% over the last five trading days, but has increased by 10.40% over the last 20 days and 8.60% over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jiu Li Special Materials reported a revenue of 6.105 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.39% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 828 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.48% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Jiu Li Special Materials increased by 16.03% to 20,600 [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 13.80% to 46,427 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 3.468 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.802 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Group 4: Major Shareholders - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the second-largest circulating shareholder, holding 44.637 million shares, an increase of 1.8334 million shares from the previous period [3] - The eighth-largest circulating shareholder, Fu Guo Xing Yuan Preferred 12-Month Holding Mixed A, holds 15.2453 million shares, unchanged from the previous period [3] - The ninth-largest circulating shareholder, Guangfa Steady Growth Mixed A, holds 12.5 million shares, a decrease of 800,000 shares from the previous period [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a shift in focus from demand to supply as countries enter a mature industrialization phase. The overall economy is expected to remain stable, with potential for recovery in the steel sector [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of government fiscal policies in influencing trade balances and commodity prices, particularly gold, which is seen as a counter to the U.S. dollar's credit [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for steel mills to implement production cuts effectively to stabilize the market and improve valuations of certain companies within the industry [2][4]. Supply Analysis - The average daily pig iron production has slightly decreased to 2.409 million tons, with a decline in rebar and hot-rolled coil production [11]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is reported at 90.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [16]. - The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [23]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has rebounded by 16.5% week-on-week, although it remains down 2.0% year-on-year [47]. - Rebar demand has shown a significant increase of 43.5% week-on-week, while overall building material transactions have decreased by 6.3% [37][38]. Price and Profitability - The report notes a slight decline in the current steel prices, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index down by 1.5% week-on-week [69]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled products are negative, indicating pressure on profitability [70]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (华菱钢铁) [8] - Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) [8] - Baosteel (宝钢股份) [8] - New Steel (新钢股份) [8] - Jiuli Special Materials (久立特材) [8] - Yongjin Co., Ltd. (甬金股份) [8] - Changbao Steel (常宝股份) [8] - Wujin Stainless Steel (武进不锈) [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [3][4]. Core Insights - Steel prices have slightly declined, with the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai at 3210 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][11]. - The report highlights a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, with total production of the five major steel products at 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 63,600 tons week-on-week [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" meeting, which is expected to guide long-term economic development and capacity regulation in the steel industry [3][8]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of October 17, steel prices have shown a downward trend, with specific price changes for various steel products, including a 120 CNY/ton decrease for hot-rolled steel [1][12]. Production and Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 23,800 tons to 11.2451 million tons, with a notable reduction in rebar inventory [2][3]. Profitability - Steel margins have decreased, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins down by 36 CNY/ton, 55 CNY/ton, and 17 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and specific companies in the special steel and pipe sectors [3][4].

Core Insights - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 1.11% on October 17, with Jiuli Special Materials leading the drop at -3.36% [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3839.76, down 1.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12688.94, down 3.04% [1] Stock Performance - The following stocks in the special steel sector showed varied performance: - Fangda Special Steel: Closed at 5.39, up 0.56% with a trading volume of 202,600 shares [1] - Jiuli Special Materials: Closed at 24.76, down 3.36% with a trading volume of 124,400 shares and a transaction value of 312 million [2] - Taiyuan Iron & Steel: Closed at 4.03, down 0.98% with a trading volume of 453,300 shares [2] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 153 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 118 million [2] - The following stocks had significant capital flow: - Shengde Zhengtai: Net inflow from retail investors was 961,210, while institutional investors had a net outflow of 666,910 [3] - Xining Special Steel: Retail investors had a net inflow of 637,800, while institutional investors had a net outflow of 407,220 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Jiu Li Special Materials experienced a decline of 2.14% on October 16, with a trading volume of 263 million yuan, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Financing and Margin Trading - On October 16, Jiu Li Special Materials had a financing buy-in amount of 22.23 million yuan and a financing repayment of 24.28 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 204.95 thousand yuan [1] - The total margin trading balance for Jiu Li Special Materials as of October 16 is 271 million yuan, with the current financing balance at 268 million yuan, accounting for 1.07% of the circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile of the past year [1] - The company repaid 1,600 shares in margin trading and sold 8,100 shares on the same day, with a selling amount of 207.5 thousand yuan, while the margin balance is 2.49 million yuan, indicating a lower position compared to the 50th percentile of the past year [1] Company Overview - Jiu Li Special Materials, established on January 8, 2004, and listed on December 11, 2009, is located in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, specializing in the research, production, and sales of industrial stainless steel pipes and special alloy materials [1] - The company's main revenue sources include seamless pipes (37.97%), composite pipes (33.57%), welded pipes (13.44%), alloy materials (6.25%), other products (5.54%), and pipe fittings (3.23%) [1] Financial Performance - As of June 30, the number of shareholders for Jiu Li Special Materials reached 20,600, an increase of 16.03%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 13.80% to 46,427 shares [2] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.105 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 828 million yuan, up 28.48% year-on-year [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Jiu Li Special Materials has distributed a total of 3.468 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.802 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the second-largest circulating shareholder, holding 44.6371 million shares, an increase of 1.8334 million shares from the previous period [3] - The eighth-largest circulating shareholder, Fortune Xingyuan Preferred 12-Month Holding Period Mixed A, maintained its holding at 15.2453 million shares, while the ninth-largest shareholder, Guangfa Steady Growth Mixed A, reduced its holdings by 800 thousand shares to 12.5 million shares [3]

Core Viewpoint - The special steel sector experienced a 0.8% increase on October 15, with Xianglou New Materials leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3912.21, up 1.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13118.75, up 1.73% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xianglou New Materials (301160) closed at 58.55, with a rise of 2.83% and a trading volume of 23,300 lots, amounting to 136 million yuan [1]. - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 66.ET, increasing by 2.12% with a trading volume of 236,100 lots, totaling 329 million yuan [1]. - Shengde Yantai (300881) closed at 35.50, up 2.01% with a trading volume of 14,600 lots, amounting to 51.49 million yuan [1]. - Shagang Group (002075) closed at 5.70, rising by 1.42% with a trading volume of 306,200 lots, totaling 173 million yuan [1]. - Xining Special Steel (600117) closed at 3.32, up 1.22% with a trading volume of 333,300 lots, amounting to 110 million yuan [1]. - Jinzou Pipeline (002443) closed at 8.25, increasing by 0.98% with a trading volume of 113,600 lots, totaling 93.01 million yuan [1]. - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) closed at 26.18, up 0.96% with a trading volume of 145,100 lots, amounting to 379 million yuan [1]. - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) closed at 4.18, rising by 0.72% with a trading volume of 395,600 lots, totaling 165 million yuan [1]. - Changbao Co. (002478) closed at 6.28, up 0.64% with a trading volume of 242,000 lots, amounting to 152 million yuan [1]. - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.50, increasing by 0.55% with a trading volume of 180,300 lots, totaling 99.54 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 8.99 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 6.64 million yuan. However, there was a net outflow of 15.64 million yuan from speculative funds [2][3]. - Xining Special Steel (600117) experienced a net outflow of 13.01 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 3.46 million yuan [3]. - Shagang Group (002075) had a net inflow of 9.45 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 4.10 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - CITIC Special Steel (000708) saw a net inflow of 2.56 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 2.98 million yuan [3].

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 0.81% on October 14, with Xianglou New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23, down 0.62%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11, down 2.54% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the special steel sector included: - Changbao Co., Ltd. (002478) rose by 2.13% to a closing price of 6.24 [1] - Xianglou New Materials (301160) fell by 5.32% to a closing price of 56.94 [2] - Other companies like Jiu Li Special Materials (002318) and Shagang Co., Ltd. (002075) also saw declines of 1.11% and 1.23%, respectively [1][2] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 41.83 million yuan from institutional investors and 46.63 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 88.47 million yuan [2] - Specific stock capital flows included: - Changbao Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 11.24 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xianglou New Materials experienced a net outflow of 11.70 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually bottom out in demand, with supply-side market clearing beginning to appear, leading to a potential recovery in the industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of supply may accelerate, facilitating quicker industry recovery [1]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Steel consumption for the week of October 6-10, 2025, was 7.5143 million tons, a decrease of 1.5339 million tons week-on-week. Construction steel consumption was 2.2262 million tons, down 1.0846 million tons, while plate steel consumption was 5.2881 million tons, down 0.4493 million tons. Steel production was 8.6331 million tons, a decrease of 0.0376 million tons, and total inventory rose to 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces at 247 steel mills was 84.27%, down 0.02 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rates were 60.26%, down 1.28 percentage points. Despite a marginal decline in demand due to the National Day holiday, the industry remains in a traditional peak season, with expectations for gradual recovery in steel demand and inventory reduction [2]. Profitability Trends - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 167.1 CNY, an increase of 24.3 CNY week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 112.1 CNY, up 29.3 CNY. The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 56.28%, a decrease of 0.43% [3]. - The expectation is for iron ore production to accelerate while demand remains limited, leading to a gradual easing of iron ore prices and improvement in cost constraints for the steel industry, with a potential recovery in profitability levels [3]. Future Outlook - The negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is expected to diminish, with stable growth anticipated in demand from infrastructure and manufacturing sectors. Steel exports maintained a year-on-year increase from January to August [4]. - Over 40% of steel companies are currently experiencing losses, but market clearing is beginning to occur. Recent policies aim to reduce production and promote a balance between supply and demand, supporting the expectation of supply contraction and gradual recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [4]. Recommended Companies - Key recommendations include Baosteel (600019) for its technological and product structure leadership, Hualing Steel (000932) for its product structure upgrades, and Fangda Special Steel (600507) for its low-cost advantages. Other recommendations include CITIC Special Steel (000708) for its competitive advantages and high dividend yield, as well as upstream resource companies like Hebei Steel Resources (000923) and Dazhong Mining (001203) due to their long-term growth potential [5].