Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Crude oil freight rates have decreased month-on-month, while container shipping rates on long-distance routes have increased. The China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) reported 1632.26 points on October 23, down 8.9% from October 16. The VLCC market remains cautious due to the implementation of special port fees between China and the US, leading to a weak sentiment among shipowners [2][13] - Guangdong Province has released a high-quality development plan for the low-altitude economy, aiming to establish itself as a national leader in this sector. The civil aviation industry has shown steady growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total transport turnover of 1220.3 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2][15][16] - In Shenzhen, the monthly delivery volume of autonomous vehicles has surpassed one million, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in express delivery volume in September. The postal industry reported a total business income of 152.57 billion yuan in September, up 6.8% year-on-year [2][22][24] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, while container shipping rates on long-distance routes have increased. The CTFI reported a decrease of 8.9% [2][13] - Guangdong's low-altitude economy development plan aims to optimize airspace management and promote low-altitude logistics [15][16] - Shenzhen's autonomous vehicle delivery volume has exceeded one million, with express delivery volume growing by 12.7% [22][24] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index has shown a month-on-month increase of 6.9% [26] - Domestic cargo flights have increased by 3.05% year-on-year, while international flights have risen by 15.86% [32] - The express delivery business volume in September increased by 12.7% year-on-year, with total business income reaching 127.37 billion yuan [50][54] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Consider investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies like Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Explore investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [4]

Group 1 - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain resilient growth, with a projected business volume of 128.2 billion pieces in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [2][9] - The trend of small parcelization continues, driven by consumer preferences for cost-effective products, leading to increased repurchase frequency and smaller package sizes [9][41] - The regulatory environment has led to a slowdown in price competition, with the average revenue per delivery in the express industry decreasing by 7.3% year-on-year to 7.48 yuan in the first eight months of 2025, a significant improvement from a 12.3% decline at the end of 2024 [3][13] Group 2 - The express delivery sector is witnessing a shift towards value competition due to the implementation of new social security regulations, which are expected to increase operational costs in the short term but promote long-term industry transformation [4][72] - The concentration of market share among leading companies has increased, with the top six firms maintaining an 80% market share in 2025, indicating a trend of market differentiation among major players [20][26] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles is expected to reduce last-mile delivery costs significantly, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express investing heavily in this technology [70][65] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of e-commerce express delivery leaders, with a focus on companies like SF Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, and JD Logistics, as they are expected to benefit from improved earnings visibility [77][78] - The report highlights that the profitability of express delivery companies will depend on the sustainability of price increases, with potential for significant profit recovery in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [60][62] - The report suggests that the ongoing trend of small parcelization and the rise of new consumption models will continue to support steady growth in delivery volumes [41][77]

Core Insights - The logistics sector experienced a 1.0% increase on October 27, with Xiamen Xiangyu leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13489.4, up 1.51% [1] Stock Performance - Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) closed at 7.77, up 3.74% with a trading volume of 327,600 shares and a turnover of 252 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Ruimaotong (600180) at 4.87, up 2.96% [1] - Shentong Express (002468) at 15.97, up 2.57% [1] - ST Haichin (600753) at 7.40, up 2.49% [1] - Debon Logistics (603056) at 15.56, up 1.97% [1] - SF Holding (002352) at 40.58, up 1.76% with a turnover of 1.489 billion yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The logistics sector saw a net inflow of 158 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 64.2 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant fund flows include: - Wuchan Zhongda (600704) with a net inflow of 86.62 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - SF Holding (002352) with a net inflow of 66.92 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shentong Express (002468) with a net inflow of 61.20 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry shows resilient demand, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in September, indicating a steady expansion of the market [4][25] - The logistics sector is witnessing technological advancements, with JD Logistics planning to procure 3 million robots and 100,000 unmanned vehicles over the next five years, which may enhance supply chain efficiency [5] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from geopolitical factors and trade negotiations, potentially increasing demand for oil transportation and bulk shipping [6][10] - The aviation sector is experiencing growth, with a 10.8% increase in international flight volumes for the upcoming winter-spring season, reflecting a recovery in air travel [10][12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In September 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 16.88 billion pieces, a 12.7% year-on-year increase, with revenue of 127.37 billion yuan, up 7.2% [4][25] - Major players like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control, with significant growth potential [14] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market may benefit from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, potentially increasing long-distance shipping demand [6] - The shipping market is expected to see a recovery driven by environmental regulations and geopolitical stability, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Shipping and COSCO [14][15] Aviation - The aviation industry is projected to maintain steady growth, with a 10.3% increase in total transport turnover and a 5.2% rise in passenger transport volume in the first three quarters of 2025 [10] - Airbus has opened a new A320 assembly line in Tianjin, marking a significant milestone in Sino-European cooperation [9] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 2.33% and highway freight truck traffic rising by 24.72% [13] - Strategic partnerships in the highway sector are being formed to enhance service offerings and operational efficiency [13] Overall Market Performance - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 1.12%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.88% [20][23]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant recovery in performance due to a rise in single-package prices and an increase in business volume during the peak season, driven by the "anti-involution" trend in the industry [1][5]. Group 1: Business Volume - In September, the express delivery industry saw a year-on-year business volume growth of 12.7%, with SF Express leading at 31.81% [2]. - Cumulatively, from January to September, the total express delivery volume reached 1,450.8 billion packages, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [2]. - The business volume for major companies in September was as follows: YTO Express 2.627 billion packages, Shentong Express 2.187 billion packages, Yunda Express 2.110 billion packages, and SF Express 1.504 billion packages [2]. Group 2: Market Share - Cumulative market share from January to September shows YTO Express at 15.6%, Yunda Express at 13.2%, Shentong Express at 13.0%, and SF Express at 8.3%, with SF Express gaining 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Pricing Situation - The express delivery industry experienced a significant month-on-month price increase of 2.4% in September, with an average price of 7.55 yuan per package, down 4.9% year-on-year [4]. - For major companies in September, the average prices were: YTO Express 2.21 yuan, Yunda Express 2.02 yuan, Shentong Express 2.12 yuan, and SF Express 13.87 yuan [4]. - Cumulatively, from January to September, the average price for SF Express was 13.83 yuan, down 13.00% year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry continues to show growth potential, with the "anti-involution" price increases proving effective, and attention should be paid to the upcoming peak season's volume and pricing dynamics [5]. - The expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce are expected to further enhance the penetration rate of online shopping, contributing to the growth of the express delivery sector [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant effects of price increases in the express delivery industry due to the "anti-involution" trend, with a focus on profit recovery during the peak season [2][6] - The express delivery business volume grew by 12.7% year-on-year in September, with cumulative growth of 17.2% from January to September [3][13] - The average price per delivery increased by 2.4% month-on-month in September, indicating a recovery in pricing power within the industry [4][23] Summary by Sections Industry Situation - In September, the express delivery business volume reached approximately 168.8 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7%. The cumulative retail sales of physical goods through online shopping amounted to 9.15 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.5% year-on-year increase [3][13] - The cumulative online shopping penetration rate is about 25.0%, with a slight decline of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][13] Company Performance - In September, SF Express led the business volume growth with a 31.81% increase, followed by YTO Express at 13.64%, Shentong Express at 9.46%, and Yunda Express at 3.63% [4][25] - Cumulatively from January to September, SF Express achieved a business volume of 121 billion pieces, with a growth rate of 28.34%, while YTO, Yunda, and Shentong had growth rates of 19.40%, 12.98%, and 17.08% respectively [4][25] Pricing Situation - The average price per delivery in the express delivery industry was 7.55 yuan in September, down 4.9% year-on-year but up 2.4% month-on-month. The cumulative average price from January to September was 7.48 yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [4][23] - Individual company pricing in September showed YTO at 2.21 yuan, Yunda at 2.02 yuan, Shentong at 2.12 yuan, and SF Express at 13.87 yuan, with SF experiencing a year-on-year decline of 13.31% [5][26] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend, particularly Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, while keeping an eye on Yunda and Shentong [7][41] - For direct-operated models, SF Express is recommended due to its potential for significant performance recovery and growth in international business [7][41]

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the trend of "anti-involution" in the express delivery industry has spread nationwide, significantly increasing the per-package revenue for companies and is expected to improve the profitability of e-commerce express delivery firms in the second half of this year and next year, with profitability elasticity depending on the sustainability of price increases [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of small-package delivery continues, with the industry expected to maintain resilient growth in business volume. By August 2025, the cumulative express delivery volume reached 128.2 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 17.8% (on a comparable basis), indicating counter-cyclical growth [1] - The consumption potential in lower-tier markets, such as the central and western regions and rural areas, is being released, which is expected to contribute to resilient growth in industry business volume in the second half of 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the express delivery industry's per-package revenue was 7.48 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, but the decline has narrowed compared to a 12.3% drop at the end of 2024, reflecting a slowdown in price competition under the "anti-involution" regulation [1] - The upcoming peak season for e-commerce is anticipated to stabilize and repair express delivery prices in the second half of 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The weakening of economies of scale is noted, with the core cost per package declining at a slower pace. As transportation and transfer costs have limited room for reduction, the introduction of unmanned vehicle technology is expected to lower the delivery costs at the final stage [2] - New social security regulations are expected to lead to a short-term increase in per-package costs, but in the long term, they may drive the industry towards a value competition transformation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [7] Core Insights - The passenger transport volume is recovering, with domestic passenger volume increasing by 3% year-on-year and international passenger volume rising by 17% [5][13] - Shipping rates for container shipping are showing strong support, while oil and bulk shipping rates have slightly adjusted downwards [6][39] - Logistics technology financing is accelerating, with express delivery volume increasing by 7.8% year-on-year [5][50] Summary by Sections Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger volume has shown a 3% year-on-year increase as of October 24, with international passenger volume up by 17% [5][13] - The average domestic seat occupancy rate has improved by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, while international occupancy has increased by 5.1 percentage points [22] - Oil prices have decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, putting slight pressure on industry revenue [22] Shipping - The average VLCC-TCE rate has decreased by 8.4% to $79,000 per day [39] - The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping has increased by 7.1% to 1,403 points, indicating strong pricing support from shipping companies [6][39] - The BDI index has decreased by 3.8% to 1,991 points, reflecting a softening demand for large vessel rentals [39] Logistics - The express delivery volume from October 13 to October 19 reached 3.944 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [50] - The average price for bulk commodity road transport has increased by 4.8% year-on-year, reaching 0.33 yuan per ton [50] - The average daily transport volume at Ganqimaodu was 900 vehicles, with a short-distance average price of 90 yuan per ton, reflecting a 13 yuan increase [50]

Core Insights - The logistics industry is witnessing a significant shift towards the adoption of unmanned delivery vehicles, with major companies making large-scale purchases to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [1][4][5]. Group 1: Unmanned Vehicle Procurement - China Post has initiated a procurement project for 7,000 unmanned vehicles, including various sizes and services, with a framework agreement lasting four years [1][2]. - JD Logistics plans to purchase 3 million robots, 1 million unmanned vehicles, and 100,000 drones over the next five years to strengthen its position in smart logistics [1][4]. - Companies like Cainiao and Shentong Express are also investing in unmanned vehicles, with Shentong aiming to deploy 2,000 unmanned vehicles by the end of the year [1][5]. Group 2: Market Trends and Growth - The unmanned delivery vehicle market is expected to experience explosive growth by 2025, driven by technological advancements, cost reductions, and increased demand in the instant retail market [4][6]. - As of mid-2025, over 100 cities in China have opened road rights for unmanned delivery vehicles, with the total number of such vehicles exceeding 6,000, marking a 50% increase from 2024 [6][8]. Group 3: Cost Efficiency and Operational Benefits - Unmanned vehicles can significantly reduce delivery costs, with reports indicating a decrease of 30%-50% in last-mile delivery expenses [8][10]. - Companies like Zhongtong Express have noted that using unmanned vehicles can lower costs by 6-7 cents per package, enhancing operational efficiency [5][10]. Group 4: Expansion Beyond Traditional Delivery - The application of unmanned vehicles is expanding beyond the express delivery sector into urban logistics and instant delivery markets, indicating a potential for exponential growth [10][12]. - White Rhino is diversifying its operations to include campus delivery networks and retail replenishment, showcasing the versatility of unmanned vehicles in various logistics scenarios [12].

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics announced a five-year procurement plan to purchase 3 million robots, 1 million unmanned vehicles, and 100,000 drones, aiming to strengthen its technological leadership in the smart logistics sector [2][4]. Group 1: JD Logistics Developments - JD Logistics is leveraging technology to reshape the logistics system, with a focus on the most technologically advanced 11.11 event in China's logistics history [4]. - The "Wolf Pack" series of robots has been deployed in over 20 provinces in China and more than 10 countries globally, making JD Logistics the comprehensive logistics company with the most robot applications in the industry [4]. - The large-scale and intelligent application of robots, unmanned vehicles, and drones will create a robust foundation for JD's super supply chain, reducing logistics costs for society and enhancing the shopping experience for consumers [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The logistics industry is accelerating the automation of various processes, with major players like SF Express also making significant advancements in unmanned vehicle applications [5]. - SF Express reported that by mid-2025, it had deployed over 1,800 unmanned vehicles across 72 cities in 19 provinces, enhancing operational quality and efficiency through a unified service and monitoring platform [5]. - The logistics industry's move towards automation is on the verge of a breakthrough, with the market for unmanned urban distribution vehicles expected to exceed 30 billion yuan by 2030 [6]. Group 3: Drone Delivery Innovations - Meituan has launched drone delivery services in multiple cities, achieving operational permits from the Civil Aviation Administration of China and Dubai's Civil Aviation Authority [7]. - As of September 2023, Meituan's drone delivery business has completed over 670,000 commercial orders, surpassing the order volume of Google's Wing Aviation [7].