Core Insights - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival has officially started, with e-commerce platforms launching real-time promotions on October 20, 2025, marking a significant event in the annual retail calendar [2][3] - A customer in Nanjing received their order just 17 minutes after payment, showcasing the efficiency of logistics during this peak shopping period [2] Group 1: Logistics Efficiency - The rapid delivery of orders is attributed to advanced logistics strategies, including intelligent forecasting and flexible warehousing [3] - SF Express has implemented a data-driven "smart brain" system that integrates various data sources to optimize inventory and delivery processes [3] - The company has prepared for the expected delivery peaks by analyzing data trends and ensuring adequate resources in terms of personnel, vehicles, and facilities [3] Group 2: Customer Experience - Customers are experiencing unprecedented delivery speeds, with some receiving their orders almost immediately after payment confirmation [2] - The logistics improvements aim to enhance customer satisfaction by reducing fulfillment times and minimizing risks of stockouts and overselling [3] - SF Express expresses confidence in its ability to provide high-quality service during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [3]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Rizhao Public Transport Group and SF Express aims to create a new business model integrating public transport, logistics, and urban services, focusing on resource integration and upgrading public services [1][2] Group 1: Logistics and Transportation Integration - The partnership has established a "Same City Express Line" using the C201 rural bus route, optimizing unused space in buses for package storage, enabling efficient "hourly delivery" without additional transport capacity [1] - The new logistics model allows for the quick transport of agricultural products from rural areas to urban centers, significantly reducing the time from harvest to consumption, achieving "midday delivery after early morning harvest" [1] Group 2: Service Expansion and Innovation - Smart storage lockers have been deployed in key areas, allowing passengers to temporarily store luggage while traveling, enhancing convenience with flexible storage options [2] - The initiative includes a collaboration with Xinfadi Market to showcase local agricultural products on tourist buses, promoting the integration of agriculture and tourism, and facilitating direct delivery from production areas to consumers [2] - Future plans involve further development of the logistics service system to enhance the "public transport + logistics + urban services" model, aiming for improved rural logistics integration in the Rizhao region [2]

Core Insights - The "Double 11" shopping festival has officially started, with major e-commerce platforms launching promotional rules to stimulate consumer shopping enthusiasm [1] - Express delivery companies are actively preparing for the logistics peak associated with the shopping festival, ensuring robust logistics support [2] Group 1: Express Delivery Companies' Preparations - The express delivery industry has entered a "combat mode" in anticipation of the "Double 11" shopping festival, focusing on logistics support for online consumption [2] - Yunda Holdings has emphasized the need for safety, service quality, and efficiency during the peak season, preparing resources such as personnel, vehicles, and warehouses in advance [2] - Shentong Express has initiated a large-scale deployment of "AI outlet managers" to enhance service quality and efficiency during the logistics peak [3] Group 2: Industry Trends and Developments - The "Double 11" has evolved into a long-term promotional event, leading express delivery companies to shift from emergency expansion to systematic capability building [4] - Major express companies are advancing their smart transformation, focusing on improving sorting operations, intelligent routing, and AI customer service to enhance service quality [5] - Companies like YTO Express are responding to the call against "involution" competition by embracing value competition strategies and accelerating smart upgrades [5] Group 3: Service Quality Enhancement - Experts suggest that express delivery companies should build a layered service system and develop customized product combinations to improve service quality [6] - The integration of smart lockers, service stations, and home delivery can enhance service reach and quality [6]

据了解，在人力与运力储备上，北京顺丰此次投入1.9万名快递员，并组建600人机动支援队伍，随时响 应片区突发需求；车辆调度方面，在日常5000余车次基础上，将高峰日均车次提升至近8000次，全力应 对件量峰值冲击。 北京商报讯（记者 何倩）10月21日，北京商报记者获悉，随着"双11"物流高峰临近，北京顺丰正式成 立"双11"高峰应对工作组，针对北京各片区差异化需求，工作组深入一线摸排痛点，拉通职能部门资 源。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express logistics is positive due to healthy competition [3][13] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in VLCC freight rates anticipated in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is seeing stable demand growth, with supply chain issues leading to increased costs for airlines. The overall passenger demand is projected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth [9][14] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In September 2025, major express companies reported improved performance, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda achieving business volumes of 2.627 billion, 2.187 billion, and 2.110 billion pieces, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.64%, 9.46%, and 3.63% [3][27] - The average revenue per piece for these companies also saw increases, indicating a trend of rising prices in the express delivery sector [3][27] Shipping and Ports - The implementation of new port fees between China and the US is expected to create a dual market structure, granting strategic pricing power to compliant shipping capacities [5] - China has secured pricing power for iron ore, marking a significant shift in global commodity trade dynamics [6] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 12.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [7] Aviation - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that supply chain bottlenecks are delaying aircraft production, leading to increased costs for airlines, estimated to exceed $11 billion in 2025 [9] - Chinese airlines collectively oppose the US Department of Transportation's proposed flight restrictions, highlighting concerns over operational impacts [10] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were reported to be running smoothly, with significant increases in highway freight traffic [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance electric vehicle charging infrastructure along highways by 2027 [12] Overall Market Performance - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.47% [18]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a recovery in both volume and pricing due to anti-involution measures, with significant revenue growth observed among major players in September. Group 1: Performance Metrics - SF Express achieved a business volume of 1.504 billion parcels, a growth rate of 31.81%, with revenue reaching 20.854 billion yuan, up 14.21%, but a decrease in average revenue per parcel by 13.31% to 13.87 yuan [1] - YTO Express reported a business volume of 2.627 billion parcels, a growth of 13.64%, with revenue of 5.799 billion yuan, up 14.89%, and an average revenue per parcel of 2.21 yuan, an increase of 1.09% [1] - Yunda Express had a business volume of 2.110 billion parcels, growing by 3.63%, with revenue of 4.252 billion yuan, up 4.14%, and an average revenue per parcel of 2.02 yuan, a slight increase of 0.50% [1] - Shentong Express reported a business volume of 2.187 billion parcels, a growth of 9.46%, with revenue of 4.633 billion yuan, up 14.89%, and an average revenue per parcel of 2.12 yuan, an increase of 4.95% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The industry is seeing a slowdown in growth rates due to price increases, with SF Express leading the market for seven consecutive months, achieving an average daily volume of over 50 million parcels in September [2] - The State Post Bureau anticipates a year-on-year growth of approximately 12% in express delivery volume and 7% in revenue for September, with total volume expected to reach around 1.45 trillion parcels and revenue exceeding 1 trillion yuan for the first three quarters [2] - The anti-involution price increase actions have been expanding nationwide since July, showing positive effects on the performance of major express companies as the peak season approaches [2] Group 3: Challenges for Frontline Operations - While headquarters are benefiting from anti-involution measures, frontline outlets are facing varied situations, with some reporting increased losses due to rising shipping costs without a corresponding decrease in volume assessments [4] - Many outlets are struggling with the implementation of price increases, with some areas not fully passing on the increased costs to customers, leading to concerns about profitability during the peak season [5] - Despite the overall price increases, frontline outlets are still waiting for adjustments in delivery fees, with some regions only seeing minor increases, which do not alleviate the financial pressures faced by these outlets [6]

Core Insights - The company has launched a specialized cultural tourism service in Rizhao, focusing on convenience, efficiency, and customer satisfaction, with over 100,000 tourists served during the National Day holiday and more than 12,000 delivery orders processed [1] Group 1: Service Implementation - SF Express has established a logistics center at Rizhao High-Speed Railway Station, providing comprehensive services across logistics operations, customer experience, business expansion, and resource integration [3] - The self-service network includes 2 smart lockers and multiple self-service delivery cabinets, significantly enhancing the travel experience by allowing quick parcel processing in under one minute [3] Group 2: Collaboration with Local Transport - SF Express has partnered with Rizhao Public Transport Group to create a "passenger-cargo-mail integration" model, optimizing bus routes for parcel delivery without additional resources [5] - The collaboration includes establishing SF Express bus express points at major transport hubs, improving the accessibility of delivery services for residents [6] Group 3: Enhancing Tourist Experience - The company has integrated its services into the entire travel process, including creating a dynamic tourism map that highlights service points and offering exclusive discounts for tourists [7] - SF Express has set up delivery points at key tourist attractions, allowing visitors to send local products home easily, thus enhancing their shopping experience [7] Group 4: Hotel Partnerships - SF Express has collaborated with local hotels to provide luggage delivery services, allowing tourists to send their bags directly to hotels and pick them up after check-out, enhancing convenience [10] - The initiative transforms hotels into logistics hubs, enabling a seamless travel experience for tourists [10]

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪， 9 月多 家快递公司"量价齐升" 航运方面，中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远洋航线运价上 涨。航空方面沃兰特 VE25-100 eVTOL 成功完成首轮试飞，三大航 9 月运 营数据释放积极信号。物流与交通新业态方面，京东物流与宁德时代达成战 略合作，9 月多家快递公司"量价齐升"。 核心观点 ①中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远洋航线运价上涨。10 月 16 日，上海航运交易所发布的 CTFI 指数报 1791.28 点，较 10 月 9 日上 涨 27.3%。本周 VLCC 市场中东航线 11 月初货盘陆续进场，国际政治 与贸易消息对市场情绪影响明显，美国宣布对中国原油码头实施制裁， 中国宣布反制措施对美资船舶征收对等港口费，短期内加剧中美航运关 系紧张的担忧，推升了市场的避险情绪。随着中国交通运输部发布的关 于对美船舶征收特别港务费的实施细则落地，中国建造船舶可豁免缴纳 该费用的条款，成交运价也在大幅上涨后高位企稳。欧线方面，本周运 输需求总体稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding's stock performance in 2023 has been disappointing, with a significant decline in share price and market capitalization [2][3] Financial Performance - As of the latest closing, SF Holding's stock price is 40.09 CNY per share, with a total market value of 202 billion CNY [2] - In the first half of the year, SF Holding achieved revenue of 146.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.26%, and a net profit of 5.738 billion CNY, up 19.37% [7] - The second quarter saw revenue of 77.01 billion CNY, growing 11.5% year-on-year, and net profit of 3.504 billion CNY, increasing 21.02% [7] Stock Price Decline - SF Holding's stock price has dropped over 17% since August 27, resulting in a market value loss of nearly 40 billion CNY [2][3] - The decline is attributed to the "Common Growth" stock incentive plan announced at the end of August, which involves the controlling shareholder gifting up to 200 million A-shares to employees [3][4] Employee Incentive Plan - The "Common Growth" plan, proposed by Chairman Wang Wei, involves a total value of approximately 9.68 billion CNY based on the stock price at the time of announcement [4] - The plan covers a wide range of employees, including not only executives but also frontline staff like couriers and operators [4] Market Reaction - The market's negative reaction is due to perceived leniency in the performance assessment criteria of the incentive plan, which only requires a positive growth rate in net profit for stock grants [5] - Concerns also arise from the potential long-term impact on company profits, as the plan will incur accounting costs despite the shares being gifted [6] Business Segments - SF Holding's main business segments include express delivery and large items, supply chain and international, and same-city instant delivery [8] - The express delivery and large items segment generated revenue of 104.773 billion CNY in the first half of the year, growing 8.21% year-on-year [8] - The same-city instant delivery segment saw a significant revenue increase of 38.77%, reaching 5.583 billion CNY [8] Pricing and Profitability - The average price per delivery has decreased to 14 CNY, a drop of 12.2% year-on-year, impacting the company's gross margin, which fell to approximately 13.22% [9] - The gross margin decline reflects the competitive pressures within the express delivery industry [9]

Summary of China Logistics Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China logistics industry**, particularly the express delivery sector, highlighting the performance of key players in September 2025. Key Companies Discussed - **YTO Express (600233 CH)** - **STO Express (002468 CH)** - **Yunda Holding (002120 CH)** - **SF Holding (002352 CH)** - **J&T Express (1519 HK)** - **JD Logistics (2618 HK)** - **ZTO Express (Cayman)** Core Insights and Arguments - **ASP Recovery**: In September 2025, the Average Selling Price (ASP) for Tongda players showed recovery, with YTO, STO, and Yunda increasing their ASP by Rmb 6, 6, and 10 cents month-over-month, translating to year-over-year changes of +1.1%, +4.95%, and +0.5% respectively [1][1][1] - **Revenue Growth**: - YTO achieved a **14.9% year-over-year revenue growth** with a **13.6% parcel volume growth**. - STO also reported **14.9% year-over-year revenue growth** with a **9.5% parcel volume growth**. - Yunda underperformed with only **4.1% year-over-year revenue growth** and **3.6% parcel volume growth**. - SF's parcel volume grew by **31.8% year-over-year**, contributing to a **14.2% revenue growth** despite a sequential ASP recovery [1][1][1]. - **Market Positioning**: - YTO and STO are noted for balancing volume and price effectively, while Yunda is expected to continue losing market share. - SF's strong parcel volume growth indicates effective optimization strategies in its economy express segment [1][1][1]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - The current pecking order for e-commerce express players is: **J&T (Buy) > STO (Buy) > ZTO (Buy) > YTO (Neutral) > YUNDA (Sell)**. - For premium express players, the order is **SF (Buy) > JDL (Buy)** [1][1][1]. - **Future Outlook**: - Anticipation of further ASP recovery in the upcoming peak season for e-commerce, which could positively impact ZTO and J&T. - J&T Express is highlighted as a top pick due to its superior parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia and potential ASP recovery in China [1][1][1]. Additional Important Points - **Performance Metrics**: - Detailed metrics for September 2025 show YTO with **2,627 million parcels** (13.6% YoY), STO with **2,187 million parcels** (9.5% YoY), Yunda with **2,110 million parcels** (3.6% YoY), and SF with **1,504 million parcels** (31.8% YoY) [3][3][3]. - **ASP Trends**: - ASP for YTO was Rmb 2.21, for STO Rmb 2.12, for Yunda Rmb 2.02, and for SF Rmb 13.87, indicating significant differences in pricing strategies among the players [3][3][3]. - **Strategic Considerations**: - JDL's valuation is considered attractive with limited downside potential, although uncertainties exist regarding JD's strategies for food delivery and overseas expansion [1][1][1]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the performance and strategic positioning of major players in the China logistics industry.