Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant market transformation, with strong price increases across various metals, making it a focal point for investment in 2026 [3][26]. Group 1: Market Performance - Non-ferrous metals have shown a strong upward trend in both futures and stock markets, with the non-ferrous mining ETF rising 14.88% in the first nine trading days of 2026 [1][3]. - From mid-2025, metals like aluminum, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths entered a super-upward cycle, with tin futures prices soaring from 261,400 CNY/ton to 443,400 CNY/ton, a nearly 70% increase [4][10]. - In 2025, cobalt and silver prices increased by 173% and 148% respectively, while gold rose by 59.27% [7][8]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of lithium carbonate futures surged to 174,000 CNY/ton, nearly three times the price in Q2 2025 [8]. - Key industrial metals like copper and aluminum also saw significant price increases, with copper futures rising from 78,000 CNY/ton to 105,600 CNY/ton [10]. - The price of tungsten increased from 122,000 CNY/ton to 455,000 CNY/ton, marking a 272% rise [10]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Geopolitical factors, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have increased demand for gold as a strategic reserve, with central banks globally increasing their gold holdings [10][11]. - Supply disruptions in metals like copper and tin due to mining accidents and export restrictions have contributed to a widening supply-demand gap [11][21]. - Historical data indicates a strong correlation between precious metals and interest rate cuts, suggesting that monetary easing periods lead to increased prices for both precious and industrial metals [11][12]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The global gold ETF holdings increased significantly in 2025, with a total of 3,985.94 tons, marking the second-largest annual increase since 2004 [14]. - Non-ferrous themed ETFs saw a net subscription of over 51 billion CNY in 2025, with total assets growing nearly ninefold [16]. - Major non-ferrous companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum reported substantial profit increases, with Zijin's net profit growing by 55.45% year-on-year [20][21]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its strong performance due to macroeconomic liquidity, geopolitical tensions, and robust demand from industries like renewable energy and electric vehicles [26]. - The non-ferrous mining ETF is positioned to benefit from rising metal prices, with a historical performance showing significant price elasticity compared to the underlying commodities [23][25].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33% on January 15, with 11 industries rising, led by electronics and basic chemicals, which increased by 1.67% and 1.40% respectively. The non-ferrous metals industry ranked third in terms of gains, while the comprehensive and defense industries saw the largest declines of 3.35% and 2.80% respectively [1]. Industry Summary Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals industry rose by 1.37%, with a net inflow of 1.936 billion yuan. Out of 138 stocks in this sector, 108 increased in value, with 4 hitting the daily limit, while 29 declined. A total of 80 stocks experienced net inflows, with 13 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan. The top inflow was from Huayou Cobalt, which received 772 million yuan, followed by Ganfeng Lithium and Northern Rare Earth with inflows of 554 million yuan and 379 million yuan respectively [2]. - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Zijin Mining, Hunan Silver, and Xingye Silver Tin, with outflows of 733 million yuan, 542 million yuan, and 309 million yuan respectively [2]. Fund Flow Analysis - The top stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry by net inflow included: - Huayou Cobalt: +7.06%, turnover rate 5.80%, net inflow 772.03 million yuan - Ganfeng Lithium: +4.26%, turnover rate 7.13%, net inflow 554.29 million yuan - Northern Rare Earth: +1.20%, turnover rate 3.10%, net inflow 379.34 million yuan [3]. - The stocks with the largest net outflows included: - Zijin Mining: -0.65%, turnover rate 1.87%, net outflow 733.09 million yuan - Hunan Silver: +6.25%, turnover rate 25.54%, net outflow 541.94 million yuan - Xingye Silver Tin: -1.05%, turnover rate 6.54%, net outflow 309.11 million yuan [4].

Group 1 - The metal cobalt concept increased by 2.02%, ranking 10th among concept sectors, with 21 stocks rising, including ST HZ, Zhongwei New Materials, and Huayou Cobalt, which rose by 16.08%, 7.34%, and 7.06% respectively [1] - The metal cobalt sector saw a net inflow of 1.032 billion yuan, with 17 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflows, led by Huayou Cobalt with a net inflow of 772 million yuan [2][3] - The top three stocks by net inflow ratio were Zhongjin Lingnan, China Nonferrous Metals, and Huayou Cobalt, with net inflow ratios of 9.48%, 9.13%, and 8.95% respectively [3][4] Group 2 - The top stocks in the metal cobalt sector included Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, and Greenme, with daily price changes of 7.06%, 4.26%, and 2.88% respectively, and significant trading volumes [3][4] - The stocks with the largest declines included Tianqi Co., China Power Construction, and Pengxin Resources, which fell by 1.83%, 1.29%, and 1.21% respectively [1][5] - The trading activity in the metal cobalt sector showed a healthy turnover rate, with notable participation from institutional investors [3][4]

证券之星消息，1月15日能源金属板块较上一交易日上涨2.97%，华友钴业领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4112.6，下跌0.33%。深证成指报收于14306.73，上涨0.41%。能源金属板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日能源金属板块主力资金净流入13.15亿元，游资资金净流出6.62亿元，散户资金 净流出6.53亿元。能源金属板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603799 华友钻业 | | 7.69亿 | 8.92% | -1.92亿 | -2.22% | -5.77 Z | -6.69% | | 002460 赣锋锂业 | | 5.37 Z | 8.62% | -2.07 乙 | -3.33% | -3.29 Z | -5.29% | | 002466 天齐锂业 | | 1.82 Z | 4.29% | -1.12亿 | -2.63% | -7003.59万 | -1. ...

Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley projects that the MSCI China Materials Index will outperform the MSCI China Index by 65 percentage points in 2025, driven by supply dynamics [1] - The firm expects continued outperformance in 2026 due to supply disruptions and further M&A activities [1] - The demand growth for basic metals in China is anticipated to slow and stabilize, with copper and aluminum demand growth rates expected to be 2.5% and 1.5% respectively [2] Company Ratings and Forecasts - China Hongqiao's rating is maintained at "Overweight," with the target price raised from HKD 34 to HKD 40, citing its integrated model as a cost advantage [1][3] - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a top pick for 2026 due to its exposure to copper and gold [3] - Jiangxi Copper's rating is upgraded to "Neutral," despite a recent stock price increase of over 40% [3] - Baosteel's rating is downgraded to "Neutral," while Angang Steel's rating is downgraded to "Underweight" due to expected declines in steel profit margins [3] Supply Chain Dynamics - Supply disruptions are ongoing, with South32 scheduled maintenance at the Mozal aluminum smelter in March 2026 and a strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine expected to reduce copper supply by 77,000 tons [1][2] - Zijin Mining has issued a positive profit forecast, expecting a net profit of RMB 51-52 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59-62% [1] M&A Activities - Industry consolidation is advancing, with notable acquisitions such as Luoyang Molybdenum's purchase of Brazilian gold assets and Jiangxi Copper's acquisition of SolGold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) indicates a strong upward trend, driven by significant capital inflows and favorable macroeconomic conditions, particularly in the context of U.S. inflation data and expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 15, 2026, the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) rose by 1.82%, marking its fifth consecutive increase, with a trading volume of 1.964 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 6.22% [1]. - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past eight days, surpassing a total scale of 30 billion yuan [1]. - Key stocks within the index, such as Huayou Cobalt, rose by 6.77%, while other notable performers included Zhong Rare Earth (up 4.92%) and Chihong Zn & Ge (up 4.67%) [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - On January 13, 2026, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with the core CPI rising by 2.6%, both figures below market expectations [1]. - The lower-than-expected inflation data has strengthened the market's anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in April rising to 42% [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggests capitalizing on the "AI leap + century change" resonance, indicating a super cycle in non-ferrous metals driven by the "AI technology revolution" and "global order reshaping" [2]. - Historical patterns show that each super copper cycle corresponds with strong macro narratives, and the current cycle is expected to have significant strategic implications [2]. - The non-ferrous metal index, which tracks 50 listed companies in the sector, reflects the overall performance of the industry, with major constituents including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Views - The metal bull market is expected to continue, with significant price increases across various metal categories in 2025 [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and the ongoing "de-dollarization" process, which may extend the current commodity supercycle [6][10] Price Performance by Metal - Precious Metals: Gold is projected to rise 57% to 971 CNY/gram, and silver is expected to increase by 129% to 17.1 CNY/gram [6] - Industrial Metals: Copper is forecasted to increase by 34% to 99,000 CNY/ton, aluminum by 14% to 23,000 CNY/ton, lead by 3% to 17,000 CNY/ton, and zinc is expected to decrease by 10% to 23,000 CNY/ton [6] - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate is expected to rise by 58% to 119,000 CNY/ton, and electrolytic nickel by 10% to 138,000 CNY/ton [6] - Strategic Metals: Neodymium oxide is projected to increase by 52% to 610,000 CNY/ton, and tungsten concentrate by 218% to 455,000 CNY/ton [6] Investment Focus - Key investment opportunities include lithium companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Salt Lake Industry; cobalt companies like Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources; and various gold, copper, aluminum, and rare earth companies [6] Metal Price Changes in Q4 2025 - Lithium carbonate averaged 80,000 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 95% [7] - Gold averaged 951 CNY/gram, with a year-on-year increase of 54% [7] - Copper averaged 89,000 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 18% [7] Copper Market Insights - The average LME copper price for 2025 is projected to be around 10,000 USD/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% [10] - The report highlights the impact of the declining US dollar index and geopolitical tensions on copper prices [10] Aluminum Market Insights - The average price of A00 aluminum is expected to reach 20,700 CNY/ton in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 4% [22] - The report notes that aluminum prices are driven by strong downstream demand and supportive policies [22] Energy Metals Insights - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is projected to be 75,921 CNY/ton for 2025, with a significant increase in Q4 [33] - Nickel and cobalt prices are also expected to remain strong, with electrolytic nickel averaging 124,100 CNY/ton [33] Strategic Metals Insights - The report indicates that prices for rare earths and tungsten are on the rise, with neodymium oxide expected to average 55.6 million CNY/ton in Q4 2025 [39] - The strategic importance of these metals is emphasized in the context of global geopolitical dynamics [40]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.6%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.02% [1] - A total of 1,685 stocks rose, while 3,664 stocks fell, with a trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan, a decrease of 347.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Precious metals, energy metals, and battery sectors showed significant gains, while commercial aerospace, internet services, and cultural media sectors faced declines [3] - The precious metals sector saw substantial increases, with stocks like Sichuan Gold hitting the daily limit, and Hunan Silver, Xiaocheng Technology, and Shandong Gold also rising [9] - The energy metals sector performed well, with lithium mining stocks experiencing a resurgence, including Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium [6][7] Individual Stock Highlights - Ganfeng Lithium's stock price increased by 5.01%, with a market capitalization of 145.4 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 15.31% [8] - Sichuan Gold's stock price surged by 10%, with a market capitalization of 14.5 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 24.34% [10] - The lithium carbonate price rose to 160,000 yuan per ton, a 36.71% increase from the beginning of the month [8] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector faced a significant downturn, with stocks like China Satellite and Aerospace Electronic hitting their daily limit down, and others like Aerospace Hongtu and Huazhong Technology dropping over 10% [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by favorable policies and technological advancements, positioning it as a key focus area in the market. Group 1: Market Performance - The battery and solid-state battery sectors are leading the market, with notable stock performances from companies like Xianhui Technology, which rose by 11.59%, and Huayou Cobalt, which increased by over 7% [1][2]. - Key companies in the industry, including CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy, also saw upward movements, indicating a strong response across the supply chain [1]. Group 2: Policy Support - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes accelerating breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology, highlighting a collaborative effort between national and local governments to enhance the supply chain's self-sufficiency [3]. - Local governments are integrating solid-state batteries into their industrial strategies, with regions like Jiangxi and Chongqing focusing on advancing core technologies in this field [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Companies are rapidly advancing their solid-state battery technologies, with Weichai Power announcing successful laboratory research on sulfide solid-state batteries and plans for industrialization [4]. - Jinlongyu is investing 1.2 billion yuan to establish a production line for solid-state batteries, while Haopeng Technology aims for mass production of solid-state batteries by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Market Potential - Solid-state batteries are expected to penetrate various sectors, including electric vehicles, energy storage, aerospace, and consumer electronics, due to their performance advantages over traditional lithium-ion batteries [6]. - TrendForce forecasts that the global demand for solid-state batteries will exceed 206 GWh by 2030 and further expand to over 740 GWh by 2035, indicating a transition to large-scale applications [6]. Group 5: Industry Growth Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the growth potential of the solid-state battery supply chain, with expectations of high demand driven by the increasing sales of electric vehicles [6][7]. - The period from 2027 to 2030 is identified as a critical window for the industrialization of solid-state battery technologies, with equipment manufacturers likely to benefit first from this growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant capital inflows into various stocks, highlighting potential investment opportunities in specific sectors such as non-metal materials, photovoltaic equipment, and energy metals [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Inflows - The top stock by capital inflow is沃尔核材 with an inflow of 1.375 billion, showing a price increase of 10.01% [2] - 航天机电 follows with an inflow of 849 million and a price increase of 3.72% [2] - 华友钴业 has an inflow of 805 million and a price increase of 7.41% [2] - N至信 shows a remarkable price increase of 252.01% with an inflow of 720 million [2] - 英维克 has an inflow of 694 million and a price increase of 3.13% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The non-metal materials sector is represented by沃尔核材, which has the highest capital inflow [2] - The photovoltaic equipment sector includes航天机电, indicating interest in renewable energy technologies [2] - The energy metals sector is highlighted by华友钴业 and赣锋锂业, both showing strong inflows and price increases, reflecting demand for materials used in batteries [2][3] - The household appliance sector is represented by四川长虹, which has an inflow of 641 million and a price increase of 6.58% [3] - The software development sector includes广联达, with an inflow of 423 million and a price increase of 7.33% [3]