Core Viewpoint - The beer industry in China is experiencing a decline in sales volume, with major players facing challenges, while some smaller brands are showing growth in both sales and profitability [1][2][4]. Sales Performance - In 2024, major beer companies in China reported sales volume changes: Budweiser APAC down 11.8%, Qingdao Beer down 5.86%, China Resources Beer down 2.5%, Chongqing Beer down 0.75%, Yanjing Beer up 1.6%, and Zhujiang Beer up 2.62% [2][4]. - The overall beer production in China decreased by 0.6% in 2024, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment towards daily fast-moving consumer goods [2]. Market Dynamics - The gap in market share among major players has narrowed, with leading companies like China Resources, Qingdao, and Budweiser all experiencing declines in revenue and sales, while Yanjing and Zhujiang have continued to grow beyond industry levels [4]. - Zhujiang Beer saw a nearly 37% increase in net profit, while Yanjing Beer’s net profit surged by over 50% [4]. Premiumization Trends - Yanjing Beer achieved total sales exceeding 4 million kiloliters in 2024, with its flagship product Yanjing U8 selling close to 700,000 kiloliters, marking a growth rate of over 30% for two consecutive years [5]. - Zhujiang Beer reported a nearly 14% increase in sales of high-end beer products in 2024 [5]. Challenges for Leading Brands - Budweiser APAC faced a 1.4% decline in revenue per hectoliter in China, while Qingdao Beer’s sales of mid-to-high-end products dropped by 2.65% [6]. - Despite overall revenue and sales declines, leading beer companies emphasize that their premium products continue to grow, with China Resources Beer reporting that mid-range and above beer sales exceeded 50% of total sales for the first time [7]. Pricing and Profitability - The ton price for major brands in 2024 was as follows: China Resources Beer over 3,300 yuan, Qingdao Beer over 4,200 yuan, Budweiser APAC over 5,300 yuan, Chongqing Beer over 5,200 yuan, while Yanjing and Zhujiang Beer were around 3,100 yuan and 3,800 yuan respectively [9]. - Despite slight revenue declines, China Resources and Qingdao Beer still reported revenues exceeding 36 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan respectively, indicating a significant lead over smaller competitors [11]. Future Outlook - The beer industry, while facing volume declines, still has potential for slow growth if price increases can outpace volume decreases [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 6.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, up 29.95% year-over-year [1][2] - The gross margin and net margin have significantly improved, with the gross margin at 46.30% (up 3.48 percentage points) and net margin at 14.50% (up 2.53 percentage points), primarily due to lower raw material costs and product mix upgrades [2][3] - The company has seen strong performance in high-end products, with high-end product revenue reaching 3.904 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13.97%, and accounting for 70.84% of total revenue [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan and a net profit of 810 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 6.56% and 29.95% respectively [1] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 46.30%, while the net profit margin reached 14.50% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from different channels in 2024: ordinary channel 5.155 billion yuan (+6.00%), supermarkets 198 million yuan (+46.71%), night venues 88 million yuan (-4.72%), and e-commerce 71 million yuan (+20.51%) [3] - High-end products showed the highest growth, with sales volume of high-end beer increasing by 13.96% year-over-year [3] Future Projections - The company expects steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 6.188 billion yuan in 2025, 6.681 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.182 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 896 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.60% year-over-year [4][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 6.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, up 29.95% year-over-year [1][2] - The gross margin and net margin have significantly improved, with the gross margin at 46.30% (up 3.48 percentage points) and net margin at 14.50% (up 2.53 percentage points), primarily due to lower raw material costs and product mix upgrades [2][3] - The company has seen strong performance in high-end products, with revenue from high-end products reaching 3.904 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13.97%, and accounting for 70.84% of total revenue [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan and a net profit of 810 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 6.56% and 29.95% respectively [1] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 46.30%, and net profit margin increased to 14.50% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from different channels for 2024: ordinary channel 5.155 billion yuan (+6.00%), supermarkets 198 million yuan (+46.71%), night venues 88 million yuan (-4.72%), and e-commerce 71 million yuan (+20.51%) [3] - High-end products showed the highest growth, with sales volume of high-end beer increasing by 13.96% year-over-year [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its product matrix and enhancing product strength by integrating elements of sports, music, and food, and hosting events like the Pearl River Beer Music Festival [4][10] - The company is actively pursuing high-end product development and has introduced new products to align with market trends [10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 896 million yuan, 967 million yuan, and 1.059 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 10.60%, 7.95%, and 9.46% [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry in China is experiencing a decline in sales and revenue, with major players facing challenges in maintaining growth, while some smaller brands are gaining market share and profitability [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.138 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 5.3%, with a net profit of 4.345 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8%, and sales volume of 7.538 million kiloliters, down 5.86% [1]. - Among the five major beer companies, four experienced a decline in sales last year, with Budweiser APAC down 11.8%, Qingdao Beer down 5.86%, China Resources Beer down 2.5%, and Chongqing Beer down 0.75% [1]. - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer were exceptions, with Yanjing Beer growing by 1.6% and Zhujiang Beer by 2.62% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market share gap among major players has narrowed, with leading companies like China Resources, Qingdao, and Budweiser all facing revenue and sales declines, while Yanjing and Zhujiang continue to grow beyond industry levels [3]. - Yanjing Beer achieved total sales exceeding 4 million kiloliters in 2024, with its flagship product Yanjing U8 seeing sales close to 700,000 kiloliters, growing over 30% for two consecutive years [3]. - Zhujiang Beer reported a nearly 14% increase in high-end beer product sales year-on-year, with net profit rising by nearly 37% [3]. Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - Despite overall revenue and sales declines, leading beer companies emphasize growth in their premium products, with China Resources reporting that mid-range and above beer sales accounted for over 50% of its total sales [3]. - The average price per ton for China Resources Beer exceeded 3,300 yuan, Qingdao Beer over 4,200 yuan, Budweiser APAC over 5,300 yuan, and Chongqing Beer over 5,200 yuan, while Yanjing and Zhujiang's prices were around 3,100 yuan and 3,800 yuan respectively [5]. - The leading companies still maintain significant revenue advantages, with China Resources and Qingdao Beer generating revenues of over 36 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan respectively, while Chongqing Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer reported revenues of 14.6 billion yuan, less than 13 billion yuan, and 5.7 billion yuan respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 11.80, up from the previous forecast of 11.20 [2][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to outperform the industry in terms of sales volume for the full year 2024, with a continued upward trend in ton price and structure, alongside a significant decrease in ton cost, leading to an expansion in gross sales margin [3][12]. - The report highlights that the company is entering a channel destocking phase in Q4 2024, which is anticipated to lay a solid foundation for growth in 2025 [3][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 5,378 million, projected to increase to 5,731 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 624 million in 2023 to 810 million in 2024, marking a significant increase of 30% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.28 in 2023 to 0.37 in 2024 [5]. Sales and Profitability - The company achieved beer sales of 1.4396 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.62%, with high-end beer product sales rising by 13.96% [12]. - The average selling price of beer increased by 4.3% to 3,828 yuan per ton, driven by strong sales of high-end products [12]. - The gross profit margin improved by 3.5 percentage points in 2024, with a net profit margin of 14.1% [12]. Cost Management - The ton cost of beer decreased by 2.4% to 2,103 yuan, attributed to lower barley prices and stable packaging material costs [12]. - The report indicates a notable improvement in cost management, with various expense ratios showing slight declines, contributing to enhanced profitability [12]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company’s premium product line is expected to continue driving structural improvements and sales growth, benefiting from a favorable channel structure and competitive pricing [12]. - The report suggests that the company’s production efficiency and ongoing cost improvements will support steady profit growth in the future [12].

智通财经记者 | 张艺 啤酒界"华南王"珠江啤酒（002461.SZ）披露了一份史上最好成绩单。 珠江啤酒2024年实现营业收入57.31亿元，同比增长6.65%；归母净利润8.10亿元，同比增长29.95%。两项指标双双创下历史新高，也优 于行业整体表现。 智通财经发现，珠江啤酒业绩创新高的同时，面临三大隐忧。首先，公司靠产品高端化来提高利润水平，但其中高端产品占比已高，提 升空间有限。 其次，募资使用效率问题。七年前定增募资的43亿元，还有26亿元躺在资金专户收利息，多个项目推进缓慢。 去年年报透露出最重要的问题在于，珠江啤酒全国化进程不进反退，在整体营收增长的同时，非华南地区的营收下降超10%。 显然这不是管理层想看到的。正因全国化迟滞不前，公司营收增长也十分缓慢，规模已远远落后"啤酒五强"公司。 那么，珠江啤酒全国化为何难以有效拓展？公司下一个增长引擎在哪？ 珠江啤酒证券部人士回应智通财经，公司正努力通过持续完善全国营销网络，加强广东省外市场的开拓，增强公司在其他地区的影响 力。同时该人士认为，公司中高端市场还有一定的增长空间。 量价齐升拉动业绩 营收突破新高，归母净利润跳过7亿元区间，直接站上8亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.14 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive performance in terms of volume and price, with significant profit growth in 2024. Total revenue reached 5.731 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million CNY, up 29.95% [1][4]. - The company outperformed the industry average, driven by a high proportion of non-draft beer and effective channel profit cycles. Beer revenue was 5.511 billion CNY, a 7% increase year-on-year, with sales volume at 1.4396 million tons, up 2.62% [2][3]. - Cost advantages and product structure upgrades contributed to an increase in gross margin, which rose by 3.5 percentage points to 46.3% in 2024. The company effectively controlled expenses, leading to a net profit margin of 13.3%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 5.731 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 6.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 29.95% [5][10]. - The company expects revenue for 2025-2027 to be 6.087 billion CNY, 6.388 billion CNY, and 6.648 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.2%, 5.0%, and 4.1% [4][5]. Profitability - The gross margin improved to 46.3% in 2024, driven by a 2.5% decrease in cost per ton, primarily due to lower raw material prices. The net profit margin reached 14.14% [3][9]. - The company anticipates continued growth in profitability, with net profit projections of 973 million CNY, 1.107 billion CNY, and 1.216 billion CNY for 2025-2027, representing growth rates of 20.1%, 13.7%, and 9.9% [4][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focused on the growth cycle of its flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, and aims to enhance its market presence in Southern China. The strategy includes deepening marketing reforms and expanding the mid-to-high-end product matrix [3][4]. - The company plans to strengthen its restaurant channel operations and innovate in channel capabilities, which are expected to drive revenue growth [2][3].

珠江啤酒（002461.SZ）2024 年年报点评 量价表现亮眼，盈利显著向上 2025 年 03 月 29 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 3 月 27 日，公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营业 总收入 / 归 母 净 利 润 / 扣 非 归 母 净 利 润 57.31/8.10/7.62 亿元，同比 +6.56%/+29.95%/+36.79%。经测算，24Q4 公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非 归母净利润实现 8.44/0.04/-0.06 亿元，营收同比+2.11%；归母净利润同期亏 损 0.2 亿元，扭亏为盈；扣非归母净利润同期亏损 0.47 亿元，显著减亏。 ➢ 量价表现亮眼好于行业平均，非现饮占比高+渠道利润周期创造α。24 年公 司啤酒收入 55.11 亿元，同比+7%，分量价来看，销量 143.96 万吨，同比+2.62% （同期我国规上啤酒企业产量同比-0.6%），吨价 3828 元，同比+4.3%，预计 量价均好于行业平均。产品结构来看，高档/中档/大众化啤酒产品分别 39.04/12.39/3.68 亿 元 ， 同 比 +14.0%/-11.4%/+13.5% ，占比分别 7 ...

Core Insights - Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery reported a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.56% and a net profit of 810 million yuan, up 29.95% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.7 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [1] Revenue Breakdown - The beer business generated 5.511 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 7.04% increase year-on-year [1] - Revenue by channel: 5.155 billion yuan from ordinary sales, 198 million yuan from supermarkets, 88 million yuan from night venues, and 71 million yuan from e-commerce, with growth rates of 6%, 46.71%, -4.72%, and 20.51% respectively [1] - Gross margins by channel: 44.64% for ordinary sales, 58.44% for supermarkets, 36.33% for night venues, and 49.61% for e-commerce [1] Regional Performance - The South China region contributed 95.02% of total revenue, approximately 5.491 billion yuan, while other regions accounted for only 4.98%, a decrease from 6.81% in the first half of the year [1] Product Category Performance - Revenue from premium, mid-range, and mass-market beer products reached 3.904 billion yuan, 1.239 billion yuan, and 368 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of 13.97%, -11.41%, and 13.48% respectively [2] - The beer industry in China is entering a stable development phase, with significant competition but opportunities for structural upgrades in consumption [2] Industry Context - Despite a general decline in the domestic beer industry, Zhujiang Brewery's volume and price performance outpaced the industry, benefiting from strong brand recognition and the successful iteration of its premium product "97 Pure Draft" [3] - The overall beer production in China decreased by 0.6% in 2024, with large-scale enterprises producing 35.213 million kiloliters [2] - The trend towards quality consumption continues to influence the market, with consumers favoring personalized and distinctive products [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Zhujiang Beer with a target price of 11.76, compared to the last closing price of 10.30 [1]. Core Insights - Zhujiang Beer achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million, up 29.95% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 762 million, reflecting a 36.79% increase [4][5]. - The sales volume of beer in 2024 was affected by demand, with a slight decline in overall production in China. However, Zhujiang Beer managed to increase its sales volume by 2.6% to 143.96 million tons and the average price per ton rose by 4.3% to 3828 [5][6]. - The company continues to optimize its product structure, launching new products like Zhujiang P9 and Zhujiang Beer 1985, while the flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, is expected to maintain double-digit growth [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Zhujiang Beer reported a revenue of 844 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, with net profit soaring by 118.74% to 4 million [4]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 reached 46.30%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades and cost optimization [5][10]. - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 6% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 5% for 2027, with net profit growth rates of 15%, 10%, and 9% respectively [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Zhujiang Beer has shown resilience in the South China market, with revenue from the region increasing by 7.5% to 5.49 billion, while other regions experienced a decline of 10.4% [5]. - The company has optimized its distributor network, with a net decrease of 114 distributors in Guangdong but an increase of 16 in other regions [5]. - The report highlights the ongoing structural upgrades and cost reductions as key drivers for improved profitability and market competitiveness [5][10].