Core Insights - Zhujiang Beer reported a beer sales volume of 143.96 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.62% [1] - The company's total revenue reached approximately 5.731 billion yuan, an increase of 6.56% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was around 810 million yuan, up 29.95% [1] - The second and third quarters contributed over 80% of the annual net profit [1] Industry Overview - The beer industry in China is entering a phase of stock competition, with a reported decline of 0.6% in beer production among large-scale enterprises [2] - Despite the overall market facing challenges, Zhujiang Beer believes there is still potential for structural upgrades in beer consumption [2] Revenue Breakdown - High-end products have become the main revenue driver for Zhujiang Beer, generating approximately 3.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.97%, contributing nearly 70% of total revenue [3] - Mid-range products saw a revenue decline of 11.41%, totaling about 1.239 billion yuan, while mass-market products experienced a revenue growth of 13.48%, reaching approximately 368 million yuan [3][4] E-commerce Performance - Zhujiang Beer has focused on new retail channels, with e-commerce revenue growing by 20.51% year-on-year, amounting to about 70.62 million yuan [5] - Within e-commerce, high-end product revenue was approximately 37.45 million yuan, up 5.64%, while mass-market product revenue reached about 33.17 million yuan, increasing by 43.28% [5][6] Regional Dependency - The South China region accounted for a staggering 95.81% of Zhujiang Beer’s total revenue, with revenue in this region reaching about 5.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.45% [8] - Revenue from other regions declined by 10.37%, totaling approximately 240 million yuan, representing only 4.19% of total revenue [8][10] - The gross margin in South China was significantly higher at 47.80%, compared to just 12.06% in other regions [9] Strategic Outlook - Zhujiang Beer acknowledges its heavy reliance on the South China market but emphasizes ongoing efforts to enhance its national marketing network and influence in other regions [10] - The company aims to leverage its technological advantages and product quality to maintain its competitive edge in the increasingly crowded Guangdong market [10]

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry in China is experiencing a structural upgrade in consumption, with companies like Zhujiang Beer capitalizing on this trend to achieve significant growth despite overall market challenges [1][3]. Company Performance - Zhujiang Beer reported a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, up nearly 30%, marking the highest revenue and profit in its history [1][3]. - The company's high-end product revenue grew by nearly 14%, with high-end products now accounting for 70% of total revenue, indicating a successful shift towards premium offerings [3][4]. - Zhujiang Beer achieved a beer sales volume of 1.4396 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.62%, outperforming the overall industry which saw a slight decline [4]. Market Dynamics - Guangdong province has surpassed Shandong to become the largest beer market in China, prompting Zhujiang Beer to enhance its production capacity to capture growth opportunities [2][5]. - The company is focusing on its home market in Guangdong, where it has a strong brand presence and is investing in capacity expansion projects, including a 700 million yuan investment in Dongguan and a 900 million yuan project in Zhongshan [6][7]. Strategic Initiatives - Zhujiang Beer is expanding its marketing efforts, including the opening of 244 new "Zhujiang Raw Beer Experience Stores" across the country, aiming to attract younger consumers [7]. - The company is also increasing its advertising expenses, with a 17.5% rise in promotional costs, although this is offset by a decrease in raw material costs [8].

证券代码：002461 证券简称：珠江啤酒 广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20250408 | 投资者关系活动 | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访  业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | 其他 （ ） | | 参与单位名称及 | 通过全景网参与业绩网上说明会的投资者 | | 人员姓名 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 4 月 8 日下午 15:00-16:30 | | 地点 | 全景网"投资者关系互动平台"（http://rs.p5w.net） | | 形式 | 网络远程方式 | | 上市公司接待人 | 公司董事长王志斌，总经理黄文胜，总会计师曾海涛，董事会秘 | | 员姓名 | 书李宽宽，独立董事何兴强等。 | | | 主要内容如下： | | | 1、从 2024 年的业绩数据来看，虽然公司高端化表现不错，但全 | | | 国化战略却仍任重而道远，目前公司依旧高度依赖华南市场，华 | | | 南以外地区的营收占比仅 4.19%，公司未来如何解决过度依赖单 | | | 一区域市场 ...

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the food and beverage industry is positive, with expectations of returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [29] Core Views - The food and beverage sector demonstrates resilience amid increasing export uncertainties and expectations for domestic demand policies to be strengthened [5][15] - The SW food and beverage index rose by 0.20%, ranking 11th among 31 sub-industries, with snacks, soft drinks, and beer leading the gains [5][15] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and strong performance amid the current market conditions [10][18] Sub-industry Summary Alcoholic Beverages - The white wine sector shows significant configuration value under domestic demand policy expectations, with a focus on companies with stable fundamentals and strong earnings certainty [6][18] - The SW white wine index decreased by 0.71%, with external risks heightened due to unexpected tariffs [6][20] - Recommended companies include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiansiyuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu, all rated as "Buy" [3][27] Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is expected to see strong performance in Q1, with a focus on high-growth categories and channels [22] - The SW snacks, soft drinks, and beer sub-sectors led the gains, with respective increases of 8.12%, 6.85%, and 3.64% [5][22] - Companies such as Youyou Foods, Zhujiang Beer, and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted as key performers to watch in the upcoming earnings reports [22] Snacks - The snacks segment is under continuous observation for category explosions and new channel opportunities [8][23] - There is a growing consumer demand for health-conscious and innovative products, with companies like Weilong and Yuyou Foods positioned to benefit from new product introductions [8][24]

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry is experiencing a decline in sales volume, but there is a positive trend in cost optimization, particularly due to falling raw material prices and a shift towards high-end products. Group 1: Company Performance - Chongqing Beer reported a revenue of 14.645 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.222 billion yuan for 2024, with sales volume reaching 2.9749 million kiloliters [1] - High-end product sales for Chongqing Beer increased by 1.37% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 49% of total sales [1] - The proportion of canned products in Chongqing Beer’s sales rose to 26%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points [1] Group 2: Cost Optimization - Major beer companies, including China Resources Beer, Budweiser APAC, Qingdao Beer, and Chongqing Beer, have all seen reductions in operating costs [2] - Qingdao Beer’s operating costs decreased by 7.72%, while Chongqing Beer’s operating costs saw a slight reduction of 0.03% [2] - The decline in costs is attributed to lower prices for barley, packaging materials, and effective cost control measures [2][4] Group 3: Raw Material Trends - The price of imported barley in China is expected to decline by approximately 20% compared to 2023, with a 10% decrease anticipated by the end of 2024 [7] - Glass prices in China are at a relative low over the past three years, and the average market price for corrugated paper has also seen a decline [8] - The overall trend of decreasing raw material costs is expected to continue into 2025, benefiting the beer industry [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.56%, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 29.95% [1]. - The company has shown strong performance in the premium beer segment, with a sales volume of 143.96 thousand tons in 2024, up 2.62% year-on-year, while the industry overall saw a decline of 0.6% [2]. - The net profit margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 14.5% in 2024, driven by a 3.5 percentage point increase in gross margin due to structural upgrades and cost reductions [3]. - The company is projected to continue its growth trajectory with revenue growth rates of 8%, 7%, and 6% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, and net profit growth rates of 18%, 14%, and 12% for the same period [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue is expected to reach 5.731 billion yuan, with a net profit of 810 million yuan, and an EBITDA of 1.204 billion yuan [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.28 yuan in 2023 to 0.37 yuan in 2024 [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 36.24 in 2023 to 27.89 in 2024, indicating improved valuation metrics [6]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from high-end, mid-range, and mass-market segments is expected to be 3.9 billion yuan, 1.24 billion yuan, and 370 million yuan, respectively, with high-end revenue growing by 14% [2]. - The company’s sales channels show significant growth in supermarkets and e-commerce, with revenues increasing by 46.7% and 20.5%, respectively, while night venues faced some pressure [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company achieved a reduction in unit costs by 2.5% year-on-year, with raw material costs decreasing by 4% [3]. - The gross margin for high-end beer products improved by 2.9 percentage points, highlighting the benefits of scale and cost efficiencies [3].

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 珠江啤酒（002461） 证券研究报告 结构升级延续，成本红利兑现 24 年业绩分拆：2024 年营业收入 57.31 亿元，同比+6.56%；归母净利 8.10 亿元，同比+29.95%；扣非净利 7.62 亿元，同比+36.79%。Q4 营业收入 8.44 亿元，同比+2.1%；归母净利 0.04 亿元，同比扭亏；扣非净利-0.06 亿元， 同比减亏 0.40 亿元。 高档双位数增长，量价跑赢行业。 24 年啤酒销量 143.96 万吨，同比+2.62%（行业产量同比-0.6%）；啤酒业务 吨价 3828 元，同比+4.3%。 1、分档次看：24 年高档/中档/大众化收入为 39.0/12.4/3.7 亿元，同比 +14.0%/-11.4%/+13.5%；高档（纯生、雪堡等）销量同比+13.96%（吨价持 平），带动高档收入占比+4.3pct 至 71%，结构持续优化。 2、分渠道看：24 年普通/商超/夜场/电商收入为 51.6/2.0/0.9/0.7 亿元，同 比+ 6.0%/+46.7%/-4.7%/+20.5%，夜场有所承压，商超&电商快速成长。 3、分区域看，24 年 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 董思远 徐爽 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 公司研究丨点评报告丨珠江啤酒（002461.SZ） [Table_Title] 珠江啤酒 2024 年年报点评：高档酒逆势扩容， 公司净利率再创新高 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年营业总收入 57.31 亿元（同比+6.56%）；归母净利润 8.1 亿元（同比+29.95%）， 扣非净利润 7.62 亿元（同比+36.79%），其中 2024Q4 营业总收入 8.44 亿元（同比+2.11%）； 归母净利润 373.51 万元，扣非净利润-628.77 万元。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title 珠江啤酒 2024 2] 年年报点评：高档酒逆势扩容， 公司净利率再创新高 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 珠江啤酒（002461.SZ） cjz ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer (002461) with a current price of 10.14 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant increase in both volume and price, leading to a notable improvement in profitability for the year [1]. - The total revenue for 2024 was 57.31 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.56%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.10 billion CNY, up 29.95% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.70 CNY per 10 shares to all shareholders [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Revenue for 2024 was 57.31 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 6.56%. The net profit was 8.10 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 29.95% [3][8]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 8.4 billion CNY, up 2.1% year-on-year, and net profit was 0.04 billion CNY, up 118.8% year-on-year [8]. - **Sales Volume and Pricing**: - The company sold 144,000 tons of beer in 2024, a 2.6% increase year-on-year. The average price per ton increased by 4.3% to 3,828 CNY [8]. - High-end product sales grew by 16% year-on-year, driven by the increasing market share of the pure draft series [8]. - **Cost and Margin Analysis**: - The gross margin for 2024 was 46.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 14.5% [8]. - The cost per ton decreased by 2.4% to 2,103 CNY, contributing to the overall margin improvement [8]. Future Outlook - The company has a clear "3+N" brand strategy aimed at enhancing the high-end product mix, which is expected to drive further revenue growth [9]. - Forecasts for 2025-2027 predict EPS of 0.43 CNY, 0.48 CNY, and 0.54 CNY, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 23, 21, and 19 [3][9].

（文/朱道义 编辑/张广凯） 扎根华南39年的啤酒巨头，近日交出了代表性区域型酒企的转型答卷。 对此，酒类分析师蔡学飞表示："虽然目前整体啤酒行业呈现复杂的发展趋势，但是品质消费的大方向 没有变化，消费者更加个性化与特色化的消费习惯正在深刻影响市场。珠江啤酒借此趋势推广了包括珠 江P9、珠江啤酒1985等在内的高端啤酒，不仅完善了产品线，还拉升了整体产品结构，提升了盈利能 力。" 但值得注意的是，经测算，珠江啤酒中高档产品的总营收占比已接近90%，这也意味着高端化战略未来 的上升空间已非常有限。 此外，更为严峻的是，珠江啤酒的全国化进程遭遇了滑铁卢，区域市场的依赖性凸显。去年，公司华南 地区贡献的营收为54.91亿元，同比增长了7.45%，占比则高达95.81%；非华南地区只有2.41亿元，同比 下滑了10.37%，占比则由2023年的4.98%进一步下降至4.19%。 这也导致珠江啤酒尽管在业绩方面的表现颇为亮眼，但因迟迟未能"走出去"，经营风险正在进一步加 剧。不过，蔡学飞指出，啤酒本身消费场景广泛，适应人群众多。随着消费的多元化，高端啤酒市场虽 然短期内受制于经济环境影响，但是在行业龙头企业的引领下，啤 ...