Summary of Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - The lithium market is experiencing volatility due to potential supply disruptions from lepidolite mine suspensions and a stronger-than-expected battery production pipeline [1][2] - A demand-driven landscape is emerging, with expectations of a price and margin recovery in battery materials extending into 2026-27 [1] Key Insights - **Demand Growth Forecast**: Battery demand is projected to grow by 31% YoY in 2026, with Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and Electric Vehicle (EV) demand expected to increase by 45% YoY and 26% YoY, respectively [2][9] - **Destocking Trends**: Lithium destocking is estimated at ~15,000 tons during November 2025, with expectations that this trend will continue, favoring average selling price (ASP) increases and margin recovery in the lithium sector [3][19] - **Price Projections**: Forecasts for lithium prices (including VAT) are set at Rmb85,000/ton and US$890/ton during FY26 [3] Company-Specific Updates Ganfeng Lithium - **Rating Upgrade**: Ganfeng Lithium's stock rating has been upgraded to Buy, with a target price of Rmb85.51, reflecting a strong outlook due to robust battery demand and improving cost competitiveness from low-cost upstream resources [4][26][28] - **Financial Model Update**: FY25 EPS has been revised down by 16%, while FY26-27 EPS is revised up by 17% and 20%, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [27][34] Tianqi Lithium - **Rating Upgrade**: Tianqi Lithium's stock rating has also been upgraded to Buy, with a target price of Rmb71.69, supported by anticipated ASP and margin recovery due to strong battery demand [37][39] - **Financial Model Update**: FY25 EPS has been revised down by 29%, while FY26-27 EPS is revised up by 2% and 14%, respectively, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook [38][45] Market Dynamics - **Supply Concerns**: The JXW mine's suspension has led to a decrease in lithium carbonate supply, but the resumption of operations is not expected to significantly alter the current destocking pattern [22][23] - **Backward Integration**: Battery manufacturers are increasingly integrating backward into lithium supply chains, indicating a potential upcycle in the lithium market [25] Additional Considerations - **Economic Factors**: The improving economics of ESS, particularly in China, are expected to support demand growth, with ESS projected to account for ~30% of total battery demand by 2030 [9][11] - **Investor Sentiment**: There are concerns regarding the sustainability of ESS demand growth, but industry checks suggest robust demand is likely to continue, driven by significant capacity expansions from major battery manufacturers [16][17] Conclusion - The lithium market is poised for recovery, driven by strong demand from the battery sector, particularly in ESS and EVs. Both Ganfeng and Tianqi Lithium are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, with upgraded ratings reflecting positive market sentiment and financial outlooks.

Market Overview - The energy metals sector experienced a decline of 1.32% on November 12, with Boqian New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included: - Jidian Mining (600711) closed at 11.10, up 0.63% with a trading volume of 1.1145 million shares and a transaction value of 1.234 billion [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) closed at 67.88, up 0.21% with a trading volume of 682,000 shares [1] - Boqian New Materials (605376) closed at 49.32, down 2.61% with a trading volume of 39,800 shares and a transaction value of 197 million [2] Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net outflow of 744 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 711 million [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks included: - Jidian Mining had a net inflow of 64.415 million from institutional investors [3] - Ganfeng Lithium experienced a net outflow of 67.128 million from institutional investors [3] - Boqian New Materials had a significant net outflow of 18.9704 million from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the electric equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The overall holding in the new energy sector has increased, with significant rises in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, energy storage, industrial control, power grids, and wind power sectors [1][2]. - The proportion of holdings in the new energy vehicle sector rose to 5.28%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1][19]. - The photovoltaic sector saw its holding proportion rise to 4.18%, up 1.43 percentage points, while the wind power sector increased to 3.46%, a rise of 0.14 percentage points [2][33]. - The energy storage sector's overall holding decreased to 5.60%, down 2.20 percentage points, with specific segments like temperature control and new energy storage showing increases [5][19]. Summary by Sections Overall New Energy Holdings Analysis - The proportion of new energy heavy holdings in total fund heavy holdings increased by 2.74 percentage points to 14.94% [14]. - The new energy sector's overall holding value accounted for 14.9% of total fund heavy holdings, indicating an overweight of 2.10 percentage points [19]. New Energy Vehicle Sector - The new energy vehicle sector's holding proportion rose to 5.28%, with upstream lithium mining and midstream components increasing, while complete vehicles and charging stations saw a decline [1][19]. - Upstream lithium mining holdings increased by 1.24 percentage points to 2.86% [24]. - Midstream holdings rose by 0.69 percentage points to 8.92%, with significant increases in structural components and lithium hexafluorophosphate [25]. Photovoltaic and Wind Power Sectors - The photovoltaic sector's holding proportion increased to 4.18%, with notable rises in silicon materials and battery holdings [33]. - The wind power sector's holding proportion rose to 3.46%, with increases across various components including complete machines and tower structures [2][19]. Industrial Control and Power Equipment - The industrial control and power electronics sector's overall holding increased to 6.21%, up 1.06 percentage points [4]. - The power equipment sector's holding rose to 1.81%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points [4]. Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage sector's overall holding decreased to 5.60%, with specific segments like temperature control and new energy storage increasing, while PCS holdings declined [5][19]. - Energy storage battery holdings increased by 2.04 percentage points to 7.97% [5].

Core Insights - JPMorgan has reversed its bearish stance on the lithium industry, acknowledging a significant underestimation of the explosive demand in the energy storage (ESS) market [1][3] - The bank upgraded its ratings for Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium from "Underweight" to "Neutral," indicating a major correction in its outlook on the lithium market fundamentals [1][3] - JPMorgan expects a supply shortage in the global lithium market in 2025 and 2026, prompting a substantial increase in its lithium price forecast for 2026 from RMB 70,000 per ton to RMB 90,000 per ton, a nearly 30% increase [1][6] Energy Storage Demand - The surge in energy storage demand is identified as a key driver of stock prices, outweighing the negative impacts of supply factors such as the resumption of operations at CATL's mines [3][4] - Energy storage batteries accounted for over 25% of global battery production since June, with 40% of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery production attributed to this segment [4] - JPMorgan forecasts a 30% year-on-year increase in global energy storage battery shipments by 2026, reaching approximately 770 GWh, driven by policy incentives and ongoing deployment of grid-level projects [4] Supply Dynamics - The resumption of production at CATL's Jiangxi mine, with an annual capacity of approximately 45,000 to 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), is expected to provide some relief to the current market tightness, but it will not be sufficient to fill the significant supply gap [5][6] - Even with the inclusion of the Jiangxi mine's output, the market is anticipated to remain in a state of shortage in 2025 and 2026 [6] - JPMorgan's supply forecasts remain largely unchanged, with slight increases in projections for 2029/2030, while noting that expansions in Australia and Chile may not fully offset delays in Brazil due to financing constraints [6] Price Target Adjustments - JPMorgan has raised its price targets for Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium significantly, with Ganfeng's A-shares target increased from RMB 30 to RMB 65, and H-shares from HKD 22 to HKD 48 [6] - Tianqi Lithium's A-shares target has been adjusted from RMB 30 to RMB 54, and H-shares from HKD 28 to HKD 50, reflecting the revised outlook on lithium prices and market conditions [6]

Group 1 - The global power battery installation volume from January to September 2025 is approximately 768.3 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 35% [1] - In the same period, global sales of new energy vehicles reached about 14.237 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26%, with a penetration rate of 22.1% [1] - The China Securities New Energy Vehicle Industry Index, which tracks 50 listed companies involved in the new energy vehicle sector, reflects the overall performance of leading companies in the industry [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities New Energy Vehicle Industry Index as of October 31, 2025, account for 53.56% of the index [1] - The top ten stocks include CATL (10.10%), Huichuan Technology (8.28%), BYD (-0.26%), and others, with varying weightings and daily price changes [2] - The New Energy Vehicle ETF closely tracks the China Securities New Energy Vehicle Industry Index and has shown a recovery in trading, with a maximum intraday increase of over 2.5% [1][4]

Group 1 - Tianqi Lithium Industries experienced a decline of 3.81% on November 11, with a trading volume of 4.801 billion yuan. The net financing buy was -39.82 million yuan, with a total financing and securities balance of 3.236 billion yuan as of the same date [1] - The company had a financing buy of 530 million yuan on November 11, with a financing balance of 3.226 billion yuan, representing 3.95% of the circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile level over the past year [1] - On the same day, the company repaid 10,500 shares in securities lending and sold 1,000 shares, with a selling amount of 55,300 yuan. The remaining securities lending volume was 188,200 shares, with a balance of 10.4112 million yuan, also above the 90th percentile level over the past year [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders of Tianqi Lithium reached 310,100, an increase of 14.52%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 12.68% to 4,759 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 7.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.50%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 103.16% to 180 million yuan [2] - Since its A-share listing, Tianqi Lithium has distributed a total of 7.868 billion yuan in dividends, with 7.137 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3 - As of September 30, 2025, the largest circulating shareholder was Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 68.1591 million shares, an increase of 3.3416 million shares from the previous period [3] - China Securities Finance Corporation held 27.8536 million shares, remaining unchanged, while several ETFs saw a decrease in holdings, including Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, E Fund CSI 300 ETF, and Huaxia CSI 300 ETF [3] - The Oriental New Energy Theme Mixed Fund exited the top ten circulating shareholders list [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence, with the main index rising by 0.53% while the ChiNext index fell by 0.92%, indicating a split in market sentiment driven by domestic positive news and international negative pressures [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, with a significant narrowing of the decline since August and a positive turn in October, signaling a rebound in industrial activity [1][4] - The surge in prices of key materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate (up 140%) and polysilicon (up 80%) reflects a broader recovery in corporate profitability, exemplified by Tianqi Lithium's turnaround from losses to profits [1][4] Group 2 - The recovery in PPI is translating into a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which increased by 0.2% year-on-year in October, indicating a positive cycle where manufacturing profits lead to higher employee incomes and increased consumer spending [4] - The stock market is witnessing a rally in cyclical sectors, particularly in upstream resource stocks and consumer sectors such as liquor, tourism, and dairy, which are benefiting from the recovery in end-consumer demand [4] Group 3 - The ChiNext index is struggling due to concerns over high valuations in the artificial intelligence sector, with warnings from institutions about potential bubbles in tech stocks [6] - Despite the short-term pullback in AI stocks, the long-term growth narrative remains intact, as indicated by recent government policies aimed at fostering AI development [6] - The current market dynamics suggest a preference for more certain cyclical themes over speculative tech investments, leading to a divergence in performance between the main board and the ChiNext [6] Group 4 - The strong performance of the A-share market is not unfounded, as it reflects anticipations of economic recovery in the fourth quarter, despite a slight slowdown in GDP growth in the third quarter [8] - Investors face a dilemma between chasing the currently hot consumer sectors or positioning themselves in the adjusting tech stocks, highlighting the ongoing uncertainty in market trends [8]

Core Insights - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a strong rebound due to surging demand for energy storage, supply uncertainties, and ongoing inventory depletion [1] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has shown significant volatility, reaching a low of 59,900 yuan/ton in June 2023 and rebounding to 82,400 yuan/ton by November 11, 2023, marking a 37.59% increase [1] Price Trends - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has fluctuated dramatically over the past five years, peaking at 567,600 yuan/ton in November 2022 before a prolonged decline [1] - The current price stabilization follows a "roller coaster" trend, with supply-demand mismatches and inventory adjustments contributing to price volatility [1] Industry Performance - Major lithium companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium have reported a return to profitability in Q3 2023, with Ganfeng Lithium's net profit at 557 million yuan and Tianqi Lithium's at 95.485 million yuan [2] - The average breakeven price for lithium carbonate is considered to be around 70,000 yuan/ton, with current prices providing support for cost-advantaged companies [2] Future Outlook - Short-term demand from downstream battery manufacturers is expected to support lithium carbonate prices [2] - Long-term projections suggest prices may fluctuate between 70,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton, with the upper limit reflecting the need for new capital investment in Australian mines [2] Strategic Initiatives - Companies are actively seizing opportunities during this upward price cycle, with initiatives such as Qinghai Salt Lake Industry's new lithium salt project and Ganfeng Lithium's expansion in lithium resource acquisition and processing capacity [2][3] - Emphasis on technological innovation and efficient resource utilization is crucial for the industry's transformation and upgrading [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries has confirmed that its lithium concentrate production capacity primarily comes from the Greenbushes lithium spodumene mine, which currently has a total production capacity of 1.62 million tons per year [1] Group 1: Production Capacity - The Greenbushes lithium spodumene mine has four lithium concentrate processing plants, with a total established capacity of 1.62 million tons per year [1] - The company is currently constructing the third chemical-grade lithium concentrate plant, which is expected to be completed by December 2025 [1] - Once the third chemical-grade lithium concentrate plant is operational, the total production capacity of the Greenbushes lithium concentrate project will reach approximately 2.14 million tons per year [1] Group 2: Lithium Chemical Products - The company has six operational lithium chemical product production bases located in Sichuan, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Australia, and Sichuan, with a combined lithium chemical product capacity of 121,600 tons per year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industry announced on November 11 that as of October 31, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders will be 282,648 [2] Summary by Category - Company Information - Tianqi Lithium Industry has confirmed that the number of A-share shareholders is projected to reach 282,648 by October 31, 2025 [2] - Industry Context - The announcement reflects the growing interest and participation in the lithium sector, which is critical for electric vehicle and battery production [2]