Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [12] Core Insights - The report reviews the regulatory policies and effects of irrational competition in the express delivery industry in 2021, aiming to forecast the potential impacts of the current "anti-involution" measures on the industry [2][7] - In 2021, under the "common prosperity" initiative, regulations focused on "protecting the legal rights of couriers," leading to a significant recovery in industry profitability and stock prices after major express delivery companies announced a network-wide fee increase [2][7] - Looking ahead to 2025, the report anticipates a decline in single-package profits and suggests that measures such as price guidance in grain-producing areas and curbing "punitive management" could effectively transition companies from price wars to value competition [2][7] Summary by Sections Regulatory Review of 2021 - The report highlights that in 2021, the express delivery industry faced severe irrational competition, prompting regulatory actions to stabilize the market and protect couriers' rights [21][30] - Major express companies raised their fees in September 2021, which helped restore profitability and stock performance [39] Outlook for 2025 - The report indicates that the express delivery industry is experiencing renewed price competition, with average package prices dropping to around 2 yuan, and some areas seeing prices fall below 1 yuan [40][48] - The report emphasizes the need for regulatory measures to ensure fair competition and protect couriers' rights, suggesting that the industry is at a critical juncture [48] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, and Jitu Express, highlighting potential improvements in profitability and valuation recovery opportunities [2][7][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for SF Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the express delivery sector [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry showed robust performance in the first half of 2025, with a total business volume of 956.4 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.3%. The total revenue reached 7187.8 billion yuan, growing by 10.1% year-on-year [3][5]. - The report highlights that the demand for express delivery is driven by trends such as the increasing volume of small packages, reverse logistics, and the benefits from lower-tier markets. The growth rate of express delivery volume significantly outpaces the growth of retail sales and online retail sales [6]. - Price competition in the industry is intensifying due to the trend of smaller packages and ongoing price wars. However, the report suggests that the intensity of price competition may be controllable due to policy guidance aimed at promoting high-quality development [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In June 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 168.7 billion pieces, with revenue of 1263.2 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.8% and 9.0%, respectively [3]. - For the first half of 2025, the express delivery revenue was 7187.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while the business volume was 956.4 billion pieces, growing by 19.3% [3][5]. Company Performance - In June 2025, SF Express reported a revenue of 199.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The business volume was 14.60 billion pieces, growing by 31.8% year-on-year [4]. - For the first half of 2025, SF Express's revenue was 1091.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, and a business volume of 78.13 billion pieces, reflecting a growth of 25.7% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery sector is currently undervalued, with expectations of continued growth driven by the expanding e-commerce market and new demands from lower-tier markets. It recommends focusing on leading companies in the e-commerce express delivery sector, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, Shentong Express, and Jitu Express, as well as the comprehensive logistics leader SF Express [7].

申通快递股份有限公司 2025 年 6 月经营简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 根据《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第3号—行业信息披露》的有关规定，公司现 披露2025年6月份相关数据信息如下： | 项 目 | 2025年6月 | 同比增长 | | --- | --- | --- | | 快递服务业务收入（亿元） | 43.41 | 10.15% | | 完成业务量（亿票） | 21.84 | 11.14% | | 快递服务单票收入（元） | 1.99 | -1.00% | 证券代码：002468 证券简称：申通快递 公告编号：2025-054 上述快递服务单票收入计算如有差异为四舍五入原因所致。上述数据未经审计，与定期报告 披露的数据之间可能存在差异，请以公司定期报告为准。 特此公告。 申通快递股份有限公司董事会 2025年7月19日 ...

Core Insights - The National Postal Administration conducted a survey to monitor express delivery service quality and promote industry improvement, focusing on customer satisfaction and timely delivery rates for the second quarter of 2025 [1] Group 1: Survey Overview - The survey included nine express delivery brands: Postal Express, SF Express, Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, Shentong Express, JD Express, Debon Express, and Jitu Express [1] - The survey covered 50 cities, including municipalities, provincial capitals, and 19 cities with high express delivery volumes [1] - A total of 9,211 valid samples were collected for customer satisfaction evaluation across five service aspects, while 2.4 million samples were collected for timely delivery testing [1] Group 2: Customer Satisfaction Results - The overall customer satisfaction score for express delivery services in Q2 2025 was 85.1, an increase of 1.3 points year-on-year [2] - SF Express and JD Express received the highest satisfaction scores among brands [3] - Regions with high satisfaction scores included Shanghai, Beijing, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu, all scoring above 86 [3] - Satisfaction scores for order services via unified customer service hotline reached 90.8, up by 2.0 points year-on-year [3] - User satisfaction scores for delivery service timeliness and quality were 86.9 and 86.4, reflecting increases of 4.7 and 1.7 points respectively [3] Group 3: Timeliness and Delivery Rates - The average total time for express delivery services in Q2 2025 was 51.08 hours, a reduction of 1.99 hours year-on-year [4] - Breakdown of average times showed: - Processing at the shipping location: 8.44 hours (up 0.34 hours) - Transportation: 30.98 hours (down 1.44 hours) - Processing at the destination: 8.89 hours (down 0.77 hours) - Delivery: 2.77 hours (down 0.11 hours) [4] - The 72-hour delivery success rate was 86.85%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Postal Express and SF Express had the highest 72-hour delivery success rates among brands [6]

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The shipping industry is expected to see a divergence in freight rates, with crude oil rates softening while refined oil rates are recovering, indicating a potential bottoming out of oil shipping rates during the summer [1] - The current supply-demand dynamics suggest that marginal changes in demand could have a multiplier effect on freight rates, leading to a recommendation for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1] - The container shipping sector is facing pressure on profitability due to ongoing tariff policies and a subdued economic outlook in Europe and the US, with a recommendation to monitor COSCO Shipping Holdings for potential alpha opportunities [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector has entered the peak summer travel season, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 3.1% compared to the previous week, and overall flight volumes reaching 112.3% of 2019 levels [2] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, while the passenger load factor has improved by 1.4 percentage points to 84.1% [2] - Investment recommendations include closely tracking ticket price performance during the summer peak and considering opportunities in airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][5] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy released on July 1 aims to curb excessive competition in the express delivery sector, which is currently characterized by severe price competition [3] - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to significantly reduce costs for leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express, with potential cost savings of approximately 2000 yuan per vehicle per month for SF Express [3][4] - Investment recommendations focus on SF Express due to its strong recovery in revenue growth and cost-saving measures, while also monitoring ZTO Express and Yunda Holdings for potential opportunities [3][5][6] Group 4: Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand and high-dividend sectors, recommending companies with stable operations and controllable risks, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and China Southern Airlines [5] - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of 21.5% for the year, driven by strong demand from e-commerce platforms [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes and the stability of franchisees in the express delivery industry to capitalize on the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics industry [12] Core Insights - The logistics industry is experiencing a "DeepSeek moment" with significant technological breakthroughs across various segments, including branch, trunk, terminal, and management [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of adopting new technologies to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in the express delivery sector [11][28] Summary by Sections Introduction: The Arrival of the "DeepSeek Moment" in the Logistics Industry - The logistics industry is witnessing substantial advancements due to improved algorithm efficiency and rapid technological iterations, leading to significant breakthroughs in various operational segments [7][18] - Key drivers for these advancements include the massive scale of the Chinese express delivery market, intense competition, and high labor cost ratios [28] Branch Segment: The Growth Year for Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - Leading express companies are initiating a surge in unmanned logistics vehicle orders, driven by reduced core component costs and improved algorithm efficiency [8][33] - The monthly operational cost of unmanned logistics vehicles can be as low as 2000 yuan, significantly lower than the average monthly salary of drivers [33][40] Trunk Segment: Smart Assisted Driving Initiates Mass Production - Smart assisted driving trucks are being deployed on a large scale by leading express companies, addressing safety and cost issues in traditional trunk transportation [9][32] - The potential market space for smart trucks is substantial, with projected sales of 1.03 million heavy trucks in 2024 [9] Terminal Segment: Mode Transformation Drives Cost Reduction - Express companies are innovating their terminal operations to reduce costs significantly, with models like direct linking from transfer centers to terminal stations [10][32] - The report highlights that if the direct link ratio reaches 40%, terminal costs could be reduced by 0.12 yuan per package [10] Management Segment: Digital Decision-Making Promotes Cost Reduction - Leading companies are developing industry-specific AI models to enhance management efficiency and reduce operational costs [10][32] - The integration of big data and AI technologies is driving improvements in decision-making and resource utilization [10] Investment Recommendations: Technological Waves Reshape Logistics Costs - The report recommends prioritizing investments in direct logistics companies and leading express firms, as well as components and operators related to unmanned commercial vehicles [11][32] - Companies like SF Express and Aneng Logistics are highlighted as key players benefiting from these technological advancements [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on ZTO Express (ZTO US, TP USD22.00) and STO Express (002468 CH, TP RMB14.10), while J&T Express (1519 HK, Hold, TP HKD9.00) is seen as having upside potential [6][10][49]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector in China is expected to benefit from new policy guidance aimed at preventing aggressive price competition, which has previously led to an 8% decline in average revenue per parcel (ARPP) despite a 20% increase in volume [2][10]. - Historical trends indicate that the sector has re-rated positively following government interventions to stabilize pricing, with a notable 48% rally in September 2021 after delivery fee increases [4][10]. - The current consensus has cut ZTO's earnings estimates by 15% due to intensified price competition, resulting in a forward PE multiple of 10.4x, significantly below its historical average of 19.2x, suggesting potential downside protection for the stock [3][10]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The State Post Bureau's recent conference emphasized tighter regulations to curb aggressive pricing strategies, which has already led to a 5-10% increase in share prices for express delivery companies [2][10]. - The report anticipates that if express delivery companies respond to the new policy with price hikes, a sustainable re-rating of the sector could occur [4]. Financial Projections - ZTO is projected to achieve 9% earnings growth by 2025, with a 21% increase in volume, despite an expected 11% decline in ARPP [5]. - A sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1 percentage point improvement in ARPP could lead to a 3 percentage point increase in net profit growth [5]. Company Ratings and Targets - ZTO Express is highlighted as the domestic leader with a target price of USD22.00, while STO Express is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of RMB14.10, benefiting from potential regulatory interventions [6][10]. - J&T Express is rated as a "Hold" with a target price of HKD9.00, reflecting its position as a laggard in the market but with potential upside as competition eases [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in stock prices of major express delivery companies in the A-share market, such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, is attributed to the government's stance against "involution" in the industry, aiming to enhance regulation and service quality [1][13]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The State Post Bureau emphasized the need for unified regulations and opposition to "involution-style" competition, which has led to increased market interest in the express delivery sector [1]. - The express delivery industry has seen a decline in average revenue per ticket over the past three years due to intensified price competition and the trend of smaller e-commerce packages [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - By May 2025, YTO Express's average revenue per ticket is projected to drop from 2.42 yuan to 2.12 yuan, Shentong Express from 2.23 yuan to 1.95 yuan, and Yunda Express from 2.29 yuan to 1.92 yuan, reflecting a decline of 4% to 12% [4][6]. - YTO Express has maintained the highest average revenue per ticket in 2023, benefiting from high-end timely products and service quality improvements, while Yunda Express has the lowest due to management issues [6][10]. Group 3: Profitability Analysis - YTO Express leads in average profit per ticket due to effective cost management and synergy in air freight, while Shentong Express showed improvement in 2024, with profits rising from 0.019 yuan to 0.046 yuan due to reduced costs [8][10]. - The overall profit performance of these companies has been declining, with Yunda Express facing significant pressure from competition and cost management failures [8][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The express delivery sector has experienced a "volume increase, price drop" phenomenon, with a projected business volume of 1,750.8 billion pieces in 2024, a 32.6% increase from 2023 [9]. - Shentong Express is expected to have the fastest growth rate in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 29.83%, driven by capacity expansion and collaboration within the Alibaba ecosystem [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market's recent enthusiasm for YTO and Shentong Express stocks is seen as a reaction to long-standing industry pressures rather than fundamental changes in company performance [13]. - Both companies are positioned to benefit first if the government's anti-involution policies lead to tangible changes in the industry [13].

Group 1 - Major express delivery companies have removed the option for users to set "fire hydrant" as a delivery point in their WeChat mini-programs due to violations of fire safety laws [1][2] - Seven out of eight major express companies have corrected their practices, with only Cainiao Express yet to comply fully [1] - Companies like JD Express and SF Express have implemented warnings in their systems to inform users about the safety hazards of using "fire hydrant" as a delivery location [1][2] Group 2 - Some companies still retain options for "water meter box" and "electric meter box" in their delivery preferences, which may also pose safety risks [2] - Customer service representatives from various companies have indicated that delivery personnel are trained to avoid placing packages in unsafe locations, and will refuse requests to deliver to fire hydrants [3] - If customers insist on using "fire hydrant" for delivery, some companies will remind them of the safety risks, while others may allow for complaints if the delivery is not made as requested [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the need for the express delivery industry to shift towards high-quality development, as the State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition and aims to improve service quality [4] - The express delivery sector is currently experiencing a decline in per-package revenue, with major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong showing year-on-year decreases in revenue per package [4] - Jitu's Southeast Asian market has seen significant growth, with a total package volume of 7.392 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [5] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for growth [12] - The shipping sector is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with specific recommendations for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery market is facing intense competition, with major players experiencing a decline in revenue per package [4] - The report suggests that regulatory changes could help improve the situation by reducing low-cost competition and enhancing the performance of leading companies [4][12] Airline Industry - The airline sector is characterized by long-term low supply growth, but demand is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery [12] - Key companies to watch include China National Aviation Holding, Southern Airlines, and HNA Group [12] Shipping and Ports - The report indicates a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts [12] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for their growth potential in the shipping market [12] Road and Rail - The report notes that the Daqin Railway experienced a year-on-year decrease in freight volume in June 2025, while overall logistics operations remain stable [11][12] - Companies like Zhongyuan Expressway and Sichuan Chengyu are highlighted for their growth potential due to infrastructure developments [12]