Core Viewpoint - The "Double 11" shopping festival has officially started, with major e-commerce platforms launching promotional rules to stimulate consumer shopping enthusiasm, while logistics companies are preparing for the upcoming peak in logistics demand [1][2]. Group 1: Logistics Preparation - The express delivery industry is entering a "preparation mode" to ensure logistics support for the online consumption market during the "Double 11" shopping festival [2]. - Yunda Holdings has emphasized the need for safety and service quality during the peak season, preparing resources such as personnel, vehicles, and storage in advance [2]. - Shentong Express has initiated a large-scale deployment of "AI outlet managers" to enhance service quality and support logistics operations during the peak [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The "Double 11" has become a critical annual test for the express delivery industry, with last year's event seeing approximately 12.082 billion packages collected, a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [4]. - The trend is shifting from short-term bursts to long-term promotions, prompting logistics companies to focus on systematic capability building rather than emergency expansions [4]. - Major express companies are advancing their smart upgrades, focusing on improving sorting operations, intelligent routing, and AI customer service to enhance service quality [5]. Group 3: Service Quality Enhancement - Companies like YTO Express are responding to the call against "involution" competition by embracing value-based competition and accelerating smart upgrades [5]. - SF Express has developed its own "logistics decision-making model" and "large language model" to improve operational efficiency through automation and intelligent technologies [5]. - Experts suggest that express companies can enhance service quality by building layered service systems and developing customized product combinations [6].

Core Insights - The "Double 11" shopping festival has officially started, with major e-commerce platforms launching promotional rules to stimulate consumer shopping enthusiasm [1] - Express delivery companies are actively preparing for the logistics peak associated with the shopping festival, ensuring robust logistics support [2] Group 1: Express Delivery Companies' Preparations - The express delivery industry has entered a "combat mode" in anticipation of the "Double 11" shopping festival, focusing on logistics support for online consumption [2] - Yunda Holdings has emphasized the need for safety, service quality, and efficiency during the peak season, preparing resources such as personnel, vehicles, and warehouses in advance [2] - Shentong Express has initiated a large-scale deployment of "AI outlet managers" to enhance service quality and efficiency during the logistics peak [3] Group 2: Industry Trends and Developments - The "Double 11" has evolved into a long-term promotional event, leading express delivery companies to shift from emergency expansion to systematic capability building [4] - Major express companies are advancing their smart transformation, focusing on improving sorting operations, intelligent routing, and AI customer service to enhance service quality [5] - Companies like YTO Express are responding to the call against "involution" competition by embracing value competition strategies and accelerating smart upgrades [5] Group 3: Service Quality Enhancement - Experts suggest that express delivery companies should build a layered service system and develop customized product combinations to improve service quality [6] - The integration of smart lockers, service stations, and home delivery can enhance service reach and quality [6]

Core Insights - The logistics industry is preparing for the peak demand during the "Double 11" shopping festival, with significant increases in package volumes expected [1][2] - Companies are investing in automation and smart technologies to enhance efficiency and cope with the rising demand [4][7] Group 1: Peak Demand Preparation - The first peak of express delivery is anticipated from October 22 to 25, with some delivery points expecting package volumes to double compared to last year [1][2] - Last year's first peak saw delivery volumes at approximately 48,000 to 50,000 packages, which is expected to be matched this year [2] - Companies like JD Logistics, Shentong, and Jitu are enhancing their automation capabilities to compete on delivery speed [1] Group 2: Workforce and Resource Management - Delivery points are preparing by hiring temporary workers and increasing vehicle capacity, with some locations adding up to four delivery trucks [2][3] - The average daily delivery volume at some points is around 25,000 to 26,000 packages, with expectations to reach similar levels as last year [2] - Delivery personnel are required to start work earlier and finish later during the peak period to manage the increased workload [2][3] Group 3: Automation and Efficiency - Many delivery points are investing in automated equipment to improve operational efficiency, with some reporting a 30% increase in sorting efficiency [4][7] - Automation allows for reduced working hours for delivery personnel, with some able to finish their shifts earlier due to improved processes [4] - Companies are also exploring the use of unmanned vehicles to further reduce labor costs by 20% to 30% during peak times [4][5] Group 4: Industry Trends - The logistics industry is expected to continue evolving towards automation, unmanned operations, and specialization, raising the entry barriers for new players [8] - The total express delivery volume in China is projected to reach approximately 1.45 trillion packages this year, with revenues exceeding one trillion yuan [8] - By 2025, the total logistics volume is expected to surpass 590 billion tons, with express delivery volumes potentially exceeding 2 trillion packages [8]

Core Viewpoint - Shentong Express has experienced a decline in stock price recently, despite a significant increase in its stock price year-to-date, indicating potential volatility in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 21, Shentong Express's stock price was 15.62 CNY per share, down 2.19% during the trading session [1]. - The stock has increased by 55.21% year-to-date, but has seen a decline of 11.60% in the last five trading days and 14.41% in the last twenty days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a trading board for stocks with significant trading volume) once this year, with a net buy of 14.11 million CNY on July 25 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shentong Express reported revenue of 25.025 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 453 million CNY, up 3.73% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.614 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 131 million CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shentong Express was 42,500, an increase of 11.27% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder was 35,095, a decrease of 10.13% from the previous period [2]. - The fifth-largest circulating shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, reduced its holdings by 19.72 million shares to 43.2118 million shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "Double 11" shopping festival is expected to significantly increase logistics pressure on courier companies, prompting them to enhance automation and operational efficiency to manage the surge in parcel volume [1][7]. Group 1: Peak Delivery Periods - The first peak delivery period for this year's "Double 11" is anticipated from October 22 to 25, with a second peak from November 3 to 7 [2]. - Last year's first peak saw parcel volumes at courier stations reach approximately 48,000 to 50,000 packages, which is expected to double this year [2]. - Courier companies are preparing by increasing staff and vehicle capacity, with some stations adding temporary workers and additional delivery vehicles [2][3]. Group 2: Automation and Efficiency - Many courier stations are investing in automated equipment to improve operational efficiency, with some upgrading sorting lines to increase sorting capacity from 5,000 to over 7,000 packages per hour, achieving a more than 30% efficiency improvement [4][7]. - The use of automated delivery lockers is also being expanded, which can enhance package retrieval efficiency by 30% and reduce the need for manual labor at delivery stations [5][6]. - Companies like JD Logistics and Shentong are heavily investing in automation technologies, with JD Logistics implementing a smart device cluster that improves delivery efficiency by nearly 20% [7][8]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The courier industry is expected to continue evolving towards greater automation, intelligence, and specialization, with increasing barriers to entry for new players [8]. - The total express delivery volume in China is projected to reach approximately 1.45 trillion packages in the first three quarters of this year, with revenues exceeding 1 trillion yuan [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express logistics is positive due to healthy competition [3][13] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in VLCC freight rates anticipated in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is seeing stable demand growth, with supply chain issues leading to increased costs for airlines. The overall passenger demand is projected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth [9][14] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In September 2025, major express companies reported improved performance, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda achieving business volumes of 2.627 billion, 2.187 billion, and 2.110 billion pieces, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.64%, 9.46%, and 3.63% [3][27] - The average revenue per piece for these companies also saw increases, indicating a trend of rising prices in the express delivery sector [3][27] Shipping and Ports - The implementation of new port fees between China and the US is expected to create a dual market structure, granting strategic pricing power to compliant shipping capacities [5] - China has secured pricing power for iron ore, marking a significant shift in global commodity trade dynamics [6] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 12.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [7] Aviation - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that supply chain bottlenecks are delaying aircraft production, leading to increased costs for airlines, estimated to exceed $11 billion in 2025 [9] - Chinese airlines collectively oppose the US Department of Transportation's proposed flight restrictions, highlighting concerns over operational impacts [10] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were reported to be running smoothly, with significant increases in highway freight traffic [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance electric vehicle charging infrastructure along highways by 2027 [12] Overall Market Performance - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.47% [18]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a recovery in both volume and pricing due to anti-involution measures, with significant revenue growth observed among major players in September. Group 1: Performance Metrics - SF Express achieved a business volume of 1.504 billion parcels, a growth rate of 31.81%, with revenue reaching 20.854 billion yuan, up 14.21%, but a decrease in average revenue per parcel by 13.31% to 13.87 yuan [1] - YTO Express reported a business volume of 2.627 billion parcels, a growth of 13.64%, with revenue of 5.799 billion yuan, up 14.89%, and an average revenue per parcel of 2.21 yuan, an increase of 1.09% [1] - Yunda Express had a business volume of 2.110 billion parcels, growing by 3.63%, with revenue of 4.252 billion yuan, up 4.14%, and an average revenue per parcel of 2.02 yuan, a slight increase of 0.50% [1] - Shentong Express reported a business volume of 2.187 billion parcels, a growth of 9.46%, with revenue of 4.633 billion yuan, up 14.89%, and an average revenue per parcel of 2.12 yuan, an increase of 4.95% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The industry is seeing a slowdown in growth rates due to price increases, with SF Express leading the market for seven consecutive months, achieving an average daily volume of over 50 million parcels in September [2] - The State Post Bureau anticipates a year-on-year growth of approximately 12% in express delivery volume and 7% in revenue for September, with total volume expected to reach around 1.45 trillion parcels and revenue exceeding 1 trillion yuan for the first three quarters [2] - The anti-involution price increase actions have been expanding nationwide since July, showing positive effects on the performance of major express companies as the peak season approaches [2] Group 3: Challenges for Frontline Operations - While headquarters are benefiting from anti-involution measures, frontline outlets are facing varied situations, with some reporting increased losses due to rising shipping costs without a corresponding decrease in volume assessments [4] - Many outlets are struggling with the implementation of price increases, with some areas not fully passing on the increased costs to customers, leading to concerns about profitability during the peak season [5] - Despite the overall price increases, frontline outlets are still waiting for adjustments in delivery fees, with some regions only seeing minor increases, which do not alleviate the financial pressures faced by these outlets [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the express delivery industry as "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The express delivery industry continues to show growth, with September business volume increasing by approximately 12% year-on-year, and revenue expected to grow by around 7% [3] - The average revenue per package in September was 7.58 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3% [3] - The report highlights a significant upward trend in pricing due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts within the industry, leading to improved profitability for express companies [3] Summary by Sections Business Volume and Revenue - YTO Express reported a business volume of 2.627 billion packages in September, a year-on-year increase of 13.64%, with an average revenue per package of 2.21 yuan, up 1.4% [1] - Shentong Express completed 2.187 billion packages, a 9.46% increase year-on-year, with an average revenue per package of 2.12 yuan, up 4.95% [1] - Yunda reported a business volume of 2.110 billion packages, a 3.63% increase year-on-year, with an average revenue per package of 2.02 yuan, up 0.50% [1] Pricing Trends - The report notes that the average package price has increased significantly, with Yunda seeing a month-on-month increase of 0.10 yuan, YTO and Shentong both increasing by 0.06 yuan [3] - The report anticipates that the third quarter will see express companies begin to realize profits from price increases, with a focus on the profit elasticity in the fourth quarter [3] Market Outlook - The report suggests three potential scenarios for the future of the express delivery industry: 1. Continued price recovery leading to significant dividends while ensuring the rights of delivery personnel 2. Ongoing competitive dynamics in various regions, resulting in increased industry differentiation 3. Potential for higher-level consolidation and supply-side optimization [3] - Companies recommended for investment include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Jitu Express, with a focus on Zhongtong Express and Yunda [3]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery sector is showing signs of recovery with increased business volume and revenue per package, particularly in September, indicating a positive trend as the peak season approaches [1] Group 1: Company Performance - ZTO Express (02057) saw its stock price rise by over 4% during trading, closing at 148.2 HKD with a transaction volume of 185 million HKD [1] - YTO Express (600233) reported a business volume of 2.627 billion packages in September, a year-on-year increase of 13.64%, with revenue per package at 2.21 RMB, up 1.09% [1] - Shentong Express (002468) completed 2.187 billion packages in September, reflecting a 9.46% year-on-year growth, with revenue per package at 2.12 RMB, an increase of 4.95% [1] - Yunda Express (002120) achieved a business volume of 2.110 billion packages in September, a 3.63% year-on-year increase, with revenue per package at 2.02 RMB, up 0.50% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Huachuang Securities noted that the average revenue per package for the three major express companies improved from July to September, with Shentong increasing by 0.15 RMB, YTO by 0.13 RMB, and Yunda by 0.11 RMB [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan anticipates that the third quarter will see express companies begin to realize profit recovery from price increases, with a focus on profit elasticity in the fourth quarter [1] - The report indicates that the average revenue per package was at a low point in July, but has shown improvement in August and September due to reduced competition, suggesting a positive outlook for the upcoming peak season in October [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is experiencing a significant increase in pricing, with September showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 12% in business volume and a 7% increase in revenue [3]. - The report highlights that the average single ticket revenue for September was 7.58 yuan per item, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3% [3]. - The report anticipates that the third quarter will see express companies begin to realize profit recovery due to price increases, with a focus on profit elasticity in the fourth quarter [3]. - The report outlines three scenarios for the new phase of price competition in the industry, including the potential for sustained profit recovery and significant dividends, continued competitive dynamics in certain regions, and the possibility of higher-level mergers and acquisitions [3]. Summary by Sections Business Volume and Revenue - In September, major express companies reported the following business volumes: YTO Express at 2.627 billion items (up 13.64%), Shentong Express at 2.187 billion items (up 9.46%), and Yunda at 2.110 billion items (up 3.63%) [3]. - The average single ticket revenue for YTO was 2.21 yuan (up 1.4%), for Shentong was 2.12 yuan (up 4.95%), and for Yunda was 2.02 yuan (up 0.50%) [3]. Price Trends - The report notes a significant month-on-month increase in pricing across the industry, with Yunda showing the largest recovery in single ticket pricing [3]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of price increases driven by the reduction of internal competition within the industry [3]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is entering a new phase of competition, with a focus on the upcoming quarterly reports and peak season pricing [3]. - Companies recommended for investment include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Jitu Express, with a focus on Zhongtong Express and Yunda for their competitive advantages [3]. Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the transportation sector, detailing their market capitalization and projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 [4].