当收寄快递成为越来越多人生活习惯时，快递费用却悄悄的"背刺"起了消费者。 近期，有媒体报道，一个2.7公斤的包裹，在多家快递公司手中，重量会"神奇"地变成3公斤甚至4公 斤。这多出来的"空气重量"，最终却需要消费者掏腰包买单。 随着电子商务的发展，近十年来我国快递业务量增加了8倍，买买买、拆寄快递成了大多数人的生活常 态。但在行业繁荣的背后，这种"向上取整"的计价方式，却在悄悄"吸血"，也正在成为撕开行业规范的 缺口。 "就多收几块钱，没必要计较"，或许很多人对快递称重的"四舍五入"习以为常。可当全国人均年快递支 出逼近千元，1kg与1.1kg的计费差被乘以1751亿件的业务量，这就不再是个小数目了。 "向上取整"合规吗？快递收费明细是如何规定的？行业规定只是一纸空谈吗？面对向上收费，消费者又 该如何保障自己的权益呢？ 十年业务量增加8倍 快递费成日常支出 早上刚拆完网购的早餐机，中午就把穿小的童装寄给老家侄女，下午又收到公司寄来的文件——这大概 是现在很多人的日常。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 随着电子商务的发展，我国的快递业务量一路高歌猛进，从2015年到20 ...

Group 1 - The express delivery industry is experiencing sustained high demand, with an expected business volume growth rate of around 15% for the foreseeable future [1] - The current competitive landscape is expected to last for a long time, with anti-involution policies favoring mid-to-late stage companies, leading to a potential easing of competition in the second half of the year [1] - There is a recommendation to focus on the efficiency improvements in e-commerce express delivery, as factors like autonomous vehicles may enhance the competitive advantage of mid-to-late stage companies [1] Group 2 - The express delivery industry's price competition has gone through four phases: 1) moderate price competition (2016-2019), 2) intense price wars (2019-2021), 3) stabilization phase (2021-2022), and 4) a return to competition since 2023 [2] - Historical anti-involution policies have included multiple measures from April to September 2021 aimed at curbing vicious price wars, leading to a price rebound starting in September 2021 [2] - The current industry fundamentals align with anti-involution demands, with clear low-price support, but the likelihood of a comprehensive price increase similar to 2021 is low due to ongoing competition [3] Group 3 - If a price increase occurs, e-commerce express delivery companies could see significant profit elasticity, with past data showing substantial profit rebounds following price hikes [4] - Profit margins for major companies post-price increase in 2022 showed significant year-on-year improvements, with ZTO Express up by 26% and YTO Express up by 105% [4] - Under hypothetical price increases of 3-10%, the profit elasticity for various companies ranges significantly, indicating that mid-to-late stage companies may experience more pronounced profit elasticity due to lower profit baselines [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - In June, SF Express reported a revenue of 19.962 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.24%, with a business volume of 1.460 billion parcels, up 31.77%, but a single ticket revenue of 13.67 yuan, down 13.32% [1] - YTO Express achieved a revenue of 5.527 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, with a business volume of 2.627 billion parcels, up 19.34%, while single ticket revenue decreased by 6.69% to 2.10 yuan [1] - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 4.341 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 10.15%, with a business volume of 2.184 billion parcels, up 11.14%, and a single ticket revenue of 1.99 yuan, down 1.00% [1] - Yunda Express had a revenue of 4.149 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a business volume of 2.173 billion parcels, up 7.41%, and a single ticket revenue of 1.91 yuan, down 4.50% [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - In the first half of the year, YTO Express led the sector with a revenue of 34.2 billion yuan and a business volume of 14.86 billion parcels, while Shentong and Yunda's revenue and business volume were closely matched, with Yunda at 24.904 billion yuan and 12.726 billion parcels, and Shentong at 24.868 billion yuan and 12.347 billion parcels [2] - The industry is currently experiencing intensified low-price competition due to severe homogenization, but the "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the situation in the second half of the year, promoting a new balance among regulation, competition, profitability, and quality [2] - The National Postal Administration has emphasized the need for enhanced industry regulation and the establishment of market rules to combat "involution-style" competition, indicating a potential shift towards higher quality development in the express delivery sector [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector shows significant divergence in June data, with a focus on the industry's anti-involution process [3] - The express logistics market is expanding, supported by the national strategy to boost domestic demand, with a year-on-year growth of 15.8% in express delivery volume in June 2025 [5] - The performance of major express companies varies, with SF Express maintaining a business volume growth rate of over 30%, while other companies like YTO Express and Yunda Express show slower growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with total revenue of 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.0% [5][24] - Major express companies' performance in June: YTO Express (2.627 billion pieces, +19.34%), Yunda Express (2.173 billion pieces, +7.41%), SF Express (1.460 billion pieces, +31.77%) [4][28] - The market share for these companies is 15.6% for YTO, 12.9% for both Yunda and Shentong, and 8.7% for SF Express [4] Air Transportation - The air travel sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in passenger transport volume in June 2025 [52] - Major airlines are projected to improve their performance in Q2 2025 due to better supply-demand dynamics and lower oil prices [8] Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is anticipated to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment, with a focus on crude oil transportation [16] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 27.8% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the bulk shipping market [11][68] - Container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight increase in cargo volume but a decrease in container throughput [81] Road and Rail - In June 2025, road freight volume increased by 2.86% year-on-year, while rail freight volume rose by 7.36% [45] - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with a slight increase in freight truck traffic [14] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics are expected to benefit from strategic transformations and improved profitability [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [12] Core Insights - The report reviews the regulatory policies and effects of irrational competition in the express delivery industry in 2021, aiming to forecast the potential impacts of the current "anti-involution" measures on the industry [2][7] - In 2021, under the "common prosperity" initiative, regulations focused on "protecting the legal rights of couriers," leading to a significant recovery in industry profitability and stock prices after major express delivery companies announced a network-wide fee increase [2][7] - Looking ahead to 2025, the report anticipates a decline in single-package profits and suggests that measures such as price guidance in grain-producing areas and curbing "punitive management" could effectively transition companies from price wars to value competition [2][7] Summary by Sections Regulatory Review of 2021 - The report highlights that in 2021, the express delivery industry faced severe irrational competition, prompting regulatory actions to stabilize the market and protect couriers' rights [21][30] - Major express companies raised their fees in September 2021, which helped restore profitability and stock performance [39] Outlook for 2025 - The report indicates that the express delivery industry is experiencing renewed price competition, with average package prices dropping to around 2 yuan, and some areas seeing prices fall below 1 yuan [40][48] - The report emphasizes the need for regulatory measures to ensure fair competition and protect couriers' rights, suggesting that the industry is at a critical juncture [48] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, and Jitu Express, highlighting potential improvements in profitability and valuation recovery opportunities [2][7][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for SF Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the express delivery sector [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry showed robust performance in the first half of 2025, with a total business volume of 956.4 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.3%. The total revenue reached 7187.8 billion yuan, growing by 10.1% year-on-year [3][5]. - The report highlights that the demand for express delivery is driven by trends such as the increasing volume of small packages, reverse logistics, and the benefits from lower-tier markets. The growth rate of express delivery volume significantly outpaces the growth of retail sales and online retail sales [6]. - Price competition in the industry is intensifying due to the trend of smaller packages and ongoing price wars. However, the report suggests that the intensity of price competition may be controllable due to policy guidance aimed at promoting high-quality development [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In June 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 168.7 billion pieces, with revenue of 1263.2 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.8% and 9.0%, respectively [3]. - For the first half of 2025, the express delivery revenue was 7187.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while the business volume was 956.4 billion pieces, growing by 19.3% [3][5]. Company Performance - In June 2025, SF Express reported a revenue of 199.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The business volume was 14.60 billion pieces, growing by 31.8% year-on-year [4]. - For the first half of 2025, SF Express's revenue was 1091.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, and a business volume of 78.13 billion pieces, reflecting a growth of 25.7% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery sector is currently undervalued, with expectations of continued growth driven by the expanding e-commerce market and new demands from lower-tier markets. It recommends focusing on leading companies in the e-commerce express delivery sector, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, Shentong Express, and Jitu Express, as well as the comprehensive logistics leader SF Express [7].

申通快递股份有限公司 2025 年 6 月经营简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 根据《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第3号—行业信息披露》的有关规定，公司现 披露2025年6月份相关数据信息如下： | 项 目 | 2025年6月 | 同比增长 | | --- | --- | --- | | 快递服务业务收入（亿元） | 43.41 | 10.15% | | 完成业务量（亿票） | 21.84 | 11.14% | | 快递服务单票收入（元） | 1.99 | -1.00% | 证券代码：002468 证券简称：申通快递 公告编号：2025-054 上述快递服务单票收入计算如有差异为四舍五入原因所致。上述数据未经审计，与定期报告 披露的数据之间可能存在差异，请以公司定期报告为准。 特此公告。 申通快递股份有限公司董事会 2025年7月19日 ...

Core Insights - The National Postal Administration conducted a survey to monitor express delivery service quality and promote industry improvement, focusing on customer satisfaction and timely delivery rates for the second quarter of 2025 [1] Group 1: Survey Overview - The survey included nine express delivery brands: Postal Express, SF Express, Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, Shentong Express, JD Express, Debon Express, and Jitu Express [1] - The survey covered 50 cities, including municipalities, provincial capitals, and 19 cities with high express delivery volumes [1] - A total of 9,211 valid samples were collected for customer satisfaction evaluation across five service aspects, while 2.4 million samples were collected for timely delivery testing [1] Group 2: Customer Satisfaction Results - The overall customer satisfaction score for express delivery services in Q2 2025 was 85.1, an increase of 1.3 points year-on-year [2] - SF Express and JD Express received the highest satisfaction scores among brands [3] - Regions with high satisfaction scores included Shanghai, Beijing, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu, all scoring above 86 [3] - Satisfaction scores for order services via unified customer service hotline reached 90.8, up by 2.0 points year-on-year [3] - User satisfaction scores for delivery service timeliness and quality were 86.9 and 86.4, reflecting increases of 4.7 and 1.7 points respectively [3] Group 3: Timeliness and Delivery Rates - The average total time for express delivery services in Q2 2025 was 51.08 hours, a reduction of 1.99 hours year-on-year [4] - Breakdown of average times showed: - Processing at the shipping location: 8.44 hours (up 0.34 hours) - Transportation: 30.98 hours (down 1.44 hours) - Processing at the destination: 8.89 hours (down 0.77 hours) - Delivery: 2.77 hours (down 0.11 hours) [4] - The 72-hour delivery success rate was 86.85%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Postal Express and SF Express had the highest 72-hour delivery success rates among brands [6]

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The shipping industry is expected to see a divergence in freight rates, with crude oil rates softening while refined oil rates are recovering, indicating a potential bottoming out of oil shipping rates during the summer [1] - The current supply-demand dynamics suggest that marginal changes in demand could have a multiplier effect on freight rates, leading to a recommendation for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1] - The container shipping sector is facing pressure on profitability due to ongoing tariff policies and a subdued economic outlook in Europe and the US, with a recommendation to monitor COSCO Shipping Holdings for potential alpha opportunities [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector has entered the peak summer travel season, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 3.1% compared to the previous week, and overall flight volumes reaching 112.3% of 2019 levels [2] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, while the passenger load factor has improved by 1.4 percentage points to 84.1% [2] - Investment recommendations include closely tracking ticket price performance during the summer peak and considering opportunities in airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][5] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy released on July 1 aims to curb excessive competition in the express delivery sector, which is currently characterized by severe price competition [3] - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to significantly reduce costs for leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express, with potential cost savings of approximately 2000 yuan per vehicle per month for SF Express [3][4] - Investment recommendations focus on SF Express due to its strong recovery in revenue growth and cost-saving measures, while also monitoring ZTO Express and Yunda Holdings for potential opportunities [3][5][6] Group 4: Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand and high-dividend sectors, recommending companies with stable operations and controllable risks, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and China Southern Airlines [5] - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of 21.5% for the year, driven by strong demand from e-commerce platforms [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes and the stability of franchisees in the express delivery industry to capitalize on the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics industry [12] Core Insights - The logistics industry is experiencing a "DeepSeek moment" with significant technological breakthroughs across various segments, including branch, trunk, terminal, and management [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of adopting new technologies to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in the express delivery sector [11][28] Summary by Sections Introduction: The Arrival of the "DeepSeek Moment" in the Logistics Industry - The logistics industry is witnessing substantial advancements due to improved algorithm efficiency and rapid technological iterations, leading to significant breakthroughs in various operational segments [7][18] - Key drivers for these advancements include the massive scale of the Chinese express delivery market, intense competition, and high labor cost ratios [28] Branch Segment: The Growth Year for Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - Leading express companies are initiating a surge in unmanned logistics vehicle orders, driven by reduced core component costs and improved algorithm efficiency [8][33] - The monthly operational cost of unmanned logistics vehicles can be as low as 2000 yuan, significantly lower than the average monthly salary of drivers [33][40] Trunk Segment: Smart Assisted Driving Initiates Mass Production - Smart assisted driving trucks are being deployed on a large scale by leading express companies, addressing safety and cost issues in traditional trunk transportation [9][32] - The potential market space for smart trucks is substantial, with projected sales of 1.03 million heavy trucks in 2024 [9] Terminal Segment: Mode Transformation Drives Cost Reduction - Express companies are innovating their terminal operations to reduce costs significantly, with models like direct linking from transfer centers to terminal stations [10][32] - The report highlights that if the direct link ratio reaches 40%, terminal costs could be reduced by 0.12 yuan per package [10] Management Segment: Digital Decision-Making Promotes Cost Reduction - Leading companies are developing industry-specific AI models to enhance management efficiency and reduce operational costs [10][32] - The integration of big data and AI technologies is driving improvements in decision-making and resource utilization [10] Investment Recommendations: Technological Waves Reshape Logistics Costs - The report recommends prioritizing investments in direct logistics companies and leading express firms, as well as components and operators related to unmanned commercial vehicles [11][32] - Companies like SF Express and Aneng Logistics are highlighted as key players benefiting from these technological advancements [11]